climate of despair? the future of u.s. climate policy and global negotiations

8/2/2019 Climate of Despair? The Future of U.S. Climate Policy and Global Negotiations

1/28

Climate & energy PaPer SerieS 2012

Climate of DeSPair?

tHe fUtUre of U.S. Climate PoliCy

anD gloBal negotiationS

nigel PUrviS


2/28

2012 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing

rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States

1744 R Street, NW

Washington, DC 20009

1 202 683 2650

F 1 202 265 1662

E [email protected]

Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at http://www.gmus.org/publications/index.cm. Limited print

copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].

gmf Pp Ss

Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German

Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the

views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].

abu gmfTe German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grantmaking institu-

tion dedicated to promoting better understanding and cooperation between North America and Europe on transatlantic

and global issues. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the transatlantic sphere, by conven-

ing leaders and members o the policy and business communities, by contributing research and analysis on transatlan-

tic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship. In

addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies. Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany

as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In

addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven ofces in Europe: Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara,

Bucharest, and Warsaw. GMF also has smaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.

tsc C Bd i

Tis paper would not have been possible without unding rom the ransatlantic Climate Bridge, an initiative o the German

Ministry or Foreign Aairs to connect and support those working to address the challenges o climate change, energy

security, and economic growth at the local, the state, and the ederal level in the United States and Germany.


3/28

Climate of Despair?

he Future of U.S. Climate Policy and Global Negotiations

Climate & Energy Policy Paper Series

March 2012

N Pv

C Av

T G M F U S

N Pv C Av w G M F U S. SGz . wk wA J. vw G M F U S.

I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

D G N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

A A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


4/28

Climate of Despair? 1

Introduction

T w , w w

8

w w

w. , ,

w vw -

,

, ,

M E, A,

w, w

C, F, U S, j

. D ,

w w .

Y w -

v

. N, v

3

. M

-

w -

U

S.

I I k w -

w w . A

v ,

, w w A A

w

w k I

, w , w

. I U S

w ,

w . W Nv

w U.S. j, U.S. k v

w W

H C, w

P O

R v.


5/28


Drifting Global Negotiations

1

The combined glob

mitigation effort is

expected to be less

half of what the wo

needs to stay within

2C.

I D , w

D, S A w

. E-

U , C H,

k. O v

, j

k . W

k k D ,

I x

99 , k w D .

The Growing Emissions Gap

O j ,

.

M C

9 -

w

C.3I Nv ,

U N Ev P (UNEP)

j w

w . A v

E U H H Bk UN Ck - E , The Economic Times, .., ://../w///----k----k/-w/764.. F Hv, D k: Hw C H GC A C D, The Guardian, D, , . Ev, ://www...k/v-

////----k.3 S v v w .5C. I j v - . M C . I C, w z[] vw w C. C A,D 8, 9.

UNEP F .

4

w w w

w ,

x

w w w C. x

w x k

.

Waiting for Godot?5

F w ,

U N (w v -

v ) , . I

,

W H.6

Dv

, v w

, , wk

v w w

. M ( W E

) v

( w) v v v

,

, . I v

, w ,

997 K .

Cv, vv v

. A , w v

j : ) w

jv , )

4 E w C P k B U UNEP R. E w C P C C 4 UNEP . UNEP,B E G M -D D

- UNEP (UNEP, Nv ), ://www../w-/.xDID=659AID=8955.5 A S Bk, w - w v , w v .6 U.S. P Ww W v v k . vw , w G G W F H.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cmshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/11/connie-hedegaard-durban-climate-talkshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/11/connie-hedegaard-durban-climate-talkshttp://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2659&ArticleID=8955http://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2659&ArticleID=8955http://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2659&ArticleID=8955http://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2659&ArticleID=8955http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/11/connie-hedegaard-durban-climate-talkshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/11/connie-hedegaard-durban-climate-talkshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cmshttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/european-union-hails-historic-breakthrough-at-un-climate-talks/articleshow/11071604.cms


6/28

The German Marshall Fund of the United States4

- v , 3)

v , , ,

w, 4)

v

( w) . W

v -

k , w

v -

v ,

, wk v,

v. w

w ,, v, v

E C w

E.

Hv v W

,

, - w v

. A w ,

-q w

v -

. A ,

v-

v , -

-. F, v

w own

other.

wk ,

.

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

AnnualGlo

balGHGEmissions

(billionmetrictonsCO2e/year)

Emissions without Copenhagen Pledges Emissions with Copenhagen Pledges 2C Pathway Range

Figure 1: Growing Gap in Global Emissions

Source: UNEP


7/28


S v v . M

w w UN

-

w ( )

v .

v .

I w 93

,

. R q

q

v v ,

- . , , k

.

