Community vulnerability and climate change

Jason Kreitler, USGS

Various projects ongoing

• Geography of climate change – mostly ecological– Vulnerability and how to

adapt?• Community vulnerability

to wildland fire – Socioecological– Less climate

change

Impacts of climate change on communities

• Important general questions:– Is climate changing?– How, where, and at what

rate?– What are the effects?– What are the threats?– How do those threats

affect people & communities?

– Changes in magintude and timing of temp & precip, vegetation distrubution and phenology

– Drought, changes in severity and length of fire season, flooding, sea level rise, snowmelt timing

– Direct exposure to threats, changes to agricultural production, changes in ecosystem services, cultural disruption, economic disruption, conflict

Global CO2 emissions – IPCC 4th assessment

Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS

A2

B1: stabilizing population, rapid technology conversion

growing population, high carbon energy sources

IPCC 2007, Fig. 10.4

Projections of future temperature – IPCC 4th assessment

A2

B1

Bay Area climate

summer maxtemperature

precipitation

water deficit

winter mintemperature

PRISM climate layers downscaled to 270 m by Al and Lorrie Flint, USS

Climatic Water Deficit:excess evaporative demand relative to available water

PET depends on temperature and insolationWater availability depends

on precipitation, soil storage and runoff

CWD

courtesy: Al and Lorrie Flint, USGSsee Stephenson 1998 J. Biogeog.

Diana Stalberg et al. 2010 PLoS ONE (PRBO) Will Cornwell et al. in prep. (UC Berkeley)

Several, independent approaches to vegetation modeling agree: future climates favor shrub and grassland at the expense of forest

‘Random forest’ model of CalVeg types800 m resolution, UCSC regional climate model

Predictive vegetation modeling of Bay Area vegetation270 m downscaled climate, GFDL mid-century future

forest remaining

forest woodland

forest shrubland

Relative probability of vegetation transition

(GFDL A2, mid-century vs. present)

The vulnerability of vegetation types is very patchy:high probabilities of change occur where vegetation patches are near the edge of their climate

envelope

W. Cornwell et al. in prep.

Native vegetation transitions vs. alien invasions

vegetation transitions depend on:1) mortality of existing mature plants2) propagule sources for new species

source: Larry Workman QIN, Panoramio.com

?

Agents of mortality: Disease

source: UC Davis; http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070815145316.htm

Sudden oak death

source: Center for Invasive Species ResearchUC Riverside

Agents of mortality: Drought and pests

piñon pine mortalitycredit: Craig Allen, USGS

Agents of mortality: Fire

Historical probability of fire1950-2003

(climate-driven model) 2010-2039 (A2) 2070-2099 (A2)

16 GCM ensemble (A2 scenario): change relative to historical period

Figures: courtesy Meg Krawchuck and Max Mortiz, UC BerkeleyHistorical: Parisien and Moritz 2009 Ecol. Monogr.

Futures: Moritz et al. in review

Cohesive Strategy• 3 Phases• Just finished

Phase 2• Next, how to

quantify for national tradeoff analysis

Fire adapted human community conceptual diagrams

Fire adapted human community conceptual diagrams