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Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG

May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN

Tennessee AgroForestry

Information for Strategic Planning for Tennessee Agriculture

Prepared by University of Tennessee Agricultural Modeling & Analysis Group, Drs. Kim Jensen ([email protected]) and Burton C. English ([email protected]), and Mr. Jamey Menard ([email protected]), Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics



Tennessee AgroForestry

AIM‐AG was established in 1998 as part of the Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Agricultural Experiment Station. The mission of AIM‐AG is to assess and project the impacts of agri‐industry development on the Tennessee economy and to analyze market opportunities for economically efficient agri‐industry development within the state. <http://aimag.ag.utk.edu/>

Objective‐To provide agroforestry industry information and market analysis that will assist the strategic planning process to guide future growth of the industry in the state of Tennessee.

Information provided in the Flyers includes: a) A comparison of basic agricultural information (market value of crops/livestock, land use, yields

per acre, input use, and market access indicators) between Tennessee and other neighbors within the region.

b) A comparison of basic food and fiber products manufacturing information (value of shipments, location quotients) between Tennessee and other neighbors within the region.

c) Economic impacts from both primary and secondary agriculture and forestry for Tennessee, including multiplier measures.

d) Trends in production and comparison with our neighbors for the major crop and livestock subsectors.

e) Comparison of Tennessee with our neighbors across rural demographics including population, income, and education, as well as farmer demographics.



The purpose of this information is to foster strategic planning discussion about how Tennessee’s ag& forestry base compares with its neighbors.

First, an overview of the state’s farm product sales and net farm income compared with our neighbors is presented.

Second, more detailed information comparing specific commodities is presented.

Net Farm Income, by State, 2011 (1,000 $)

AL AR GA KY MO MS NC SC TN VA US

Ratio Highest to TN

$547,235 $1,422,739 $2,463,208 $1,508,656 $3,333,185 $1,254,768 $3,006,876 $445,712 $799,059 $752,509 $117,907,650 4.17

Market Value of Ag & Forestry Products Sold from Farms, by State, 2011 (1,000 $ )

AL AR GA KY MO MS NC SC TN VA US

Ratio Highest to TN

$5,674,552 $9,164,985 $9,824,350 $6,126,583 $11,064,111 $6,287,625 $11,940,940 $3,049,058 $4,467,283 $4,239,589 $418,050,919 2.67

Market Value of Agricultural & Forestry Products, by State, 2011 Net Farm Income, by State, 2011

Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Market Value & Farm Income



Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Rankings Crops & Livestock

Commodity

TN Rank (2006‐2011)

Food grains 6

Feed grains 4

Cotton 5

Oil crops 6

Meatanimals 5

Dairy 6

Poultry 6

Misc. livestock 6



Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Land Use

- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Alabama Arkansas

Georgia Kentucky

Mississippi Missouri

North Carolina South Carolina

Tennessee Virginia

Million Acres

Cropland used for crops Idle cropland Cropland pasturePasture Forest UrbanRural Transportation

• All except SC and VA have more total land area than TN.

• Only MO, AR, and KY have a greater amount of land used as cropland.

• Tennessee has over 24 million acres of land; Missouri has 41.7 million acres.

• In 2007, Tennessee had an estimated 6 million acres (25%) defined as cropland.

• 4,406 million acres in row crops, close grown grains, hay, vegetables, and orchards.

• 1.2 million acres were in pasture that used to be in crops.

• Nearly 1/2 million acres are cropland that is idled.

Land Use, by State, 2007

Pasture, 2,093

Forest, 13,913

Urban, 1,594 Rural

Trans., 458

Cropland used for crops, 4,406

Idle cropland,

410

Cropland pasture, 1,203

Other, 6,019

Proportion of Crop, Pasture, and Forest Lands, by State, 2007 Tennessee Land Use, 2007



Soybeans Cotton Corn Hay

TobaccoBurley Type 31 Light Air Cured Burley Wheat

(bu per acre) (lbs per acre) (bu per acre) (tons per acre) (pounds per acre) (bu per acre)

AL 45 952 98 2.6 59AR 43 1,083 195 1.21 55GA 37 1,027 180 2.5 49KY 40 68 2.07 2,050 62MO 29.5 1,033 75 1.44 57MS 45 970 165 2.6 57NC 39 993 117 2.51 1,900 57SC 34 918 122 2.2 53TN 38 834 85 2.01 1,810 63VA 42 1,129 103 2.32 1,750 65US 39.6 849 123.4 2.13 2,021 47.2Rank 7th 9th 8th 8th 3rd of 5 2nd

505864677070

8080

100115

80

0 50 100 150

NCTNSCGAALVAARKYMSMOUS

Acres

Median Farm SizeRatio of Crop Sales to Fertilizer & Ag. Chemical Expenditures, 2007

State2007 Fert. & Ag. Chem.

Expenses ($1,000)2007 Value of Crop Sales

($1,000)Ratio of Crop Sales to Fert. &

Ag. Chem. ExpendituresAL $253,332 $676,987 2.7AR $764,752 $2,900,973 3.8GA $603,986 $2,142,270 3.5KY $409,518 $1,404,769 3.4MO $922,014 $3,494,938 3.8MS $483,756 $1,668,028 3.4NC $604,960 $2,606,279 4.3SC $217,338 $798,490 3.7TN $428,115 $1,147,786 2.7VA $265,385 $858,301 3.2US $28,182,109 $143,657,928 5.1

Crop Yields, 2012

Tennessee: Crop Yields



• Tennessee has 6 marketing cooperatives, ranking 8th.

• 92 farmers markets, with an average of .019 farmers markets per 1,000 population.

• 728 farms producing and delivering commodity under production contracts, with these primarily being broiler operations.

• NC largest number, arising from broilers, hogs & pigs, turkeys, and eggs.

911

57

2220

86

13

4226

729

3440

560

40

5137

1236

5660

1366

53

0 25 50 75

AlabamaArkansasGeorgia

KentuckyMississippiMissouri

North CarolinaTennessee

VirginiaNumber of Cooperatives, by State, 2010

Total Supply & Service Marketing

State Broilers Eggs Pullets Turkeys

Custom Fed Cattle

Hogs and Pigs

Other cattle,

livestock

Grains and

Oilseeds

Veg, Melons, Potatoes

Other crops Total

AL 2,370 443 184 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 34 10 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 3,023AR 2,416 531 247 257 ‐‐‐ 119 266 ‐‐‐ 3 ‐‐‐ 3,540GA 2,173 517 215 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 25 9 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 2,910KY 462 90 40 1 ‐‐‐ 28 67 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 682MS 1,404 205 69 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 38 46 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 1,759MO 366 12 67 329 7 256 121 ‐‐‐ 5 ‐‐‐ 1,189NC 1,838 448 226 522 ‐‐‐ 1,522 68 4 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 4,351SC 397 54 24 ‐‐‐ 4 147 5 3 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 643TN 547 90 40 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 30 22 ‐‐‐ 1 ‐‐‐ 728VA 523 76 29 218 9 37 84 1 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 962

Tennessee: Marketing

Farms Producing & Delivering Under Production Contracts



• 2011 TN value manufacturing shipments was nearly $17.9 billion.

• Tennessee ranks 4th behind GA, MO, and NC.

• 2011 TN value of beverage & tobacco products manufacturing shipments was nearly $5.6 billion.

• Other states with a higher value of shipments include NC and VA.

Tennessee Value of Shipments ($1,000)

Year Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311)

Beverage & Tobacco Products (NAICS 312)

2004 $13,561,974 $3,485,251 2005 $14,539,810 $3,702,676 2006 $14,120,493 $4,063,730 2007 $16,239,145 $4,167,272 2008 $17,723,753 $4,608,430 2009 $16,234,517 $4,720,518 2010 $16,777,791 $4,942,316 2011 $17,852,162 $5,556,564

Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Food, Beverage, and Tobacco



Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Textiles, Apparel, and Leather

∙ Tennessee’s growth rate in textile mills manufacturing shipments between 2004 and 2011 declined an average of 3.8%, textile product mills manufacturing shipments declined an average of 4.1%, while apparel shipments decline an average of 9.1% and leather products an average of 14.7%.

