digital travel summit channel attribution 2014 04-01
DESCRIPTION
Algorithmic marketing channel attribution: why it's important, who is doing it, how it will change your business and how to decide what method is right for you.TRANSCRIPT
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Marketing Channel Attribution Modeling To Improve Conversion Rates
Jonathan Isernhagen
Digital Travel Summit Day 1
Digital Travel Summit
4/1/2014
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Agenda
1) Marketers’ mission
2) Calculating channel ROIa) spendb) VCM
3) Attributiona) algorithmic
i. data assemblyii. types of models
b) arbitrary
4) Options for action
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
CEO’s/Our duty to the (publically-traded) company
• Maximize brand awareness/sentiment?
• Maximize client loyalty?
• Maximize co-worker satisfaction?
• Drive traffic to the site?
• Maximize shopper movement down the funnel?
• Maximize transaction volumes?
• Maximize shareholder value?
• Maximize individual channel ROI?
• “Give back" to the community through charitable actions?
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Example: Apple, Inc.
“Apple's Board of Directors oversees the Chief Executive Officer and other senior management in the competent and ethical operation of Apple on a day-to-day basis and assures that the long-term interests of shareholders are being served.
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Source: http://investor.apple.com/governance.cfm
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Increase spending until $1 out brings $1 back…
….spend-spend-spend-spend-spend-stop
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
…which is the point at which incremental ROI = 0%
- 6 -
ROI = (VCM – Spend) Spend
Abbreviation Term Definition
ROI Return on Investment Indicator of investment profitability. Positive = good.
VCM Variable Contribution Margin The amount of profit driven by a given transaction.
Spend Channel Spend The amount spent driving traffic to the site during the period in question
Calculated over a specified time period of investment and return.
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Agenda
1) Marketers’ mission
2) Calculating channel ROIa) spendb) VCM
3) Attributiona) algorithmic
i. data assemblyii. types of models
b) arbitrary
4) Options for action
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
ROI = (VCM – Spend) Spend
Spend
- 8 -
Which spend do you include?
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
Marketing ≈ Farming
1)Seed = impressions
2)Transactions = fruit
- 9 -
…butmarketers plant
& harvest constantly.
C O N F I D E N T I A L
spendspendspendspend
How changes in spend can mess up ROI
- 10 -
$
time
profit
impact impact
spend
impact
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Jan Feb Mar
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Variable Contribution Margin (“VCM”)
- 11 -
ROI = (VCM – Spend) Spend
1) What is the value of each transaction?
2) Which channels deserve credit for which transactions?
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
VCM
= Transaction revenue - variable non-marketing expenses:
• Revenue: – Supplier Commissions; – GDS incentives; – Overrides (lumpy: average/booking must be assumed)– Media (not transaction-driven, but has to be modeled in
somewhere)– Attached bookings / Lifetime value: try to gauge value without
double-counting
• Expenses: – Website hosting/capacity costs– Data processing expenses– Other expenses which vary by transaction or site activity volume
- 12 [email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Which marketing treatment(s) triggered the purchase?
"Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is, I don't know which half.“
-John WanamakerFather of Modern
Advertising
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
“Hard to Know” ≠ “Random”
We may not find the correct answer, but the answer does exist.
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Google Analytics attribution options
Google offers several attribution mechanisms out of the box
Choosing the wrong model will have consequences.
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
How badly do you want to know?
Raylan: You'll pay to find that out.Boyd: What are you packing?
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Choosing your attribution strategy
Do you want/need true attribution*?
Do you havedata guys?
Do they havebandwidth for this?
Yes
No
No
Use your sitemetric solution’s
attribution
Yes
YesHire a vendor
Can you accessyour data?
Yes
No
*Do you have:1) Large enough budget?2) Multiple channels?3) Belief in ROI “knowability?”
