The Mixed System: How did primaries change the

presidential nomination process?

Announcements

• Tuesday, Sept. 20– 12:30-2pm– Panel Discussion on President Bush’s

nomination of John Roberts to be Chief Justice of the Supreme Court

– IPJ Peace and Justice Theatre

Important Dates (Reminder)

• September 21 (Next Wednesday!)– Choose topic for research paper– Submit chosen topic with a preliminary list of

books/sources

• November 11– Last day I will accept drafts

• November 18: Paper Due• Last days of class: Debates/Presentations

Research papers

• Choose an incident in which a president used a specific power.

• Research, using primary sources: – how the president justified his use of that power– how others in and out of government evaluated that

justification– whether and how other actors attempted to restrain him.

• Based on that research, make your own argument:– whether and on what basis the president’s use of the power

was justified; – whether appropriate steps were taken to check his use of

that power;– whether the act in question falls within your view of the

scope of legitimate presidential authority.

Topics

• Detention of U.S. citizens as “enemy combatants”• Executive privilege over meetings with aides• Suspension of the writ of habeas corpus • Roosevelt’s attempt to “pack the court”• Internment of Japanese Americans during WWII• Refusal to enforce the Supreme Court ruling • A topic of your own choosing

An “A” Paper

• Makes a clear, original argument• Answers all the questions in the assignment• Uses several primary sources

– Presidential speeches/memoirs– Memoirs of key presidential aides– The Congressional Record– Contemporary news accounts– Court cases

• Is submitted on time (you will be docked a full letter grade for every day the paper is late!)

Methods of Nominating Presidential Candidates

“King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912

The Convention System

• National party nominating convention selects presidential candidate

• Strong parties

• Patronage

• High participation

• Parties try to control presidents

Three changes at the turn of the 20th century

• Civil Service

Rise In Civil Service Employment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1816 1831 1851 1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991

Percentage of employees under merit

Number of civil servants under merit system, 1816-1921

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1816 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921

Number of employees Number of civil servants

Three changes at the turn of the 20th century

• Civil Service

• Communications technology

Changes in technology

• Railroads (1850s +)

• Daily newspapers (1880s +)

• Radio and TV (1940s +)

Number of daily and weekly newspapers

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Number of daily newspapers Number of weeklies

Number of Households with radio and TV (in millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Households with radio Households with TV

Three changes at the turn of the 20th century

• Civil Service

• Communications technology

• Primary elections

Number of States Holding Primary Elections

02

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968

Democrats Republicans

First Three Methods of Nominating Presidential Candidates

“King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912

Mixed System: 1912-1968

Mixed System

• Real decision about nomination made at national convention

• Candidates can choose to run in primaries

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968

Democrats Republicans

Number of Convention Ballots to Select the Presidential Nominee

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968

Democrats Republicans

1952 Democratic Convention: Delegates pledged by primaries

• Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): 257.5 delegates• Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 delegates• Uncommitted: 611.5 delegates

• Others: – Sen. Richard Russell (GA): 161.5 delegates– Averell Harriman: 112.5 delegates– Sen. Bob Kerr (OK): 45.5 delegates

Compare the three systems we have discussed so far. How do each serve as a resource or constraint for presidents? Which do you think is most democratic? Which has the best chance of producing good presidents?

1968 Democratic Convention

Presidential Party Nomination Systems

“King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912

Mixed System: 1912-1968

Primary System: 1972-???

Important changes to party rules as a result of McGovern-Fraser Commission

• Anti-discrimination provisions• Explicit party rules and open party meetings• Bans the UNIT RULE

– Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a winner-take-all fashion

• Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection process

• Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection process

• Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholders

Number of states holding primary elections

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

4045

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000

Democrats Republicans

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

010203040

5060708090

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000

Democrats Republicans

Some delegates still chosen by other means

• Caucus:– A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come

and express their opinions

• State convention:– Local party groups select delegates to state

party convention. State convention delegates select delegates to national nominating convention.

