Climate of Public Policy Making

Barun Mitra Liberty Institute

Global temp in the tropics

Global warming deferred

Global mean surface temp (C), media reports in May 2008

Sun Spot Cycle (1850-1913)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

018

5018

5218

5418

5618

5818

6018

6218

6418

6618

6818

7018

7218

7418

7618

7818

8018

8218

8418

8618

8818

9018

9218

9418

9618

9819

0019

0219

0419

0619

0819

1019

12

Sunspots

Temperature

Linear (Sunspots)

Linear (Temperature)

Sun spot data and surface temperature

Sun Spot Cycle (1913 – 2006)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1913

1916

1919

1922

1925

1928

1931

1934

1937

1940

1943

1946

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Sunspots

Temperature

Linear (Sunspots)

Linear (Temperature)

Sun spot data and surface temperature

The past decade

Climatic change

• Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity. It suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.

• Prof Emanuel had published a paper in Nature weeks before hurricane Katrina in 2005, arguing that intensity of storms had increased since 1970s.

Changing Climate (1)• Earth was warmer than now at -500 MY, -390 MY, -250 MY, and -100 MY and colder

than now at -445 MY, -310 MY, -170 MY and -35 MY (VIEZER et al., 2000; KUMP, 2000; REID, 1987).

• -490 to -443 MY (Ordovician glaciation-. Colder than present (SHAVIV and VIEZER, 2003).

• -145 MY (Cretaceous-. Very warm. Speculation that there was no ice on the planet, even at the poles (ENVIRONMENT CANADA, 2003).

• -43 MY (Eocene-. Very warm. CO2 levels then were less than during the glaciation at –114,000 years (ENVIROTRUTH, 2003).

• -17 MY (Miocene- very warm. CO2 levels then were less than present levels (ENVIROTRUTH, 2003).

• -2 MY very warm. Forests almost extended towards the North Pole (ENVIROTRUTH, 2003).

• -1.6 MY to now. Thirty-three ice ages and retreats; earth was much colder than at -2 MY (ENVIROTRUTH, 2003). Periodic and rapid fluctuations from cooler to warmer periods are referred to as interglaciations. Reasons cited are: continental drift, changes in ocean configurations, changes in atmospheric and ocean circulations, natural wobbles in earth’s orbit (called Milankovich cycles) and variations in solar energy.

Changing climate (2)• -125,000 years. Very warm in Europe. Hippopotami and other animals, now

confined mainly to Africa in natural habitat, existed in Northern Europe (ENVIROTRUTH, 2003).

• -114,000 years. Beginning of the most recent glacial period. Very cold. High CO2 levels (ENVIROTRUTH, 2003).

• -50,000 years. Very cold. Most of North America was covered by ice, some places up to 1.5 km thick (ENVIRONMENT CANADA, 2003).

• -15,000 years. Earth was emerging from the last ice age. Temperatures in Greenland rose by 9 _C in 50 years (WEART, 2003).

• -12,000 years. In Europe, temperatures varied from warmer than present to the coldest during the ice age in a few decades and then bounced back. In Greenland, temperatures rose by 8 _C in a single decade (WEART, 2003).

• -11,000 years. Last ice age ended. Since then temperatures have been fluctuating (ENVIRONMENT CANADA, 2003).

• -7,000 to -4,000 years. 1 to 3_F warmer than now ( ENVIRONMENT CANADA, 2003; BRIFFA, 2000).

Changing Climate (3)• -5,000 years. Cooling of 2 _C globally. 6 _C cooling in the Arctic and only 0.5 _C in

lower latitudes (ENVIROTRUTH, 2003).

• -2,000 years. Tree-ring records from Siberia suggest no temperature change except three episodes (i) Medieval Warm Period (MWP), (ii) Little Ice Age (LIA) and (iii) high temperatures of 20th Century with peak in 1940 (CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL CHANGE, 2003).

• 800 to 1300 A.D. MWP (Medieval Warm Period): 1 to 2 _C warmer than present.

• Warmest period was during 900 to 1100 A.D (SOON and BALIUNAS, 2003; VILLALBA, 1990, 1994).

• 1000 A.D. Very warm in the Arctic. Sailing activity reported where there is a permanent ice pack now (THOMPSON et al., 2000; BRIFFA, 2000 and also LAMB, 1972a, b; VILLALBA, 1990, 1994).

• 1350 – 1800 A.D. LIA (Little Ice Age): Average temperature dropped by 1.5 _C in 100 years. Coldest period of the LIA was during 1550 to 1700 (JONES et al., 1998; VILLALBA, 1990, 1994).

• 1860 – to present time: This period of instrument data has provided the most detailed description of the earth’s climate with a steep temperature increase between 1910–1940, a moderate decrease from 1945 to 1970 and the present warming from about 1975 (LAMB, 1972a, b; DEGAETANO, 2003; GRAY, 2002; GORDON, 1998).

