Computing Capability

• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete– Declared operational August 12,

2009– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec– Factor of 4 increase over the IBM

Power5 – 156 POWER6 32-way nodes– 4,992 processors– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space– 3.5 billion observations/day– 27.8 million model fields/day

• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD• Backup: Fairmont, WV

– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes– Web access to models as they run on

the CCS

“reliable, timely and accurate”

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2011

CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1980 1990 2000 2010

YEAR

An

om

aly

Co

rrel

atio

n

NH GFS

SH GFS

NH CDAS/R1

SH CDAS/R1

Record Scores

Record Improvement

Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

NCEP/GFS

Fo

reca

st d

ay

8 d

5

Forecaster (HPC) Skill

Annual Threat Scores: 1.00 Inch

7

8

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Uncertainty

Forecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Ocean ModelHYCOMWave Watch III

Global Forecast System

North American Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle for AviationDispersion Models for DHS

NCEP Model Perspective

Mar

itim

eM

arit

ime

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

Hurricane – GFDL, WRFGLOFS BaysChesapeakeTampaDelaware

9

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMNMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

9

Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFSGreat Lakes

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

(Future)

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

10

2011