Ev w ,

. I

99, v U N F-

wk Cv C C (UNFCCC)

. U

,

v

, ,

99 v .I, v

.7 .

.7

I ,

w 997 K P w w

. Y,

K v

C, I,

w w w . F

, U S -

. Ev v

K

. C K ww

7 P 99 CO, . E- k - . E v OECD. W R I, C A I- , F , , ://.w./.

. R, Uk, v A - K q x

w w . A

q, 4

99 v.8

M j

v . N-

7 B w

9 C. Y,

,

C w

, w

x w k.

D k ,

. K P

w. E k

8

w 99 v . J

v k

k -

. A,

. G

v w

w.

w K C,

w w w

v k

v. H x

.

M , wv,

v

. I ,

UN v

. UN -

wk, , z

w wk

8 I.
http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/


8/28


w k . 9 C-

C w

G 9,

x.

I k

k v k .

A k

, , 8-

q. ,

,

. W v -v

GDP

w w

v.9

F

v, w .

Durban and Beyond

A v, E

D . W

D ( P

A) k 6

w. I , , UNFCCC 5, w

.

( w )

, v

3. N

w w

w P x

-

w C v .

F v, D -

w .J

w -

9 .6 99 8. - k - . I.

w q k .I, UNFCCC v

q ,

. F, C I w

K v

, v. S,

w

, w

.

B D x

v-. I D, C I

w -

v v .

k w w w v v-

995, w

- B v

K P. ,

-v , ,

w

-

. , D,

v w -

. W C j -

w v

- G 77, D j

v

v

w .

U.S. EU w -

, w v

, k Dx C I v -

w ,

After 20 years of

climate diplomacy,

global emissions are

still rising.


9/28


q .

F, C , X

Z,

w C w

w

.11

W C w

, C

v

. I , D

x w x. w k

E -

, E w j KP v U

S, J, R, C w . I

x, D v

.

Hwv, D k

v. C . F,

C I v j

D,

, k

v v w -

. I, C I q -D UNFCCC

x -

v w

x

v . w

L F J Ck, D k CP Nw C C I AN, ClimateWire, D , , ://www.w.//w////. L F, G G C U.S. I Bk

C C D, ClimateWire, D 5, , ://www.w.//w///5/ .

L F, I H Bk D P; PN W C k A, ClimateWire, M8, , ://www.w./w//3/8/v/=+; L F, CJ I Ak I N C EF, Climate, M 9, , ://www.w./w//3/9/v/7=+.

w . C w , S W, , wk

, wk

v v v-

w .3 I

, w N D, P

M S C C C,

w

I v w D -

w

q j .4 B

C I

, w v w

v

5 . O -

w ,

w

w D .

S, D , EU

w , j -

w v

. M E v

v w C 9

w

. I ,

x v . Fw

D, j E w

w v -

. W

w

D k

,

3 L F, C C N S Dk D N Rv K I, ClimateWire, J ,, ://www.w./w////v/5=++.

4 L F, U.S. I O F k C O, ClimateWire, F 5,, ://www.w./w///5/v/6=+.
http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/12/1http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/12/1http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/05/1http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/05/1http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/08/archive/2?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/08/archive/2?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/09/archive/7?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/09/archive/7?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/01/12/archive/5?terms=india+negotiator+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/01/12/archive/5?terms=india+negotiator+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/02/15/archive/6?terms=india+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/02/15/archive/6?terms=india+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/02/15/archive/6?terms=india+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/02/15/archive/6?terms=india+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/01/12/archive/5?terms=india+negotiator+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/01/12/archive/5?terms=india+negotiator+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/09/archive/7?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/09/archive/7?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/08/archive/2?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2012/03/08/archive/2?terms=china+durbanhttp://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/05/1http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/05/1http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/12/1http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/12/12/1


10/28


x q v

w k

. w K P

995, x,

5. B k,

wk

. N, k

w k

9

.

, D v

v v-

- . A wk -

, v ,

w v . C,

I, U S, wk

w

. Mv,

w K

P , w -

-

q. I , k

F w -

w w k

k .5 vx w w

v own

-w - -

5 A v w GMF Rk C D . I v .

Figure 2: International Climate Policy Preferences: The International Arrangements Nations

Want Applied to Themselves

United States,

China, India

EuropeanUnion

Mexico,Korea

Brazil, South

Africa,

IndonesiaCenter of

Gravity

Japan

Top Down Target Setting(National targets negotiated internationally based on global goals)

Bottom Up Target Setting(National targets set unilaterally based on domestic politics)

Weak

Accountability(Limited institutions and

noncompliance consequences)

Strong

Accountability(Expansive institutions and

noncompliance consequences)


11/28


Climate talks shoul

continue, and with

the greatest possib

speed and seriousn

but we must not all

them to dominate o

imagination abouthow to deliver clima

solutions.

v - w w -

w . z

x w w q

w own

j ,

, k

q . E

w k- w z

w

. w

w j

w w - w v

v q .

v

j w . I 9, x, J

w x E

. B

v

w, J v

k . I -D , J

- . I

wk .

