comftf07causal analysis rev 03-12-06

8/14/2019 COMFTF07Causal Analysis Rev 03-12-06.

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Cause/Effect

Most Important of Logical Relationships

We want to know not only what happens but why

it happens.

We want to know why national debt cant be

brought under control.

We want to know why we have unemployment.

We want to know why our cities decay from theinside out.

We want to know the effects of using pesticides.


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Cause/Effect

. We want to know the cause of our young people takingLSD and Crack..

We want to know the short and long range effects of theiracquired habit.

We want to know why gang violence is on the increasein the affluent suburbs.

GM, Ford, and Chrysler want to know why the Japaneseand German car manufacturers are beating the pants off

from them. Divorced people want to know why their marriages fell

apart.

.


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Cause/Effect

Causal reasoning may move in either

direction from the cause to the effect or the

effect to the cause.

As a matter of fact, the effect may become

another cause.


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Cause /Effect Work piles up. I feel under stress because of the work piling up.

I sip three glasses of Vodka to relieve stress.

I become mellow and allow work to pile up.

I feel anxiety because while I became inebriatedmore work piled up.

I down myself for letting work pile up.

I feel guilty in so doing. The guilt leads to stress.

I sip three glasses of Vodka to relive stress..


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Cause/Effect

Dr. Albert Ellis in his bookOvercomingProcrastination illustrates how an effect can becomea further cause:

Consider Debbies problem of doing the dishes:

Activating Event- observing dirty dishes in thesink.

Beliefs- How annoying to clean them, but Idbetter. (rational).

I cant stand this mess. It looks too tough to tackle.(irrational)


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Cause/Effect

Consequence- frustration.(rational)

Reaction- do the dishes.(rational)

or--avoid doing the dishes. (irrational)(Ellis, Overcoming Procrastination, p29-

30)


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Cause/Effect

Thirteen-year-old Paul keeps thinking he would like to

clean up part of the cellar at his parents house in order to

make a game room.

He has contemplated this for the past three years and,rather than getting started, he tries not to think about the

long-delayed project because when he reminds himself to

do some work he lambasts himself for the time he

already has wasted. (Ellis, Overcoming Procrastination,

P.9)


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Cause/Effect

. The next portion of this lesson we will

stress terminology, stages in causal

reasoning, and a list of problems that

frequently occur in causal analysis.


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Cause/ Effect

We can classify causes as Necessary,Sufficient, orContributory .


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Cause/Effect

Necessary

Sufficient

Contributory


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Cause/Effect

Necessary Causes

The necessary cause must be present in order for the effect tooccur.

For example, the Flu virus must be present in order for the effect

(the disease) to occur. A person may make himself more susceptible by staying up until

4:00 AM.

A person may make himself more susceptible by a haphazarddiet of junk food.

A person may make himself more susceptible by walkingaround in the rain with no shoes.


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Cause/Effect

A person may make himself more susceptibleby sitting in a draft.

But we can consider none of these items as thenecessary cause of the Flu. The Flu Bug has to

attack before the willfully derelict individual getsthe Flu.

Example: Necessary Cause: A spark is necessary toignite a gasoline engine.

The HIV virus must be present for AIDS to occur.


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Cause/Effect

A Sufficient Cause has the capability of

producing an effect unaided. More than one

sufficient cause may produce the same effect.Example: A cough can be produced by a cold

virus, pneumonia, emphysema, lung cancer,

tuberculosis, an abscess on the larynx, smog,

tobacco juice, Tabasco sauce,or chalk dust.


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Cause/Effect

: A dead battery can prevent a car from

starting, but so can a faulty spark-plug,

water in the distributor, or no gasoline.


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Cause/Effect

Personal Example

Fuel Filter


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Cause/Effect

Sufficient Causes

Fuel Filter

Fuel Pump


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Cause/Effect

Sufficient Causes:

Fuel Filter

Fuel Pump


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Cause/Effect

Sufficient Causes:

Fuel Filter

Fuel PumpCarburetor


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Cause/Effect

Sufficient Causes:

Fuel Filter

Fuel PumpCarburetor

Water in Gas Tank


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Cause/Effect

Contributory Causes

A contributory cause can help to produce an effect, butcannot do so by itself.

Example: Running through a red light may cause an

accident. Example: Skipping class may cause a failing grade when

linked with other causes.

Example: Smoking may contribute to lung cancer, but it is

not necessarily the major cause or the sole cause.( Thebody can withstand remarkable abuse).


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Cause/Effect

Stages in Causal Reasoning

James Mc Crimmon has identified three stages in causalreasoning:

1. Whatever the cause, it must exist in the situation

and must be sufficient to produce the effect. This step requires the investigator to identify all of the

possible causes, isolating which of the possible causescould be sufficient to produce the effect.


