connecticut data: implications for higher education braden j. hosch, ph.d. connecticut board of...

Connecticut Data:Implications for Higher Education

Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education(August 13, 2013)

Overview

• Population change

• Population Change, Enrollment, Completions and Educational Attainment

• Important Indicators• College Readiness• Student Success• Affordability• Innovation and Economic Development• Equity

2

Population Change – United States

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

Percent of Population

US Population By Age and Sex, 1900

Men Women

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

3


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


4


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


5


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


6


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


7


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


8


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


9


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


10


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


11


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


12

Population Change – Connecticut

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8


Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 1990

Men Women


13


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


14


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


15


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


16


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8



Men Women


17

United States Population Change

U.S. PopulationChange in U.S. Population

(from 2010)

20-24 70+ 20-24 70+

2010 21,779,480 27,968,034 -- --

2020 21,799,193 36,943,962 19,713 8,975,928

2030 24,191,409 51,711,144 2,411,929 23,743,110

2040 26,408,192 62,249,538 4,628,712 34,281,504

2050 28,171,436 67,004,446 6,391,956 39,036,412


18

Connecticut Population Change

Connecticut PopulationChange in CT Population

(from 2010)

20-24 70+ 20-24 70+

2010 233,040 369,177 -- --

2020 215,023 457,048 -18,017 87,871

2030 198,927 585,871 -34,113 216,694


19

Connecticut PopulationAge 0 and Age 85+ from 1990 to 2011

19801983

19861989

19921995

19982001

20042007

20100

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000

39,325

49,637

37,318

36,251

87,199

Age 0Age 85 +

20Source: U.S. Census, Intercensal estimates, 1980-89, 1990-1999, 2000-2010 , 2011

Implications of Population Change• Shift in budget priorities from education to

health care

• Shift in mission of higher education to provide continuing education throughout the lifespan

21

CT Public High School Graduates1970-2023

22

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

20000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount

23

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

20000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates

24

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

20000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000200000

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000


Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates (+3 Years)

25

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

20,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

-5000

5000

15000

25000

35000

45000


Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

Publ

ic H

S G

radu

ates

CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment (Full-time & Part-time)

26

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

50000

100000

150000

200000

Actual Full-Time Undergraduate Enrollment

Actual Part-Time Undergraduate Enrollment

Projected FT & PT Undergraduate Enrollment

Post

seco

ndar

y H

eadc

ount

Enr

ollm

ent

CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment

27

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

50000

100000

150000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Actual Undergraduate FTE Enrollment

Projected Undergraduate FTE Enrollment

Undergraduate Completions*

Und

ergr

ad F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t

Und

ergr

adua

te C

ompl

etion

s

CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions

28

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

50000

100000

150000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Actual Undergraduate Enrollment

Projected Undergraduate Enrollment


Und

ergr

ad F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t

Und

ergr

adua

te C

ompl

etion

s

* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion

CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions (-2 years)

29

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20102014

20182022

20260

50000

100000

150000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Actual Undergraduate Enrollment

Projected Undergraduate Enrollment


Und

ergr

ad F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t

Und

ergr

adua

te C

ompl

etion

s

* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion

CT Educational Attainment, Ages 25-44 Pop. 25 to 44 yearsEducational Attainment N Pct Less than 9th grade 26,524 3.0 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 53,218 5.9 High school graduate, GED, or alternative 217,326 24.3 Some college, no degree 171,999 19.2 Associate's degree 68,097 7.6 Bachelor's degree 217,284 24.3 Graduate or professional degree 140,685 15.7

Total 895,133 100.0

Attained Associate's Degree or Higher 426,066 47.6At least HS diploma, no college degree 389,325 43.5

30Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2011, 1-Year Est.

CT High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity

31

Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)

CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity

32


Pct A

ssoc

iate

’s or

Hig

her

CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity

33


Pct A

ssoc

iate

’s or

Hig

her

Undergraduate Completions by Race/Ethnicity

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07

2008-09***

2011-120

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

White Hispanic or Latino Black or African AmericanAsian/Pacific Islander American Indian More Than One RaceNon-Resident Alien Race/Ethnicity Unknown

34

*** Race/ethnicity collection and reporting changed in 2010. Subsequent data may not be comparable; interpret with caution

Graduate Student Enrollment

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20120

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Independent Institu-tionsUniversity of Con-necticutState Universities

35

Graduate Student Enrollment

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20120

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Part-TimeFull-Time

36

Graduate Degree Completions

1982-83

1985-86

1988-89

1991-92

1994-95

1997-98

2000-01

2003-04

2006-07

2009-100

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Master's DegreesDoctoral/First Pro-fessional DegreesGraduate Certificates