Climate Science

• Climate is ever changing,

• Science can never be settled

• Limits of using science for public policy

• Science is about hypothesis, facts and theories

• Public policy is about values, preferences and prices

World at Night

This map shows the geographic distribution of cities. It clearly shows that cities are concentrated in Europe, the eastern United States, Japan, China and India. It is a better map for showing the geography of night time electricity consumption for outdoor lighting than it is for showing the geography of population. For example: the eastern United States is very bright but the more densely populated areas of China and India are not nearly as bright in this image. NASA Image.

Africa & Europe

Western Europe is aglow with night lights. This image clearly shows that the cities of Europe are along the coasts. The Mediterranean coasts of Italy, France and Spain are a solid line of light as is the southern shorelines of the Black and Caspian Seas. The Sahara of northern Africa and the jungles of south-central Africa are largely void of illuminated cities. One of the most striking features on this image is the high concentration of cities on the Nile River, downstream from the Aswan Dam. NASA Image.

ASIA

Japan stands out on this satellite view of Asia at night, along with the west coast of Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Bangkok. The route of the Trans-Siberian Railroad can be seen as a light line across the otherwise dark area of northern Russia. High city densities in eastern China, Indonesia, India and the eastern coast of Australia can clearly be seen.

Korean Peninsula

Blackout: While South Korea is a blaze of light, there's barely a glimmer in North Korea (2006)

Light of Development

• Mitigation – lower economic growth and consumption

• Adaptation – encourage economic growth and consumption

Adaptation vs Mitigation

Penalising Energy

• Taxes on fuel and transport

• Carbon tariffs being proposed

• Bio-fuels, subsidies diverting food crops

Price of being powerless

• High cost of transportation, congestion and pollution• Loss to agriculture due to lack of electricity to run the

water pumps• Less than 5% of agriculture produce is processed, lack

of refrigeration and storage leading to about 30% of fruits and vegetables being wasted

• 50,000 Indians die each year due to snake bites, because of lack of medical facilities, including lack of refrigeration to store the anti-venom serums

• 20,000 of the 2-3 million people bitten by dogs die because failure to provide rabies vaccine

Drought and Development

• A typical drought and consequent famine killed over a million people

• In 1876-77, 3 to 6 million died across India

• In 1942-43, 1.5 to 2 million died just in Bengal

• 1965-66, 1.5 million died mostly in North India

Rainfall in India

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

1100.0

1871

1876

1881

1886

1891

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

RAINFALL (IN MILLIMETER)

Basket case to bread basket

0

50

100

150

200

25019

50-5

1

1953

-54

1956

-57

1959

-60

1962

-63

1965

-66

68-6

9

71-7

2

74-7

5

77-7

8

80-8

1

83-8

4

86-8

7

89-9

0

92-9

3

95-9

6

98-9

9

2001

-200

2

Fo

od

gra

in (

Mil

lio

n t

on

ne

s)

20

40

60

80

100

120

Su

mm

er

& W

inte

r P

rod

uc

tio

ns

Total Kharif Raabi

Food production in price

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.001

951

-52

19

52-5

3

19

53-5

4

19

54-5

5

19

55-5

6

19

56-5

7

19

57-5

8

19

58-5

9

19

59-6

0

19

60-6

1

19

61-6

2

19

62-6

3

19

63-6

4

19

64-6

5

19

65-6

6

19

66-6

7

19

67-6

8

19

68-6

9

19

69-7

0

19

70-7

1

19

71-7

2

19

72-7

3

19

73-7

4

19

74-7

5

19

75-7

6

19

76-7

7

19

77-7

8

19

78-7

9

19

79-8

0

19

80-8

1

19

81-8

2

19

82-8

3

19

83-8

4

19

84-8

5

19

85-8

6

19

86-8

7

19

87-8

8

19

88-8

9

19

89-9

0

19

90-9

1

19

91-9

2

19

92-9

3

19

93-9

4

19

94-9

5

19

95-9

6

19

96-9

7

19

97-9

8

19

98-9

9

19

99-2

00

0

20

00-0

1

Conclusion

• Enable the poor to come of poverty

• Asking the poor today to pay for the challenges of tomorrow, will only make the poor more vulnerable, and endanger the future as well

• Richer people will be better placed to deal with the challenges of tomorrow

Thank You

Liberty InstituteJulian L. Simon Centre

C-4/8 Sahyadri Plot 5, Sector 12, DwarkaNew Delhi 110075. India

Telefax: +91-11-28031309Email: libertyInstitute@gmail.com , info@libertyindia.org

Web sites: www.InDefenceofLiberty.orgwww.IndianDemocracy.net , www.EmpoweringIndia.org