A j , E x-

v -v -

w -

wk. A,

w

-D k.

v k j

w w w

w w v

w v q . v

q w D w

w

v v .

Lk w v j w v

k w

v v

. - , x,

w v -

w

. I , w -

v z w v

, v ,

v v-

. N v x w -

v ,

w G C F. B

q -

, k 5 v

v v -

. -

, v x j

, w

.

A , w v w . W

, , w

v x v x w

v C w

, v.

U

N ,

, w-

, v v k

. C wk w v

k

- , . B v

UN k k


12/28


- - w v . C k

, w

, w w -

w v

.


13/28


Ex k w w j

, .

U S,

, . U S

. I

w, U.S. v,

v , k w

v-

. Cv w

w (C -) k v

U S .

w v

E (

)

U S. N U.S. S

w

, P Bk O

v k

v

. I , I x

v.

I D 9, C

, P O U

S w 7

w 5 v . W

U S ,

P O j

,

G W. B. I 8, P B w

U.S. w 5, w 6.5

v 5 v.16

3.5

6 B - U.S. EI A A E Ok 8.E I A, A E Ok8, J 8, ://www..v//v/8/_..

w B O , O ,

v E 9

w 99 v ,

E w 8 w

99 v K

P. W C, P O

j w

z v

$ v

, w $

.

, v w

U S k

. I ,

w z

v v-

. I , .

U S w

, U S

v v

.

w x w U.S. x , v

P O C .

Myth of U.S. Inaction

I , U

S w w -

, C

.

.

U S w C w j w

w v x . J ,

U.S. v

j v . w

j U.S. - -

America Adrift

2

The United States

appears to be drifti

toward lower emiss

potentially near the

range of its Copenh

pledge.
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/aeoref_tab.htmlhttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/aeoref_tab.htmlhttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/aeoref_tab.htmlhttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/aeoref_tab.html


14/28


5 v.18

C

w v, -

U.S. .4

5 , v - w

7 C.

I w,

w U S w

v ( w ),

x w W j

8 E NS v EIAAEO . S ://www..v//v//x..

Figure 3a1

w S Gz C Av.

4,500

4,700

4,900

5,100

5,300

5,500

5,700

5,900

6,100

2005 2010 2015 2020

Time(Years)

Copenhagen BAU (2009)

Current BAU (2012)

With Expected

Policy Drivers

With PossiblePolicy Drivers

U.S. CopenhagenPledge

AnnualEnergy-RelatedGreenhou

seGasEmissions(MtCO2e/yr)

7.5 w 5v .

v

v,

x ,

x w

, w

,

w

w , C ,

.

,

C BAU F

3, U S

k v 4

C .

,

wv, v

w

x v U.S.

w .

F, w -

v

O

x w, x,

.3

.7 S, U.S. C w

x x v, x , -

-

, .6

7 D Bw, A P, M W, RE P Sv C Fx GHGS S S, RFF Discussion Paper, .3 (J ), ://www../RFF/D/RFF-DP--3..

These policies could

reduce U.S. emissions

by 10.4 percent of

2005 emissions, over

three-fifths of the

way to the 17 percent

reduction pledge fromCopenhagen.

Source: EIA, Burtraw et al 2011, NEPI
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo11/index.cfmhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo11/index.cfmhttp://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-11-30.pdfhttp://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-11-30.pdfhttp://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-11-30.pdfhttp://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-11-30.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo11/index.cfmhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo11/index.cfm


15/28


Figure 3b1

w S Gz C Av.

Existing

Drivers

-10.4%

-7.5%

Economic recession

Large shale gas

discoveries

High oil prices

Improvements in

technology

New automobile

regulations

California ETS (AB 32)

Other

Expected Possible

Non-Policy

Uncertainty

1. Regulation of Carbon

Dioxide from Coal

Power Plants

2. Extension of existing

Energy Policies

3. Clean Energy Portfolio

Standard

4. Geothermal heat

pumps

5. Technological

development

6. E conomic growth rate

7. Oil price

-15.5%

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(7)

(6)

(5)

Policy Drivers

-1.5%

U.S.Copenhagen

Pledge( -17%)

U.S.Emissionsin

2005

Low natural gas prices

Coal plant retirements

k wk x

. v U

S w 5

,

v

x

U S B -

. Mv, v w 9 --

U.S. S w v q U

S domestically. W w

7 w 5 v ,

w v v

j v k.19

A v-

v U S v

C . S

C w C E S-

(CES) U.S.

w ,

P O

v ,

U.S.

.

