Communication Technology Landscape of 2021 A.D.

By: Ariel DarnellCOMM303-50

Bill Brantley

A bright future is ahead The past ten years have produced a

great amount of innovations and more are to come.

In 2021, people can look forward to: A more personal internet Integrated social media experiences The uprising of tablets and E-readers Traditional media united with new media Globally, internet at a higher speed

and quality

WEB 3.0: A more personal internet

• Tailored responses generated from past and personally set preferences.

• Instead of multiple searches, you might type a complex sentence or two in your Web 3.0 browser.

• The Web 3.0 browser will: • analyze your response • search the Internet for all possible

answers • then organize the results for you

The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology

No single technology can be understood without understanding the competing and complimentary technologies and the larger social environment within which these technologies exist.

Umbrella Perspective Factors

Enabling – creates the ability to make the application of communication technology possible

Limiting - places parameters an application Motivating – reasons and incentives for

adopting Inhibiting - discouragements for adopting

an application

Umbrella Perspective Levels

Hardware - the communication technology itself

Software - the messages/content of the communication technology

Organizational Infrastructure - those involved in the production/distribution

Social System - the political, economic and media systems environment

Individual Users - actual and potential All five of these levels must be examined to

understand a communication technology

http://zekefloyd.wordpress.com/2011/06/05

o Using the Umbrella Perspective and with WEB 3.0 in mind, this is a humorous example of the possible distance that the iPhone has and will advance to with its extensive amount of possibilities with mobile applications.

Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations

Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.

Since decisions are not authoritative or collective, each member of the social system faces his or her own innovation-decision that follows a 5-step process.

Process of Roger’s diffusion of Innovations

1) Knowledge – person becomes aware of an innovation and has some idea of how it functions

2) Persuasion – person forms a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward the innovation

3) Decision – person engages in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject the innovation

4) Implementation – person puts an innovation into use

5) Confirmation – person evaluates the results of an innovation-decision already made

Another Look at the Five Stages

http://www.fidis.net/resources/deliverables/hightechid/int-d32000/doc/13/

Integrated Social Media Experiences From the 5 stages graphic, it is apparent that as

long as the public has the knowledge about social media, it is going to be a consistent theme in 2021’s technology landscape.

People will be able to find and interact on social media on literally ever device including but not limited to:

Tablets E-readers Laptops Notebooks Desktops Mobile phones Televisions

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate The relative speed with which

members of a social system adopt an innovation.

Rates are determined by what adopter group an individual is categorized in.

http://osrin.net/page/2/

Adoption Rate Categories Innovators – venturesome, educated, multiple info

sources, high social and financial status Early adopters – social leaders, popular, educated Early majority – deliberate, many informal social

contacts Late majority – skeptical, traditional, lower socio-

economic status Laggards – neighbors and friends are main info

sources, fear of debt, lowest social and financial status In 2012, it is likely that there will be a lower percentage

of laggards, due to the global persistence of the new media as well as the lower prices on media viewing devices, such as cell phones, laptops, and tablets.

Critical Mass Theory

Value and utility of a good or service increases as user amount increases

The increase of adopters and quickness to reach critical mass can be faster with interactive media

The rate at which previous users discontinue their use can also be faster

http://www.digitaltrends.com/gadgets

TABLETS AND E-READERS OF TODAY

In 2021, Tablets and E-readers will be…

More widely used due to the Critical Mass Theory.

User friendly to the older generation who is less tech savvy, resulting in a greater following.

More cost and space efficient than books and scholarly textbooks

Utilized and integrated into early education learning programs

Eco-friendly As a result, there will be fewer physical

bookstores

Uses and Gratifications Theory Humanistic approach to media use Not merely one way that the populace uses media As many reasons for using the media, as there are

media users Media consumers can choose the amount of influence

media has on them Users choose media alternatives merely as a means to

and end Media can have an unconscious influence over our lives

and how we view the world In 2021, this theory will still be true. Consumers will

always be able to have a choice of how much media and interactive/social media they participate in. Even with regional and global advances of technology and integration of new and old media, each individual will still have the right to decide weather they wish to participate with modern innovations or not.

Media System Dependency Theory

Conceptual Model

Media System Dependency Theory Explained

It is all about relationships Complex system; the following all have

dependency relationships with one another:

The media Individuals Their interpersonal environment The social environment

Traditional media united with New media

Inspired by the media system dependency theory, the relationship between traditional and new media will only become stronger by 2021.

Radio, newspaper, and magazines will all be accessible at rapid speeds through any device that gets on the internet.

For example: It will be totally ordinary to be able to listen to the radio, Facebook chat, and scroll through the latest edition of Golfing Times Magazine on his or her 70 inch wall mounted flat screen 3D T.V.

The Principle of Relative Constancy The spending of money on advertising

related to the overall domestic product The only ways for any particular traditional

type of media – be it television, radio, or the Internet – to increase its revenue base are to capture revenue from another type of media or to capture a proportional share of an expanding economy.

This principle also explains why traditional and new media unite so often, it generates a more lucrative advertising relationship across all lines of media.

Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory 1. Trial-and-error experience is a hands-on exploration

2. Perception of the object is a firsthand chance to look, admire, but don't touch

3. Observation of another's response to the object 4. Modeling is watching someone and acting in the manner

you just watched 5. Exhortation is urging someone to do something 6. Instruction about the object is a verbal description This theory is an example of why social media has such a big

influence today and will continue to be around in 2021. Social media is dependent on user participation. Steps one through six of this theory show evidence of how some viewers begin their journey with social networking. By 2021, more people will have gone through steps one through six and accepted social media into their everyday activities.

The Theory of the Long Tail

Shift from mass markets to narrow interests

http://www.core77.com/blog/business/thorough_research_puts_long_tail_theory_into_question_11673.asp

Long Tail Theory-Niches are pieces of mass media-Consumers are able to find niche products-Merchants are selling a large number of unique items with relatively small quantities sold of each-Resulting in selling fewer popular items in large quantities. -The internet is a great example of using the Long Tail theory.-In addition to the merchant/consumer relationship, the internet can be a tool for niche journalism and niche news, this will also be incorporated in 2021 internet use.

http://thefuturebuzz.com/2009/02/11/6-buzzworthy-internet-laws/

Globally: Internet at a Higher Speed and Quality

Due to the high demand and social pressures for productivity and high speed internet, it will be common place all over the world.

Each theory, in some way, described the need for efficiency.

Internet will be all around less expensive More widely accessible to the have-nots in

society, i.e. in 2021 absolutely everyone will have the opportunity to use a faster, more reliable internet, in some form.

In Conclusion The future is bright! Today, we have a lot of theories that help

us to know what to expect in the technology of 2021.

There will be fewer paper books due to the high use of E-readers.

Globally, a low financial status will not hinder one’s ability to have the internet, WEB 3.0, and participate in all of the integrated aspects of the internet such as social, traditional, and new media.

Works Cited http://people.bethel.edu/~socsco/ComTech/

ComTechTheory.html http://zekefloyd.wordpress.com/2011/06/05/ http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/Diffusion

%20of%20Innovations.htm http://www.fidis.net/resources/deliverables/hightechid/

int-d32000/doc/13/ http://osrin.net/page/2/ http://www.uky.edu/~drlane/capstone/mass/uses.htm http://thefuturebuzz.com/2009/02/11/6-buzzworthy-

internet-laws/ http://www.core77.com/blog/business/

thorough_research_puts_long_tail_theory_into_question_11673.asp

http://economicsofadvertising.com/