connecticut dataaug 13, 2013 · connecticut data: implications for higher education braden j....

Connecticut Data: Implications for Higher Education Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education (August 13, 2013)

Overview • Population change

• Population Change, Enrollment,

Completions and Educational Attainment

• Important Indicators • College Readiness • Student Success • Affordability • Innovation and Economic Development • Equity

2

Population Change – United States

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+

Percent of Population

US Population By Age and Sex, 1900

Men Women

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

3


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


4


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


5


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


6


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


7


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


8


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


9


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


10


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


11


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


12

Population Change – Connecticut

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+


Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 1990

Men Women


13


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


14


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


15


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


16


8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+



Men Women


17

United States Population Change

U.S. Population Change in U.S. Population

(from 2010)

20-24 70+ 20-24 70+

2010 21,779,480 27,968,034 -- --

2020 21,799,193 36,943,962 19,713 8,975,928

2030 24,191,409 51,711,144 2,411,929 23,743,110

2040 26,408,192 62,249,538 4,628,712 34,281,504

2050 28,171,436 67,004,446 6,391,956 39,036,412


18

Connecticut Population Change

Connecticut Population Change in CT Population

(from 2010)

20-24 70+ 20-24 70+

2010 233,040 369,177 -- --

2020 215,023 457,048 -18,017 87,871

2030 198,927 585,871 -34,113 216,694


19

Connecticut Population Age 0 and Age 85+ from 1990 to 2011

39,325 49,637

37,318

36,251

87,199

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,00019

8019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

10

Age 0Age 85 +

20 Source: U.S. Census, Intercensal estimates, 1980-89, 1990-1999, 2000-2010 , 2011

Implications of Population Change • Shift in budget priorities from education to

health care

• Shift in mission of higher education to provide continuing education throughout the lifespan

21

CT Public High School Graduates 1970-2023

22

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount

23

00

50000

100000

150000

20000019

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

24

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads

CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates

24

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

0

50000

100000

150000

20000019

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

24

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent


CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates (+3 Years)

25

-5000

5000

15000

25000

35000

45000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,00019

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

24

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent


CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment (Full-time & Part-time)

26

0

50000

100000

150000

20000019

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

24

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

Projected FT & PT Undergraduate Enrollment

Actual Part-Time Undergraduate Enrollment

Actual Full-Time Undergraduate Enrollment

CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment

27

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

15000019

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

24

Und

ergr

adua

te C

ompl

etio

ns

Und

ergr

ad F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t

Actual Undergraduate FTE Enrollment

Projected Undergraduate FTE Enrollment

Undergraduate Completions*

CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions

28

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

15000019

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

24

Und

ergr

adua

te C

ompl

etio

ns

Und

ergr

ad F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t

Actual Undergraduate Enrollment

Projected Undergraduate Enrollment


* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion

CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions (-2 years)

29

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

50000

100000

15000019

7019

7319

7619

7919

8219

8519

8819

9119

9419

9720

0020

0320

0620

0920

1220

1520

1820

2120

24

Und

ergr

adua

te C

ompl

etio

ns

Und

ergr

ad F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t

Actual Undergraduate Enrollment

Projected Undergraduate Enrollment


* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion

CT Educational Attainment, Ages 25-44 Pop. 25 to 44 years Educational Attainment N Pct Less than 9th grade 26,524 3.0 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 53,218 5.9 High school graduate, GED, or alternative 217,326 24.3 Some college, no degree 171,999 19.2 Associate's degree 68,097 7.6 Bachelor's degree 217,284 24.3 Graduate or professional degree 140,685 15.7

Total 895,133 100.0

Attained Associate's Degree or Higher 426,066 47.6 At least HS diploma, no college degree 389,325 43.5

30 Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2011, 1-Year Est.

CT High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity

31

Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)

CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity

32


Pct A

ssoc

iate

’s or

Hig

her

CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity

33


Pct A

ssoc

iate

’s or

Hig

her

Undergraduate Completions by Race/Ethnicity

05000

100001500020000250003000035000

White Hispanic or Latino

Black or African American Asian/Pacific Islander

American Indian More Than One Race

Non-Resident Alien Race/Ethnicity Unknown34

*** Race/ethnicity collection and reporting changed in 2010. Subsequent data may not be comparable; interpret with caution

