Showdown in Copenhagen

The Climate Negotiations face Reality

Tom AthanasiouEcoEquity

The Right to Development in a Climate Constrained World The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework

AuthorsTom Athansiou (EcoEquity)Sivan Kartha (Stockholm Environment Institute)Paul Baer (EcoEquity)Eric Kemp-Benedict (SEI)

Key CollaboratorsJörg Haas (European Climate Foundation)

Lili Fuhr (Heinrich Boll Foundation)Nelson Muffuh (Christian Aid)

Andrew Pendleton (IPPR)Antonio Hill (Oxfam)

SupportersChristian Aid (UK)Oxfam (International)European Aprodev Network The Heinrich Böll Foundation (Germany) MISTRA Foundation CLIPORE Programme (Sweden)Stockholm Environment Institute (Int’l)Rockefeller Brothers Fund (US)Town Creek Foundation (US)

The Science

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Arctic Sea Ice melting faster than expected

“The sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return. The implications for global climate, as well as Arctic animals and people, are disturbing.” Mark Serreze, NSIDC, Oct. 2007.

2005 2007

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Sea levels rising faster than expectedNile Delta

2000

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Sea levels rising faster than expected

IPCC-AR4: “0.18 – 0.59 m by 2100”Post-AR4: “0.8 to 2.4 m by 2100“ (Hansen: “several meters“)

Nile Delta2000

Nile Delta1 meter sea

level increase

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Global sinks are weakening

Tipping Elements in the Climate System

Even 2ºC risks catastrophic, irreversible impacts The climate crisis demands an emergency mobilization

Lenton et al, 2008

The Emergency Pathway

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Global 2ºC pathways and their risks

The Deep Structure of the Climate Problem

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The deep structure of the climate problem

What kind of climate regime can enable this to happen…?13

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… in the midst of a development crisis?

• 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels

• More than 1.5 billion people without electricity

• More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water

• About 800 million people chronically undernourished

• 2 million children die per year from diarrhea

• 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases

The Deep Structure of the Climate Solution

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UNFCCC: The preamble

“Acknowledging the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”

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A viable climate regime must…• Ensure the rapid mitigation required by an

emergency climate stabilization program

• Support the deep, extensive adaptation programs that will inevitably be needed

• While at the same time safeguarding the right to development

Greenhouse Development Rights

Towards Principle-based Global Differentiation

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The Greenhouse Development Rightsapproach to effort sharing

Define National Obligation (national share of global mitigation and adaptation costs) based on:

Capacity: resources to pay w/o sacrificing necessities We use income, excluding income below the $20/day ($7,500/year, PPP) development threshold

Responsibility: contribution to climate change We use cumulative CO2 emissions, excluding “subsistence” emissions (i.e., emissions corresponding to consumption below the development threshold)

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Income and Capacity: showing projected national income distributions in 2010, and capacity in green

Emissions vs. Responsibility Cumulative fossil CO2 (since 1990) showing portion

considered “responsibility”

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National obligations based on capacity and responsibility

2010 2020 2030

Population (% of global)

GDP per capita($US PPP)

Capacity (% of global)

Responsibility (% of global)

RCI(% of

global)

RCI (% of

global)

RCI (% of

global)

EU 27 7.3 30,472 28.8 22.6 25.7 22.9 19.6

- EU 15 5.8 33,754 26.1 19.8 22.9 19.9 16.7

- EU +12 1.5 17,708 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0

United States 4.5 45,640 29.7 36.4 33.1 29.1 25.5

Australia 0.31 33,879 1.68 1.52 1.39

Japan 1.9 33,422 8.3 7.3 7.8 6.6 5.5

Russia 2.0 15,031 2.7 4.9 3.8 4.3 4.6

China 19.7 5,899 5.8 5.2 5.5 10.4 15.2

India 17.2 2,818 0.66 0.30 0.48 1.18 2.34

South Africa 0.7 10,117 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2

Mexico 1.6 12,408 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5

LDCs 11.7 1,274 0.11 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.12

Annex I 18.7 30,924 75.8 78.0 77 69 61

Non-Annex I 81.3 5,096 24.2 22.0 23 31 39

High Income 15.5 36,488 76.9 77.9 77 69 61

Middle Income 63.3 6,226 22.9 21.9 22 30 38

Low Income 21.2 1,599 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5

World 100 9,929 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

Steps Towards a Fair and Adequate

Global Accord

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The Framework ConventionThe North pays the full incremental costs of the climate transition

Annex 2 is to “provide such financial resources, including for the transfer of technology, needed by the developing country Parties to meet the agreed full incremental costs of implementing measures” (UNFCCC, Art. 4.3)

These include full incremental costs associated with the “development, application and diffusion, including transfer, of technologies, practices and processes to control greenhouse gas emissions” and the formulation and implementation of “national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change”. (UNFCCC, Art. 4.1)

“The extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitments under the Convention will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties.” (UNFCCC, Art. 4.7)

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The Bali Action Plan“To launch a comprehensive process to enable the full,

effective and sustained implementation of the Convention ...