S,

v v

5

. I , w

U.S. 5.5 -

v 5.

I ,

v

v . F

x -

v

, k-

w U.S.

83

, x

(q v

w w I)

9 E I A, E Mk

E I H.R. 454, A C E S A 9 (E I A,A 9), ://www..v//v/454//(9)5..

A Kk ., Toward a New National Energy Policy:Assessing the Options (N E P I R F, Nv ), ://.//RFF_R/RFF-NEPI-F-R-F-Nv-..

The U.S. political

outlook for aggress

long-term climate

action remains utte

depressing.

Source: EIA, Burtraw et al 2011, NEPI
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hr2454/pdf/sroiaf(2009)05.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hr2454/pdf/sroiaf(2009)05.pdfhttp://nepinstitute.org/get/RFF_Reports/RFF-NEPI-Full-Report-Final-Nov-2010.pdfhttp://nepinstitute.org/get/RFF_Reports/RFF-NEPI-Full-Report-Final-Nov-2010.pdfhttp://nepinstitute.org/get/RFF_Reports/RFF-NEPI-Full-Report-Final-Nov-2010.pdfhttp://nepinstitute.org/get/RFF_Reports/RFF-NEPI-Full-Report-Final-Nov-2010.pdfhttp://nepinstitute.org/get/RFF_Reports/RFF-NEPI-Full-Report-Final-Nov-2010.pdfhttp://nepinstitute.org/get/RFF_Reports/RFF-NEPI-Full-Report-Final-Nov-2010.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hr2454/pdf/sroiaf(2009)05.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hr2454/pdf/sroiaf(2009)05.pdf


16/28


kk 7 .

21

, w

w , w U.S. 8.9

w 5 .22

C

w v ,

v w U.S. -

4 w 5 -

.

w F 3

3. F 3 j

U.S. E- E 9

E I A (EIA), C. x

w j U.S. -

EIA q

j U.S.

x v -

C .

w F 3 w z

v, -v

v v.

w w

U.S. , w w

x v -.

I, -

v v. W k, U.S.

E H, Lw Gw, H O P v EIA AEO . H - v, w , q , , w w , w, w . Lw E Gw GDP w v . , w .7 .

H O P -OECD w , $ 35. S ://www..v//v//x.. k w v w k v. F v, x, w k w, w w v v-.

w qk w. R, v vv

v -

w

U.S. w. I, U

S w w -

j w

C . W U.S. v

, w

j w U

S w -

.

The Great Unraveling

Ev U.S. k

,

x,

U.S. k v, -

.

w j

w w w

B . I 8,

vv

R S J

MC, R v,

v R U.S.

S

. , w

vw vv R

w j w D

k w k .

I ,

v

. Hw , , w U.S.

N A S, v P L 9

v U.S. v q-

, w qv
http://see%20http//www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo11/index.cfmhttp://see%20http//www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo11/index.cfm


17/28


Shockingly, it is no

longer politically

acceptable for

conservative U.S.

politicians to suppo

climate policies or

publicly accept basclimate science.

, v, k.3

, U.S.

. Sk,

vv U.S. -

. N w

v w

R P

P O Nv -

. Ov ,

j R v v

v v

w. A w v v

x. A vv

w U.S. -

. I, v

.

M R, x, vw

--

w w w v

M. k H

Rv, Nw G, w

v

w Sk H N P,

D ,

Iv w .4 R-

, , v

O w-

vw

w

U.S. . P

vv

Gv R Believe in America

3 N A, S Ev C CU N A R E BA I, News from the National Academies, M9, , ://www8../w/w-.xRID=59.4 Fx Nw F, D 3, .

j w. , U S w

- . Dv

w

.5

k

w 6 .

F, j R -

w w

, vv C. I

, z National

Journalvw 65 R vw. O -

w w

. A w

q, w

w -

.

, k

. P O

S U .

I ,

C -

. C

P -- ,

,

w, v

E Ev.6 F

w

U.S. ,

k v

U.S. w. W U.S.

,

v 5 M R, Believe In America: Mitt Romneys Plan for Jobsand Economic Growth, , 93, ://.//-vw//9/v-----j---w.6 P O R E Ev,Obama for America, .., ://www.k.//v.
http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=05192010http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=05192010http://mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/09/believe-america-mitt-romneys-plan-jobs-and-economic-growthhttp://mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/09/believe-america-mitt-romneys-plan-jobs-and-economic-growthhttp://mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/09/believe-america-mitt-romneys-plan-jobs-and-economic-growthhttp://www.barackobama.com/record/environmenthttp://www.barackobama.com/record/environmenthttp://www.barackobama.com/record/environmenthttp://www.barackobama.com/record/environmenthttp://mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/09/believe-america-mitt-romneys-plan-jobs-and-economic-growthhttp://mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/09/believe-america-mitt-romneys-plan-jobs-and-economic-growthhttp://mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/09/believe-america-mitt-romneys-plan-jobs-and-economic-growthhttp://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=05192010http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=05192010


18/28


w 4 - 9.27

Polarizing Forces

q, , w W

U.S.

