climate smart agriculture - harvest the future€¦ · 4. climate smart agriculture recognizes the...

CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE: THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF MODELLING AS PART OF

THE SOLUTION FOR THE CARIBBEAN

Michael A. Taylor

Climate Studies Group, Mona

University of the West Indies, Mona.

2 THINGS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

3 THINGS ABOUT THE VALUE OF MODELS & MODELLING

4 CONCLUSIONS

IN THE CONTEXT OF CARIBBEAN

AGRICULTURE…

Climate Change...is real!

Distinct changes in measures of climate (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time, due to human actions, happening now.

2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling

4Concluding Statements

CH4 150% ↑

CO2 40% ↑



2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


Caribbean temperatures

have increased by 1

degree in the last century

Warm days have steadily increased

(~22 days since 1960)

Warm nights have steadily

increased (~21 days since 1960)

Cold nights and days have

decreased (~14 fewer cold nights

since 1960)

Warmer days and nights

Wa

rm n

igh

tsW

arm

da

ys


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling



have increased by 1


• Shift in the ‘character’ of

regional rainfall. New trends in

the intensity, frequency and

duration of rainfall events are

noticeable.

• For example, the number of dry

days between rain events is

increasing, and when rain

occurs it tends to be heavier.

Rainfall more variable

North Caribbean


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling



have increased by 1


More storms and hurricanes

1980-1999

2000-2012


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling



have increased by 1


Sea levels are rising

‘…Caribbean’s rate of

sea level rise appears

to follow the global

mean ~ 1.7 mm/year.’


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling




2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


Temperatures

increasing

Variable

Rainfall

More storms and

hurricanes

Rising sea

levels

Climate Change...is a real

challenge!

2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


Temperatures

increasing

Variable

Rainfall

More storms and

hurricanes

Rising sea

levels

New climate regime

Unfamiliarity Unpredictability

Unreliability

Drought 2009-2010 was the “worst

drought in twenty-five years and as a

result there wasn’t enough rainfall to keep

up the water distribution from the National

Water Commission’s facilities to

many parishes, especially to the highly

populated Kingston and St. Andrew”.

“the greatest challenge

associated with the 2010 El

Niño-induced drought was the

region’s inability to recognise

the onset of the drought and

its severity”

Caribbean farmers lamented “the lack of reference points in the climate”

(or even associated biodiversity) on which to base judgements for planting

and reaping

Climate Change

2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


• Sufficient to address the complexity of the climate change problem – direct

and indirect impacts; across sectors; affecting individual through community

through governmental; challenging national through regional through global

economies; etc.

• Multiplicity of options – policy, technology driven, on the ground,

governmental, mitigation, adaptive, education, etc.

real

(happening now) real challenge

Real Solutions today

Models and modelling as

potentially part of the mix

2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


Climate Models

Models and modelling as

potentially part of the mix

Crop Models

Computer model that uses

mathematical methods to

simulate the interactions of the

atmosphere, oceans, land

surface, and ice. They can

simulate past, present and

future climates.

A computer simulation

model that helps estimate

crop yield as a function of

weather conditions, soil

conditions, and choice of

crop management practices.

Both climate and crop models can help with

the climate change challenge…

3 ways

Climate Model

Scenarios or Storylines of future global development

Future Climates

TemperatureRainfall

ExtremesSea Level Rise

1. Models help to …reduce the uncertainties

Climate models give us an idea of what the future climate might be under climate change.2

things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling



are projected to

increase by up to 4

degrees by century’s

end.

Even warmer days and nights

War

m D

ays

Co

ol N

igh

ts

30-98% of days annually will be considered ‘hot’ by the 2090s

Only 2% ‘cool’ by the 2080s


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


http://www.google.com.jm/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.slideshare.net/globalwaterpartnership/global-to-local-caribbean-socioeconomic-climate-change-scenarios-by-professor-john-br-agard&ei=WGl1Vc3BCImhgwTX1oLQCA&bvm=bv.95039771,d.eXY&psig=AFQjCNHVcjXSb7izY6N-bL2ofgd3FWgGLw&ust=1433844234940971



are projected to

increase by up to 4


end.

Drier times ahead…

Drying projected to be

between 25% and 30%

Drying most severe between

June and October!

Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by regional climate models.


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling





are projected to

increase by up to 4


end.

More intense hurricanes

Number of simulated storms

remains the same but more

intense, with higher rainfall

rates and increased

maximum winds.


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling





are projected to

increase by up to 4


end.

