Planning for the Future – Crossrail 2Leeds University – 17 February 2016Michele Dix, Managing Director

TfL’s purpose

• Meet the rising expectations of our customers and users

• Plan ahead to meet the challenges of a growing population

• Unlock economic development and growth

Keep London working and growing and make life in London better

What we do

Number of journeys made in London in 2013/14

2.4 bn

Buses

1.5 m

Dial-a-ride

Rivers

8.6 m

Santander cycles

8.2 m

Emirates Air Line

DLR

101.6 m

205.3 mLondon Overground

135.7 m

Tramlink

31.2 m

1.26 bn

London Underground

Cycling

Taxi and PHV 147.5 m

3.65 bn

Roads (minus Taxi/PHV)

1.4 m

More than 30 million journeys every dayPublic transport mode share for London has increased by 10.6% since 2000We are delivering one of the world's largestinvestment programmesWe manage 580km of London's busiest roads and all6,200 traffic signalsWe regulate taxis and private hire trade

£200bn of freight is moved on London's roads every year

We operate the Congestion Charging and Low Emission Zone

The Role of Mayoral StrategiesDemocratic accountability and transparency

The Mayor's Transport Strategy – 2010 Objectives

Sources of funding – 2015/16

Total income £11bn

42% 17% 8% 6% 20% 7%Fares Grant Crossrail

grantCommercial

and Congestion Charge

Cash and borrowing

Business Rate Retention

Where the money is spent – 2015/16All income is spent on running and improving transport services. Because of this, there is no 'retained profit'.

Investment

Running the network

£11bn

34%

66%

London is growing

Ensuring population growth is productive growth

London is already one of the most densely inhabited and productive world cities and therefore vital to the UK economy –

its growth will be accommodated by further increasing the density of new development.

1.6mNew

Londoners

0.6mNew jobs

Population

Employment

Billions more trips on public transport and roads11.

5

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

11.5

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

million

residents

billio

n tri

ps

11bn annual trips in 2030

London's population: 10m in 2030

Opportunities across London

Opportunity AreaArea for Intensification

Transport investment

We are delivering one of the largest and most complex programmes of transport capital investment in the world

£4bn Roads Modernisation Programme

Europe’s largest infrastructure project, Crossrail

Tube and Rail Modernisation Programme

£900m Cycling Vision

Five major schemes: to enable growth, movement and rejuvenate public space

A total of 169 smaller schemes to improve our roads

12 key junction improvements addressing safety

Signal modernisation:dynamic control cuts delays by 12% at junctions

Modernisation and maintenance of 1,800 bridges and 12 tunnels,9,000,000m2 of carriageway, 1,000+ miles of footways and cycle lanes

Our Capital Programme – optimising

Example: Old Street £17m investment£26.5m user benefits£32.6m local property value increase(estimated benefits due to improved urban realm in addition to positive standard cost-benefit analysis)

Investing in the urban realm

Our plan will deliver a 5% bus network capacity increase

89% of London’s business leaders think there should be funding to keep bus fares affordable across London

Sustaining the bus network

Health impacts of poor air quality will become more challenging as London grows and becomes increasingly dense. We have already taken a number of steps in recent years to reduce transport-related emissions, including:LoLondon-wide Low Emission Zone

Ultra Low Emission ZoneCongestion ChargeTaxi age limits Cleaner buses

Ultra Low Emission Vehicle InfrastructureSustainable TransportMayor’s Air Quality Fund

Air quality – action for health

• Today 25% of our Tube stations are step-free from street to platform

• By 2024 56% of all our stations will be step-free

• All our buses and the DLR are accessible• Our investment includes

accessibility features as standard in new rolling stock, buses, station upgrades, roads schemes and urban realm improvements that will support more independent travel by disabled people

Accessibility – access to opportunities

• New walk-through, higher-capacity trains on the District line

• 36 trains per hour on the Victoria, Jubilee &

• Northern lines

• Major station transformations at Tottenham Court Road , Bond Street, Victoria, Bank, Holborn & Camden

