demographic diversity in texas and the dfw metro area · 2 new braunfels tx 8.0 79,152 3...

Demographic Diversity in Texas and the DFW Metro Area

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion SummitFebruary 14, 2019

@TexasDemography

Produce, interpret, and disseminate demographic information to facilitate data

driven decision making for the benefit of Texans.

Demographic Overview

• Texas is experiencing significant growth.

• Migration is the primary source of growth for metropolitan areas in Texas.

• For the second year in a row, the Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington metro area added more people between 2016 and 2017 than any other metro in the country.

• About 60% of population change in the DFW metro area can be attributed to net migration.

• Internally, the DFW metro has significant population reallocation, impacting the principal core counties of Dallas and Tarrant in very different ways.

• International migration plays a key role in population growth in the DFW metro area.

• A young and growing workforce could be a competitive edge for Texas and its growing metro areas.

• Demographic shifts may have serious implications for maintaining inclusive and equitable economic growth in the state.

3

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

CulbersonReeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Kenedy

Starr

Polk

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

Brazoria

Tyler

GrayOldham

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

Kimble

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Coke

Llano

Ector

Andrews

Milam

Travis

Knox

FallsWard

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Nueces

Taylor

Real

Bowie

Young

Lamar

Martin

Garza

DallasFisher

Moore

Kleberg

Cameron

Cooke

Hardin

Schleicher

Gillespie

Foard

Wood

Menard

La Salle

Rusk

LibertyLee

Mills

Smith

Burnet

Cottle

Zapata

Coryell

Matagorda

Brown

Motley

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

BaylorArcher

Scurry

Tom Green

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Brooks

Bailey

Deaf Smith

DeWitt

Lavaca

Donley

Hays

GoliadAtascosa

Denton

BosqueEl Paso

Fannin

Tarrant

Wharton

CraneConcho

Carson

Runnels

Fayette

Crosby

Borden

Haskell

Calhoun

Newton

Live Oak

Randall

ShelbySterling

Jefferson

Briscoe

McMullen

Parmer

Jim Hogg

Mitchell

Wilson

Victoria

Trinity

Roberts

PanolaHoward

Walker

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

HockleyDickens

Swisher

Gonzales

Winkler Anderson

Dawson

Willacy

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Harrison

Colorado

Eastland

Lubbock

Karnes

Red River

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Loving

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

Montague

Bandera

Cochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

FreestoneComanche

Glasscock

Johnson

Galveston

Henderson

Montgomery

Wichita

Brazos

Van Zandt

Chambers

Robertson

Waller

Sabine

Upshur

Hood

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

GuadalupeCaldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Washington Orange

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

134 - 10,00010,001 - 50,00050,001 - 100,000100,001 - 500,000500,001 - 4,652,980

Out of State Jobs by Texas Largest Cities, 2018

5Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southwest Economy 4th Quarter 2018 Report

Top 10 Metro Areas for Numeric Growth between 2016‐2017

Rank Metro Area 2016 Population

2017 Population

Numeric Change

Percent Change

1 Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington, TX 7,253,424 7,399,662 146,238 2.0

2 Houston‐The Woodlands‐Sugar Land, TX 6,798,010 6,892,427 94,417 1.4

3 Atlanta‐Sandy Springs‐Roswell, GA 5,795,723 5,884,736 89,013 1.5

4 Phoenix‐Mesa‐Scottsdale, AZ 4,648,498 4,737,270 88,772 1.9

5 Washington‐Arlington‐Alexandria, DC‐VA‐MD‐WV 6,150,681 6,216,589 65,908 1.1

6 Seattle‐Tacoma‐Bellevue, WA 3,802,660 3,867,046 64,386 1.7

7 Riverside‐San Bernardino‐Ontario, CA 4,523,653 4,580,670 57,017 1.3

8 Orlando‐Kissimmee‐Sanford, FL 2,453,333 2,509,831 56,498 2.3

9 Austin‐Round Rock, TX 2,060,558 2,115,827 55,269 2.7

10 Tampa‐St. Petersburg‐Clearwater, FL 3,036,525 3,091,399 54,874 1.8

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Largest U.S. Cities, 2017

Rank Place Census 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1 New York, NY 8,175,133 8,292,688 8,383,504 8,458,642 8,521,135 8,582,459 8,615,426 8,622,698

