Demographic Destiny:  Higher Education Enrollment Trends

Don Hossler

Professor of Educational Leadership & Policy Studies

Indiana University Bloomington

An Exemplar

• Demographic and Enrollment Trends– The Nation– New York

• Public Policy Trends– Federal Trends– State Trends

• Implications for the Private Sector– Policy Implications– Enrollment Management Implications

The Beginning of the Pipeline

High School Graduates

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

Graduates 2,643 2,773 2,493 2,481 2,519 2,612 2,762 2,839 2,920 2,965 3,092 3,181 3,127

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

11%Growth

Source: U.S. Department of Education

28% Growth

Minority School Enrollments

36% to 50%

21% to 35%

10% to 20%

More than 50%

Less than 10%Source: U.S. Department of Education

Enrollment Patterns Among Four-Year Institutions

70.5%

70.7%

68.9%

A Summative Look at Market Share Across All Sectors

41.12% 40.93% 41.31% 41.06% 40.21% 39.79%

37.64% 37.60% 36.78% 36.73% 37.83% 38.26%

21.24% 21.47% 21.91% 22.21% 21.97% 21.95%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

private 4

public 2

public 4

Source: U. S. Department of Education

Switching to a State View

The Next Generation

The High School Pipeline – One View

559 421 486 7057175 8616 10778 14443

18406 20340 2006219097

1089414772 15854

19523

9652893027 96974

90497

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990-91 1996-97 2004-05 2011-12

Year

White, non- Hispanic

Hispanic

Black, non- Hispanic

Asian/Pacific Islander

American Indian/ Alaska Native

But What’s Under the Hood?A Look at Ethnicity of Graduates

And Where Will They Come From?

These Last Slides Present a Probable Profile of….

• Students of color• Lower income

students• Who are more likely

to be price sensitive• Who will be within

easy commuting distance of community colleges

A Look at Enrollment Patterns by Sector

It Appears the Private Sector is Doing Well

A Look Across All Sectors

An Interesting Look at the Public Sector

But, Where Do Transfers Go?

Now, What About Public Policy Shifts?

Federal Policy Trends

• Focus on transferability– From traditionally accredited 2 yr IHES– From proprietary schools

• Ways to constrain demands for financial aid

• Current federal policies being proposed could have a chilling impact on most public and private 4 years and at least indirectly advantage two year sector

Relevant State Policy Trends at the National Level

• Constrain demands for state resources going to postsecondary education– Appropriations to institutions– Support for student financial aid

• Seamless transferability– Encourage transfer & articulation agreements– Mandate them

• All of these are likely to increase the social acceptability of starting at Two-Year Colleges

New York State Policy Trends

• Little focus on seamless transferability – at least for now

• Looking for ways to constrain state appropriations for higher education

• This could result in higher tuition in the public sector and this would help privates

• State University of New York Board– What are the incentive structures for them around their institutions?

Thoughts and Implications• Private sector has done well• Demographic shifts pose potential

problems – they have more in common characteristics of students attending 2 year colleges

• Students starting in 2 year colleges already have a preference for publics

• Public policy trends could result in longer term student preference shifts toward community colleges which could result in more students at publics

• Will SUNY incentivize transferring within public sector institutions?

• Public an private, two-years and four-years should monitor these trends

• It is axiomatic, institutions that are less wealthy and selective should be more concerned