• The Northern line Extension

• Signalling modernisation for faster, more frequent trains on the District, Circle, Metropolitan &Hammersmith & City lines

Desk fans used to cool Earl's Court signalling equipment, 2015

Nearly all (99%) London business leaders think the Tube modernisations should be a priority

Our Capital Programme – Tube modernisation

Once completed it will deliver:

• 60 per cent increase in capacity on the line

• Around 100 new trains

• At least 33 trains per hour

Our Capital Programme – Piccadilly line upgrade

Improvements are being delivered now but new investment and trains will come post 2025

Bakerloo and Central line investment

50% of Night Bus users are going to or from workNight Bus use has increased 170% since 2000

£360m boost to the economy

At least 2,000 new jobs

Night Tube – transforming the night-time economy

Improving existing networks is essential but new links are also needed

1981

1999

1987

2019

Transport links at Canary Wharf

New road links BusesDLRJubilee Crossrail

Only integrated plans can unlock growth

Example Opportunity AreasVauxhall Nine Elms – 24,000 new jobs, 16,000 new homes• Roads improvements• Reconfiguring bus routes• Station capacity upgrade• New Tube ExtensionBarking Riverside – 10,800 new homes• High-quality new bus service• Road investment• New rail extension

Future infrastructure projects

•The next big infrastructure projects to drive continued economic growth in London and across the UK are schemes with the potential to unlock new homes and jobs in areas of London with major development capacity

•Crossrail 2 is an immediate priority

East London river crossings

Tram extensions

Bakerloo line extension

Road tunnels

25

Crossrail 2 – what role does it play• A brand new railway line, serving

London and the wider South East.• Over 70km of tunnel would connect

the existing National Rail networks in Surrey and Hertfordshire, through central London. 51 stations served directly by Crossrail 2 services

• High frequency: trains up to every 120 seconds (30 trains per hour) in central core

• Provides additional rail capacity for 270,000 people to travel into central London during the peak period

• Construction could start in 2020, with the scheme open around 2030

• Joint TfL/Network Rail project

Year Output Outcome

1944 GLP Concept of a cross London tunnelled rail service introduced.

1974 London Rail Study

Chelsea-Hackney Underground line identified as possible scheme to serve future demand

1989 Central London Rail Study

Continued support for Chelsea-Hackney line as part of wider need for additional rail capacity

1991 Safeguarding Chelsea-Hackney line adopted and directions issued

2000 London East-West study

Recommended further study to look into feasibility of Chelsea-Hackney to be delivered post-Crossrail

2002-2008

Continued investigation

Ongoing engineering feasibility, planning and optioneering work on Chelsea-Hackney line.

2008 Crossrail Royal Assent

Crossrail Bill becomes a Parliamentary Act

2008 Safeguarding refresh

Safeguarding directions for Chelsea-Hackney line updated

2009 DfT requests Mayor &TfL review scheme

TfL to review case for scheme, identifying new options in light of emerging London transport (MTS) and land-use (London Plan) policy, and to refresh safeguarding

2010 / 2011

TfL and NR policy support

MTS supports new rail capacity in SW-NE corridor. NR emphasise in South East RUS crowding on SWML and WAML could be reduced by Crossrail 2