37

College ReadinessCT Community Colleges

Tennessee

Connecticu

t*

West

Virginia

Hawaii

Louisi

ana

Massa

chuse

tts

Maryl

and

Oklahoma

Arizona

OhioIdaho

New Mexic

o

Florid

a

Miss

ouri

Oregon

Texas

Wyo

mingIlli

nois

Indiana

Wash

ington

Virginia

Miss

issippi

Nevada

Georgia

Colorado

Kentucky

North Caro

lina

Utah0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percent of Students Enrolling in Remedial Courses in Public 2-year Institutions

38Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from entering students in 2006; CT data are from entering students in 2008 reported to CCA in 2013..

Student Success -Time to DegreeCT Public InstitutionsAward/Entry Status Average Years State Rank

Certificate-Seeking

Full-Time 3.4 14 out of 26

Part-Time 5.0 18 out of 26

Associate’s-Seeking

Full-Time 4.3 19 out of 28

Part-Time 5.6 18 out of 28

Bachelor’s-Seeking

Full-Time 4.4* 7 out of 29*

Part-Time 5.2* 8 out of 29*

39Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.

*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.

Student Success - Credits to DegreeCT Public InstitutionsAward/Entry Status Average Credits State Rank

Certificate-Seeking

Full-Time 77 21 out of 25

Part-Time 70 21 out of 25

Associate’s-Seeking

Full-Time 84 16 out of 28

Part-Time 85 19 out of 28

Bachelor’s-Seeking

Full-Time 125* 2 out of 29*

Part-Time 115* 2 out of 28*

40Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.

*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.

Affordability – Student Charges

41

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%

CT Median Household Income and Tuition + Required Fees for Community Colleges and CT State Universities

Connecticut Median Household Income Connecticut Community CollegesConnecticut State Universities University of Connecticut

Med

ian

Hous

ehol

d In

com

e

Tuiti

on &

Req

uire

d Fe

es a

s Pc

t of M

HI

State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, United States, Constant Dollars

19871989

19911993

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

2011 $-

$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000

$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000

$8,

497

$8,

473

$8,

341

$8,

244

$8,

028

$7,

580

$7,

322

$7,

419

$7,

660

$7,

741

$8,

029

$8,

290

$8,

504

$8,

427

$8,

670

$8,

352

$7,

713

$7,

195

$7,

152

$7,

486

$7,

667

$7,

781

$7,

273

$6,

729

$6,

483

$5,

906

$2,

588

$2,

652

$2,

703

$2,

748

$2,

841

$3,

069

$3,

265

$3,

380

$3,

469

$3,

587

$3,

637

$3,

660

$3,

662

$3,

486

$3,

597

$3,

609

$3,

681

$3,

871

$4,

031

$4,

292

$4,

359

$4,

286

$4,

364

$4,

568

$4,

793

$5,

189

Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE

Reve

nue

per F

TE

42Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Index (HECA)

State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, Connecticut, Constant Dollars

19871989

19911993

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

2011 $-

$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000

$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000

$11

,375

$

12,1

63

$12

,693

$

12,8

62

$12

,748

$

11,9

38

$9,

493

$10

,966

$

10,9

35

$11

,612

$

11,7

37

$12

,411

$

12,6

88

$13

,190

$

12,6

64

$12

,462

$

11,7

15

$10

,897

$

10,8

17

$10

,881

$

11,1

31

$11

,544

$

10,8

67

$10

,874

$

10,2

04

$9,

016

$2,

896

$3,

144

$3,

190

$3,

555

$3,

865

$4,

426

$4,

992

$5,

155

$5,

183

$5,

608

$5,

794

$5,

786

$5,

802

$5,

642

$5,

950

$5,

911

$6,

210

$6,

862

$7,

162

$7,

413

$7,

344

$7,

502

$7,

642

$7,

569

$8,

025

$8,

168

Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE

Reve

nue

per F

TE

43Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA)

Distance Learning

U.S

.

CT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Undergraduates Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)

Perc

ent i

n A

ny D

ista

nce

Ed

44

Distance Learning

U.S

.

CT

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Graduate Students Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)

Perc

ent i

n A

ny D

ista

nce

Ed

45

Closing Observations

• Fewer 18-24 year olds • Increased competition• Shift to serving older students• Downward pressure on revenues

• Historical patterns of success will not meet attainment goals (Obama Administration, Lumina)• Contextual Opportunities• College Readiness• Student Success• Affordability / sustainable financing model• Innovative models for learning & teaching• Equity in outcomes

46

connecticut data: implications for higher education braden j. hosch, ph.d. connecticut board of...

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