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Cause/Effect

Example: The cold water in the Dorm shower

could be caused from:

a defective fuse

power company failure

burned out element

excessive use of shower by room mate

Any one of these (with the possible exception ofthe last one) could bring about the effect unaided.


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Cause/Effect

2. If a sufficient cause is eliminated from thesituation, the effect will be eliminated unless thereare other causes. If the effect ceases when we remove

the possible cause, the possible cause is the cause. Example: If we suspect that a faulty bulb is the cause

for no light, we simply make a substitution-with a newbulb. If it is the cause we look no further , not ruling out

the possibility that the original bulb may only be acontributory cause.


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Cause/Effect

3. If the cause is introduced into a similar situation,it should bring about a similar effect.

Example: If we suspect a faulty battery, fuse, or bulb, we

could insert one into a different socket or receptaclewhere one has been operating. If the battery or fusedoesnt work, or the light doesnt turn on, we reject ourhypothesis. But if the fuse or battery work or thelightbulb turns on, we have additional support for our

belief in the original hypothesis.


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Cause/Effect

Errors in Causal Reasoning

Louise Rohrabacher has identified ten

separate errors in causal reasoning:


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Cause/Effect

1. Mistaking a time connection for a

causal one.

This error has sometimes been referred to as

thePost Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

fallacy, translated into English as After

this , therefore because of this.


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Cause/Effect

Superstitions are based upon this fallacy:

After I touched the toad, I got warts.

An owl hooted before Uncle Marvins death. An

owl hooting will somehow bring about death. Labor Day, because it always occurs before the

opening of school must somehow cause the opening of

school.

The 9:00 class occurs before the 10:00 class. The9:00 class must cause the 10:00 class.


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Cause/Effect

I dont want to hold hands with any girl.

When Travis held Cindys hand, he

flunked his spelling test.

After Hoover was elected, we had a

Depression. Hoover caused the Depression.


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Cause/Effect

2. Mistaking for a cause things that

coincidentally happen at the same time- also

known as the concurrent fallacy.

If two things are concurrent ( take place at thesame time), It does not mean that they are related.

Example: If the Southern Baptist Convention and

the National Gay Coalition hold their meetings inthe same city or perhaps the same hotel, we cannot

assume that the two events must be related.


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Cause/Effect

Example: Colored leaves in the fall arebelieved to be caused by the frost.

Some things are genuinely coincidentalsuch as the incident in which a young ladyaccused a man of following her when

actually they were going in the samedirection at the same time for a totallyunrelated reason.


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Cause/Effect

3. Beware of thesingle cause fallacy.We cannot settle for one single cause if

there are more. Most effects stem from multiple causes

rather than just one. Remember, the last

straw did not break the camels back byitself. The single cause fallacy results fromjumping to conclusions.


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Cause/Effect

Example: A motorist hears someone honking at

him. He jumps to the conclusion that they want

him to go faster. Other reasons the other motorist

may be honking could include: His transmission may be coming loose

He may be honking because he recognizes him

He may have a bumper sticker which reads,Honk if you love Jesus.


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Cause/Effect

Many newspaper headlines reveal the

single cause fallacy:

Sex education causes promiscuity.

Television destroys a students capacity

to read.

Comic books cause juvenile

delinquency.


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Cause/Effect

James Mc Crimmon suggests that attributing racial

strife to differences in skin color ignores the other

social and economic causes.

Randal Decker suggests that the writer whobrings his old prejudices to the task of causal

analysis or fails to see the probability of multiple

causes or effects is certain to destroy his analysis,

making it so superficial it becomes worthless.


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Cause/Effect

Be sure to distinguish between immediate

and remote causes.

Example: Instructor Why are you here at Texas

College? Student: Because my father married my mother.

This line of reasoning starts back too far. We needto look at the immediate rather than the remote

causes.


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Cause/Effect

Example: Why did Jeffrey Dhamer slay thoseyoung boys and have homosexual relations withthem?

Well, it all started with Cain and Abel. or It allstarted when Lucifer decided to rebel againstGod.

Why is Elizabeth Taylors marriage on the rocks?

It all started in the Garden of Eden when Evedecided to eat the forbidden fruit.


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Cause/Effect

Closing of Canning Factory

Filthy rag last straw

Symbol managements refusal to replacepipes and equipment


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Cause/Effect

Ever pervasive desire to make profit

Higher production costs

Labor costs

Weather factors

Economic well-being of nation.


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Cause/Effect

In 1991, Iraqi Foreign Minister Teriq Azizinsisted that Iraq invaded Kuwait because Israeloccupied the West Bank.

Such tangential remote excuses for suchbizarre behavior doesnt even qualify as arationalization.

represents a tortured extremely remote cause.