Crossrail 2 – A potted history

26

Crossrail 2: Route options long list

Tottenham Court RoadAngel

CharingCross

Piccadilly Circus

Victoria

Vauxhall

King’s Cross

Euston

King’s Road

EssexRoad

StokeNewington

Dalston J unction Hackney

Central-Downs

Finsbury Park

Alexandra Palace

SevenSisters

ClaphamJunction

CityThameslink

Moorgate-Liverpool Street

Cambridge Heath

Balham Streatham Hill

Clapham North

Streatham

Norbury

Crystal Palace

Beckhenham Junction

Tooting Broadway

Earlsfield

MitchamTown Centre

Harringay

WandsworthCentral

Parsons Green

East Putney

Mitcham Junction

Norwood J unction

Thornton Heath Pond West

Croydon

East Croydon

Waddon

Wimbledon

Sutton

Epsom Downs

Wallington

MotspurPark

Raynes Park

Surbiton

Roehampton

Epsom

ChessingtonSouth

Wimbledon Park

Kingston

Shepperton Teddington

Hampton Court

Woking

Walton-on-ThamesWeybridge

WoodGreen

StevenageHertford North

Enfield Chase

TottenhamHale

EnfieldTown

EdmontonGreen

Cheshunt

Hertford EastBroxbourne

Chingford

WalthamstowCentral

Homerton

Leytonstone

Stratford

South Woodford

Woodford

Loughton

Epping

Barking

Dagenham Dock

PitseaTilbury

Grays

2008 Safeguarded routeRoute option in existing rail corridorRoute option in new rail corridor

Some stations omitted for clarity

Clapton

Hornsey

Hoxton

ColliersWood

Crossrail 2: Route options short-listingLong-list assessment

Optimise

New shortlist

Metro Option

Regional Option

Safeguarded route (2008)

Safeguarded Option

It will help address the UK’s productivity

• The UK produces significantly less per hour worked than our main economic rivals. If we do not address this, national economic growth could stall and improvements to living standards could be held back

• Cities offer a solution to this productivity challenge because they cluster activity together, improving efficiency

• To do this and grow the economy, cities need access to a large workforce

It will help address the transport challenge• Despite the major investment

programme underway, growth is putting pressure on the transport network and could stall long-term economic growth

• Demand for National Rail services into Waterloo is set to increase by 40 per cent between today and 2043, and by a similar level across the Tube network

• Severe crowding on the London and South East rail network could double by 2041

• Problem particularly severe in the morning peak

It will help address the housing challenge• London Plan seeks to meet a need of 49,000 new homes / year but up to 63,000 pa

necessary to address backlog. • GLA SHLAA identifies sufficient land up to 2025 but shortfall thereafter (land for

additional 500,000 homes needs to be identified)• ONS projections identify need for ~57,000 additional houses in non-London CR2

Borough’s up to 2037.• ONS projections identify need for ~1.5m new houses to be delivered in London and

CR2 counties up to 2037 • Cumulative impact will require fundamental review of how cross boundary growth is

planned for – supported by cross-border infrastructure schemes Cumulative London Plan housing targets versus identified capacity

It will help address the housing challenge•  Too few homes are being built across the South East and future growth is threatened by a

housing shortage

• Part of the solution to building more homes is improving transport links to under-developed areas to make sites more attractive to developers

Housing development in Woolwich, unlocked by Crossrail

Crossrail 2 seeks to address these challenges and secure long-term economic growth

REGION-WIDE• Supporting new jobs• Improving journeys to, from& across the transport network• Maintain and enhance environmental quality• Accommodate housing growth

THE NORTH EAST• Maximising housing growth

and regeneration in opportunity areas like Upper Lea Valley and beyond

CENTRAL LONDON• Intensify and grow London’s Central

Activities Zone (CAZ) by increasing employment density

• Reduce levels of congestion and crowding on travel services

• Ensure adequate connectivity between HS2 and surrounding region

THE SOUTH WEST• Reduce levels of congestion

on key services and at key stations, particularly on South West Mainline

Enables the development of upto 200,000 new homes

Supports up to 200,000 new jobsin London and the wider South

East

Supports 60,000+ construction sector and supply chain jobs across the UK

Crossrail 2 - Economic benefits

• Analysis by KPMG shows that it could add up to £102bn to the UK’s GVA, providing new tax revenues that would payback the Government’s investment

• Could generate housing land value uplift (HVU) of £15bn

Economic benefits

Crossrail 2’s supply chain would stretch around the UK

Support 60,000 jobs around the country

SMEs could benefit from more than £5bn spend

Would support hundreds of apprenticeships

The UK has a productivity gap. Increased productivity occurs with increased employment densities

Source: Volterra

Source: Office of National Statistics (ONS)

Productivity vs Employment Density.