Tennessee Value of Shipments ($1,000)

YearTextile Mills (NAICS 313) Textile Product Mills

(NAICS 314)

Apparel Manufacturing (NAICS 315)

Leather & Allied Products (NAICS 316)

2004 $1,542,159 $858,949 $818,231 $209,4042005 $1,513,601 $1,043,737 $810,161 $193,3672006 $1,557,102 $851,967 $672,959 $151,5092007 $1,424,116 $844,9712008 $1,412,137 $970,2942009 $1,003,024 $759,012 $482,9442010 $1,049,432 $716,7162011 $1,112,345 $583,628

‐13.1%

‐2.9% ‐3.0% ‐4.5% ‐3.8%

0.5%

‐4.5%

‐15.0%

‐10.0%

‐5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

AL GA NC SC TN VA Avg

Avg. Annual Growth in Textile Mills Shipments, 2004‐2011



Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Sawmilling

• 2011 TN shipments from sawmills and wood preservation facilities were valued at $331.7 million.

• Top three states having the largest value of shipments for sawmills & wood preservation are AL, GA, and VA.

• Tennessee ranks 9th for value of shipments

Sawmills & Wood Preservation (NAICS 3211) Value of Shipments ($1,000)Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia

2004 $1,504,243 $1,421,054 $1,790,663 $546,245 $1,278,867 $324,612 $1,506,719 $1,052,167 $633,026 $1,116,153 2005 $1,820,376 $1,583,655 $1,924,677 $614,215 $1,329,218 $365,108 $1,645,252 $1,191,221 $599,847 $1,108,065 2006 $1,946,782 $1,486,313 $1,891,530 $676,415 $1,301,270 $351,470 $1,600,741 $1,061,203 $601,055 $1,589,485 2007 $1,449,106 $1,140,427 $1,909,158 $604,559 $1,234,739 $338,384 $1,372,775 $1,006,104 $537,090 $1,258,223 2008 $1,379,999 $988,295 $1,770,731 $517,076 $1,037,449 $287,777 $1,172,076 $757,728 $412,529 $1,168,088 2009 $1,016,762 $884,051 $1,446,925 $417,219 $945,793 $238,792 $976,154 $619,457 $210,411 $950,072 2010 $1,332,896 $924,390 $1,699,204 $493,712 $862,044 $273,144 $1,181,705 $748,389 $397,268 $1,011,322 2011 $1,374,363 $845,234 $1,607,530 $475,364 $888,823 $284,782 $1,204,331 $723,836 $331,657 $1,012,695



Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Pulp and Paper

• In 2011, the value of pulp, paper, & paperboard shipments from Tennessee was $2.5 billion.

• The top three states having the largest value of shipments for pulp, paper, & paperboard mills are AL, GA, and SC.

• Of the surrounding states for 2011, Tennessee ranks 4th for value of shipments, exceeding AR, KY, MS, NC, and VA.

Pulp, Paper, & Paperboard Mills (NAICS 3221) Value of Shipments ($1,000)Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia

2004 $5,557,502 $2,287,020 $4,643,749 $1,524,165 $1,443,782 ND $1,901,610 $3,617,887 $1,761,834 $2,301,653

2005 $5,843,954 $2,385,229 $4,777,343 $1,519,723 $1,452,877 ND $2,090,241 $3,897,336 $1,931,760 $2,297,329

2006 $6,449,731 $2,634,474 $5,226,589 $1,612,950 $1,532,809 ND $1,895,874 $4,010,302 $2,087,673 $2,412,839

2007 $7,156,365 $2,226,601 $5,181,897 $1,493,281 $1,461,579 ND $2,044,860 $4,459,808 $2,273,168 $2,348,089

2008 $7,357,513 $2,415,355 $5,580,592 $1,707,524 $1,318,065 ND $2,077,130 $4,659,105 $2,571,086 $2,537,020

2009 $6,613,024 $2,267,968 $4,853,666 $1,802,688 $1,236,375 ND $1,678,864 $4,442,022 $2,132,834 $2,059,307

2010 $6,720,529 $2,436,833 $5,286,913 $1,791,534 $1,490,782 ND $1,595,776 $4,603,084 $2,396,822 $2,363,451

2011 $7,030,127 $2,457,655 $5,993,157 $1,786,652 $1,466,690 ND $1,692,199 $4,586,023 $2,547,682 $1,907,987



Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Furniture

• In 2011, the value of shipments of furniture & related products was $1.3 billion.

• For 2011, the top three states having the largest value of shipments for furniture & related products are NC, MS, and GA.

• Of the surrounding states for 2011, Tennessee ranks 6th for value of shipments, exceeding Missouri’s, Arkansas’, S. Carolina’s and Kentucky’s shipment values.

Furniture & Related Products (NAICS 337) Value of Shipments ($1,000)

Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia

2004 $1,882,028 $997,823 $2,094,320 $675,723 $3,790,925 $1,522,425 $7,344,719 $469,592 $2,371,656 $2,339,149

2005 $2,188,964 $857,357 $2,124,407 $754,233 $3,922,734 $1,695,969 $7,555,390 $860,058 $2,467,588 $2,659,724

2006 $2,379,164 $833,970 $2,308,784 $815,873 $3,986,241 $1,686,681 $7,399,719 $951,717 $2,485,411 $2,930,741

2007 $1,289,013 $881,623 $2,378,549 $719,265 $4,161,174 $1,371,864 $7,684,473 $759,022 $2,278,579 $2,481,141

2008 $1,985,898 $876,977 $2,170,431 $673,698 $4,301,543 $1,092,109 $6,534,536 $606,086 $2,110,060 $2,090,629

2009 $1,443,418 $731,180 $1,736,247 $532,354 $3,504,314 $775,010 $5,084,560 $577,656 $1,540,337 $1,711,513

2010 $1,410,824 $772,510 $1,722,025 $0 $3,600,336 $744,451 $5,108,035 $588,925 $1,446,508 $1,639,141

2011 $1,529,765 $681,626 $1,723,166 $0 $3,489,351 $764,249 $5,464,121 $634,034 $1,336,446 $1,538,383

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

($1,000) Furniture and Related Products Value of Shipments, 2004‐2011

AL AR GA KY MO MS NC SC TN VA

1.7%

‐4.9%‐2.3%

‐3.9%

‐0.9%

‐8.4%

‐3.6%

8.3%

‐7.4%‐5.1%

‐2.6%

‐10.0%

‐5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%AL AR GA KY MS MO NC SC TN VA Avg

Avg. Annual Growth in Furniture & Related Prod. Shipments, 2004‐2011



Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Manufacturing Overview

*LQ = (Emp(j,k)/Emp(j))/(Emp(k)/Emp), where j = state and k = industry. Generally, LQ>1 suggests relative "comparative advantage" with respect to skilled labor pool for that industry. These industries are shaded in orange.