, w w

, v j w

S

j k A-

, w

-v ( - C-

, w U.K.

v w

k w). x

w. A w

v w

, w v w

w j w v w.

A Pw , v , w

w 63% , w

k 77% 57%

9. S, v w v .

A Pw ,

w v w , 6%

v , w

66% 9, 58% .8

(

w E -

7 D F, C Cv w A , D C, J 3, , ://www../-w///-v-.

8 Pw R C P P, MM R S Ev W, D ,, ://www.-.//-/--%G%w%..

w.

29

) I, U.S. w

5 . A w

(6 ) -

997 (w K P

w ) w -

7.30

A, w , wk

, U.S.

w, A vw

w

. B E w. A G M

F , x,

k w

U S E .31

Y , v U.S.

, w v

z v

. I w.

Misleading Media

A k

U.S. . F, -

( v

v jv ),

vw ,

v q w

v v

.

9 Sw Pk, I: P M W P A C C, C

F R - I, .., ://../k///3/--w-----/.3 Kk, A P O C C I I V C P E-.3 , G M F, ://...5-3.w-.wk./_=375.

Depending on where

they get their news,

Americans hear

about and believe

very different climate

realities.
http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/01/climate-coverage-2011http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/01/climate-coverage-2011http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/12-1-11%20Global%20warming%20release.pdfhttp://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/12-1-11%20Global%20warming%20release.pdfhttp://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/11/30/public-more-willing-than-politicians-to-address-climate-change/http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/11/30/public-more-willing-than-politicians-to-address-climate-change/http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/11/30/public-more-willing-than-politicians-to-address-climate-change/http://trends.gmfus.org.php5-23.dfw1-2.websitetestlink.com/?page_id=3175http://trends.gmfus.org.php5-23.dfw1-2.websitetestlink.com/?page_id=3175http://trends.gmfus.org.php5-23.dfw1-2.websitetestlink.com/?page_id=3175http://trends.gmfus.org.php5-23.dfw1-2.websitetestlink.com/?page_id=3175http://trends.gmfus.org.php5-23.dfw1-2.websitetestlink.com/?page_id=3175http://trends.gmfus.org.php5-23.dfw1-2.websitetestlink.com/?page_id=3175http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/11/30/public-more-willing-than-politicians-to-address-climate-change/http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/11/30/public-more-willing-than-politicians-to-address-climate-change/http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2011/11/30/public-more-willing-than-politicians-to-address-climate-change/http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/12-1-11%20Global%20warming%20release.pdfhttp://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/12-1-11%20Global%20warming%20release.pdfhttp://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/01/climate-coverage-2011http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2012/01/climate-coverage-2011


19/28


J w , w -

. E w, U.S.

v

.

S, w w,

A v v

. w

U.S.

. W v Aw w

(k W Ck), w v

-w -w . L

w

New York Times MSNBC, w

.

Cvv, , w Fx Nw

, Wall Street Journal,

R L w, w

. O

Fx Nw w

v , k

, k

CNN MSNBC.32

L

vv -

, w, x,

Fx Nw vw k

jv P

O .33

Cvv

w

3 L F ., C C: N

I G W Cv Fx Nw, CNN, MSNBC, I J P/P (Nv, ), ://j../////3/946454..33 I.; C M, Fx Nw Vw A M M-: A Sv S Av Pv I VJ Sw!, Nv , , ://k./////374434/x-w-vw---j-w/.

, , , w . I v,

A x w

.

Party Identification

P z ,

A v-

, Hw .

A ,

v D.

A G, D P - v 99

, w

k (Earth in the Balance)

v (An Inconvenient Truth) .

A w, k N P Pz

O wk, v

w- Sv Hw,

v. D P 4 -

, J K,

U.S. S. A w

8, P O

v .

I w ,

, w w ,

R-

v v

. A

z V P G

v ,

, . M

U S

w D P.

Rise of the Tea Party

P z

w ,
http://hij.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/10/13/1940161211425410.abstracthttp://hij.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/10/13/1940161211425410.abstracthttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/22/374434/fox-news-viewers-misinformed-study-jon-stewart/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/22/374434/fox-news-viewers-misinformed-study-jon-stewart/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/22/374434/fox-news-viewers-misinformed-study-jon-stewart/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/22/374434/fox-news-viewers-misinformed-study-jon-stewart/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/22/374434/fox-news-viewers-misinformed-study-jon-stewart/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/11/22/374434/fox-news-viewers-misinformed-study-jon-stewart/http://hij.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/10/13/1940161211425410.abstracthttp://hij.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/10/13/1940161211425410.abstract


20/28


Climate policy seems

to symbolize all that

is wrong with the

Obama administration

in the eyes of staunch

conservatives and to

pitomize everything theTea Party opposes.

v v vv v

w v P

vv v

k 9. v v-

v v. B

9, -

. Nw

q z j k

x q -

-

vv. I,

vv . w

v-

vv -

.

vv ,

v. A Y Uv

j P v

w ( j 3

R w), w

v v -

, j P

w.