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Cause/Effect

5. Be sure the cause has the capacity to produce the effect.

Louise Rohrabacher describes an incident in which aperson leaves a big juicy beef steak on the table. When hereturned, the steak was gone. If a huge Great Dane or Black

Labrador were left in the house, and perhaps furthercircumstantial evidence appeared such as red bloody juicedripping from the muzzle, distended ribs on the dog, asheepish look on the dogs face, etc., we have a primesuspect. A lone kitten asleep in the corner would be

exonerated.


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Cause/Effect

Back in 1349, the Black Death wiped

out 2/3 of Europes population. The Jews

were blamed for poisoning the wells. There

were not that many Jews in all of Europe toaccomplish such a task.


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Cause/Effect

A story circulated about a man who wentdown in a mine with a hammer and saw.The mine later collapsed and the man was

blamed. It was later determined that thewidth of the beams and the sturdiness of thestructure made it impossible for the man toinflict that much damage and eventually

another explanation was sought.


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Cause/Effect

Proponents of Womens Suffrage felt that the votewould cure societys ills and bring equality for all.

Proponents of the ERA amendment naivelyassume the same thing. The ERA will probably beas effective at promoting equality as the balanced

budget amendment will bring our deficit undercontrol.

The O.E.O. did not do away with poverty.


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Cause/Effect

The crime bill, replete with midnight basketballand handicrafts will not do away with gangviolence.

Economic ills cannot be treated until thecomplexity of the issue is addressed and the greedfactor of human nature is checked.

The argument that productivity itself will improve

the economy fails to take into account thatproductivity by itself will not bring down pricesunless companies are willing to turn out more forless profit.


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Cause/Effect

7. Allow for causes that may nullify predicted

effects.

Example: The increase in the minimum wage is a

short sighted view some labor leaders see as asolution. But wage increases lead to higher prices to

pay for the wage increases-leading to another

unfortunate effect -a higher cost of living- refueling

a demand for another wage increase.


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Cause/Effect

Example: When the federal government

closed down Fort Ord and the San Diego

Shipyard, it did so as an economy move,

not realizing that depressing the localeconomy created a greater demand for

disaster relief, wiping out all the economic

gains.


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Cause/Effect

Example: People feel more empowered

if they are given more credit,

but the more credit one has, the more the

bank reckons the liabilities potential.

If you can borrow $50,000 on your

signature, you can also owe the bank

$50,000 on your signature.


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Cause/Effect

Example: Governmental subsidies can prop

up prices artificially, but can weaken

companys resolve to compete in the world

market.


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Cause/Effect

8. Avoid predicting contradictory effects.

Example: Sometimes it is impossible for two

predicted effects to exist side by side. Louise Rohrabacher once used the example of a

politician who promised to lower taxes, increase

public works, increase military spending and

social programs, and balance. the budget.


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Cause/Effect

Example: Hillary Clintons recent health

care package which would have

commandeered 1/7 of the national

economy would cost the average tax payermore, and would not constitute free health

care at all.


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Cause/Effect

9. Do not mistake the cause for the effect

or the effect for the cause.

Example: Louise Rohrabacher suggests

that Medieval philosophers tried to

substantiate the goodness of God because

He made a great river run through every

city.


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Cause/Effect

Example: We hear about the old farmer

who says, If Id Known I was going to

have such nice children I would have

picked a better mother for em. (notrealizing that the mother was a contributory

cause of his nice children.)


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Cause/Effect

Example: We hear the caution, Dont eat

too much sugar. You will get diabetes.

Actually , sugar consumption is a symptom,

not a cause of diabetes.


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Cause/Effect

Example: When people think that a high

fever causes the Flu, they will think that

putting ice packs on their forehead will

actually cure the Flu.


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Cause/Effect

Example: When a motorist blames a cars

inefficiency on the knocking of the engine,

he might be tempted to muffle the sound,

masking the real problem.


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Cause/Effect

Example: The driver blames a failing

brake or road conditions for his own

carelessness.

Example: The tailgater blames the car in

front of him for stopping abruptly.


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Cause/Effect

Example: The musician blames a faulty

spit valve or too much resin on the bow or

bad action on the piano keys.(Instead of his

own lack of practice.)


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Cause/Effect

Example: The student who procrastinates

on his research paper blames a computer

failure or the perennial, the dog peed on

it excuse for his own laziness.


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Cause/Effect

Example: We hear the old story of the man

who goes into the radio station for a job interview.

Man wh wh wh where ah ah ah ah ah are th

th th in in in inter views fo fo fo for th th th the a

a a an n n n n nounce er j j j j job


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Cause/Effect

Receptionist: Go down the hall and turn to

the right at the first door.


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Cause/Effect

After a few minutes the man returned down

the hall , sighing, j j j j ju ju ju jus just a a

a as as as I I I I th th th th thought s s s s s same o

o o old s s s story. Th th th th they j j j j just wowo wo wo wont h h h hi hi hire a a an an any C C

C C C Ca Ca Ca Catholics.

comftf07causal analysis rev 03-12-06

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