demographic change in the u.s. and connecticut related to the college-bound population presented to...

Demographic Change in the U.S. and Connecticut Related to the College-Bound Population

Presented to the CCSU Enrollment Management Team

ByBraden J. Hosch, Ph.D.

Director of Institutional Research & Assessment

April 10, 2008

Overview

Population Change in the US, New England & Connecticut with Resulting Pressures on State Funding\

Change in CT Public HS Graduates Change in CCSU Fall headcount enrollment

2001-2007 Qualitative indicators (SAT – first-time

undergraduates) Implications

Population Change – United States

US Population By Age and Sex, 1900

Male Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html



Male Female





Male Female


AnimatedLink


http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/Animation/pyramid.html

http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/Animation/pyramid.html

Population Change - Connecticut

00 to 04

05 to 09

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 Over

150000

100000

50000

0 50000

100000

150000

FemaleMale

Population Count

Ag

e

CT Population By Age and Sex, 2000



00 to 04

05 to 09

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 Over

150000

100000

50000

0 50000

100000

150000

FemaleMale

Population Count

Ag

e

Implications of Population Change

Shift in budget priorities from education to health care

Change in US Pop(from 2007)

Change in CT Pop(from 2005)

Δ 20-24 Δ 70+ Δ 20-24 Δ 70+

2010 715,139 1,006,323 27,742 -695

2020 -210,467 9,948,301 11,053 60,131

2030 2,174,964 24,407,889 -17,769 77,847

2040 3,936,260 34,746,966 NA NA

2050 5,335,960 39,196,494 NA NA

Shift in mission of higher education to provide continuing education throughout the lifespan

*Source: U.S. Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html


Projected Change in Numbers of High-School Graduates by State, 2004-5 to 2021-22

SOURCE: Knocking at the College Door (2008, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education)Reproduced in The Chronicle of Higher Education 54.29.

Projections of Graduates of Public High Schools, by Racial and Ethnic Group

SOURCE: Knocking at the College Door (2008, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education)Reproduced in The Chronicle of Higher Education 54.29.

Actual & Projected CT Public HS Graduates by Race/Ethnicity

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

American Indian/ Alaskan Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-HispanicHispanic White Non-Hispanic

12%

SOURCE: Knocking at the College Door (2008, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education)

81%

7%10%2.7%

75%

11%

11%3.3%

13%

70%

5%9%

62%

19%

11%

CT Public HS Grads & CCSU* Entering Class by Race/Ethnicity

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

CT Pub HS Asian/Pacific Islander CT Pub HS Black, non-Hispanic

CT Pub HS Hispanic CT Pub HS White Non-Hispanic

CCSU Entering FY Asian/Pacific Islander CCSU Entering FY Black, non-Hispanic

CCSU Entering FY Hispanic CCSU Entering FY White Non-Hispanic

ProjectedActual*

SOURCE: Knocking at the College Door (2008, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education)* CCSU data exclude categories of Non-Resident Alien and Race/Ethnicity Unknown

CCSU Fall Headcount Enrollment by Level and Status

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Graduate Non-Matriculated

Graduate Part-Time

Graduate Full-Time

Undergraduate Non-Matricu-lated

Undergraduate Part-Time

Undergraduate Full-Time

6,636

7,629

1,532

6,636

7,629

1,532

543520497

1,578 1,528

742 334

1,902

1,013

CCSU Fall Headcount Enrollment of Non-Matriculated Students

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1013 991

761588 535 530 543

742653

449

441449

369 334

Graduate Non-Matricu-latedUndergraduate Non-Ma-triculated

Change in Fall Headcount Enrollment by Level and Status Significant declines were observed between 2001 and 2007 in non-matriculated

students and part-time undergraduates Part-time grad students peaked at 1777 in 2003 and have since declined 14% to

slightly below 2001 levels*

2001 2007Change

(N) Change

(Pct)

Graduate, Non-Matriculated 742 334 -408 -55%

Graduate, Part-Time* (matriculated) 1578 1548 -30 -2%

Graduate, Full-Time (matriculated) 497 520 23 5%

Undergraduate, Non-Matriculated 1013 543 -470 -46%

Undergraduate, Part-Time (matriculated) 1902 1532 -370 -19%

Undergraduate, Full-Time (matriculated) 6636 7629 993 15%

Headcount Enrollment by Age:Full-Time Undergraduates (Matriculated)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Other55 and Over50 to 5445 to 4940 to 4435 to 3930 to 3425 to 2920 to 2415 to 19

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Headcount (N) Headcount (Pct)

Headcount Enrollment by Age:Part-Time Undergraduates (Matriculated)


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Headcount Enrollment by Age:Full-Time Grad Students (Matriculated)


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Headcount Enrollment by Age:Part-Time Grad Students (Matriculated)


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Where CT SAT Takers Sent Scores

N N N N N N N2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

UConnCentral CSUSouthern CSUEastern CSUQuinnipiacWestern CSU

SOURCE: College Bound Seniors (2001-2007, Educational Testing Service)

Where CT SAT Takers Sent Scores

Pct Pct Pct Pct Pct Pct Pct2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

UConnCentral CSUSouthern CSUEastern CSUQuinnipiacWestern CSU

SOURCE: College Bound Seniors (2001-2007, Educational Testing Service)

SAT Score Comparison CCSU to Connecticut by Race & Gender

Afr Am/

Black

Asian Hispanic White Afr Am/

Black

Asian Hispanic White

Women Men

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

12008

54

10

04

90

6 10

12

91

8 99

1

98

0 10

43

83

4

99

1

86

0

10

41

83

8

11

16

92

1

10

74

CCSUCT

SOURCE: College Bound Seniors (2007, Educational Testing Service)

CCSU SAT Student Percentiles within Race and Gender Category SAT percentiles of CCSU students WITHIN

their own race/ethnicity & gender category

Gender Race/Ethnicity Critical Reading Math

Men Asian 34 29

Black or Afr. American 64 67

Hispanic 61 60

White 44 45

Women Asian 39 66

Black or Afr. American 55 55

Hispanic 59 59

White 42 45

Projected Change in SAT Scores by Change in Demographics Assume that mean SAT scores for students for

each race/ethnicity and gender category remain at CCSU 2007 levels.

985

995

1005

1015

* Assumes all HS grads complete all required coursework for college entry

Predictive power of SAT Scores (1)

SAT Scores have predicted power for students who graduate in the top half of their HS class

SAT is not predictive for students who graduate in the bottom of their HS class – they perform equally poorly regardless of SAT score

Predictive power of SAT Scores (2)

Below

800

900-

990

1100

-119

0

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1st q

uarti

le

2nd

quar

tile

3rd

quar

tile

4th

quar

tile

First Semester GPA by SAT Score and HS Class Rank(First-Time, Full-Time Students, 1999-2001)

1st quartile

2nd quartile

3rd quartile

4th quartile

1s

t S

em

GP

A

Rank in HS Class

17%

35%

35%

13%

Implications

Population shift will change the demographic profile of CCSU Student body will become more diverse Increased competition for qualified students

among all institutions Additional effort and new recruitment

strategies will likely be needed simply to maintain enrollment and quality indicators at current levels

demographic change in the u.s. and connecticut related to the college-bound population presented to...

Documents

overview population

implications of population

united states us population

projected change

collegebound population

demographic change

change n change pct

raceethnicity unknown