Vulnerability to Climate Change

Habiba GitayWorld Bank Institute

The World Bankwww.worldbank.org/climatechangewww.worldbank.org/wbi

IPCC – defines vulnerability as

• The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Climate change has many characteristics and affects countries in many ways

Impacts - already occurring – low income countries most affected

Drought Flood Storm Sea-level rise Impact on Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh PhilippinesAll low-lying Island States

Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Zimbabwe

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Mali

Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Malawi

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Pakistan

Middle income countries

Low income countries

5

0 %

1 0 %

2 0 %

3 0 %

4 0 %

5 0 %

1 9 6 0 s 1 9 7 0 s 1 9 8 0 s 1 9 9 0 s 2 0 0 0 s

D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s

Proportion of people affected by climate related Proportion of people affected by climate related disastersdisasters

6

0

50

100

150

200

60s 70s 80s 90s 2000s pro-rated

Mill

ion

s a

ffe

cte

d p

er

de

cad

e

Drought Flood

People affected by floods and droughts in Africa

Major development sectors affected/vulnerable

• Water – its availability• Agriculture – options to reduce adverse impacts• Urban - Direct – e.g. heat-waves, flooding

- Indirect – e.g. rural to urban migration

• Infrastructure – Damage and decreased lifespan• Coastal – Storm surge, sea-level rise, saltwater

intrusion• Natural systems – Damage, failure to regenerate

(e.g. after frequent fires)

Agriculture: Impacts Are Likely to Worsen Over Time – additional challenges and

vulneabilities

Percentage change in agricultural yields between now and 2050Source: WDR 2010

9

Health impacts by 2040

Increased mortality due to malnutrition, infectious and respiratory diseases, vector and water borne diseases, heat related diseases in many parts of the world

By 2030

Scarcity of natural resources and climate Change could lead to migration and conflict and

there are hotspots

WBG 2007

Innovation in Carbon Finance: Biocarbon Fund

Costa Rica: Coopeagri Forestry ProjectThe project reimburses farmers for environmental services of biodiversity protection as a result of reforestation.

Payments will be complemented with the income from the carbon sales.

At least 600 farmers in 38 rural communities are currently associated with Coopeagri, a cooperative of coffee, sugar cane farmers who have agreed to introduce forestry production activities in their farms.

The project is expected to sequester around 0.56Mt C02e by 2017.

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)

First operational program under the Strategic Climate Fund: $967million in grants and IDA-like resources

PurposeTo help highly vulnerable countries pilot and demonstrate ways to integrate climate risk and resilience into core development planning while complementing other ongoing activities.

Participating countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Tanzania, Yemen, Zambia, Regional Programs: Caribbean (Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines) and South Pacific (Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga)

Example: CambodiaTechnical support for mainstreaming climate resiliencePiloting vulnerability assessments and investments on an ecosystem basisStrengthening data collection on climate risksPromoting participation of the private sector and civil society

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Working together to reduce poverty and vulnerability

• Different countries affected differently now and in future

• Climate change is an added stress - pushes them over the edge

• Marginalised groups - often face multiple stresses – are most vulnerable

• Reducing poverty will have multiple benefits including decreasing vulnerability to climate change

• Your parliamentary functions – representative, legislative, oversight – and your leadership role in and out of parliament are critical

• MPs can share knowledge amongst themsleves and develop guidance to fast track the much needed policies and strategies

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Integrate climate change as part and parcel of sustainable development

• “Climate change policies cannot be the frosting on the cake of development; they must be baked into the recipe of growth and social development”

• Robert Zoelick, President, The World Bank