I,

P v.

C z w

w O

vv z v

P

, w

j, v

, U.S. v U N .

Campaign Contributions

M U.S.

. I 8, w

v 3 3 U.S. S

397 46 U.S. H R-v.34

R w v-

wk v

. Av w

x xv U.S. k.

, H

$. v

$6.5 ,

. O k

v -

q .

35

I , v

j v $5 -

, , .36

D

,

$76 .37

M 75

w R-

, v j

. A

w D

w .Av- ,

, $

.38

I wk U.S.

S C Citizens United

, w w w

,

w v

w. F

34 O S, M W P 9 C- R P U.S. E Ev, O S B,.., ://www../w/8//-w-w--..35 I.36 O S, Ev, .., ://www..//.=Q.37 O S, E/N R, .., ://www..//.=E.38 O S, Av E P Sv,.., ://www..//.=E5.
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/11/money-wins-white-house-and.htmlhttp://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/11/money-wins-white-house-and.htmlhttp://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Q11http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Q11http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Ehttp://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Ehttp://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=E1500http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=E1500http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=E1500http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=E1500http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Ehttp://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Ehttp://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Q11http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=Q11http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/11/money-wins-white-house-and.htmlhttp://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/11/money-wins-white-house-and.html


21/28


v v v

.

Lobbying

A

, 9, -v

$.4

v x

w 8.39

I ,

$75

,

v -. Ov,

v $4 .40

O

, Exx M, $7.4

9 v

.41

-- . I ,

v v-

K XL C $6

. Ev

$ .42

I v , w vv v w

w,

w wk,

. x x

w U

S k , w

w

.

39 O S, Ev.4 Ev Mk, P-Ev G O,O B Ov C C L, O

S B, A 3, , ://www../w//8/-v--w-. ;O S, E/N R.4 Mk, P-Ev G O, O B Ov C C L.4 J I, K XL P Bk Dw O- I L E, J , , ://k-./////4734/k-x--k-w----/.

Obama vs. the Alternative

Ov, w j U.S.

v vw .

I , P O w

)

x (w

v ), )

w w

U.S. w , 3)

x

v v RD w x ,

4) v

w v k , 5) w

w

j . A, w

w

v v

C . Nv, -

w

v -.

A R , , w k

k w

) k w ,) w , 3)

k v v

. A, R

w k 4) x

qk P

O 5) w v

w v, vw

j

w .

w , -

, .

D , v w w

R

U.S. v

O . I R

w
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/08/pro-environment-groups-were-outmatc.htmlhttp://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/08/pro-environment-groups-were-outmatc.htmlhttp://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/01/20/407340/keystone-xl-pipeline-backers-dwarfed-opponents-in-lobbying-efforts/http://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/01/20/407340/keystone-xl-pipeline-backers-dwarfed-opponents-in-lobbying-efforts/http://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/01/20/407340/keystone-xl-pipeline-backers-dwarfed-opponents-in-lobbying-efforts/http://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/01/20/407340/keystone-xl-pipeline-backers-dwarfed-opponents-in-lobbying-efforts/http://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/01/20/407340/keystone-xl-pipeline-backers-dwarfed-opponents-in-lobbying-efforts/http://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/01/20/407340/keystone-xl-pipeline-backers-dwarfed-opponents-in-lobbying-efforts/http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/08/pro-environment-groups-were-outmatc.htmlhttp://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/08/pro-environment-groups-were-outmatc.html


22/28


U.S. Tax Reform, Deficits and Climate Policy

In the most likely scenario, post-2012 elections, Washington will fail to take decisive action on climate

change. One can imagine, however, a plausible scenario in which a major breakthrough occurs.

One fairly certain fact is that a breakthrough will not come in the form of a cap-and-trade law of the type

considered in 2009. The cap-and-trade approach was not only opposed but vilified by enough conservatives

and moderates in the Senate that the 60-vote supermajority needed to overcome a filibuster would prove

impossible to achieve even if Democrats won big in the November election. The main cause: there are too

many coal state senators and the cap-and-trade policy could not overcome their opposition. Whats more, the

cap-and-trade debate seems to have taken all major climate policy off the table for the next few years. This

means that in 2013 and immediately beyond legislative progress on climate change can only really occur via

other issues.