Location Quotients for Labor in Manufacturing*Industry AL AR GA KY MS MO NC SC TN VADog & Cat Food Manuf 1.04 0.83 0.37 0.51 0.30 3.43 0.25 1.12 1.50 0.74Other Animal Food Manuf 1.07 1.08 0.86 2.25 0.98 1.31 1.07 0.26 0.23 0.83Flour Milling & Malt Manuf 0.09 2.98 0.35 0.41 0.85 1.34 1.44 0.07 0.86 0.38Wet Corn Milling 0.72 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.94 0.54 1.21 5.31 0.00Soybean & Other Oilseed Processing 0.52 0.58 1.22 1.00 1.73 1.29 0.26 1.54 2.44 0.00Fats & Oils Refining & Blending 2.13 1.46 0.68 1.33 0.00 0.88 0.36 0.47 1.52 1.25Breakfast Cereal Manuf 0.00 0.51 1.77 0.00 0.00 3.10 0.36 0.00 2.32 0.00Sugar Cane Mills & Refining 0.25 0.00 3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.16 2.60Chocolate & Confectionery Manuf from Cacao beans 0.00 0.05 1.17 0.00 0.00 3.35 0.23 3.37 1.63 0.56Confectionery Manuf from Purchased Chocolate 0.21 0.08 0.50 0.46 0.06 1.06 0.41 0.31 4.29 3.19Nonchocolate Confectionery Manuf 0.13 0.11 2.31 0.81 0.00 0.07 1.03 0.09 3.27 0.58Frozen Food Manuf 0.19 2.62 0.24 2.43 0.67 0.81 0.14 1.84 1.80 0.27Fruit & Vegetable Canning, Pickling, & Drying 0.00 1.03 0.43 1.32 0.50 0.44 2.13 0.99 2.13 0.73Fluid Milk & Butter Manuf 0.71 0.50 0.24 3.04 0.92 0.89 0.44 1.47 1.49 2.35Cheese Manuf 0.17 0.15 0.27 1.10 0.00 6.57 0.04 0.42 0.63 0.00Dry, Condensed, & Evaporated Dairy Product Manuf 0.00 0.02 0.16 1.65 0.00 3.94 0.00 0.00 1.44 3.48Ice Cream & Frozen Dessert Manuf 2.08 0.61 0.40 0.74 0.00 3.22 1.07 0.39 0.60 0.21Animal (except poultry) Slaughtering, Rendering, & Processing 0.45 0.32 0.58 1.31 0.55 2.00 1.53 0.97 1.00 1.25Poultry Processing 1.63 1.47 1.11 0.44 1.78 0.41 0.92 1.18 0.46 0.76Bread & Bakery Product Manuf 0.75 0.60 1.11 1.12 0.40 0.94 1.23 1.24 1.38 1.06Cookie, Cracker, & Pasta Manuf 0.16 0.45 0.98 2.76 0.22 0.90 1.09 0.65 1.98 0.86Tortilla Manuf 0.00 0.04 4.03 0.24 0.00 0.01 0.74 0.00 1.71 0.13Snack Food Manuf 0.89 0.90 1.44 0.83 0.09 0.19 1.02 0.19 1.76 1.97Coffee & Tea Manuf 1.13 0.01 2.23 0.90 0.01 0.65 0.89 0.74 0.50 2.11Flavoring Syrup & Concentrate Manuf 0.00 0.06 4.94 1.13 0.05 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.00Seasoning & Dressing Manuf 0.67 0.48 1.16 1.78 1.27 1.86 0.24 1.49 1.15 0.58All Other Food Manuf 0.25 0.16 1.26 2.69 0.09 1.35 1.70 0.32 0.37 1.16Soft Drink & Ice Manuf 1.27 0.36 0.70 1.07 0.56 0.63 0.93 1.35 2.34 1.44Breweries 0.07 0.33 1.12 0.01 0.01 3.16 1.32 0.08 0.04 2.58Wineries 0.01 0.21 0.19 0.38 0.00 2.02 1.78 0.10 0.64 4.67



$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

2000 2003 2006 2009 2011

($1,000)Direct TIO from Ag,Forestry, & Manufacturing,

2000‐2011, Tennessee

AgricultureForestryFood, Fiber, & Forest Prod Manuf

2000‐2011 TN economic growth 11.4% per year.

Agroforestry growth rate 7.7% per year.

2009 and 2011 average only 1.3% for economy and 0.1% for agro‐forestry.

For agroforestry between 2000 and 2011, agriculture had the largest average growth at 10.9% per year, followed by food, fiber, and forest products manufacturing at 7.9%, and forestry at 2.0%.

Tennessee Total Industrial Output (TIO) and Employment, 2011: AgroForestry & State

AgroForestry Agriculture Forestry

Food, Fiber, & Forest Products

ManufacturingTotal Tennessee

EconomyAgroForestry % of Total Economy

TIO ($1,000) Direct $43,609 $31,061 $12,548 $32,364 $499,904 8.70%Total $66,359 $46,712 $19,647 $48,797 13.30%

Employment (Jobs)

Direct 176,282 136,815 39,467 78,218 3,517,918 5.00%Total 337,880 246,885 90,995 188,113 9.60%

AgroForestry directly contributed $43.6 billion to the Tennessee economy in 2011, or about 8.7% of the overall economy. When including multiplier effects, the contribution was about $66.3 billion. This represents about 13.3% of the overall economy. AgroForestry contributed 176,282 jobs directly, and with multiplier effects this increased to 337,880 jobs. AgroForestry employs about 5% of the jobs directly and 9.6% of the jobs with multiplier effects.

Economic Impacts from AgroForestry



Agricultural inputs $1.7 billion in direct economic activity.

With multiplier effects, economic impacts are $2.6 billion.

Lawn and garden equipment and pesticide and other agricultural chemicals comprise over 68% of the direct economic activity from agricultural input supply industries.

Commercial logging and forestry provide $174.8 million directly and $293.1 million with multiplier effects.

Logging comprises about 92% of primary forestry economic activity.

Percent of Direct TIO from Agricultural Inputs, 2011

34%

34%

10%

9%7% 6%

Lawn & Garden Equipment Manuf

Pesticide & Other Ag Chemical Manuf

Farm Machinery & Equipment Manuf

Ag/Forestry Support Activities

Lime & Gypsum Product Manuf

Fertilizer Manuf

Percent of Direct TIO from Forestry Inputs, 2011

92%

8%

Commercial Logging

Forestry, Forest Products, & Timber Tract Production

Estimated Economic Impacts from Agricultural Inputs, 2011 (1,000 $)

TIO Employment (Jobs)Direct Multiplier Total Direct Multiplier Total

Lawn & Garden Equipment Manuf $591,469 1.47 $869,312 1,449 2.30 3,331Pesticide & Other Ag Chemical Manuf $580,254 1.42 $826,091 329 5.92 1,949Farm Machinery & Equipment Manuf $165,429 1.50 $248,890 302 2.90 877Ag/Forestry Support Activities $157,346 1.90 $299,379 7,009 1.16 8,132Lime & Gypsum Product Manuf $127,554 1.76 $224,776 276 3.37 930

Fertilizer Manuf $101,687 1.62 $165,013 84 5.50 462

Total $1,723,739 $2,633,522 9,450 15,680

Estimated Economic Impacts from Forestry Inputs, 2011 Commercial Logging $161,629 1.66 $268,329 2,745 1.39 3,809Forestry, Forest Products, & Timber Tract Production $13,198 1.88 $24,783 57 5.05 286

Total $174,827 $293,112 2,801 4,095

Economic Impacts from Input Supply



Largest direct economic activity cattle ranching and farming ($586.3 million), grain farming ($537.4 million), poultry and egg production ($523.8 million), oilseed farming ($461.3 million), cotton farming ($401.1 million), other crop farming ($337.1 million), greenhouse/ nursery ($316.7 million), and dairy cattle and milk production ($179.1 million).

Largest number of employees grain farming (23,391), oilseed farming (13,182), cattle ranching and farming (10,035), animal production (except cattle/poultry/eggs) (6,823), greenhouse/nursery (5,270), cotton farming (4,446), tobacco farming (3,150), and dairy cattle and milk production (2,854).

For each job created in the industry,

‐Poultry and egg production: .84 additional jobs

‐Cattle ranching & farming: .57 additional jobs

‐Other crop farming: .60 additional jobs

‐Cotton farming: .57 additional jobs

are created in other industries through multiplier effects.

