data & attribution in a multi-channel...
TRANSCRIPT
Data & Attribution in a Multi-Channel Marketplace
www.cdrfg.com 301-858-1500
Today’s Consumer … • Receives multiple
touches
• Across multiple channels
• On multiple devices
Outd
oor A
dvertising
Tele
mar
keti
ng
MULTI- TOUCH,
CHANNEL, DEVICE
MARKETING
New Marketing Ecosystem
Why does it matter?
In a recent survey of 1,000 marketers conducted by AdRoll, their top reasons for tracking attribution…
• 71% Understanding our customers
• 56% Understanding where to apply marketing spend
• 44% Justifying marketing budget
• 43% Optimizing campaign performance
And yet only HALF of marketers say they have an attribution in place! This is likely a much smaller number for non-profits.
Two Major Steps
1. Identifying the Paths 2. Allocating the Credit
DRTV Paths
TV Commercial
Landing Page
DRTV Sustainers Join Source
We know that out of the over 200,000 sustainers attributable to DRTV: % join through the Call Center % join through the Microsite % join through the Main Website % join through Direct Mail
Daily DRTV Airtime Levels
DRTV Microsite Donations by Day
Main WWP Web Donations by Day
DRTV Impact on SEM Conversions
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
Oct
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Au
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emb
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Feb
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Media Spend
Conversions
DRTV Impact on Direct Mail
DRTV Sustainers Join Source
We know that out of the over 200,000 sustainers attributable to DRTV: 42% join through the Call Center 44% join through the Microsite 12% join through the Main Website (10 minute window around a spot airing)
2% join through Direct Mail
* While this is important to know it gives all the credit to the Last Touch *
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
100 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 100
Matchback Example
Museum Acquisition Mailing in Sept 2013
Confirmed Response:
Mail Qty #New
MembersResp Rate AVG Gift
Gross Revenue Total Cost
Net Revenue
Cost to Acq R.O.I
Coded Mail 311,587 296 0.09% $119.68 $35,425 $124,242 ($88,817) ($300.06) -71%
Museum Matchback Example
Acquisition Mailing in Sept 2013
Confirmed Response:
With Matchback:
Resulted in 300% increase in Net Revenue!
Mail Qty #New
MembersResp Rate AVG Gift
Gross Revenue Total Cost
Net Revenue
Cost to Acq R.O.I
Coded Mail 311,587 296 0.09% $119.68 $35,425 $124,242 ($88,817) ($300.06) -71%
Mail Qty #New
MembersResp Rate AVG Gift
Gross Revenue Total Cost
Net Revenue
Cost to Acq R.O.I
Coded Mail 311,587 296 0.09% $119.68 $35,425 $124,242 ($88,817) ($300.06) -71%Matchback 2,534 $111.56 $282,706 $282,706 $111.56TOTAL 311,587 2,830 0.91% $112.41 $318,131 $124,242 $193,888 $68.51 156%
Museum Matchback Example
What originally looked like a 13% Direct Mail allocation is in reality much greater as Direct Mail impacted all other join sources
39.9%
25.6%
17.0%
12.9%
4.6%
Onsite (Lobby)
Online
Retail (All Stores,eCommerce, Mail Order)
Mail / White Mail
Back Office / Phone
A Donor’s Experience is NOT One Touch
Ads
Direct Mail
Direct Mail
Direct Mail
Tele- marketing
Tele- marketing
$
Thoughts about Last Touch
• So many of us use Last Touch Allocation • “if the gift comes in the mail, than Direct Mail gets the
revenue”
• What we found for WWP DRTV Sustainers*: • Almost 1,000 attended a WWP event prior to joining
• Almost 6,000 received an email 30 days prior to joining
• Almost 8,000 received an Acquisition mailing 60 days prior to joining
• Over 18,000 received a Donor mailing 60 days prior to joining
*Numbers above do not account for overlap. Many received a combination of touches.