UK Cities, 2008-2012

The UK’s Productivity compared to G7 countries (GDP per hour worked)

Applying the principles of ‘TIEP’ shows that the Regional Scheme could deliver up to £102bn of net national GVA benefits.- Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) modelling supports this conclusion

Summary net national present value GVA scenarios (£bn, 2011 prices, discounted to 2015)

Source: National GVA Impacts, KPMG, 2015

• Transform travel across London and the wider South East, providing direct train services to destinations across the region

• Provides new rail capacity for 270,000 people to access central London during peak periods, helping relieve crowding and congestion on the transport network

Crossrail 2 – Transport benefits

• Significantly improve step-free access across the rail network

• Significant journey time benefits for a wide range of journeys

Transport benefits

Crossrail 2 would transform travel across London and the wider South East, providing direct train services to destinations across the region. This would benefit places from Southampton to the Wash

The Crossrail 2 Growth Commission

Crossrail 2 is not just about building a railway.

The work of the Growth Commission is to:• Identify the ambitions of local authorities

and key stakeholders along the route• Ensure that these ambitions are aligned

with the design of the railway (eg. station entrances and exits facing the right way !)

• Understand local infrastructure needs which could help unlock additional Crossrail 2 related development

• Identify potential partnership and delivery arrangements

• Advise on implications of growth ambitions on London Plan revisions

• Report in Spring 2016

Of the Crossrail 2 regional scheme’s £28.7bn cost, a contribution of at least half from local sources remains feasible

Source: Crossrail 2 Financial Review, PWC, 2015

Operat

ing su

rplus

Busine

ss Rate

s Sup

plemen

t

Mayoral

CIL

Resale o

f Lan

d and

Prop

erty

Counci

l Tax P

recep

t

Total

Lond

on Con

tributi

on

Nation

al Rail

Abstrac

tion

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

11.6%

20.3%

16.9%6.3% 1.4% 56.5% 12.9%

Sources of Funding for Crossrail 2(as % of total funding requirement)

% o

f to

tal f

undi

ng r

equi

rem

ent

Assumes RPI+0 to

2020 then RPI+0.5

Assume 50% real

terms recovery of

L&P cost

Based on P80 cost (circa

47% contingency)

Further work

needed

Assumes doubled rate and increased

housebuilding

Further funding options

Potential incremental Stamp Duty receipts to exchequer of circa £20bn, including circa £5bn on additional homes unlocked (remainder on existing stock).

Devolution of business rates recently announced offers potential to capture growth

Options considered in PWC’s initial work but not progressed include:

• Employment tax• Hotel bed levy• Greenfield development• Fares increases

Operating s

urplus

Business

Rates S

upplement

Mayoral

CIL

Resale o

f Lan

d and Property

Council Ta

x Precep

t

Total

(exis

ting mech

anisms)

Lower b

ound excheq

uer im

pact

Upper bound ex

cheq

uer im

pact

Total

(incl e

xcheq

uer im

pact)

National R

ail Abstr

action

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

12% 20%

17%

6% 1%

56%

84%

156%

212%

13%

Sources of Funding for Crossrail 2(as % of total funding requirement)

% o

f tot

al fu

ndin

g re

quire

men

t

By integrating the strategic and financial cases, the scheme more than covers its costs

Direct London contribution

Indirect London contribution

A programme for delivery: challenging but achievable – provided there is a clear commitment and funding to develop the scheme

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

5-6 Year Development Phase 10-12 Year Delivery Phase Operations

Key milestones:•Public consultation – Autumn 2015

•National Infrastructure Commission – March 2016

•Submit powers application – 2017/18

•Start construction – 2020/21

•First Crossrail 2 service – 2030/31