1

Comments on Food Prices

Markets & Economic Research CentreNAMC14 October2015

2

Outline of presentation

1. International Food Price Index2. Food Price Monitoring3. Opportunities4. Policy Recommendations5. Concluding Remarks

International food prices

Source: FAO, 2015 3

Overall annual averages of real food price index, 2008-2014

01/01/1

0

01/03/1

0

01/05/1

0

01/07/1

0

01/09/1

0

01/11/1

0

01/01/1

1

01/03/1

1

01/05/1

1

01/07/1

1

01/09/1

1

01/11/1

1

01/01/1

2

01/03/1

2

01/05/1

2

01/07/1

2

01/09/1

2

01/11/1

2

01/01/1

3

01/03/1

3

01/05/1

3

01/07/1

3

01/09/1

3

01/11/1

3

01/01/1

4

01/03/1

4

01/05/1

4

01/07/1

4

01/09/1

4

01/11/1

4

01/01/1

5

01/03/1

5

01/05/1

5

01/07/1

5100

150

200

250

300

350

Meat Price Index Dairy Price Index Cereals Price Index Oils Price Index Sugar Price Index

Inde

x (2

002

-200

4 =1

00)

Meat (0.30 %), Cereals (2.05 %) and the Sugar Price (2.50 %) Indexes increased month-on-month, from June 2015 to July 2015, while the Dairy (-7.15 %) and Oils Price (-5.48 %) Indexes decreased from June 2015 to July 2015.

2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Annual averages

Fo

od

Pri

ce

Ind

ex

(2

00

2 -

20

04

= 1

00

)

4

Headline CPI and food and non-alcoholic beverage CPI

Source: Stats SA, 2015

Headline CPI Aug 2015: 4.6 %

Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages price index Aug 2015: 4.3 %

Year-on-Year: Aug 2014 vs. Aug 2015

and

Month-on-Month: Aug 2105 vs. Jul 2015

01-15 02-15 03-15 04-15 05-15 06-15 07-15 08-15 -

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

4.40 3.90 4.00

4.50 4.60 4.70 5.00 4.60

6.50 6.40 5.80

5.00 4.70 4.30 4.40 4.30

Headline CPI Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

Suga

r and

swee

ts

Milk

, egg

s and

chee

se

Frui

t

Mea

t

Oth

er fo

od Fish

Proc

esse

d

Unpr

oces

sed

Brea

d an

d ce

real

s

Vege

tabl

es

Oils

and

fats

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

3.85.0

7.6

4.3

8.3

4.3 4.83.9

5.9

-2.4

5.7

0.2 0.8 0.7 1.80.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.2

-0.4

3.0

Aug 2015 vs Aug 2014 Aug 2015 vs Jul 2015

Perc

enta

ge ch

ange

(%)

5

Overall inflation and food inflation: May – August 2015

Source: Central Banks and Statistics Institutions

May June July August

CountryOverall inflation

(%)

Inflation on food

and non-alcoholic

beverages (%)

Overall inflation

(%)

Inflation on food

and non-alcoholic

beverages (%)

Overall inflation

(%)

Inflation on food

and non-alcoholic

beverages (%)

Overall inflation

(%)

Inflation on food

and non-alcoholic

beverages (%)

Botswana 3.0 1.3 3.1 1.0 3.1 1.0 3.0 1.1

Brazil 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.6 10.5 9.5 10.6

China 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.6 2.7 2.0 3.7

India 5.0 4.8 5.4 5.5 3.7 2.2 3.7 2.2

Namibia 3.0 4.5 3.0 4.1 3.3 5.3 3.4  

Russia 15.8 22.4 15.3 20.7 15.6 20.4 15.8 20.0

South Africa

4.6 4.7 4.7 4.3 5.0 4.4 4.6 4.3

Turkey 8.1 12.8 7.2 9.3 6.8 9.3 7.1 9.7

United Kingdom

0.1 -1.8 0.0 -2.2 0.1 -2.7 0.0 -2.4

United States

0.0 1.6 0.1 1.8 0.2 1.6 0.2 1.6

Zambia 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.8 7.3 7.8

6

Comparison between urban and rural prices: August 2015

Source: Stats SA, 2015

ProductRural Food Prices

August 2015Urban Food Prices

August 2015Price difference

R/unit

Full cream milk – long life 1ℓ 12.88 12.89 0.01

Loaf of brown bread 700g 10.33 10.68 0.35

Loaf of white bread 700g 11.63 11.94 0.31

Special maize 2.5 kg 15.61 15.06 -0.55

Super maize 2.5 kg 20.74 20.69 -0.05

Margarine spread 500g 20.12 22.85 2.73

Peanut butter 400g 23.10 23.18 0.08

Rice 2 kg 24.13 24.15 0.02

Sunflower oil 750 mℓ 17.84 18.49 0.65

Ceylon/black tea 62.5g 10.21 10.76 0.55

White sugar 2.5 kg 28.40 28.31 -0.09

Average 0.36

Comparison between urban and rural prices: August 2015

Source: Stats SA, 2015

7

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

185.80

188.76

192.02 192.40

194.99 194.40 195.79

199.00

180.47

184.18

186.67 187.03

189.67 189.64 191.44

194.99

Urban Rural

Inde

x (D

ec 2

012=

100)

Estimated impact of food inflation on consumers

Source: BFAP, 2015

8

Food group:

Overall inflation rate:Major contributors to inflation in this category:

