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The Changing Workforce of Texas Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018 @TexasDemography

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Page 1: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

The Changing Workforce of Texas

Texas Municipal Retirement SystemLakeway, TX

November 8, 2018

@TexasDemography

Page 2: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Texas is experiencing significant growth.

Page 3: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Growing States, 2000-2017

3

2000Population

2010Population

2017 Population

NumericChange

2010-2017

PercentChange

2010-2017

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 325,719,178 16,961,073 5.49%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,304,596 3,158,496 12.56%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,536,653 2,282,135 6.13%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,984,400 2,179,806 11.59%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,429,379 740,689 7.65%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,273,419 737,698 7.74%

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,405,743 681,198 10.13%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,016,270 623,961 9.76%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

Page 4: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

CulbersonReeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Kenedy

Starr

Polk

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

Brazoria

Tyler

GrayOldham

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

Kimble

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Coke

Llano

Ector

Andrews

Milam

Travis

Knox

Falls

Ward

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Nueces

Taylor

Real

Bowie

Young

Lamar

Martin

Garza

DallasFisher

Moore

Kleberg

Cameron

Cooke

Hardin

Schleicher

Gillespie

Foard

Wood

Menard

La Salle

Rusk

LibertyLee

Mills

Smith

Burnet

Cottle

Zapata

Coryell

Matagorda

Brown

Motley

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

BaylorArcher

Scurry

Tom Green

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Brooks

Bailey

Deaf Smith

DeWitt

Lavaca

Donley

Hays

GoliadAtascosa

Denton

BosqueEl Paso

Fannin

Tarrant

Wharton

CraneConcho

Carson

Runnels

Fayette

Crosby

Borden

Haskell

Calhoun

Newton

Live Oak

Randall

ShelbySterling

Jefferson

Briscoe

McMullen

Parmer

Jim Hogg

Mitchell

Wilson

Victoria

Trinity

Roberts

PanolaHoward

Walker

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

HockleyDickens

Swisher

Gonzales

Winkler Anderson

Dawson

Willacy

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Harrison

Colorado

Eastland

Lubbock

Karnes

Red River

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Loving

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

Montague

Bandera

Cochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

FreestoneComanche

Glasscock

Johnson

Galveston

Henderson

Montgomery

Wichita

Brazos

Van Zandt

Chambers

Robertson

Waller

Sabine

Upshur

Hood

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

GuadalupeCaldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

WashingtonOrange

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

tl_2017_us_countyPOPEST2017

134 - 10,00010,001 - 50,00050,001 - 100,000100,001 - 500,000500,001 - 4,652,980

Page 5: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2017

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

91 counties lost population over the 7 year period.