Even higher sea levels

Impacts from a 2m SLR on Jamaica1. Land area lost (1% of Jamaica). 2. People displaced (1%). 3. Damage or loss to power plants (20%)4. Tourism resorts damaged or lost (18%). 5. Loss or damage of airports (60%).6. Loss of roads (2%). 7. Loss or damage to port structures

(100%) - UNDP/CARIBSAVE (2010)


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling




Higher

Temperatures

Less Rainfall

(but still variable)

More intense storms

and hurricanes

Even higehr sea

levels


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


Knowledge of the future climates as gained from climate

models provides a context within which to consider

future actions, which is marked by a little less

unpredictability, unfamiliarity and unreliability…


Crop models allow the exploration of what certain choices might result in given variable climatic conditions.

2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


2. Models help to …explore some possibilities

Rankine et al. (2014)

Study of the potential

use of FAO

AquaCrop model for

sweet potato farming

in the Caribbean


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


2. Models help to … explore some possibilities

**

**

Canopy cover, Biomass (above & Below)

Randomised Complete

Blocks (RCBs)

Parameters:

•Rainfall

•Temperature

•Relative Humidity

•Solar Radiation

•Wind

•ETo

On site weather

station



use of FAO

AquaCrop model for


in the Caribbean


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling



0

100

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

011

012

013

014

015

0

Ca

no

py

Co

ve

r (

%)

DAP

Devon, Manchester: Rain-fed

(2013)

Simulated Measured

0

6

12

18

24

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

011

012

013

014

015

0Bio

ma

ss (

t/h

a)

DAP

Simulated Measured



use of FAO

AquaCrop model for


in the Caribbean


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling



0

100

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

011

012

013

014

015

0

Ca

no

py

Co

ve

r (

%)

DAP

Devon, Manchester: Rain-fed

(2013)

Simulated Measured

0

6

12

18

24

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

011

012

013

014

015

0Bio

ma

ss (

t/h

a)

DAP

Simulated Measured

Simulated (line) versus measured (filled circles)

yield of sweet potato for rain-fed and irrigated

treatments at Devon, Manchester (2013). Error

bars represent one standard deviation above

and below the mean


“…potential for the use of the

FAO AquaCrop model for real

time decision making in the

Caribbean under various

rainfall conditions.”



use of FAO

AquaCrop model for


in the Caribbean


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling



“Crop models provide a domain within

which decision making can occur. The

changes due to climate can be factored in for

a virtual environment and appropriate

decisions simulated to see the effect (for

example) on crop yields, before action is

actually undertaken.”


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


2. Models help to …suggest some possibilities

3. Models help to …define potential strategies

Climate Models

Crop Models

“…potential

suitability of some

crops under future

climate change”




2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling




Rainfall (mm) Maximum

Temperature

(˚C)

Minimum

Temperature (˚C)

Vapour Pressure Relative

Humidity (%)

Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max

161.3 9.9 -540.2 3.5 3.0 12.6 2.8 2.1 7.8 3.7 3.0 9.4 1.2 1.3 25.4

Change Biomass (t/ha) Yield (t/ha) Evapotranspiration

(mm/day)

Water

Productivity

(kgm-2mm-1)

Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mea

n

Max

Absolute 4.4 4.3 4.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 -88.2 -89.0 -95.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Percentage 37.0 33.9 31.6 33.9 32.5 32.0 -15.5 -15.3 -15.9 63.9 70.1 70.9

“The results suggest that sweet potato may be a potential 'climate change' adaptation

crop particularly given its moderate drought tolerance, requiring little labour and

inorganic fertilizers for development of the tuber.”

CARIWIG Project: Rankine et al. (2015)F

utu

re

clim

ate

s

Future Productivity


2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


2. Models help to …suggest some possibilities


“In tandem the output of

climate plus crop models

may provide results that

give a reason for taking

certain risks...”

2things about

climate change

3things about

models & modelling


4 Things…

1. Climate change is a real

and present challenge for

the Caribbean agricultural

sector.

2. Models and modelling

should be part of the

Caribbean Agricultural

sector’s approach to

tackling the real challenge

of climate change.

3. Climate models help to

reduce the uncertainties

associated with a future

climate; crop models help

decision making by

exploring possibilities; both

sets of models help in

defining strategies by

offering reasons for risk

taking.

4. Climate Smart

Agriculture recognizes the

challenge and uses all

available tools and

resources to ensure

resilience. There is a role

for partnership with

academia and research in

the pursuit of resilience.

Thank you

climate smart agriculture - harvest the future€¦ · 4. climate smart agriculture recognizes the...

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