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
• Linear – each touchpoint in the conversion path shares credit for the donation
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
• Linear – each touchpoint in the conversion path shares credit for the donation
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
20 20 20 20 20
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
• Linear – each touchpoint in the conversion path shares credit for the donation
• Position Based – more weight is given to the first and last touchpoints with midstream touchpoints marginalized
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
30 15 10 15 30
Response Decay
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
• Linear – each touchpoint in the conversion path shares credit for the donation
• Position Based – more weight is given to the first and last touchpoints with midstream touchpoints marginalized
• Tiered or Time Decay – the touchpoints closest in time to the donation get most of the credit
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
• Linear – each touchpoint in the conversion path shares credit for the donation
• Position Based – more weight is given to the first and last touchpoints with midstream touchpoints marginalized
• Tiered or Time Decay – the touchpoints closest in time to the donation get most of the credit
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
0 10 20 30 40
• First Touch/Last Touch – whatever the first or last channel of outward communication was with the respondent receives 100% credit for donation
• Linear – each touchpoint in the conversion path shares credit for the donation
• Position Based – more weight is given to the first and last touchpoints with midstream touchpoints marginalized
• Tiered or Time Decay – the touchpoints closest in time to the donation get most of the credit
Fractional Allocation MAIL EMAIL PHONE EMAIL AD
0 10 20 30 40
100 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 100
20 20 20 20 20
30 15 10 15 30
One big math problem
Mail Email Phone Email 2 Cookie Ad Donation
$100
3/18/14* 3/27/14 4/1/14 4/3/14 3/18-4/12/14 4/10/14
Recency (Tiered)
Attribution
Allocation
based on 1 month shortened timeframe
• Drop date*, not in home
One big math problem
Mail Email Phone Email 2 Cookie Ad Donation
$100
3/18/14* 3/27/14 4/1/14 4/3/14 3/18-4/12/14 4/10/14
Recency (Tiered) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 3.6
Attribution
Allocation
based on 1 month shortened timeframe
• Drop date*, not in home
Mail Email Phone Email 2 Cookie Ad Donation
$100
3/18/14* 3/27/14 4/1/14 4/3/14 3/18-4/12/14 4/10/14
Recency (Tiered) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 3.6
Attribution 13.9% 16.7% 19.4% 22.2% 27.8%
Allocation $13.90 $16.70 $19.40 $22.20 $27.80 $100
based on 1 month shortened timeframe
One big math problem
• Drop date*, not in home
• Drop date*, not in home
One big math problem
Mail Email Phone Email 2 Cookie Ad Donation
$100
3/18/13* 3/27/13 4/1/13 4/3/13 3/18-4/12/13 4/10/13
Recency (Tiered) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 3.6
Attribution 13.9% 16.7% 19.4% 22.2% 27.8%
Allocation $13.90 $16.70 $19.40 $22.20 $27.80 $100
based on 1 month shortened timeframe
This example does not take into account differences in Channel responsiveness
Control Groups No Touch – randomly selected targets withheld from all direct touches
Single Touch – randomly selected targets given a single touchpoint (i.e. mail, email, Facebook Custom Audiences, Cookie Matches, phone)
Bucket Test Multi Touch – combination touchpoints (i.e. mail and email) to test if effects are additive versus multiplicative compared to the control
*For best results, no other correspondence should be
directed to these audiences for 60 days after the touches!
Controlled Experiment
Channel Weights
Mail Email Phone Cookie Ad
Single Touch Response Rates 1.25% 0.4% 8% 0.1%
Control (organic) 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09%
Difference* 1.16% 0.31% 7.91% 0.01%
Weight 0.49 0.13 3.37 0.004
*collective average difference 2.35%
Email Ads Direct Mail
Tele- marketing
Mail Email Phone Email 2 Cookie Ad Donation
$100
3/18/13* 3/27/2013 4/1/2013 4/3/2013 3/18-4/12/13 4/10/2013
Recency 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1
Channel Weight 0.49 0.13 3.37 0.13 0.004
Adjusted Weighting 0.99 0.73 4.07 0.93 1.004 7.724
Adjusted Attribution 12.82% 9.45% 52.69% 12.04% 13.00%
Allocation $12.82 $9.45 $52.69 $12.04 $13.00 $100
Putting it all together
Mail Email Phone Email 2 Cookie Ad
Last Touch – – – – $100.00
Fractional Allocation $13.90 $16.70 $19.40 $22.20 $27.80
Weighted Allocation $12.82 $9.45 $52.69 $12.04 $13.00
Our 3 Examples
Moving from Theory to Practice
• Baby Steps: Walk before you Run • Select a Single Path or Path Component
• Select a Single Channel
• Take Advantage of the Tools You Have: Google Analytics
• Controlled Experiments are a Must
• Coding is Queen
Google Analytics
Google Analytic Path Reports
Customize Your GA Model
• Select your Base Model
• Select Your Lookback Period
• Select Credit for User Engagement
- Time on Site or Page Depth
• Apply Custom Rules
Source: Occam’s Razor – blog by Avinash Kaushik
Google Analytics Model Comparison Tool
Considerations
•Withholding prospects during
testing
•Some organic donations will be made no matter what
•Still need to look at campaign results “the old fashioned way”
•Will need to update model yearly as communication preferences change
•Ability to act on the information
•SPAM and digital privacy issues will make online communications tougher
•Don’t know which people are particularly channel responsive
•Additional channels complicate the equation
•Need a sophisticated data warehouse and tracking system in place
Thank you! Questions and/or comments?
www.cdrfg.com 301-858-1500