2 Los Angeles, CA 3,792,621 3,824,592 3,859,267 3,891,783 3,922,668 3,953,459 3,981,116 3,999,759

3 Chicago, IL 2,695,598 2,706,670 2,717,989 2,724,482 2,726,533 2,725,154 2,720,275 2,716,450

4 Houston, TX 2,099,451 2,125,450 2,159,824 2,198,244 2,238,795 2,282,235 2,304,482 2,312,717

5 Phoenix, AZ 1,445,632 1,467,519 1,495,880 1,521,182 1,547,729 1,575,039 1,602,042 1,626,078

6 Philadelphia, PA 1,526,006 1,539,649 1,551,944 1,558,109 1,564,042 1,570,507 1,574,765 1,580,863

7 San Antonio, TX 1,327,407 1,357,900 1,383,505 1,408,910 1,435,554 1,464,147 1,487,738 1,511,946

8 San Diego, CA 1,307,402 1,320,638 1,338,975 1,358,207 1,379,123 1,391,040 1,406,682 1,419,516

9 Dallas, TX 1,197,816 1,218,631 1,242,035 1,258,932 1,278,504 1,299,793 1,322,140 1,341,075

10 San Jose, CA 945,942 971,352 985,722 1,003,735 1,016,708 1,027,560 1,031,942 1,035,317

11 Austin, TX 790,390 828,700 854,350 874,910 900,621 919,974 938,200 950,715

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

15 Fastest‐Growing Large Cities and Towns between 2016 and 2017 (Populations of 50,000 or more in 2016)

Rank City StatePercent increase 2017 total population

1 Frisco TX 8.2 177,286

2 New Braunfels TX 8.0 79,152

3 Pflugerville TX 6.5 63,359

4 Ankeny IA 6.4 62,416

5 Buckeye AZ 5.9 68,453

6 Georgetown TX 5.4 70,685

7 Castle Rock town CO 5.1 62,276

8 Franklin TN 4.9 78,321

9 McKinney TX 4.8 181,330

10 Meridian ID 4.7 99,926

11 Flower Mound town TX 4.3 76,681

12 Bend OR 4.3 94,520

13 Cedar Park TX 4.2 75,704

14 Doral FL 4.2 61,130

15 Fort Myers FL 4.2 79,94

8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

CountyU.S. Rank Population Change

Population Change

Percent of Change from

Natural Increase

Percent Changefrom Domestic

Migration

Percent Change from

International Migration

Harris* 4 35,939 128.8% ‐126.0% 97.2%Tarrant 5 32,729 47.9% 29.0% 23.1%Bexar 7 30,831 47.8% 33.4% 18.8%Dallas 8 30,686 78.0% ‐25.5% 47.6%Denton 9 27,911 23.3% 67.0% 9.7%Collin 10 27,150 24.4% 56.5% 19.0%Fort Bend 14 22,870 29.4% 48.1% 22.6%Travis 15 22,116 47.9% 22.1% 30.0%Williamson 19 19,776 20.1% 73.5% 6.3%Montgomery 28 16,412 22.7% 68.5% 8.8%Hidalgo* 49 10,474 105.9% ‐34.5% 28.5%

*Hidalgo and Harris Counties had negative net migration (Harris ‐10,322 and Hidalgo ‐621).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2016‐2017

Dallas County

In‐Flows Net Migration

Dallas County 19,834 5,333

Denton County 5,752 ‐1,780

Harris County 3,403 1,279

Johnson County 3,208 ‐528

Parker County 2,620 ‐45

Collin County 2,612 ‐191

Brazos County 465 ‐1,192

Tarrant County

In‐Flows Net Migration

Tarrant County 14,501 ‐5,333

Collin County 13,637 ‐1,803

Denton County 9,576 ‐8,105

Harris County 3,771 ‐1,013

Ellis County 2,746 ‐1,201

Kaufman County 2,436 ‐1,829

Travis County 2,186 ‐1,226

Bexar County 2,070 113

County to County Migration Flows, Dallas and Tarrant Counties, 2010‐2014

10

Racial/Ethnic, Age, and Gender Diversity in Texas and DFW

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2017 Population Estimates 11