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

CulbersonReeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Kenedy

Starr

Polk

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

Brazoria

Tyler

GrayOldham

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

Kimble

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Coke

Llano

Ector

Andrews

Milam

Travis

Knox

Falls

Ward

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Nueces

Taylor

Real

Bowie

Young

Lamar

Martin

Garza

DallasFisher

Moore

Kleberg

Cameron

Cooke

Hardin

Schleicher

Gillespie

Foard

Wood

Menard

La Salle

Rusk

LibertyLee

Mills

Smith

Burnet

Cottle

Zapata

Coryell

Matagorda

Brown

Motley

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

BaylorArcher

Scurry

Tom Green

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Brooks

Bailey

Deaf Smith

DeWitt

Lavaca

Donley

Hays

GoliadAtascosa

Denton

BosqueEl Paso

Fannin

Tarrant

Wharton

CraneConcho

Carson

Runnels

Fayette

Crosby

Borden

Haskell

Calhoun

Newton

Live Oak

Randall

ShelbySterling

Jefferson

Briscoe

McMullen

Parmer

Jim Hogg

Mitchell

Wilson

Victoria

Trinity

Roberts

PanolaHoward

Walker

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

HockleyDickens

Swisher

Gonzales

Winkler Anderson

Dawson

Willacy

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Harrison

Colorado

Eastland

Lubbock

Karnes

Red River

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Loving

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

Montague

Bandera

Cochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

FreestoneComanche

Glasscock

Johnson

Galveston

Henderson

Montgomery

Wichita

Brazos

Van Zandt

Chambers

Robertson

Waller

Sabine

Upshur

Hood

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

GuadalupeCaldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

WashingtonOrange

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

tl_2017_us_countyNumCh10-17

-2,139 - 01 - 1,0001,001 - 20,00020,001 - 100,000100,001 - 560,521

Page 6: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2017

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

CulbersonReeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Kenedy

Starr

Polk

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

Brazoria

Tyler

GrayOldham

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

La Salle

Rusk

Kimble

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Coke

Llano

Liberty

Ector

Andrews

Milam

Travis Lee

Knox

Mills

Smith

Falls

Ward

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Burnet

Cottle

Nueces

Taylor

Real

Coryell

Bowie

Motley

Young

Lamar

Martin

Garza

DallasFisher

Moore

Baylor

Kleberg

Archer

Scurry

Cameron

Cooke

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Hardin

Deaf Smith Donley

Goliad

Denton

Fannin

Schleicher

Gillespie

Shelby

Foard

Wood

Menard

Panola

Harrison

Zapata

Matagorda

Brown

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

Tom Green

Brooks

Bailey

DeWitt

Lavaca

Hays

Atascosa

BosqueEl Paso

Tarrant

Wharton

CraneConcho

Carson

Runnels

Fayette

Crosby

Borden

Haskell

Calhoun

Newton

Live Oak

Randall

Sterling

Jefferson

Briscoe

McMullen

Parmer

Jim Hogg

Mitchell

Wilson

Victoria

Trinity

Roberts

Howard

Walker

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

Hockley Dickens

Swisher

Gonzales

Winkler Anderson

Dawson

Willacy

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Colorado

Eastland

Lubbock

Karnes

Red River

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Loving

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

Montague

Bandera

Cochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

FreestoneComancheGlasscock

Johnson

Galveston

Henderson

Montgomery

Wichita

Brazos

Van Zandt

Chambers

Robertson

Waller

Sabine

Upshur

Hood

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Orange

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Franklin

Camp

Somervell

Rockwall

tl_2017_us_countyPerCh10-17

-33.5% - 0%0.1% - 6%6.1% - 12%12.1% - 24%24.1% - 63.4%

Page 7: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

7

Page 8: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

MigrationNatural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Page 9: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Estimates of percent components of population change, Texas, 2011-2017

53.2% 48.4% 51.6%45.2% 43.0% 47.1% 52.5%

17.6%17.8%

20.7%20.3% 22.1%

24.9%27.7%

29.3% 33.7%27.7%

34.5% 34.9%28.0%

19.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net DomesticMigration

NetInternationalMigration

Natural Increase

9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage population estimates

Page 10: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

CountyU.S. Rank

Population Change

Population Change

Percent of Change from

Natural Increase

Percent Changefrom Domestic

Migration

Percent Change from

International Migration

Harris* 4 35,939 128.8% -126.0% 97.2%

Tarrant 5 32,729 47.9% 29.0% 23.1%

Bexar 7 30,831 47.8% 33.4% 18.8%

Dallas 8 30,686 78.0% -25.5% 47.6%

Denton 9 27,911 23.3% 67.0% 9.7%

Collin 10 27,150 24.4% 56.5% 19.0%

Fort Bend 14 22,870 29.4% 48.1% 22.6%

Travis 15 22,116 47.9% 22.1% 30.0%

Williamson 19 19,776 20.1% 73.5% 6.3%

Montgomery 28 16,412 22.7% 68.5% 8.8%

Hidalgo* 49 10,474 105.9% -34.5% 28.5%

*Hidalgo and Harris Counties had negative net migration (Harris -10,322 and Hidalgo -621).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2016-2017

Page 11: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2016-2017

County U.S. Rank

2016-2017Percent

Population Change

Percent Change from

Domestic Migration

Percent Change from

InternationalMigration

Comal 2 5.1% 90.7% 1.9%Hays 4 5.0% 81.6% 2.8%Kendall 5 4.9% 96.3% 3.3%Kaufman 11 4.1% 83.0% 2.2%Rains 13 4.0% 103.1% 2.9%Williamson 16 3.7% 73.5% 6.3%Rockwall 22 3.6% 81.8% 2.4%Parker 26 3.6% 89.7% 1.3%Denton 32 3.5% 67.0% 9.7%Guadalupe 36 3.3% 81.4% 2.7%Ellis 44 3.1% 78.2% 3.0%Llano 45 3.1% 119.8% 0.5%Fort Bend 48 3.1% 48.1% 22.6%

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2017Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Page 12: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

The 15 Fastest-Growing Large Cities and Towns Between July 1, 2016, and July 1, 2017 (Populations of 50,000 or more in 2016)

Rank City State Percent increase

2017 total population

1 Frisco Texas 8.2 177,2862 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,1523 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,3594 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,4165 Buckeye Arizona 5.9 68,4536 Georgetown Texas 5.4 70,6857 Castle Rock town Colorado 5.1 62,2768 Franklin Tennessee 4.9 78,3219 McKinney Texas 4.8 181,33010 Meridian Idaho 4.7 99,92611 Flower Mound town Texas 4.3 76,68112 Bend Oregon 4.3 94,52013 Cedar Park Texas 4.2 75,70414 Doral Florida 4.2 61,13015 Fort Myers Florida 4.2 79,94

12Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Page 13: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

-3.4% -2.9% -2.9% -2.8% -2.5%

-0.3% -0.1%

4.5% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1%5.9%

7.1%

9.5%10.4%

13.2%

22.1%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Washington

Arkansas

Oklahoma

North Dakota

Colorado

Wisconsin

Rhode Island

Georgia

Maryland

Michigan

Pennsylvania

New Jerse

y

Missouri

Illinois

Louisiana

New York

California

Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015

Page 14: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Texas continues to diversify.