1(b)(i) Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives, by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the comparability of efforts among them, taking into account differences in their national circumstances;

1(b)(ii) Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner;”

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Allocating global mitigation obligationsamong countries according to their “RCI”

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Copenhagen phase - to 2017

After 2017 - Global burden sharing

National / Regional Examples

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Implications for United States

US mitigation obligation amounts to a reduction target exceeding 100% after ~2025 (“negative emission allocation”).

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Implications for United States

Here, physical domestic reductions (~25% below 1990 by 2020) are only part of the total US obligation. The rest would be met internationally.

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Implications for China中国的测算结果

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A large fraction of China's reduction, (and most of the reductions in the South) are driven by industrialized country reduction commitments.

Implications for China中国的测算结果

Financial Implications

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What are the costs?

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Source Annual Cost (billions)

Notes

AdaptationWorld Bank (2006) $9 - 41 Costs to mainstream adaptation in

development aidOxfam International (2007) > $50 Costs of adaptation in developing

countries in immediate term.UNFCCC Secretariat (2007a,b) $49 - 171 Costs of adaptation in 2030

(summarized in Table IX-65, p. 177)UNDP (2007) $86 Costs of adaptation in developing

countries in 2015MitigationUNFCCC Secretariat (2007a;2007b)

$380 Costs in 2030 to return emissions to 2007 levels. (Table 64, p. 196).

IPCC AR4 (2007: SPM Table 7) <3% Costs as percentage of GWP in 2030 for stabilizing in 445 -535 ppm CO2e range.

Stern Review (2007, 2008) 2007:1% (±3%) 2008: “450 may be substantially

> 2% GDP”

2007: Costs percentage of GWP through 2050 for 500-550 ppm CO2e. Target was revised in 2008 to 450-500 CO2e

European Commission (2009) €175 Bottom up analysis of incremental costs

National Obligations in 2020 (for climate costs = 1% of GWP)

Per capitaIncome

($/capita)

NationalCapacity(Billion $)

NationalObligation(Billion $)

NationalObligation(% GDP)

Average obligation per capita above dev threshold

EU 27 $38,385         $15,563 $ 216 1.12% $436

- EU 15 $41,424         $13,723 $ 188 1.12% $468

- EU +12 $25,981         $ 1,840 $ 28 1.09% $300

United States $53,671         $15,661 $ 275 1.50% $841

Australia $37,999        $ 720 $ 14 1.60% $611

Japan $40,771         $ 4,139 $ 62 1.23% $504

Russia $22,052         $ 1,927 $ 41 1.40% $326

China $9,468         $ 5,932 $ 98 0.73% $169

India $4,374         $ 972 $ 11 0.19% $58

South Africa $14,010         $ 422 $ 10 1.42% $395

Mexico $14,642         $ 1,009 $ 15 0.84% $207

LDCs $1,567         $ 82 $ 1 0.06% $58

Annex I $38,425         $40,722 $ 652 1.29% $529

Non-Annex I $6,998         $18,667 $ 292 0.66% $180

High Income $44,365         $40,993 $ 655 1.33% $602

Middle Income $8,797         $18,190 $ 286 0.69% $149

Low Income $2,022         $ 206 $ 3 0.08% $51

World $12,415         $59,388 $ 944 1.00% $330

Climate obligations, imagined as a (mildly progressive) tax

Note: European Union effort-sharing proposal estimates global mitigation costs at €175 billion, or about .25% of projected 2020 Gross World Product

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Final Comments• The scientific evidence is a wake-up call. Carbon-based

growth is no longer an option in the North, nor in the South.

• A rigorous, binding commitment, by the North, to substantial technology & financial assistance is critical. (“MRV for MRV”) Domestic reductions in the North are only half of the North’s obligation.

• The Copenhagen showdown:

– In principle, a corresponding commitment from the consuming class in the South is also necessary.

– In practice, the Copenhagen Period must be based on “trust-building while acting.”

• The alternative to something like this is a weak regime with little chance of preventing catastrophic climate change

• This is about politics, not only about equity and justice.

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www.GreenhouseDevelopmentRights.org

• Full report released at Poznan •Access to online calculator and dataset•National and regional reports available

Email info: authors@ecoequity.org