NH White, 53%

NH Black, 11%

NH Asian, 3%

NH Other, 1%

Hispanic, 32%

2000

NH White, 45%

NH Black, 12%

NH Asian, 4%

NH Other, 2%

Hispanic, 38%

2010

White, NH42%

Black, NH12%

Asian, NH5%

Two or More Races,

NH1%

Hispanic39%

2017

Hispanic29%

NH White46%

NH Black15%

NH Asian7%

NH Other3%

Race/Ethnicity Composition, Dallas Metro Area and DFW Counties, 2017

13

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH AsianNH Two or More Races

Parker 83.6% 1.4% 12.2% 0.6% 1.5%

Delta 81.0% 6.2% 7.6% 0.7% 2.7%

Wise 76.5% 1.4% 19.5% 0.5% 1.4%

Johnson 72.2% 3.2% 21.3% 0.8% 1.6%

Hunt 71.7% 7.9% 16.4% 1.4% 1.7%

Rockwall 71.2% 6.2% 17.7% 2.7% 1.7%

Kaufman 64.1% 11.1% 21.4% 1.2% 1.6%

Ellis 60.8% 10.3% 26.3% 0.7% 1.4%

Denton 59.3% 9.8% 19.4% 8.9% 2.1%

Collin 57.3% 9.7% 15.3% 14.9% 2.3%

Tarrant 46.8% 16.3% 28.9% 5.5% 1.9%

Dallas 29.2% 22.5% 40.2% 6.3% 1.4%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population EstimatesSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates

Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington Metro Area

Numeric Change by Race/Ethnicity, DFW Metro Area, 2010 to 2017

14Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

375,563 176,372 209,002 164,758

38.9%

18.3%

21.6%

17.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian

Numeric Change Percent of Total Population Change

Population Pyramid for White Non‐Hispanics in Texas, 2017

15

‐500000 ‐400000 ‐300000 ‐200000 ‐100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

White‐NH Male White‐NH Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

Population Pyramid for Hispanics in Texas, 2017

16

‐600000 ‐400000 ‐200000 0 200000 400000 600000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Hispanic Male Hispanic Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2017

17Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

‐1500000 ‐1000000 ‐500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Asian‐NH Male Black‐NH Male White‐NH Male Hispanic Male

Asian‐NH Female Black‐NH Female White‐NH Female Hispanic Female

18

Annual Shares of Recent Non‐Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005‐2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year PUMS

44.1%

50.6%

69.4%

35.8%

33.0%

17.3%

7.1%

7.3%

7.8%

13.1%

9.1%

5.5%

2015

2010

2005

Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other

Estimated number of international migrants to Texas

101,588

77,702

98,194

Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2017

19Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates

High School Degree and above

Bachelor’s Degree and above

83.6%

94.0%

66.2%

89.5% 88.4%

29.6%

38.6%

14.5%

24.2%

59.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total NHWhite

Hispanic Black Asian Total NHWhite

Hispanic Black Asian

Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio Texas

Educational attainment in the Dallas metro is higher or similar to that of the state with the exception of Hispanic educational attainment, where it is lower.

$59,206

$72,361

$46,855 $45,092

$84,100

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian


Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2017

20

Median household incomes in the Dallas metro tend to be higher than the state for all race/ethnic groups, but especially for Asians.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates

5.1%4.3%

5.3%8.2%

4.0%

14.7%

8.5%

20.7%19.0%

9.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Total NHWhite

Hispanic Black Asian Total NHWhite

Hispanic Black Asian


Unemployment and Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2017

21

The unemployment and poverty rates in the Dallas metro tend to be lower than the state rates for all race/ethnicity groups.