Estimated Economic Impacts from Agriculture, 2011 (1,000 $)

TIO Employment (Jobs)

Direct Multiplier Total% of Total Direct Multiplier Total

Cattle Ranching & Farming $586,323 1.83 $1,070,727 15.8% 10,035 1.57 15,797

Grain Farming $537,449 1.50 $805,673 14.5% 23,391 1.13 26,347

Poultry & Egg Production $523,825 1.47 $768,362 14.1% 2,197 1.84 4,043

Oilseed Farming $461,334 1.38 $635,812 12.4% 13,182 1.15 15,124

Cotton Farming $401,123 1.57 $629,159 10.8% 4,446 1.57 6,968

All Other Crop Farming $337,100 1.58 $533,671 9.1% 3,726 1.60 5,943Greenhouse, Nursery, & Floriculture Production $316,700 1.31 $416,203 8.5% 5,270 1.20 6,330

Dairy Cattle & Milk Production $179,133 1.49 $267,022 4.8% 2,854 1.28 3,662Animal Production, except Cattle/Poultry/Eggs $120,161 1.43 $171,444 3.2% 6,823 1.09 7,464

Tobacco Farming $96,875 1.61 $155,536 2.6% 3,150 1.21 3,817

Vegetable & Melon Farming $89,259 1.44 $128,583 2.4% 1,010 1.50 1,510

Commercial Hunting & Trapping $52,743 1.68 $88,441 1.4% 671 1.45 970

Fruit Farming $9,554 1.44 $13,748 0.3% 126 1.50 188

Tree Nut Farming $761 1.47 $1,116 0.0% 20 1.25 24

Sugarcane & Sugar Beet Farming $0 0.0 $0 0.0% 0 0.0 0

Commercial Fishing $0 0.0 $0 0.0% 0 0.0 0

Total $3,712,339 $5,685,498 76,900 98,187

Economic Impacts from Agriculture



Primary forestry based industries $5.6 billion in economic activity directly and $9.0 billion with multiplier effects.

Primary forest based industries provided 8,914 jobs directly and 31,806 with multiplier effects.

Paper mills provided about 68.8% of the economic activity from primary forestry.

The largest employment multipliers were for paperboard mills (4.65), pulp mills (4.62), and paper mills (4.39).

For each job created,

‐Paperboard mills create an additional 3.65 jobs

‐Paper mills create an additional 3.39 jobs

‐Pulp mills create an additional 3.62 jobs Sawmills create an additional .96 jobs

in other industries through multiplier effects.

Estimated Economic Impacts from Forestry, 2011 (1,000 $)

TIO Employment (Jobs)Direct Multiplier Total Direct Multiplier Total

Paper Mills $3,876,279 1.57 $6,097,224 4,487 4.39 19,708

Paperboard Mills $788,213 1.65 $1,299,729 968 4.65 4,497Sawmills & Wood Preservation $740,628 1.57 $1,162,837 3,148 1.96 6,167

Pulp Mills $228,614 1.71 $390,639 311 4.62 1,434

Total $5,633,735 $8,950,429 8,914 31,806

68.8%

14.0%

13.1%4.1%

Percent of TIO from Forestry, 2011

Paper Mills

Paperboard Mills

Sawmills & Wood Preservation

Pulp Mills

Economic Impacts from Forestry



Estimated Economic Impacts Food and Fiber Products Manufacturing, 2011 (1,000 $)

TIO Employment (Jobs)

Direct Multiplier Total% of Total Direct Multiplier Total

Poultry Processing $2,587,801 1.63 $4,211,383 10.1% 7,031 2.52 17,717Soft Drinks & Ice Manuf $2,467,392 1.51 $2,624,350 9.6% 3,477 3.18 11,072Tobacco Product Manuf $2,099,683 1.25 $2,624,350 8.2% 877 4.13 3,618Wet Corn Milling $1,381,955 1.55 $2,140,613 5.4% 573 10.20 5,842Dog & Cat Food Manuf $1,337,351 1.45 $1,942,066 5.2% 923 5.16 4,763Animal (except Poultry) Slaughtering, Rendering, & Processing $1,323,337 1.37 $1,813,900 5.2% 4,408 1.80 7,957Snack Food Manuf $1,298,816 1.46 $1,901,696 5.1% 1,765 3.26 5,745Cookie, Cracker, & Pasta Manuf $1,196,167 1.62 $1,943,104 4.7% 2,686 2.75 7,386Fluid Milk & Butter Manuf $1,024,863 1.51 $1,547,884 4.0% 989 4.12 4,072Fruit & Vegetable Caning, Pickling, & Drying $1,011,188 1.54 $1,552,200 3.9% 1,864 2.89 5,391Fats & Oils Refining & Blending $870,277 1.37 $1,191,813 3.4% 213 8.61 1,837Frozen Food Manuf $849,256 1.66 $1,410,487 3.3% 2,477 2.49 6,170Distilleries $833,352 1.32 $1,097,477 3.3% 560 3.96 2,219Soybean & Other Oilseed Processing $760,462 1.19 $904,465 3.0% 442 3.19 1,411Bread & Bakery Product Manuf $699,608 1.79 $1,200,014 2.7% 3,866 2.02 7,793Flour Milling & Malt Manuf $523,556 1.65 $862,237 2.0% 458 5.77 2,643Nonchocolate Confectionery Manuf $496,388 1.60 $794,768 1.9% 1,282 2.47 3,165Confectionery Manuf from Purchased Chocolate $488,622 1.55 $755,984 1.9% 1,316 2.27 2,984Fiber, Yarn, & Thread Mills $461,201 1.45 $666,663 1.8% 1,514 1.77 2,675Dry, Condensed, & Evaporated Dairy Product Manuf $447,481 1.57 $701,115 1.7% 559 3.63 2,028Nonwoven Fabric Mills $409,451 1.41 $578,068 1.6% 809 2.31 1,870Men's’ & Boys’ Cut & Sew Apparel Manuf $377,053 1.69 $638,931 1.5% 2,533 1.87 4,736Breakfast Cereal Manuf $369,594 1.50 $553,581 1.4% 421 3.79 1,593

Total $25,624,547 $38,393,393 50,466 133,018

Economic Impacts from Food & Fiber Products Manufacturing



Food and fiber products manufacturing $25.6 billion in direct economic activity and $38.4 in total economic activity.

Employs 50,000 directly and over 133,000 when including multiplier effects.

Within the state, food and fiber manufacturing is very diverse, with only poultry processing holding over a 10% share of direct economic activity.

Poultry processing is followed by soft drinks, tobacco, wet corn milling, and dog and cat food manufacturing in terms of direct economic activity.

Largest employment are poultry (7,031), animal slaughter and processing (4,408), bread and bakery products (3,866), and soft drinks (3,477).

Largest employment multipliers include wet corn milling (10.2), fats and oils refining (8.6), flour milling (5.8), and dog & cat food manufacturing (5.2).

Economic Impacts from Food & Fiber Products Manuf, Contd.

10.1%

9.6%

8.2%

5.4%

5.2%5.2%

5.1%4.7%4.0%3.9%

3.4%3.3%

3.3%3.0%2.7%2.0%

20.9%

Share of Direct Economic Activity from Food & Fiber Prod. Manuf.

