current situation and strategic development of … · current situation and strategic development...

CURRENT SITUATION AND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTOF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY

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CURRENT SITUATIONAND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT

OF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY

DEPUTY HEAD OF STRATEGICDEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT

S. PANKRATOV


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World Gross Domestic Product

-7.5

-5

-2.5

0

2.5

5

7.5

%

NAFTA* WesternEurope

Japan OtherAmericas

EmergingEurope

Mideast-N.Africa

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Other Asia-Pacific

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

* - North American Free Trade Agreement


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Energy demand (IEA scenario)

34.0%20.9%

25.7%

19.4%

Oil Coil Gas Other

30.0%

21.2% 28.6%

20.2%

2007 2030

Total: 12.0 btoe Total: 16.8 btoe

2007 2030 Growth in 2007-2030 period, %

Oil, MB/day 85 105 24

Gas, BCM 3.0 4.3 41

World oil and gas demand (basic scenario)


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Global economic crisis and Russian economy

-11.5%

-5%-7.3%

-35%

-18.9%

Industrial outputEnergy

resourcesGas

consumption Total export Gas export

RUSSIA

GAS PRODUCTION DECREASE BY 12.3 %

GLOBALECONOMIC CRISIS


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Gas Consumption in Russia

85%93%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2008 2009


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Gas Demand Forecast For Domestic Market

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fall of industrial production and gas

consumption

Growth of industrial

production and gas

consumption

Stabilization of country's economy

Reaching the pre-crisis level of

economic performance

Progressive development of economy and growth of gas

consumption


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Gazprom group's natural gas export supplies 2008-2009

2008 2009

90%

58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


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380

480

580

680

2009 2010 2015 2020

- Eastern Siberia and Far East- Arctic Shelf- New fields in Nadym-Pur-Taz

- Fields of Yamal peninsula- Currently existing projects- Gas Production Alternatives

Gas Production Scenarios

Adaptive scenarios allow Gazprom to mobilise reserves in a timely manneraccording to market demand as well as to develop its production and transportation system

as needed, do not create excess capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2009 2020

≥ 620 bcm

380

480

580

680

2009 2010 2015 2020


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Natural gas reserves of Russian Federation

48 33

Proved reserves

Total resources – 250 tcm Proved reserves – 48 tcm

GAZPROM’sproved reserves

26%26%SHARE RUSSIAN PROVEDRESERVES IN WORLD

RESERVESREPLACEMENTRATIO

NEXT 10 YEARS>1


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Russian Unified Gas Supply System (UGSS)

Gas fields in exploration andproduction - 122Total length of gaspipelines, km - 159 500Compressor stations (CS) - 219Total compressorcapacity, MMkW - 42Underground storage facilities - 25Average distanceof gastransportation throughRussia, km - 2900


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-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2008 2030

Mto

e

Production Import Consumption Export

53,2 %

46,8 %

95,6

38,7

61,3

96,6 %

3,4 4,4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2008 2030

Mto

eOil, oil products, coal and others Gas

57% 68%

32% 43%

20082030

* to 2005 year level

43% DOUBLEDOUBLEDECREASEDECREASE

New Russian Energy Strategy 2030

19%14% 22%

45%53%

18% 19%10%

Total Final ConsumptionTotal Final Consumption

GDP Energy Intensity GDP Energy Intensity Primary Energy ResourcesPrimary Energy Resources

20302008

OilOthers

GASGAS::VOLUME INCREASE,VOLUME INCREASE,SHARE DECREASESHARE DECREASE

GasGas

OilCoal

OthersCoal

Energy Resources ExportEnergy Resources Export

85*%


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Scenarios for Gas Demand

RussiaRussia

NorthNorth--East AsiaEast Asia

Europe, FSU and Baltic CountriesEurope, FSU and Baltic Countries

USA USA

LONGTERM LONGTERM CONTRACTSCONTRACTS

COMPETITIONCOMPETITION

0

200

400

600

2008 2010 2015 2020

0

200

400

600

2008 2010 2015 2020

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2008 2010 2015 2020

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2008 2010 2015 2020


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300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2010 2015 2020

European market natural gas demand forecast

2020 Forecast, bcm Natural gas demand in Europe (2009 forecasts turndown), bcm

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

IEA

200

9

DO

E 20

09

CER

A 2

009

EC 2

008

Euro

gas

2009 IG

U

Natural gas demand in Europe in 2008


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Capital Expenditures Programs*

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009-2012 2013-2016 2017-2020

New projects

Reconstruction

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009-2012 2013-2016 2017-2020

Capital Expenditures (annual average)Capital Expenditures (annual average)* within Unified GasSupply System

ProductionProduction TransportationTransportation

0

250

500

750

1 000

2009-2012 2013-2016 2017-2020

bln

RR

p.a

. Exploration Production TransportationProcessing Others


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CURRENT SITUATIONAND STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT

OF RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY

DEPUTY HEAD OF STRATEGICDEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT

S. PANKRATOV

current situation and strategic development of … · current situation and strategic development...

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