Consequences of Party Reform

• Increase in number of primaries

• Increase in importance of media– (And hence the importance of early primaries!)

Early primaries get more media coverage (1980)

State Primary Date Number of delegates

Percentage of CBS’

coverage

Iowa Jan 21 87 14%

NH Jan 26 41 14%

TX May 3 232 2%

CA June 3 474 6%

Consequences of Party Reform

• Increase in number of primaries

• Increase in importance of media

• Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!)

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population 2,929,324

(30th)

1,235,786

(41st)

281,421,906

% White 93.9% 96% 75.1%

Median income

$39,469 $49,467 $41,994

% Farm employmt

4.4% .9% 1.9%

Consequences of Party Reform

• Increase in number of primaries

• Increase in importance of media

• Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!)

• Decreases importance of national party conventions

Consequences of Party Reform

• Increase in number of primaries

• Increase in importance of media

• Increase in importance of early primaries

• Decreases importance of national party conventions

• Decreases importance of state party leaders

Changes After 1968

• McGovern-Fraser reforms

• FECA

Federal Election Campaign Act

• Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections– All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if

they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year

• Bans large donations by individuals– Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary candidate

Consequences of Party Reform & FECA

• Increase in number of primaries• Increase in importance of media• Increase in importance of early primaries• Decreases importance of national party

conventions• Decreases importance of state party leaders• Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise

big money in small contributions!)

A Couple of Problems?

• Ideological primary voters?

• Candidates mobilize factions?

Hunt Commission, 1982

• Superdelegates

• Frontloading

Date 2004 PRIMARIES/caucuses 1996

Jan wk2 DC

Jan wk3 IA

Jan wk4 NH AK, HI

Feb wk1 AZ, DE, MO, SC, NM LA

Feb wk2 MI, WA, ME VA, TN, DC IA

Feb wk3 MI, ID NH

Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD

Mar wk1 CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

AP Delegate totals, March 17, 2004

(2,162 needed to win nomination)     Kerry: 2333

 Edwards: 530  Dean: 156

    Clark: 73 Sharpton: 26

 Kucinich: 22  Lieberman: 2  Gephardt: 2

The INVISIBLE PRIMARY:The race for money and endorsements in the

year before the general election

Candidate's share of party loyal funds raised per month (GOP 2000)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99 Jun-99 Jul-99 Aug-99 Sep-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Dec-99

Month

Per

cen

tag

e o

f P

arty

Lo

yal F

un

ds

DOLE, ELIZABETH BUSH, GEORGE W SMITH, ROBERT C BAUER, GARY L HATCH, ORRIN GRANT KEYES, ALAN L ALEXANDER, ANDREW LAMAR KASICH, JOHN R FORBES, STEVE QUAYLE, DAN MCCAIN, JOHN S

Presidential Presidential Party Nomination SystemsParty Nomination Systems

“King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912

Mixed System: 1912-1968

Primary System: 1972-1982?(Modified primary system? 1982-????)

2004 Democratic Nomination

What happened to Howard Dean?

How does the current system compare to historical nominations systems we’ve considered? What is the relationship between a presidential candidate and his or her party today?

Where are we now?

• Invisible primary will start December ’06

• Has it started already?

Possible contenders?

• John Edwards• Howard Dean• Hillary Clinton• Rod Blagojevich• Janet Napolitano• Bill Richardson• Tom Vilsack• Evan Bayh

• Bill Frist• Rudy Giuliani• John McCain• George Allen• Mitt Romney• Goerge Pataki• Chuck Hagel

In small groups, discuss:

1. What types of candidates are advantaged by the current nomination system? Are they the “right” kind of candidates?

2. What are the chances that your candidate will win his or her party’s nomination?

3. If you were hired to advise this particular candidate how to get his or her party’s nomination, what would you tell him or her to do?