Poultry Processing

Soft Drinks & Ice Manuf

Tobacco Product Manuf

Wet Corn Milling

Dog & Cat Food Manuf

Animal (except Poultry) Slaughtering, Rendering, & Processing

Snack Food Manuf

Cookie, Cracker, & Pasta Manuf

Fluid Milk & Butter Manuf

Fruit & Vegetable Caning, Pickling, & Drying

Fats & Oils Refining & Blending

Frozen Food Manuf

Distilleries

Soybean & Other Oilseed Processing

Bread & Bakery Product Manuf

Flour Milling & Malt Manuf

Other



29%

11%

9%7%6%6%

4%4%4%4%3%2%2% 9%

Percent ot TIO from Forestry Products Manufacturing

Paperboard Container Manuf

Upholstered Household Furniture Manuf

Coated & Laminated Paper, Pkging Paper &Plastics Film ManufWood Windows & Doors & Millwork Manuf

Sanitary Paper Product Manuf

Stationery Product Manuf

Manufactured Homes (Mobile Home) Manuf

Showcase, Partition, Shelving, & Locker Manuf

Wood Container & Pallet Manuf

Mattress Manuf

Wood Kitchen Cabinet and Countertop Manuf

All Other Converted Paper Product Manuf

Institutional Furniture Manuf

Estimated Economic Impacts from Forest Products Manufacturing, 2011 (1,000 $) TIO Employment (Jobs)

Direct Multiplier Total Direct Multiplier Total

Paperboard Container Manuf $1,930,704 1.48 $2,856,741 5,054 2.38 12,023

Upholstered Household Furniture Manuf $719,448 1.52 $1,090,046 3,954 1.72 6,784Coated & Laminated Paper, Packaging Paper & Plastics Film Manuf $598,955 1.46 $875,655 1,586 2.24 3,550

Wood Windows & Doors & Millwork Manuf $460,520 1.62 $744,345 2,950 1.72 5,072

Sanitary Paper Product Manuf $399,870 1.37 $547,670 540 2.87 1,548

Stationery Product Manuf $395,067 1.55 $611,444 1,320 2.21 2,913

Manufactured Homes (Mobile Home) Manuf $302,727 1.89 $571,249 1,963 2.02 3,972

Showcase, Partition, Shelving, & Locker Manuf $295,888 1.62 $480,026 1,329 2.00 2,662

Wood Container & Pallet Manuf $254,293 1.60 $407,527 2,181 1.53 3,346

Mattress Manuf $248,122 1.52 $377,745 814 2.17 1,764

Wood Kitchen Cabinet and Countertop Manuf $181,404 1.86 $336,811 1,450 1.85 2,679

All Other Converted Paper Product Manuf $168,062 1.56 $262,926 583 2.19 1,276

Institutional Furniture Manuf $153,013 1.54 $235,726 494 2.24 1,107All Other Paper Bag & Coated & Treated Paper Manuf $134,832 1.47 $197,767 446 2.04 910

Engineered Wood Member & Truss Manuf $102,217 1.54 $157,046 537 1.78 959

All Other Miscellaneous Wood Product Manuf $93,799 1.71 $160,173 595 1.87 1,114

NonupholsteredWood Household Furniture Manuf $69,723 1.64 $114,595 528 1.66 878

Reconstituted Wood Product Manuf $62,454 1.56 $97,213 331 1.75 579Wood Television, Radio, & Sewing Machine Cabinet Manuf $47,719 1.58 $75,163 235 1.95 458

Prefabricated Wood Building Manuf $47,433 1.66 $78,911 348 1.71 596Office Furniture & Custom Architectural Woodwork & Millwork Manuf $42,959 1.74 $74,732 314 1.79 563

Blind & Shade Manuf $22,928 1.70 $39,044 165 1.70 281

Veneer & Plywood Manuf $7,525 1.43 $10,782 35 1.70 60

Total $6,739,661 $10,403,339 27,752 55,094

• 48% of direct TIO from forest products manufacturing are derived from 4 industries: a) paperboard container manufacturing, b) upholstered furniture manufacturing, c) coated and laminated paper manufacturing, and d) wood windows, doors, & millwork.

• The largest employment is in paperboard container manufacturing (5,054), followed by upholstered furniture manufacturing (3,954), wood windows & doors & millwork manuf (2,950), and coated & laminated paper, packaging paper & plastics film manuf (1,586).

Economic Impacts from Forest Prod. Manufacturing



StateProportion of Cropland in

hayAlabama 42%Arkansas 18%Georgia 18%Kentucky 45%Mississippi 15%Missouri 29%North Carolina 16%South Carolina 22%Tennessee 40%Virginia 49%

• 990,000 head of beef cows plus 50,000 head of dairy consumed hay produced on 1.8 million acres.

• Hay production 3.5 million tons.

• Average yield of slightly above 2 tons/acre.

• Avg, annual hay prices less than $60/ton between 1990 and 2005. However, since 2005, hay price greater than $70/ton.

• At 2.5 tons/acre, the breakeven cost of hay production according to TN Extension budgets is $120/ton for cool season grasses. If a clover stand is used in place of nitrogen, the breakeven price is $102/ton assuming the same 2.5 ton/acre yield.

Tennessee Crop Production: Hay

Hay is Produced Across the State

TNNC

MOVA

AR

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Million Acres

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Tennessee

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$/to

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Hay Yields (Excludes Alfalfa) (2011)(tons/acre)

None or Data Not Disclosed

1.0 ‐ 1.7

1.8 ‐ 2.2

2.3 ‐ 2.6

2.7 ‐ 3.2

3.3 ‐ 4.5

Hay Yield, 1990‐2012, Tennessee Hay Price, 1990‐2012, Tennessee

Hay Acres, 1990‐2012, Tennessee



• About 90% of the soybeans required for production processes in the state were imported.

• On the 1.23 million acres, 46.7 million bushels were produced with sales of nearly $682.4 million in 2012.

• Late 1970’s and early 80’s, soybean production was around 70 million bushels with over 2.6 million acres planted. In 2012, AR, KY, MS, MO, and NC planted more soybean acreage than TN.

• 2012 yield per acre 38 bushels. Average yield in 2011 was 32 bushels/acre. Highest recorded occurred in 2009 at 45 bushels per acre.

Tennessee Crop Production: Oilseeds

TNNCAR

Soybean Yields (2011)(bushels/acre)


19.0 ‐ 20.0

20.1 ‐ 30.0

30.1 ‐ 40.0

40.1 ‐ 55.4

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1924

1927

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Thousand Harvested

Acres

Tennessee

Tennessee

Harvested Acreage in soy‐beans, 1924‐2012, Tennessee

Location of Soybean Production, 2011



Location of Corn Production, 2011

Source: NASS Crop Layer

• Of the 2012 TN 960,000 acres planted, 81.6 million bushels were produced with sales near $600 million.

• Over 90% of the grains required for production processes in the state are imported.

• Grains grown in TN in order of acreage include corn, wheat, sorghum, oats, and barley.

• Corn production peaked with nearly 4 million acres planted to corn in early part of last century.

• Average corn yield per planted acre was 85 bushels, the lowest level since 1993 due to drought conditions. Average yield in 2011 was 131 bushels per acre. Highest recorded state average yield occurred in 2009 at 143 bushels per acre.

• Of the states that border TN only MO and KY plant more corn than TN.

Tennessee Crop Production: Corn

TNNCAR

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1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

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1866

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1874

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Harvested

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Harvested Acreage in Corn, 1866‐2012, Tennessee

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Tennessee Corn Yield, 1990‐2012

Corn Yields (2011)(bushels/acre)


78.3 ‐ 80.0

80.1 ‐ 120.0

120.1 ‐ 160.0

160.1 ‐ 234.2



Tennessee Crop Production: Cotton

Location of Cotton Production, 2011

Source: NASS

TNNCAR

Cotton Yields (2011)(bales/acre)


690 ‐ 700

701 ‐ 1,000

1,001 ‐ 1,300

0

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Harvested Acreage in Co on, 1866‐2012, Tennessee

0100200300400500600700800900

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poun

ds/a

cre

Tennessee Co on Yield, 1990‐2012

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

ALABAMA

ARKANSAS

GEORGIA

MISSISSIPPI

MISSOURI

NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINA

TENNESSEE

VIRGINIA

Thousands bales

Co on Produc on, 2012, Ten‐nessee

• TN 2011 cotton receipts $401.1 million.