Page 15: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2017 Population Estimates 11

NH White, 53%

NH Black, 11%

NH Asian, 3%

NH Other, 1%

Hispanic, 32%

2000

NH White, 45%

NH Black, 12%

NH Asian, 4%

NH Other, 2%

Hispanic, 38%

2010

White, NH42%

Black, NH12%

Asian, NH5%

Two or More Races,

NH1%

Hispanic39%

2017

Page 16: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

16

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015

69.4%

66.8%

61.0%

57.0%

59.0%

50.6%

57.4%

50.9%

42.9%

48.6%

44.1%

17.3%

19.9%

22.4%

28.2%

26.8%

33.0%

25.5%

34.3%

40.4%

33.6%

35.8%

7.8%

5.7%

6.2%

7.8%

7.7%

7.3%

9.9%

7.1%

9.0%

8.3%

7.1%

5.5%

7.6%

10.4%

7.0%

6.5%

9.1%

7.2%

7.8%

7.8%

9.5%

13.1%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS

Page 17: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Population Pyramid for White Non-Hispanics in Texas, 2017

17

-500000 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

White-NH Male White-NH Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

Page 18: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

18

-600000 -400000 -200000 0 200000 400000 600000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Hispanic Male Hispanic Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

Population Pyramid for Hispanics in Texas, 2017

Page 19: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

19

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

-1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Asian-NH Male Black-NH Male White-NH Male Hispanic Male

Asian-NH Female Black-NH Female White-NH Female Hispanic Female

Page 20: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

The Texas Economy

Page 21: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona
Page 22: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

22

Page 23: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

23

Page 24: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

The Texas Workforce

Page 25: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Employment Status by Age, Texas, 2017

Labor Force Participation

Rate

Employment/Population

Ratio

Unemployment Rate

Population 16 years and over 64.3% 60.7% 5.1%

16 to 19 years 34.3% 27.7% 17.7%

20 to 24 years 72.9% 65.2% 8.9%

25 to 29 years 80.6% 75.4% 5.5%

30 to 34 years 81.0% 76.5% 4.7%

35 to 44 years 80.7% 77.2% 3.9%

45 to 54 years 79.8% 76.7% 3.8%

55 to 59 years 71.9% 69.2% 3.7%

60 to 64 years 57.4% 55.6% 3.2%

65 to 74 years 27.6% 26.6% 3.6%

75 years and over 7.2% 6.9% 3.3%

25Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Page 26: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Employment Status by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2017

Labor Force Participation

Rate

Employment/Population

Ratio

Unemployment Rate

Population 16 years and over 64.3% 60.7% 5.1%

NH White 62.6% 59.4% 4.3%

Hispanic 65.9% 62.2% 5.3%

Black 65.1% 59.3% 8.2%

Asian 66.4% 63.4% 4.0%

26Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

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Employment Status by Educational Attainment, Texas, 2017

Labor Force Participation

Rate

Employment/Population

Ratio

UnemploymentRate

Population 25 to 64 years 77.1% 73.6% 4.2%

Less than high school graduate 65.2% 61.5% 5.6%

High School graduate (includes

equivalency)

71.8% 68.1% 5.0%

Some college or associate’s degree 79.1% 75.1% 4.5%

Bachelor’s degree or higher 85.5% 82.7% 2.7%

27Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

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Median Earnings for Full-Time, Year-Round Employees by Sex, Texas, 2017

Total Median Earnings $44,803

Male Median Earnings $49,414

Female Median Earnings $40,236

Pay Gap $0.81 to the dollar

28Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

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Labor Force Participation by Select Characteristics, Texas

and U.S., 2000 to 2017

Percent of Married Families with Both Partners in Labor Force 49.8%

Percent of Children under 6 years with Both Parents in Labor Force 59.7%

Percent Employed with a Computer at home plus internet 92.2%

Percent Unemployed with a Computer at home plus internet 85.8%

29Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Page 30: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Class of Worker, Texas, 2017