DIY
No
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Agenda
1) Marketers’ mission
2) Calculating channel ROIa) spendb) VCM
3) Attributiona) algorithmic
i. data assemblyii. types of models
b) arbitrary
4) Options for action
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
• Sends• Opens
Collecting the necessary data
Analysis space
• Clicks• Visitors
• Transactions• VCM• Media impressions
Site metrics tool
Back office system
• Channel-specific phone #s
Email service provider
Call Center IVR
• Impressions• Clicks• Spend
Display ad server
e.g. SAS, Revolution Analytics,SPSS, Teradata Warehouse Miner
SEM bid management tool
• Impressions• Clicks• Spend
• GRPs• Spend
Television plan
• Impressions• Clicks• Spend
Meta search feeds
Spend
Manual spend entry table
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Connecting the necessary data
Transactions Profiles Customers
Sessions
∞ 1∞ 1Clicks:TransactionsClicks ∞ 11 ∞
∞ 1∞ 1
Calls
Sends
Opens∞1
∞1
IVR
GRPs
TV planImpressions
Ad server
Impressions
∞ 1
∞ 1
∞ 1
Back officeSite monitoring tool CRM system
1 ∞
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
Profile deduplication is crucial
Profiles Customers∞ 1
CRM system
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1) App registration information tied to desktop profile
2) Logged-in customer information on multiple devices
3) E-mails sent to same address opened on multiple devices
4) Third-party services with network visibility
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Impressions are also important
This example overcredits impressions (excludes other channels) but it gives some idea of the sub-surface portion of the
impressions iceberg.
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Forrester 2012Q2 survey of attribution vendors
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
24
Algorithmic attribution per Visual IQ:Top Down (MMO) & Bottom Up (Fractional Attribution)
SUMMARY LEVEL DATA USER LEVEL DATA
CHANNELS Offline + digital cross channel Digital media channels
ROLE Strategic: Optimize spend across channelsTactical: Generates granular
media recommendations
OUTPUT Cross channel insight Full fractional attribution
CAPTURES Seasonality and external factorsInterplay between digital touch
point and channels
PREDICTABLE GRANULARITY
Conversions at aggregate level Propensity to convert at user level
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
“Given all the history we know, how likely is this shopper to convert soon?”
Datasong answers with a 2-stage model:
-Are Brand shoppers (BSEM, BSEO, DTI) likely to book? Yes
-Did your last TV spot cause their brand loyalty? Maybe
Algorithmic attribution per DataSong: Survival Modeling
Model 2Accuracy 81%
Model 1Accuracy 68%
0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 10
0.5
1
NonConverters Converters
0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 10
0.5
1
NonConverters Converters
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
Algorithmic attribution per DataSong: Survival Modeling
1) Axes show the time since last channel exposure2) Dots represent converters vs. nonConverters3) Orange line represents the relationship between 2
variables, e.g.:a) time since last email andb) time since last affiliate visit
4) Responders: everyone above the line. We count the folks above the line and see what our accuracy is
5) Attribution: once satisfied with a model(s), we’d:a) take a given order, b) see the time since last email and affiliate and based on
the timing, and;c) where we are on the orange line, so;d) we have a means to allocate which was more causal.
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.5
1
NonConverters Converters
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
Survival Modeling: DIY
Recommended by one of our PhD statisticians.
“SAS usage is not necessary.”
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C O N F I D E N T I A L- 28 -
Algorithmic attribution per Google: Interaction Method (“Shapley value”)
Brand SEM Email
2%
Conversion
Brand SEM Email
3%
Conversion
Every combination (“coalition”) of clicks is tested.
“How important is each player to the overall cooperation?”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
Display
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Running the process
1) For each site visitora) Assemble visit historyb) Create variables to represent:
i. Channel impressionsii. Channel clicksiii.Past purchases
2) Regress or use machine learning algorithma) Ascertain which channel touches predict bookingb) Give VCM credit to causal channels
3) Calculate ROIa) Use each channel’s VCM and spendb) Where ROI is positive, spend upc) Where ROI is negative, cut spend or change tactics
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Output
Channel* Desktop Tablet Mobile
Brand 20%
Brand SEM 62% 51% 38%
Display -5% -12% -7%
Display - Retargeting 26% 25% 29%
Email 250%
Meta search 18% 22% 10%
Non-brand SEM -30% -18% -40%
SEO 500% 520% 390%
Social media -5% -15% 15%
- 30 -
*of impression/click, not necessarily of consumer conversion
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Agenda
1) Marketers’ mission
2) Calculating channel ROIa) spendb) VCM
3) Attributiona) algorithmic
i. data assemblyii. types of models
b) arbitrary
4) Options for action
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
“Round up all the clicks!”