• Over 46% of the cotton required for production processes in the state is imported.

• Cotton acreage‐peaked in the 1930’s with close to 1.2 million acres harvested; 2006 cotton acreage climbed from 300,000 in the 90’s to 695,000; 2010‐2012 time period cotton acreage averaged 417,000 acres; 2012 harvested acres 375,000.

• Of the states that border TN, GA, AR, MS, NC, and AL plant more cotton than TN.

• Average cotton yield in TN per planted acre was 934 pounds/acre in 2012. During the 2000‐2012 time period, cotton production ranged from a low of 565 pounds/acre in 2007 to a high of 945 in 2006.



Tennessee Crop Production: Nursery & Greenhouse

• Several counties where the share of specialty crops such as nursery, greenhouse, vegetables, and tree nuts exceed 20%.

• 2007 TN greenhouse area was estimated at 4.6 million sq. feet , an increase of 35% over a ten year period. During that same time frame, AL, AR, GA, NC, and SC showed decreases.

• In 2007, Tennessee had the most open nursery acreage of all the states (33,485 acres); 5% increase above the 1997 level but the lowest increase in acreage among the comparison states.

• ERS forecasts specialty crop farm businesses (fruits, vegetables, and nursery/greenhouse) to experience a decline in average net farm income of more than 15 percent in 2013.

• While crop receipts are forecasted to remain the same, expenses are projected to increase. Labor expenses, 1/3 of all cash expenses, are forecast to increase 11% due to increasing wages and output.

Open Area (Acres) Under Protec on (Sq Feet) State 1997 2002 2007 1997 2002 2007Alabama 5,748 7,360 6,758 6,460,217 8,931,841 6,151,997Arkansas 385 886 1,152 681,479 428,922 316,424Georgia 4,972 8,438 7,991 4,210,217 4,928,904 3,633,707Kentucky 4,564 5,422 3,951 443,326 759,618 1,096,239Mississippi 657 1,067 1,525 431,599 406,933 760,614Missouri 3,419 4,625 4,237 253,326 466,791 361,882North Carolina 16,459 18,423 23,333 5,691,004 5,220,882 4,824,577South Carolina 6,612 (D) 7,341 3,688,569 3,546,914 1,490,449Tennessee 31,900 38,953 33,485 3,390,961 4,390,778 4,599,100Virginia 10,445 11,062 11,955 2,093,861 2,986,186 5,711,566

Area in Nurseries, Open and Protected, 1997, 2002, and 2007, by State

Nursery Sales, 2007

State Value Alabama 99,704,294Arkansas (D) Georgia 125,233,223Kentucky 23,635,510Mississippi 16,972,224Missouri 25,335,095North Carolina 251,810,276South Carolina 91,395,683Tennessee 177,221,588Virginia 96,564,870

Value of Nursery, Greenhouse, Floriculture, and Sod Sold as a Percent of Total Market Value of

Agricultural Products Sold: 2007



Beef Sales 1990-2012, Selected StatesCattle prices by State for Various Years

State 2011Average(22 years)

Average(5 Years)

$/lbAlabama 0.91 0.71 0.79 Arkansas 0.91 0.71 0.84Georgia 0.98 0.66 0.79 Kentucky 1.09 0.77 0.93 Mississippi 0.98 0.69 0.79 Missouri 1.24 0.85 1.00 North Carolina 0.95 0.69 0.76 South Carolina 0.90 0.68 0.80 Tennessee 0.97 0.71 0.83 Virginia 0.96 0.71 0.84

Tennessee Livestock Production: Beef

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Head

ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY

MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA

TENNESSEE VIRGINIA

Beef Cattle (2011)(head)


400 ‐ 5,000

5,001 ‐ 15,000

15,001 ‐ 30,000

30,001 ‐ 58,000

Tennessee Beef, by County, 2007

!

!

!

!

!

!

!!Memphis

Jackson

Nashville

Knoxville

Manchester

Union City

Chattanooga

Johnson City

Giles

Shelby

Dyer

Scott

Knox

WaynePolk

Sevier

HenryObion

Fayette

Maury

CarrollGibson

Greene

Blount

Hardin

Wilson

Monroe

Lincoln

Cocke

Perry

Sumner

Hickman

MarionFranklin

Tipton

Weakley

Rhea

Coffee

Morgan

Lawrence

Stewart

McNairy

Madison

Dickson

White

HamiltonHardeman

Roane

Clay

Fentress

Bedford

Warren

Carter

Hawkins

Davidson

Haywood

Cumberland

Rutherford

Sullivan

Smith

OvertonCampbell

Bledsoe

Williamson

Putnam

McMinnLewis

Grundy

Robertson

Humphreys

Claiborne

Henderson

DeKalb

Macon

Lauderdale

Bradley

Montgomery

JacksonUnion

Chester

JeffersonBenton

Decatur

Lake

Marshall

Johnson

Anderson

Meigs

Grainger

LoudonCannon

Unicoi

Crockett

CheathamWashington

Pickett Hancock

Houston

Van Buren

Sequatchie

Hamblen

Moore

Trousdale

12

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4

5

6

7

8

9 10

11

1213

14

15

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1819

Federally Inspected Slaughter Facili es

• 2011 direct output from cattle ranching and farming $586 million.

• 2011 TN farmers sold 325,000 head.

• 2011 price received by producers (receipts/production) was $0.97/pound.

• Over past 5 years, the average price received $0.83/pound; over last 22 years the average price $0.71/pound (nominal dollars). Other states received higher prices in part because they finished a larger percentage of their cattle.

• For a steer purchased at $516 (450 pounds) and feed on fescue, the breakeven price is $1.10/pound assuming no return for land or management (2007$).

• 19 federally inspected slaughter facilities scattered across the state.

• About 48.3% of the dollar value of input needs for animal slaughtering, rendering, & processing are met from out of state.



Tennessee Livestock Production: Dairy

Value of production less total costs, 2011 = $20.92/cwt—$34.78/cwt= ‐$13.96/cwt

StateMilk Cows (1,000 hd.)

Milk/Cow (lbs)

Milk Production (mil. Lbs.)

Fluid Grade AvgReturns per Cwt

Cash Receipts ($1,000)

$331,934GA 79 17,671 1,396 $18.40 $254,840VA 95 18,095 1,719 $19.40 $236,052KY 78 14,769 1,152 $17.90 $204,239NC 44 19,636 864 $19.30 $165,401TN 52 16,346 850 $17.90 $151,434SC 16 17,875 286 $19.90 $56,317MS 17 13,118 223 $18.40 $40,664AL 11 14,455 159 $19.80 $30,810AR 12 12,750 153 $17.10 $25,821

Year Licensed Dairy Herds2006 6502007 5902008 5502009 5302010 490

2011 450

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

PoundsTN Total Milk Production 1990‐2012

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

PoundsTN Milk Production Per Cow 1990‐2012

26%

20%18%

14%

6%

4%3%

2%2%

2%1% 1%

1%0%

0% 0% 0%

Purchased feedCapital recovery of machinery and equipmentOpportunity cost of unpaid laborHomegrown harvested feedHired laborFuel, lube, and electricityRepairsVeterinary and medicineCustom servicesGeneral farm overheadTaxes and insuranceGrazed feedMarketingBedding and litterOpportunity cost of land (rental rate)Interest on operating capitalOther operating costs

Tennessee Dairy Operating Cost Shares, 2011

TN milk production has fallen over time.

Milk production per cow has risen over time, topping 16,000 pounds per year per cow by 2012.

The current number of licensed dairy farms is between 400 and 450 and has declined steadily over time.