Poverty Rate

Unemployment Rate

Nativity by Select Characteristics, Texas, 2017

Foreign Born U.S. Born4,854,140 23,450,456

Percent of Texas Population 17% 83%

Naturalized 37.3% ‐‐

% Change, 2000‐2017 67.4% 30.6%

% Change, 1990‐2000 90.2% 16.1%

Hispanic or Latino 66.0% 33.9%

Black or African American 5.7% 13.4%

Asian 19.1% 1.8%

Under 5 0.9% 8.4%

5‐17 5.9% 21.6%

18‐64 81.5% 57.6%

65 and older 11.8% 12.3%

22

Nativity by Labor Force Characteristics, Texas, 2017

Foreign Born U.S. BornPopulation 16 plus 4,601,043 17,160,690

% in Civilian Labor Force 66.7% 63.2%

Civilian Labor Force 3,068,896 10,845,556

% Unemployed 4.1% 5.4%

Class of Worker

Private wage and salary workers 82.6% 79.6%

Government workers 7.4% 14.3%

Self‐employed workers 9.9% 5.9%

Unpaid family workers 0.2% 0.2%

23

Percent Foreign Born Workers by Occupation and Industry, Texas, 2017

% Foreign Born

% of all civilian workers 22.3%

Occupations

Natural Resources, Construction, Maintenance 39.5%

Service Occupations 29.5%

Production, Transportation, and Material Moving 29.2%

Management, Business, Science, and Arts 16.9%

Sales and Office occupations 13.9%

Industries

Construction 41.0%

Manufacturing 26.8%

Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services 24.9%

Agriculture 24.1%

Transportation and Warehousing and Utilities 22.3%

Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services

23.2%24

Population by Generation, DFW, Texas, 2016

26

DFW TexasSilent 316,519 1,452,333Baby Boomers 1,223,104 5,039,831Generation X 1,575,023 5,718,747Millennials 1,650,724 6,326,388Generation Z 1,703,917 6,536,287

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Generation Z Millennials Generation X Baby Boomers Silent

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2016 Population Estimates

Employment Status by Age, Texas, 2017

Labor Force Participation

Rate

Employment/Population

Ratio

Unemployment Rate

Population 16 years and over 64.3% 60.7% 5.1%

16 to 19 years 34.3% 27.7% 17.7%

20 to 24 years 72.9% 65.2% 8.9%

25 to 29 years 80.6% 75.4% 5.5%

30 to 34 years 81.0% 76.5% 4.7%

35 to 44 years 80.7% 77.2% 3.9%

45 to 54 years 79.8% 76.7% 3.8%

55 to 59 years 71.9% 69.2% 3.7%

60 to 64 years 57.4% 55.6% 3.2%

65 to 74 years 27.6% 26.6% 3.6%

75 years and over 7.2% 6.9% 3.3%


Labor Force Participation by Select Characteristics, Texas and U.S., 2000 to 2017

Percent of Married Families with Both Partners in Labor Force 49.8%

Percent of Children under 6 years with Both Parents in Labor Force 59.7%

Percent Employed with a Computer at home plus internet 92.2%

Percent Unemployed with a Computer at home plus internet 85.8%


Median Earnings for Full‐Time, Year‐Round Employees by Sex, Texas, 2017

Total Median Earnings $44,803

Male Median Earnings $49,414

Female Median Earnings $40,236

Pay Gap $0.81 to the dollar

NH White Women $0.76 to the dollar

Hispanic Women $0.47 to the dollar

Black Women $0.62 to the dollar

Asian Women $0.81 to the dollar


*pay gap derived using NH White male pay as reference group.

Gender Pay Gap, Texas and Big Four Metros, 2017

Pay Gap for Hispanic Women

Texas .60

Austin Metro .64

DFWMetro .59

Houston Metro .56

San Antonio Metro .74

31

Median Earnings, Male

MedianEarnings, Female

Pay Gap

Texas $49,414 $40,236 .81Austin Metro $55,162 $47,075 .85DFWMetro $51,498 $44,207 .86

Houston Metro $51,634 $42,274 .82San Antonio Metro $43,515 $37,535 .86


Texas Legislature Demographics, 2019

• Nearly 2 of every 3 Texas lawmakers are white.

• Less than ¼ of them are women.

32Source: Texas Tribune, https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2019/texas‐lawmakers‐legislature‐demographics/

Population Projections

Projected Population, 2010‐2050, Texas

34

31.2

40.5

54.4

47.3

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Millions

Zero Migration

0.5 Migration

1.0 Migration

2010‐2015 Migration

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections

Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050

35Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

13.5

6.0

20.2

5.8

1.80

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Millions

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other

Population Projections, DFW Metro Largest Counties, 2010‐2050

36Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

0.8

2.42.4

3.9

0.7

2.3

1.8

3.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Millions

Collin Dallas Denton Tarrant

6,366,542

9,264,580

13,173,646

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Population Projections, DFW Metro Smaller Counties, 2010‐2050

37Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Delta Ellis Hunt Johnson Kaufman Parker Rockwall Wise

Projected Numeric Change, DFW Metro, 2010 to 2030

38

469,852 643,594 1,051,087 590,671 142,834

16.2%

22.2%

36.3%

20.4%

4.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other

Numeric Change Percent of Total Population Change

Lila Valencia, Ph.D.(512) 936‐3542

[email protected]

demographics.texas.gov

@TexasDemography

39

demographic diversity in texas and the dfw metro area · 2 new braunfels tx 8.0 79,152 3...

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