Presidential and Congressional Elections

The Nomination Process US vs. Europe- how

are they different?

The Nomination Process US vs. Europe- how are

they different?

Based on individual in US, based on organization in Europe

In the past, American parties made decisions but now almost all decision making power has devolved to the people

The Nomination Process- the Presidency The first step- getting

mentioned as being “presidential”

Do something big

Go to Iowa- why??

Generally, better to be a governor than in Congress

The Nomination Process- the Presidency Raise money, build a

staff and get volunteers

Choose your running style Insider vs. outsider Positive vs. negative Develop a theme (ex.

Change) Timing Find voters who might

change their votes

The Nomination Process- the Presidency Must be nominated by

your party to get your name on the ballot

Two main motivations in nominating a candidate: Appeal to a wide group

of voters Make the “true

believers” happy

The Nomination Process- the Presidency In the past this was avoided

because the parties chose- could pick someone electable

Delegates that chose a candidate were influential party members

Today, delegates are chosen mainly through primary elections

The Nomination Process- the Presidency Who votes in primaries

and why does this matter?

The Nomination Process- the Presidency Who votes in primaries

and why does this matter?

Usually, primary voters are adherents to the core beliefs of the party

They choose delegates who care about the issues

The Nomination Process- the Presidency The Democrats retain some

power for party members- superdelegates

Presidential candidates chosen through primaries and caucuses

Parties can shoot themselves in the foot with this process EG. Dem views on taxes/

Barry Goldwater in 1964

The General Election- the Presidency Have to face a new

audience now- the entire electorate

Poses a problem to candidates who tried to appeal to the true believers

The General Election- the Presidency How you run is based

on your position: Incumbents have to run

on their records Challengers run on

what they will do

The General Election- the Presidency Take positions on

position issues and valence issues Position- issue on

which the public is divided

Valence issues- issue on which the public is united- good economy/ less crime

The General Election- the Presidency Get on TV- how??

Paid advertising Make the news- free!! Go on talk shows Make sure you look like a

regular guy

In a general election, it is thought that paid advertising by candidates has little impact

The General Election- the Presidency In contrast, advertising

by outside groups can plant seeds of doubt about a candidate

Televised debates are a way to show a candidates mastery of the issues

Congressional Elections No term limits so there is

almost always an incumbent running

2010 and 2012 are different- why?

Generally, incumbents have a huge advantage

If possible, try to find an open seat- even if you have to move

Congressional Reelection Rates

In 2010, 86.9% of incumbents running won reelection

Congressional Reelection Rates

In 2010, 84% of incumbents running won reelection

Congressional Elections House members run every

two years, Senators every six

The Constitution says little about how they will be elected- nothing about districts

Initially, many states elected reps “at large”

Others had multi-member districts

Congressional Elections Now, all have single

member districts

Two problems with districts Malapportionment Gerrymandering

Congressional Elections Four problems in

determining who serves in the House Total size of house Allocating seats to the

states Size of districts Shape of districts

Congress determines the first two, states the second two

Congressional Elections Four problems in

determining who serves in the House Total size of house Allocating seats to the

states Size of districts Shape of districts

Congress determines the first two, states the second two

Congressional Elections

Congressional Elections The states did not act on

malapportionment and gerrymandering until ordered to do so by the court

Wesberry v. Sanders (1964)- one person, one vote

Still leaves a lot of room for state legislatures to maneuver

Congressional Elections- Primaries Largely beyond party

control

Gather signatures to get name on ballot and then beat opponents

Rare for incumbents to lose a primary but 2008/ 2010 were exceptions (kind of)

Congressional Elections- Primaries There is often a

sophomore surge- an increase in votes when running for a second term

This is largely because being in Congress offers many boosts to one’s campaign

Congressional Elections- Primaries Examples:

Franking privilege- free mail

Get covered in papers and on TV

Bring services, jobs, funding to district

Sell selves as the hometowner in congress, there to clean things up

Congressional Elections- Primaries The weakness of the

parties and the local focus of the congressmen affects policy Office is focused on

needs of constituents

“All politics is local”

Trustee vs. delegate