Dairy cattle inventory is highest in northeast Tennessee and the Tennessee Valley, with some inventory also in middle Tennessee.

TN is ranked 6th regionally in terms of value of production.

Purchased feed, capital recovery, opportunity cost of unpaid labor, homegrown feed, and hired labor constitute the largest cost shares.

In 2011, the total costs were estimated to be greater than value of production at ‐$13/96/cwt.

For fluid milk and butter manuf., the state imports from out of state about 56.7% of the value of its input needs, 66.1% for cheese, 57.1% for dried and condensed milk, and 51.5% for ice cream and frozen desserts.



Tennessee Livestock Production: Pork

Hog, Barrow, and Gilt Prices $/cwt, 2010, Average 2006‐2010, by State

State 2010 5 year averageAlabama $53.10 $45.08

Arkansas $50.30 $44.66 Georgia $55.60 $49.52

Kentucky $54.80 $46.12 Mississippi $51.00 $44.26 Missouri $49.10 $42.18 North Carolina $54.80 $48.06 South Carolina $55.20 $48.34

Tennessee $54.00 $45.80

Virginia $53.00 $46.60

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Thousands

ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY MISSISSIPPI

MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE VIRGINIA

Hogs Sold, by Head and Selected State, 1988‐2011

Hogs (2007)(head)

Data Not Disclosed

None

6 ‐ 30,000

30,001 ‐ 60,000

60,001 ‐ 200,000

Tennessee Hog Production, 2007

0

5

10

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Hog to Corn Price Ratio, Tennessee, 1970‐2011

December Hog Inventory, Tennessee, 1990‐2011

1990 TN producers sold nearly 1.5 million head of hogs, barrows, and gilts. By 2011 this decreased to 390,000 head.

December inventory declined from a high of 670,000 head in 1991 to the current level of 150,000 head.

2011 price received by producers (receipts/ production) $54.00/cwt. Over the past 5 years, average price received $45.80/cwt (nominal dollars). Other states had similar price levels. Georgia leads the region with a 5 year average of nearly $50/cwt and MO has the lowest price in the study region.

2011 TN cash receipts for hog and pig production $510 million.

Iowa Extension is forecasting a $20 loss per hog this year as a result of feed costs.

2011 TN hog to corn price ratio for 2011 $54/cwt÷ $6.56/bushel = 8.23.

2007 140,000 head; 36,000 in Weakly County and over 30,000 in Henry County. Lawrence, Franklin, Macon, and Gibson Counties had between 3 and 8 thousand head.

TN farms with hogs has declined. In 1980, 33,000 farms that sold hogs. In 2007 there were 1,500. Over the past decade the number of farms fluctuated between 1,700 and 1,100.



Tennessee Livestock Production: Poultry

Selected Poultry Products by State, 2002 & 2007Layers Pullets Broilers

State 2002 2007 2002 2007 2002 2007Number (1,000)

Alabama 9,656 9,624 4,950 5,436 158,297 178,339Arkansas 13,190 13,978 6,045 8,075 181,555 202,398Georgia 20,022 19,273 7,385 7,675 204,678 235,400Kentucky 4,343 4,585 1,583 1,797 44,714 49,777Mississippi 5,386 6,237 2,479 3,591 134,738 150,597Missouri 6,978 7,249 2,350 2,695 33,511 46,654North Carolina 10,150 12,748 5,705 7,130 149,440 149,922South Carolina 5,584 4,714 1,333 1,710 32,372 45,792Tennessee 1,161 1,713 778 974 25,608 40,040Virginia 3,222 3,208 1,277 1,188 45,430 43,745

Turkey Production, Measured in Pounds, 2011, Average 2007‐2011, by State

State 2011 5 year average

1,000 lbsArkansas 603,900 581,380Missouri 568,750 611,840North Carolina 1,132,800 1,109,390South Carolina 448,500 433,848Virginia 460,250 464,980

In 2007, GA leading state in numbers of layers and broilers and was second to AR for pullets. TN last for the numbers of layers, pullets, and broilers.

For 2011, the states having the largest turkey production NC, AR, MO, VA, and SC. For the five year period 2007 to 2011, the states with the largest average turkey production NC, MO, AR, VA and SC.

The average federally inspected slaughtering of young chickens for Tennessee between 2001 and 2012 was 262.7 million head. Georgia was the largest (1,250.6) head followed by AR (1,085.9) and AL (1,047.5). Tennessee was ranked last for the surrounding states evaluated.

2011 TN cash receipts for broilers, eggs, and farm chickens $461.1 million, $59.7 million, and $2.1 million, respectively.

For poultry processing, nearly 60% of the value of inputs purchased were from out of state sources.

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1,200.0

1,400.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Million He

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Federally Inspected Young Chickens Slaughtered, Selected States,



Tennessee Livestock Production: Sheep

Sheep (Excl Lambs) Prices Received ($/cwt), 2010, Average 2006‐2010, by State State 2010 5 year average Kentucky $55.30 $41.44 Missouri $52.40 $37.66 North Carolina $50.00 $40.60 Tennessee $50.00 $38.60 Virginia $51.30 $39.56

Wool Produc on (Pounds), 2012, Average 2008‐2012, by State

State 2012 5 year average Kentucky 95,000 83,000 Missouri 270,000 335,000 North Carolina 35,000 37,400 Tennessee 100,000 102,000 Virginia 200,000 188,000

Sheep & Lambs (2007)(head)

Data Not Disclosed

None

16 ‐ 750

751 ‐ 1,500

1,501 ‐ 3,000

3,001 ‐ 5,000

Tennessee Sheep/Lambs Production, 2007

GilesShelby

DyerKnox

Scott

Wayne

Polk

Sevier

Henry

Fayette

Maury

Obion

Carroll

Hardin

Gibson

Blount

GreeneWilson

Monroe

Lincoln

Cocke

Perry

Sumner

Marion

Hickman

Franklin

TiptonRhea

Weakley

Morgan

Coffee

LawrenceMcNairy

Stewart

Madison

HamiltonHardeman

Dickson

White

Clay

Roane

Warren

Fentress

Bedford

Carter

Hawkins

Davidson

Haywood

CumberlandRutherford

Sullivan

SmithOverton

Campbell

Williamson

Putnam

McMinnLewis

Grundy

Humphreys

Robertson Claiborne

Henderson

DeKalb

Macon

Lauderdale

Bradley

Montgomery

JacksonUnion

JeffersonBenton

BledsoeDecatur

Lake

MarshallChester

Johnson

Meigs

Anderson

Grainger

LoudonCannon

Unicoi

Crockett

Cheatham Washington

Pickett Hancock

Houston

Van Buren

Sequatchie

Hamblen

Moore

Trousdale

Wool Production (2007)(Pounds)

Data Not DisclosedNone1 ‐ 500501 ‐ 1,000

1,001 ‐ 1,5001,501 ‐ 2,000> 2,000

Pounds of Wool Produced on Sheep/Lamb Farms in Tennessee by County, 2007

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

1920

1923

1926

1929

1932

1935

1938

1941

1944

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

Thou

sand

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Sheep & Lamb Inventory, Head and Selected States, 1920‐2011 From 1980 to 2007, number of farms with sheep in the state increased 188.9 percent.

2010 TN sheep and lamb production ranked 30th in the U.S. and ranked second in the nation in percentage growth.

Since 1984 TN sheep prices (excludes lambs) increased an average of 5.4 percent per year.

2007 sheep and lamb numbers estimated at 29,751 in TN with Sullivan County having the largest number (1,904) followed by Greene (1,523), Washington (1,431), Wilson (1,137), and Giles (983) Counties.