• Offline bookings• Multiple profile activity• Impressions (Display or Television/Radio/etc)• Cleared-cookie clicks
- 32 -
Leaves out:
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
55% of shoppers clear cookies every 3 months
Cookie clearing is a serious problem causing the true impact of online channels to be massively understated.
“The Consumer Side of Analytics” - Forrester/Jupiter Research 2009
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Bracketing
1) Assume for the sake of argument that one of the site tool’s attribution schemes reflects reality, but you don’t know which one.
2) Find (or create) the scheme that is most and least generous to digital channels. a) Last click: usually the least generous to digital channelsb) 3-tier: a scheme we created to favor NBSEM and Meta/TravelSearch
3) Assume that the true attribution (& ROI) lies between these extremes
4) Adjust spend and see which scheme better predicts reality.
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Tactical decision-making
Channel Easy decisions Hard decisions Tactics
Brand
Advertising heavily in target-rich geographies before/during periods of high demand.
• national vs. regional• constant vs. bursts• more air time vs fresh
creative
• A/B test across “identical” regions, observe rise in brand transactions.
• Get Comscore to measure brand awareness/intent after broadcast.
SEMSpending to capacity on Brand SEM
Whether to spend up on marginal NBSEM keywords
A/B test whether ↓ BSEM spend is offset by ↑ BSEO volume
Emailing up to 1x/week, hitting each site visitor with the message he or she is most likely to convert from.sending messages with exceptional deals.
• Whether to upgrade to a rules-base ESP system.
• Whether to saturation-bomb your e-mail list.
• Whether to push a loss-leading promo code.
Split the list, quantify lifetime value, A/B test:• Unsubscribe impact
of saturation bombing• Uplift impact of offer
personalization.• Long-term behavior
of code recipients
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C O N F I D E N T I A L
Take-away lessons
- 36 -
1) Be intentional about your attribution decisions, and creative about how to test your assumptions.
2) For top competitors in each vertical, the question is no longer “should we do algorithmic attribution?” but rather “How can we operationalize our attribution model?”
3) If your data aren’t yet in shape to support attribution & other ad hoc analyses, get that project underway.
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Attribution options - vendors
Provider MethodCost
Timing Comments1x monthly
Adobe Attribution model
Varies - 4-10 wksConsulting arm willing to address attribution questions
as one-off modeling projects.
Adometry Econometric model
Low High 12 wksForrester-acclaimed industry co-leader.
Highly display-focused.
Datasong
Attribution model w/Customer
scoring
Med
Med
6 wks
Comprehensive model which pulls in both online and offline spend impacts.
MedPer-customer demand curve to predict the expected
return on every campaign
Google Analytics
Interactions model
- - nowHas delivered digital-only channel interactions model
to beta clients.
Gauge LLC Simple regression
High - 10 wksGeneral consulting analysts, not on the efficient
frontier for this deliverable.
Kenshoo Unknown algorithm
- Med 4 wksPrimarily targeted towards SEM spend, but can be
expanded to comprise other digital channels
Visual IQEconometric
and Attribution models
High - 4-8 wksEconometric model. Offers cross-channel allocation
guidance, including offline spend.
Med-High
- 3-6 wksAttribution model. Offers within-channel campaign-
level spend guidance. No offline.
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Funnelism doesn’t drive investment decisions
[email protected] @jon_isernhagen www.linkedin.com/in/isernhagen
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Facebook visitor tracking
Visitor action Volume Trackable Useful
Ad link click Small Yes No
Sponsored news feed click Small Yes No
Organic click Small Yes No
Ad impression Large Yes Yes
Sponsored news impression Large No Yes
Organic impression Large No Yes