Fortunately, there are two looming legislative issues that could potentially yield substantial climate dividends.In 2011, political brinksmanship over the U.S. debt ceiling and corresponding worries that the United States

might default on its debt obligations revealed growing political concern about rising U.S. budget deficits.

The U.S. deficit has exceeded $1 trillion dollars for the past three years and, absent major policy reform, is

expected to grow further, fueled by the rising cost of government-paid medical care and social security and

reduced revenues from slower than expected economic growth, as shown in Figure 4. The alternative fiscal

scenario shown represents the best prediction of the Congressional Budget Office. A number of influential

policymakers and opinion leaders see 2013 as a moment when the president and Congress could craft a

major budget and entitlement program overhaul to reduce future spending and/or increase government

revenue.

Figure 4: Projected Federal Budget Deficits

Even more interestingly, in 2013 both political parties will be looking for ways to reform the federal tax code

to accelerate Americas anemic economic growth, which would in turn reduce unemployment and the deficit.

To spur growth, many economists recommend reducing taxes on things that promote growth (such as hard

work and investment) and increasing taxes on things society wants to discourage (such as pollution and

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Extended-Baseline Scenario

Alternative Fiscal Scenario

Actual Projected

Source: Congressional Budget Ofce. 2011. Long-term Budget Outlook. Congressional Budget Ofce. http://www.cbo.

gov/ftpdocs/122xx/doc12212/06-21-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf.


23/28


excessive consumption). More specifically, many conservatives and major U.S. companies support reducing

the taxes corporations pay on their profits as the United States has one of the highest in the OECD. In reality,

U.S. companies pay some of the lowest effective tax rates because many corporations move profits offshore

and take advantage of various loopholes in the U.S. tax code. Simplifying the U.S. tax code and reducing U.S.

corporate tax rates, however, might encourage multinational companies to repatriate profits and economic

activity to the United States (where they would provide new government revenue from remaining corporate

taxes). President Obama has signaled his willingness to consider lower corporate taxes as part of a broader

tax reform law.1 A similar dynamic might also bring about even more important reforms to individual income

taxes, which have a far larger impact on growth and the deficit, but maybe much harder to get through

Congress.

Combining these factors, one can imagine a compromise tax reform law that would introduce a modest

U.S. carbon tax (at say $15-20 a ton of CO2) as part of a far broader package that reigned in entitlement

programs and other social welfare spending, reduced growth-inhibiting taxes on labor, investments, and

corporate income, and shrank the U.S. budget deficit. If structured correctly, some of the companies that

lobbied hardest against the cap-and-trade bill in 2009 might welcome this approach (because they are most

affected by high corporate tax rates, even if they work hard to avoid paying those rates, and because they

value regulatory certainty). As an example, a staunch opponent of cap-and-trade, Exxon Mobil, has already

stated publicly that it is not opposed to a carbon tax and its investment decisions assume something akin to

a carbon tax will be in place by 2020. Privately, at least some conservative lawmakers concede that a carbon

tax might be a small price to pay for fundamental tax reform. Importantly, the U.S. public would not see tax

reform as climate policy. Indeed, relative to other changes to entitlement programs, payroll tax rates and the

like in such a bill, the carbon provisions would arguably be secondary or even tertiary for most voters. And

even then, conservatives and progressives alike could support those provisions as essential to rid the United

States of its addiction to imported oil, an objective that enjoys broad public support.

In addition to the significant reductions in U.S. emissions, such a grand bargain could greatly benefit the

U.S. economy. Introducing a $33 carbon tax and reducing less efficient personal income taxes in a budget-

neutral manner would add $4.5 billion per year to the U.S. economy.2 Studies of the impact of Europeanclimate policies found positive GDP impacts in almost every country in Europe where it was introduced.3 This

additional benefit, translated into additional jobs, higher wages, and faster economic growth, could provide

an additional incentive to bring the two parties together on this issue.

Opinions differ considerably among political commentators in Washington on the likelihood of major tax and

budget reforms in 2013, let alone the chance of any carbon tax being in the mix. The odds are not great.

Regardless, this is the most realistic scenario under which the United States would take a major new step

toward climate leadership anytime soon.

C, O O C C x R 8%. I P R C. W,Moving U.S. Climate Policy Forward: Are Carbon Taxes the Only Good Alternative?, D- P, RFF D P (R F, F ), ://www../P/P/P-D.xPID=47.3 NERI, Uv A ., Competitiveness Effects of Evironmental Tax Reform, 7, ://www..k//__..
http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=21470http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=21470http://www2.dmu.dk/cometr/cometr_summary_report.pdfhttp://www2.dmu.dk/cometr/cometr_summary_report.pdfhttp://www2.dmu.dk/cometr/cometr_summary_report.pdfhttp://www2.dmu.dk/cometr/cometr_summary_report.pdfhttp://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=21470http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=21470


24/28


, D w R w

w , w w R

w P O

. S Nx---C

, -

vv - k R Nx

k w C

97.43

S, k vv, -

w -k v U

S w .

