Robusta global overview

Octavio Pires

May 2015

2

Can the uptrend in Robusta yields be maintained? How to improve Brazilian conillon yields and keep the competitiveness?

Vietnam 14/15 crop down slightly given the off year cycle.

Vietnam 15/16 crop expected to be a bumper crop.

Indonesia in 15-16 to recover from the catastrophic 14-15 yields basis currently favourable weather outlook

The current return on cost of production should lead to increased grafting and input usage in the short term and new bearingacreage in the longer term.

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3

Healthy returns on Cost of Production indicate further area increase, resulting in higher production

Returns on Cost of Production - Robusta

Monthly shipments of Robusta, Brazilian Conillons gainingmarket share at the expense of Vietnam

4

Robusta stocks remained comfortable until end 2014 before building further in 2015

5

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Brazilian Conillon, the cheapest Robusta coffee in the world today

6

LIFFE Certified inventories have recovered from historical lows one year ago

7

Brazil Conillon has significantly contributed to the recent build

8

Since May 2014, Brazilian Conillons participated actively in the ICE EU gradings

9

ICO cash prices

10

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Recent changes in market behavior: New opportunities?Soluble growth in emerging markets, Single serve in mature markets

11

Currency basket recent trends

12

Vietnan

demand

futures

supply

13

Market has several components

others

labor

inputs

Sellingdecision

prices

profit

production

Past view on Currency basket

14

demand

futures

supply

15

Market always find a balance...

others

labor

inputs

Sellingdecision

prices

profit

production

consumption