2007 TN pound s wool produced 100,029. Largest wool producing counties Sullivan (10,454 pounds), followed by Greene (7,194 pounds), Jefferson (4,604 pounds), Lincoln (3,951 pounds), and Wilson (3,734 pounds)

2011 TN cash receipts for sheep and lamb production for 2010 totaled close to $2.5 million.



State Populations for 2011, 30‐Year Change in Population, and Proportion in Rural Counties

State Population 30 Year ChangeProportion in Rural Counties

Alabama 4,802,740 123.3% 28.4%Arkansas 2,937,979 128.5% 39.4%Georgia 9,815,210 179.7% 18.8%Kentucky 4,369,356 119.4% 41.7%Missouri 6,010,688 122.2% 26.9%Mississippi 2,978,512 118.2% 54.8%North Carolina 9,656,401 164.2% 29.4%

South Carolina 4,679,230 149.9% 23.3%Tennessee 6,403,353 139.5% 26.4%Virginia 8,096,604 151.4% 13.7%

Demographics: Population

• Tennessee 4th most populous state with 6.4 million residents in 2011.

• Between 1980 and 2011, TN population grew by 139.5%, 5th fastest growing state. GA fastest (179.7%) while MS slowest (118.2%) increase in population.

• Tennessee 4th lowest percentage of its population living in rural counties with a rural population of 26.4%. MS greatest (54.8%), VA smallest (13.7%).



Per Capita Income , 2011 (State Sorted)State Rural Urban State U‐RVA $31,883 $48,371 $46,107 $16,488MO $30,873 $40,574 $37,968 $9,701TN $29,376 $39,145 $36,567 $9,769NC $30,877 $38,173 $36,028 $7,296GA $27,915 $37,844 $35,979 $9,929AL $30,473 $36,627 $34,879 $6,154KY $28,767 $37,718 $33,988 $8,951AR $30,002 $36,167 $33,739 $6,165SC $30,304 $34,323 $33,388 $4,019MS $29,550 $34,965 $32,000 $5,415

Demographics: Per Capita Income

• 2011 TN 3rd highest state‐level per capita income of region ($36,568).

• Because of a number of northern counties in VA lie within the Washington, DC metropolitan area, Virginia’s state‐level per capita income is $9,540 above MO, the state with the next highest income among the ten.

• VA is the least rural state in the study.

• Excluding VA, the 2011 state‐level per capita income of the remaining nine states fall within a $5,968 range.

• At $29,376, TN 2011 per capita income for rural counties is 3rd from the smallest.

• Gap between 2011 per capita income in rural and urban counties in TN $9,769.

• 2011 TN rural per capita income is 75 percent of the urban per capita income.

• While the range of the 2011 state‐level urban per capita income among the ten states is $14,048, the range for rural counties is much smaller at $3,968.

Per Capita Income , 2011 (Rural Sorted)State Rural Urban State U‐RVA $31,883 $48,371 $46,107 $16,488NC $30,877 $38,173 $36,028 $7,296MO $30,873 $40,574 $37,968 $9,701AL $30,473 $36,627 $34,879 $6,154SC $30,304 $34,323 $33,388 $4,019AR $30,002 $36,167 $33,739 $6,165MS $29,550 $34,965 $32,000 $5,415TN $29,376 $39,145 $36,567 $9,769KY $28,767 $37,718 $33,988 $8,951GA $27,915 $37,844 $35,979 $9,929



• Tennessee 4th lowest level of poverty in region (21.3%).

• Though Tennessee’s per capita income for rural counties was 3rd from lowest among the ten states, that low level of income was not fully reflected in the state’s rural poverty rate.

• Range of poverty rates among the states was 17.5%‐25.9%.

• Tennessee’s rate was close in range with AR and AL.

• Tennessee 3rd lowest level of food insecure households for the 2009‐2011 period and appears to be reflective of the relatively low rural poverty rate.

Poverty Rate, 2011State Rural Urban StateAL 21.8% 18.1% 19.1%AR 21.9% 17.5% 19.3%GA 24.9% 18.0% 19.2%KY 23.4% 16.0% 19.1%MO 19.4% 14.5% 15.8%MS 25.9% 19.1% 22.8%NC 20.3% 16.7% 17.8%SC 22.5% 17.7% 18.8%TN 23.3% 17.3% 18.4%VA 17.5% 10.7% 11.6%

Demographics: Poverty and Food Insecurity

Food Insecure Households, 2009‐2011 AverageState Insecure Ins+VLAL 18.2% 25.3%AR 19.2% 26.8%GA 17.4% 23.8%KY 16.4% 23.0%MO 16.0% 22.7%MS 19.2% 26.3%NC 17.1% 22.9%SC 14.8% 19.2%TN 15.2% 21.6%VA 9.1% 12.3%



Not Graduated from HS, 2007‐2011 AverageState Rural Urban

AL 22.9% 16.1%AR 20.3% 15.3%GA 23.0% 14.3%KY 24.7% 13.6%MO 17.9% 11.4%MS 23.1% 15.4%NC 20.2% 14.0%SC 20.5% 15.1%TN 22.3% 14.7%VA 22.5% 11.8%

• In every state except MO, over 1/5 of adults 25 and over lacked a high school education. Tennessee was in the middle of the pack at 5th from the lowest percentage of adults who are without a high school education.

• Because the poll of high school graduates in any year is small relative to the pool of adults 25 and over it will take a sustained effort in rural education to bring Tennessee’s percentage of adults not graduating from high school down to the level of Missouri.

• Tennessee ranked lowest among the ten states in the percentage of residents of rural counties who had graduated from college.

• In contrast, Tennessee ranks 5thhighest in the percentage of urban residents with a college degree. That would suggest that job opportunities for Tennessee’s college graduates are limited, relative to the other nine states.

Demographics: Education Level

College Graduates, 2007‐2011 AverageState Rural Urban

AL 15.4% 24.7%AR 13.8% 23.6%GA 14.6% 30.6%

KY 13.7% 25.8%MO 15.4% 29.1%MS 16.2% 24.0%NC 17.4% 30.6%SC 18.7% 25.9%TN 13.4% 26.7%VA 16.2% 37.5%



Average Age of Farmers, 2007 CensusState Age in YearsARKANSAS 54.3

KENTUCKY 54.3MISSOURI 55.0

N. CAROLINA 55.1

ALABAMA 55.4

TENNESSEE 55.4

GEORGIA 55.6

VIRGINIA 55.7

MISSISSIPPI 56.2

S. CAROLINA 56.2

Percent of Farmers with Farming As Principal Occupation, 2007 CensusState PercentN. CAROLINA 43.5%

ARKANSAS 42.0%

GEORGIA 40.3%

VIRGINIA 40.0%

MISSOURI 38.7%

ALABAMA 38.0%

KENTUCKY 37.6%

MISSISSIPPI 36.5%

TENNESSEE 36.4%

S. CAROLINA 36.2%

Demographics: Farmer Demographics

43.5% 42.0% 40.3% 40.0% 38.7% 38.0% 37.6% 36.5% 36.4%36.2%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%

% Principal Occup. Farming

Principal Occupation Farming

0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%

Sales Per Farm Category

Tennessee Farm Sales Categories

Share of Farms

Share of Sales

54.3 54.3

55 55.155.4 55.4 55.6 55.7

56.2 56.2

5353.554

54.555

55.556

56.5

Years Average Age of Farmers

• The average age of TN farmers according to the 2007 Census was 55.4 years, in the mid‐range for the region. SC oldest (56.2 years), and AR and KY youngest (54.3 years).

• Tennessee had the next to lowest percent of farmers indicating farming as their principal occupation at 36.4%. Only SC was lower and NC was highest.

• The low percentage of TN farmers indicating farming as their principal occupation is likely related to TN farm size‐‐most farms < $20,000 in sales. As seen green bar in the graph, 30% of farm sales were held by farms with $500,000 or more.

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