C M R, Nw G, RkS, R P

R w

Nx P

k k

w Gv R ,

,

v

w- . Gv

R, , ,

, k w

, ,

k v- . H

w U

S

, U.S.

k, U S

w. O ,

w

U S ,

w v k

v .

U, / w k. I

43 , R Nx w - v -. S, w P Nx 97 - w C v Bj C MZ, w Nx .

- , Nx

C M R.

Uk P Nx, Gv R

vv w

vv v

vv , w w

R 8

,

v

. B v

, P

R w vv. I , w -

, P R w -

- w,

v vv

P w

, xz

,

z k vv

w w

6. W Gv R -

, -

. w v , ,

, v

.

Gv v, E

w x , , P

R w v w

- .

R v S, G, P

v vv

Nx. Rk S jk .44 R P

x.45 Nw G

44 Aw Sk, Rk S v .M N Nwk.45 Fx B Nw, Nv 4, 9.


25/28


z k:Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less.46

November 2012 and Beyond

Nv -

, ,

w. B , w

v q w.

I v v

wk . P w v

P O

. A,

z wk . N

Fk D. Rv w w

v 7. .47

A , U.S. j w 8.3

. B

P Rv w

w 9

. V kw -

w v.

wk P O

v. I ,

w.

C C

. C w U.S.

v - . O 3

A v C

j.48

Y, v v

v,

j k w -

, . N, R

x U.S. S

46

Nw G, V H, D H, D Nw, P L(8)47 N Sv, O M Ix RBw U R-E, FvE, J, , ://v...//6//---x--w-----/.48 C - J R, .., ://www../CJ..

vv -

.

D v

U.S. , v

U.S.

3 . M U.S.

x

v v / j

H S. P O

k w andv

j C. A E-

k w k. M k, P-

O w w R

w C,

, orP O w v

Nv R w k

j S H.

U.S. v

v v v,

, k, . ,

S

w x-

v v v,

j U.S. . -

w, ,

,

j . k

v k -

w

.

, , w

j w W-

, DC.

W ,

, U S w

, w

President Obama

and conservatives

are worlds apart on

climate policy. Pres

Obama intends to u

regulation and fisca

policy to promote thclean energy revolu

his counterparts

care far more abou

expanding fossil fu

production and low

energy prices. In th

near-term, however

the inertia dealt int

the U.S. political an

economic system w

probably keep U.S.emissions declining

matter what happe

November.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/http://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htmhttp://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htmhttp://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htmhttp://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htmhttp://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/


26/28


, w -

regardless of the 2012 election outcome.

P O vv w

. P O

v;

x

w . I -,

wv, U.S.

w k U.S.

w Nv.

M k, 3 ,

D R w v wk

w

z v-

w k

x .

-v ,

F 5

x v w U.S.

w

w C

( w).

C, x, w v

v k ,

x v. A, U.S.

F Rv U.S. w

4, . I , , P

R U.S. Ev

P A w w

w .

B

x w, w

D S k

. v

U.S. w w ,

, C

, j C

W H.

I ,

w R D

, P O v

Impact on

Emissions

Easy Difcult Almost No Control

Increase Delay and weaken

slightly greenhouse

gas and other clean

air regulations

Stop new greenhouse gas

regulations

Substantially weaken other

new pollution controls

Substantially weaken new

automobile eff iciency stan-

dards

Improve sluggish economy

Reduce petroleum prices

Overcome local opposition to

coal plants

Stop California and other state

climate initiatives

Decrease rate of technology

innovation

Reduce Enact carbon tax or other

major energy tax reform

Increase petroleum prices

Overcome local opposition to

nuclear plants

Increase rate of clean energy

technology innovation

Figure 5: Near-Term Ability of New President and Congress to Change U.S. Emissions Trajectory


27/28


, . F , w w

Nv. Y w U.S.

, k

v v x w

U.S.

. A v w k

U.S. , k

U.S. k

w w U S

w j

v v x U.S. .

Toward Climate Realpolitik

vw v v

. A -

w -

z q v

w . U S

w

. k

P O,

-, w

w W H .

Y, k

-

. I ,

, k v

x.

E

x w w, v-

v

U S

w. M k, w -

-

,

v w -

. W v w w v ,

, w -

, w -

, v

v v k

v. W k -

, w

w z

v

. W

q x

GMF Climate Realpolitik

(Spring-Summer 2012).


28/28

Off i c e s

Washington Berlin Paris BrusselsBelgrade Ankara Bucharest Warsaw

www.gmu.org