Congressional Elections:Looking at Some Basics

Dennis W. Johnson

Congressional Campaigns

•In House races, far fewer resources than senate, gubernatorial, and certainly presidential campaigns

Congressional Campaigns

• In House races, far fewer resources than senate, gubernatorial, and certainly presidential campaigns

•House incumbents may have a $1 million to spend; challengers often far less

Congressional Campaigns

• In House races, far fewer resources than senate, gubernatorial, and certainly presidential campaigns

• House incumbents may have a $1 million to spend; challengers often far less

•House incumbents return to office about 90-95 percent of time.

Senate Races

•Average Senate campaign will spend about $5 million; but varies widely ($30 million in California).

Senate Races

• Average Senate campaign will spend about $5 million; but varies widely ($30 million in California).

• With those resources, Senate campaign can afford full range of communication resources. Unlike House candidate.

In a Presidential Cycle . . .

•Not same voters as in 2006 (or 2002 voters for a Senator running for re-election)

In a Presidential Cycle . . .

• Not same voters as in 2006

•Airwaves will be saturated

Ways Congressional Campaigns Communicate

•In major media markets, House candidates can’t afford TV

Ways Congressional Campaigns Communicate

• In major media markets, House candidates can’t afford TV

•For House: Direct mail; radio; telemarketing; newspaper; billboards; even show leather.

Old-school communications.

Ways Congressional Campaigns Communicate

• In major media markets, can’t afford TV

• Direct mail; radio; telemarketing; newspaper; billboards; even shoe leather. Old-school communications.

•Little help from free media

Campaigning Online

•A Congressional campaign – House or Senate -- would be foolish not to have online resources --

Campaigning Online

• A Congressional campaign – House or Senate -- would be foolish not to have online resources –

•And a campaign would be foolish to rely solely on online resources.

Campaigning Online

•In House races, don’t expect sophisticated online presence, like seen at presidential level.

Campaigning Online

• In House races, don’t expect sophisticated online presence, like seen at presidential level.

• In Senate race, campaigns should be able to mount sophisticated online presence – not presidential level, but certainly sufficient

Cardinal Principle of Campaigning

•The candidate is responsible for the conduct and execution of every aspect of the campaign.

Cardinal Principle of Campaigning

•The candidate is responsible for the conduct and execution of every aspect of the campaign.

•E-mails, contents of blogs, links to external sources, social networking sites, etc.

Nationalization of the Contest

•Anticipate national 527s, rogue blogging sites, YouTube postings, text-messaging.

Nationalization of the Contest

• Anticipate national 527s, rogue blogging sites, YouTube postings, text-messaging

•Your job: put all this in context for readers—who’s responsible for this attack, what is this innocuous-sounding organization, who are these people?

What You Should Do

•Hold online campaigning to the same critical standard as pre-online campaigning.

What You Should Do

• Hold online campaigning to the same critical standard as pre-online campaigning.

•Sign up for every possible e-mail and RSS feed.

What You Should Do

• Hold online campaigning to the same critical standard as pre-online campaigning.

• Sign up for every possible e-mail and RSS feed.

•Understand that the competing candidates are but two voices in the cacophony of this campaign.

What You Should Do

•Finally – unless you tell the story, congressional elections will be lost to your readership, drowned out in the noise of presidential campaigning.