could the north pacific oscillation be modified by the ...€¦ · chen et al. (2015, 2018); tseng...

Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the Initiation of East Asian Winter Monsoon? Yu-heng Tseng 1 , Ruiqiang Ding 2 , Sen Zhao 3 , Yi- Chun Kuo 1 1 Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan 2 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China 3 U. Hawaii, Manoa, USA

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Page 1: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the Initiation of East Asian Winter Monsoon?

Yu-heng Tseng1, Ruiqiang Ding2, Sen Zhao3, Yi-Chun Kuo1

1Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan2Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

3U. Hawaii, Manoa, USA

Ding et al. (2015c); Ding et al. (2016)

Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a);SFM

Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b)

Ding et al. (2015b)

New North Pacific climate paradigm

Tropical-extratropical interaction

Ding et al. (2017a)

Ding et al. (2017b)

Hu et al. (2017a; 2017b)

Miller et al. (2017)

Page 3: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Western North Pacific-Basin scaleCorrelation of Pacific SSTa (3-month running mean) and Jan.(1) Niño3.4 at different lags from 1948–2012

Tseng et al. (2017)Also Wang et al. (2012)

Page 4: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

• characterized by strong NW (NE) winds and cold temp. over the northern China (southern PAMS) region

East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM)

EAWMI=averaged -V120-140E,5-25N (similar to Chen et al., 2000)Shading: dSLP/dy

• SH source• Land/ocean contract

Page 5: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Lag-relation between EAWMI and NPO poles(1958-2017)

The correlation is not very high except the southern tip of the south pole (southern branch of the VM)

NPO [winter(0)] VM [FMA(+1)]

El Nino [winter(+1)]

SFSFM

Page 6: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Lag correlation of SLPa with Nov. and Dec. EAWMI

Nov.

Dec.

Modifying the southern pole

Page 7: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

AGCM forcing sensitivity

Numerical experiments:CAM5, Year 2000 (control, 20 years after quasi equilibrium)SST forcing x1SST forcing x2SST forcing x(-2)

NPO magnitudes are modified

Page 8: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Wave activity fluxes

Near surface

500hPa

Clear wave propagation activities

Page 9: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Wave activity fluxes

200 hPa

500 hPa

Much stronger at 200 hPa

Page 10: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Conclusion• NPO/VM: a important footprint of the meridional

variability through the tropic-extratropical teleconnection (precursor of ENSO/PDO)

• The initialization of EAWM (Nov.) influences the development of NPO (from the south pole specifically)

• The south pole of NPO directly connects to the VM evolution into the tropics

• Model analysis confirms the pathway modifying NPOthrough the Rossby wave propagation activies

Questions: Can the improved SLPa associated with ENSO in the CESM2 change the pathway?

Page 11: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

The dominant surface pattern and variability in the North Pacific-2nd mode

Covariability mode of SLP and SST anomalies from CEOF2 (1948-2012)North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)

Victoria Mode (VM) or NPGO (or PMM)

• NPO itself is a stochastic mode of variability (e.g., Rogers 1981)

• However, a portion of the NPO (southern node) is dynamically linked to the CPW variability (Di Lorenzo, 2010; Furtado et al., 2012).

Here, we will show the development of NPO can also be initialized by the EAWM

Miller et al. (2017)

Page 12: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Correlation of NDJ EAWMI with several lags of GH, Ω and Tair (25˚N)

Vertical structure

Southern lobe of the NPO (180-220E)

Page 13: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Verified by the Rossby Wave Ray• Dispersion relation• Perturbed wave sources in the WNP

(Zhao et al., 2015 J. Clim.;Li et al., 2015 JAS)

Page 14: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Rossby wave ray tracingNear surface mid-troposphere

Page 15: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Rossby wave ray tracing250 hPa mid-troposphere

Page 16: Could the North Pacific Oscillation Be Modified by the ...€¦ · Chen et al. (2015, 2018); Tseng et al. (2017a); SFM. Ding et al. (2015a); Tseng et al. (2017b) Ding et al. (2015b)

Conclusion• NPO/VM: a important footprint of the meridional

variability through the tropic-extratropical teleconnection (precursor of ENSO/PDO)

• The initialization of EAWM (Nov.) influences the development of NPO (from the south pole specifically)

• The south pole of NPO directly connects to the VM evolution into the tropics

• The vertical structure is also consistent with the Rossbywave ray trajectories

• Model analysis confirms the modification of NPO, further ensemble experiments and wave-activity flux analysis will be done

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