EstimatePercent of

Civilian Labor Force

Percent of F-T, Y-R Civilian Labor

Force

Civilian Employed Population 16 years and older 13,201,891 100%

Federal Government 275,051 2.1%

State Government 594,313 4.5%

Local Government 818,656 6.2%

Full-time, Year-round Civilian EmployedPopulation 16 years and older 9,692,983 73.4% 100%

Federal Government 248,072 1.9% 2.6%

State Government 471,398 3.6% 4.9%

Local Government 652,507 4.9% 6.7%

30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

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Class of Worker by Sex, Texas, 2017

Estimate Percent Male Percent FemaleFull-time, year-round civilian employed population 16 years and over 9,692,983 58.1 41.9Private for-profit wage and salary workers: 7,290,126 61.2 38.8

Employee of private company workers 7,007,500 60.7 39.3Self-employed in own incorporated business workers 282,626 73.3 26.7Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers 508,516 37.5 62.5

Local government workers 652,507 43.8 56.2

State government workers 471,398 37.7 62.3

Federal government workers 248,072 62.4 37.6Self-employed in own not incorporated business workers and unpaid family workers 522,364 69.9 30.1

31Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

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U.S. Local Public Pensions

• Total Cash & Investments

= $732 Billion

• Annual Benefit Payments

= $52.7 Billion

• Total Beneficiaries

receiving periodic benefit

payments = 1,542,470

Average Annual Benefit

Payment = $34,165

Texas Local Public

Pensions

• Total Cash & Investments

= $33.3 Billion

• Annual Benefit Payments

= $2.2 Billion

• Total Beneficiaries

receiving periodic benefit

payments = 70,292

Average Annual Benefit

Payment = $31,512

Local Public Pension Totals, 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Annual Survey of Public Pensions

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33Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State & Local Government Snapshot, https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/state-local-snapshot.html

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Page 35: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Housing Affordability in Select Texas Metros, 2007-2017

35

Notes: Data are through fourth quarter 2017. The Housing Opportunity Index represents the share of homes sold in a given area that Would have been affordable to a family earning the local median income.Source: National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Austin

Dallas

Fort Worth

Houston

San Antonio

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36

Education in Texas

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Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2007 and 2017

37Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2007-2017. * Years significantly different p<.05

2007 2017Percent high school graduate or higher

79.1% 83.6% *

Percent bachelor's degree or higher

25.2% 29.6% *

15.5%

12.0%

30.1%

27.1%26.9%

28.9%

17.4%

19.7%

10.1%

12.3%

2007 2017

Less than High School

High School orEquivalent

Some College orAssociate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate or ProfessionalDegree

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Educational Attainment, Texas, 2007 and 2017

38

23.8%

31.0%

26.9%

31.6%

27.6% 29.0%

19.0%

27.0%25.2%

29.6%

2007 2017

Percent BA by Age Group

25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65 plus Total

33.3%

38.6%

18.0%

24.2%

10.7%14.5%

52.8%

59.2%

2007 2017

Percent BA by Race/Ethnicity

White, NH Black Hispanic AsianSource: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates, 2007, 2017

Page 39: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2007, 2017 and 2017-2017 Change

39Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2007, 2017

9.3%

4.3% 4.3%

7.8%

3.8%

12.6%

10.4%

4.9%5.5%

7.0%

3.4%

11.8%

1.0% 0.5%1.2%

-0.8% -0.4% -0.8%Managementoccupations

Business and financialoperations

occupations

Healthcarepractitioners and

technical occupations

Construction andextraction

occupations

Installation,maintenance, andrepair occupations

Production,transportation, and

material movingoccupations

2007 2017 Change

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Population Projections

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28.81

30.54

29.61

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

20102015

2020

Millions

Zero Net MigrationHalf 2000 -2010

2000 -20102010 -2015

Estimates

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2020

41Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections

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Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050

42Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections

1112

45

22

30

47

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ions

NH White .5 NH White Black .5 Black

Hispanic .5 Hispanic Other .5 Other

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Projected Labor Force by Sex, Texas, 2010-2050

43

18.6

25.7

10.6

14.7

8.1

11.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ions

Total .5 Total Male .5 Male Female .5 Female

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Projected Labor Force Population by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2050

44

5.35.6

1.92.4

9.8

14.1

1.7

3.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ions

NH White .5 NH White Black .5 Black

Hispanic .5 Hispanic Other .5 Other

Page 45: Texas Municipal Retirement System Lakeway, TX November 8, 2018€¦ · 2 New Braunfels Texas 8.0 79,152 3 Pflugerville Texas 6.5 63,359 4 Ankeny Iowa 6.4 62,416 5 Buckeye Arizona

45

Office: (512) [email protected]

Lila Valencia, Ph.D.

@TexasDemography