Graduate Student Enrollment

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

IndependentInstitutionsUniversity ofConnecticutState Universities

35

Graduate Student Enrollment

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Part-TimeFull-Time

36

Graduate Degree Completions

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

2004

-05

2006

-07

2008

-09

2010

-11

Master's Degrees

Doctoral/FirstProfessional DegreesGraduate Certificates

37

College Readiness CT Community Colleges

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Tenn

esse

eCo

nnec

ticut

*W

est V

irgin

iaHa

wai

iLo

uisia

naM

assa

chus

etts

Mar

ylan

dO

klah

oma

Arizo

naO

hio

Idah

oN

ew M

exic

oFl

orid

aM

issou

riO

rego

nTe

xas

Wyo

min

gIll

inoi

sIn

dian

aW

ashi

ngto

nVi

rgin

iaM

ississ

ippi

Nev

ada

Geor

gia

Colo

rado

Kent

ucky

Nor

th C

arol

ina

Uta

h

Percent of Students Enrolling in Remedial Courses in Public 2-year Institutions

38 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from entering students in 2006; CT data are from entering students in 2008 reported to CCA in 2013..

Student Success -Time to Degree CT Public Institutions Award/Entry Status Average Years State Rank

Certificate-Seeking

Full-Time 3.4 14 out of 26

Part-Time 5.0 18 out of 26

Associate’s-Seeking

Full-Time 4.3 19 out of 28

Part-Time 5.6 18 out of 28

Bachelor’s-Seeking

Full-Time 4.4* 7 out of 29*

Part-Time 5.2* 8 out of 29*

39 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.

*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.

Student Success - Credits to Degree CT Public Institutions Award/Entry Status Average Credits State Rank

Certificate-Seeking

Full-Time 77 21 out of 25

Part-Time 70 21 out of 25

Associate’s-Seeking

Full-Time 84 16 out of 28

Part-Time 85 19 out of 28

Bachelor’s-Seeking

Full-Time 125* 2 out of 29*

Part-Time 115* 2 out of 28*

40 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.

*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.

Affordability – Student Charges

41

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Tuiti

on &

Req

uire

d Fe

es as

Pct

of M

HI

Medi

an H

ouse

hold

Inco

me

CT Median Household Income and Tuition + Required Fees for Community Colleges and CT State Universities

Connecticut Median Household Income Connecticut Community CollegesConnecticut State Universities University of Connecticut

State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, United States, Constant Dollars

$8,

497

$

8,47

3

$8,

341

$

8,24

4

$8,

028

$

7,58

0

$7,

322

$

7,41

9

$7,

660

$

7,74

1

$8,

029

$

8,29

0

$8,

504

$

8,42

7

$8,

670

$

8,35

2

$7,

713

$

7,19

5

$7,

152

$

7,48

6

$7,

667

$

7,78

1

$7,

273

$

6,72

9

$6,

483

$

5,90

6

$2,

588

$2,

652

$2,

703

$2,

748

$2,

841

$3,

069

$3,

265

$3,

380

$3,

469

$3,

587

$3,

637

$3,

660

$3,

662

$3,

486

$3,

597

$3,

609

$3,

681

$3,

871

$4,

031

$4,

292

$4,

359

$4,

286

$4,

364

$4,

568

$4,

793

$5,

189

$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000

$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Reve

nue

per F

TE

Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE42

Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Index (HECA)

State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, Connecticut, Constant Dollars

$11

,375

$

12,1

63

$12

,693

$

12,8

62

$12

,748

$

11,9

38

$9,

493

$

10,9

66

$10

,935

$

11,6

12

$11

,737

$

12,4

11

$12

,688

$

13,1

90

$12

,664

$

12,4

62

$11

,715

$

10,8

97

$10

,817

$

10,8

81

$11

,131

$

11,5

44

$10

,867

$

10,8

74

$10

,204

$

9,01

6

$2,

896

$3,

144

$3,

190

$3,

555

$3,

865

$4,

426

$4,

992

$5,

155

$5,

183

$5,

608

$5,

794

$5,

786

$5,

802

$5,

642

$5,

950

$5,

911

$6,

210

$6,

862

$7,

162

$7,

413

$7,

344

$7,

502

$7,

642

$7,

569

$8,

025

$8,

168

$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000

$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Reve

nue

per F

TE

Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE43

Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA)

Distance Learning

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

U.S

.

CT

Perc

ent i

n An

y D

ista

nce

Ed

PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Undergraduates Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)

44

Distance Learning

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

U.S

.

CT

Perc

ent i

n An

y D

ista

nce

Ed

PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Graduate Students Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)

45

Closing Observations • Fewer 18-24 year olds

• Increased competition • Shift to serving older students • Downward pressure on revenues

• Historical patterns of success will not meet attainment goals (Obama Administration, Lumina)

• Contextual Opportunities • College Readiness • Student Success • Affordability / sustainable financing model • Innovative models for learning & teaching • Equity in outcomes 46

connecticut dataaug 13, 2013 · connecticut data: implications for higher education braden j....

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