Minor contributors to inflation in this category:

Non-contributors to inflation in this category:

Comments:July 2014 to July 2015

April 2014 to April 2015*

Animalprotein

+6.7 % +5.8 %

Fish (excl tuna) – tinned (+13.8 %)Chicken portions fresh (+8.8 %)Chicken portions frozen (+7.6 %)

Beef chuck (+3.2 %)

NoneAnimalprotein

Bread and cereals

+0.6 % -0.8 %White bread (+6.4 %)Brown bread (+6.0 %)

Rice (+1.3 %)Maize meal (-3.3 %)

Bread and cereals

Vegetables -2.9 % +2.4 % Cabbage (+4.2 %)Potatoes (+0.4 %)

Onions (-7.1 %)Tomatoes (-6.1 %)

Vegetables

Fruit +13.0 % +13.2 %Oranges (+34.3 %)Bananas (+8.5 %)Apples (+7.0 %)

None None Fruit

Dairy +5.5 % +11.6 %Full cream milk – long life 1ℓ (+5.5 %)

None NoneDairyEggs

Eggs +2.5 % +5.5 %Eggs 1.5 dozen (+2.5 %)

None None

Fats and oils

+6.4 % +2.4 %Brick margarine (+8.9 %)

Sunflower oil (+3.9 %)

None Fats and oils

Bean products

-0.8 % +1.7 % Baked beans (+5.5 %) NonePeanut butter (-2.9 %)

Bean products

Coffee and tea

+5.0 % +7.3 %Ceylon/black tea (+16.9 %)

Instant coffee (+3.4 %)

None Coffee and tea

Estimated impact of food inflation on consumers (cont.), July 2014 vs. July 2015

Source: BFAP, 2015

9

July 2014 July 2015R 0.00

R 1.00

R 2.00

R 3.00

R 4.00

R 5.00

R 6.00

White sugar (22g)

Tea (2.5g)

Full cream milk (56g)

Brown bread (150g)

Maize porridge cooked (532g)

Porti

on c

ost (

R)

When comparing the costs associated with the typical portion sizes of very poor consumers for the five most widely consumed food items in South Africa, based on July 2015 versus July 2014 prices the results above indicated inflation of about 6.5 % (from R4.93 to R5.25 for the selection of portions). Significant inflation on all components contributed to the inflation observed on this ‘food plate’ (maize meal (+5.4 %), bread (+6.0 %), milk (+5.5 %), tea (+16.9 %), sugar (+5.7 %)). Even though the entire food basket experienced inflation of 4.1 % when comparing July 2015 with July 2014, the typical basic daily food selection for poor consumers revealed higher inflation (6.5 % as mentioned above), suggesting a more severe impact on poorer consumers.

10

Policy Recommendations

11

Policy recommendations

• Administered/regulated prices makes a significant contribution to the over cost of producing agricultural commodities and food, i.e. increasing the cost of doing business.

• The significant increase in administered/regulated prices will affect among other things: Agriculture’s ability to produce enough and affordable food The sustainability of the sector since it directly and

indirectly influences investment, the profitability and competitiveness of the sector

• Hence, rethink the current policy environment within the ambit of the role of agriculture

12

Policy recommendations (cont)

• Accelerated, but coordinated implementation of the Food and Nutrition Security Plan for South Africa

• Bold steps need to be considered – in line with what Brazil has done – to link smallholder farmers to institutional markets – this has potential multipliers for growth of the rural economy and cutting food insecurity

• Implementation of priority programmes outlined in the APAP should be accelerated – this requires mobilisation of funds to finance support programmes such as SIP 11 that aim to provide the economic infrastructural backbone required in the rural areas

13

Concluding remarks

14

Concluding remarks (cont...1)

• Food price inflation in South Africa increased by 4.3 %, in Aug 2015. This increase is due to second round inflationary effects, largely driven by moderate increases in fuel prices and costs of utilities such as electricity.

• The moderate food inflation rates of the previous months are however expected to escalate in the third quarter of 2015 as a result of pressures related to the weakening exchange rate due to sluggish growth in China.

• Cost within the value chain could also contribute to escalating retail prices as a result of the significant exchange rate depreciation. Decreasing oil prices could serve as a mitigating factor to this.

15

Concluding remarks (cont...2)

• In terms of specific food products, maize prices in the next quarter are expected to increase due to the exchange rate issues referred to above, as well as adverse weather conditions in the US.

• If these weather conditions persist upward pressure on maize meal prices can be expected to continue until the end of 2015

16

Concluding remarks (cont...3)

• In the case of wheat, any movement in the import parity price of wheat is now mainly determined by the exchange rate as the world price is trading significantly below the reference price of $294/ton.

• Vegetable prices are expected to move sideways in this period due to increased supply associated with seasonal effects.

• Despite increased slaughtering, beef prices are supported by increased exports of high value cuts to regions such as the Middle East. Over the next three months it is anticipated that this will be exasperated as a result of higher input costs associated with maize.

17

Concluding remarks (cont...4)

• Key factors to look out for during the next three months are weather conditions of the main grain production areas in the world

• Weather conditions in the US could provide support for maize prices if it is dryer than expected which will cause an upward movement in maize meal prices towards the end of the outlook period.

18

Thank you!

Contact details:National Agricultural Marketing CouncilTel: 012 341 1115E-mail: ronald@namc.co.zaWebsite: www.namc.co.za