develop sustainable low-carbon society scenarios by ...passenger transport freight transport 15...
TRANSCRIPT
Develop Sustainable Low-Carbon Society
Scenarios by Simulation Models
– In the case of Vietnam and
its implementation to Asia –
Junichi Fujino, Yumiko Asayama (NIES) Nguyen Tung Lam (ISPONRE, Vietonam)
Nguyen Thai Hoa (Kyoto University) WGIA2012, 12 July 2012, Hanoi
Designed by Hajime Sakai
GIO + AIM =
MRV + NAMAs???
My hypothesis…
AIM is an abbreviation of “Asia-Pacific Integrated Model” to support design sustainable societies and suggest actions comprehensively and consistently in quantitative manner. AIM developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in collaboration with Kyoto University and several research institutes in the Asia-Pacific region since 1990. AIM has more than 20 simulation models such as top-down economy models, bottom-up technology models, sector-wise service demand and energy supply model, and environmental aspect models in global/national/sub-national scale.
LCS study by AIM team • 1990 start AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) project • 2000 provide IPCC/SRES A1B maker scenario • 2004.4-2009.3 “Japan LCS research project” coordinated
by AIM/NIES funded by MOEJ and provide 70% CO2 cut scenario by 2050
• 2006.2-2008.3 “Japan-UK joint LCS research project” submitted “call for action” to G8 Japan summit
• 2009.4-2014.3 “Low-Carbon Asia research project” coordinated by AIM/NIES funded by MOEJ
• 2010.4-2015.3 SATREPS “Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Region” especially focused on Iskandar and Malaysia funded by JST/JICA
Vietnam
Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY Kyoto University: Nguyen Thai Hoa, Kei Gomi, Yuzuru Matsuoka National Institute for Environmental Studies: Tomoko Hasegawa, Junichi Fujino, Mikiko Kainuma Institute of Strategy, Policy and Natural Resources: Nguyen Thi Thuy Duong, Nguyen Tung Lam, Nguyen Lanh, Nguyen Van Tai Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment: Huynh Thi Lan Huong, Tran Thuc Water Resources University: Nguyen Quang Kim Japan International Cooperation Agency: Hiroshi Tsujihara
Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Background Why we need a LCS? In conventional growth pathway, developed countries have been emitting a large amount of green house gases in the process of economic growth. To avoid it, a developing country like Vietnam should leap-frog this process and creates low-carbon society (LCS) directly. One of the strategic objectives of “National Target to Respond to Climate Change” is “take an opportunity to develop towards a low-carbon economy” and “ National Climate Change Strategy” is “consider low carbon economy as principles in achieving sustainable development; GHG emission reduction to become mandatory index in social and economic development” In order to contribute discussion on LCS, we created a national sustainable LCS scenario in Vietnam in 2030.
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DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Socio-economic part of ExSS
10
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Data collection (socio-economic) Data Source
Population Population Division - United Nations Population low variant, 2030 for Vietnam, General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2008)
Household Vietnam Population and Housing Census (2009).
IO table Input-output table 2005 (Trinh Bui, 2009)
Transport
JICA/MoT(2009): The comprehensive study on the sustainable development of transport system in Vietnam (VISTRANSS 2)
General Statistic Office of Vietnam (2009) Schipper L., A. T. Le, O. Hans., 2008. Measuring the invisible. Quantifying emissions reductions from transport solutions. Hanoi case study. EMBARQ – The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport and World Resources Institute. Walter, H. and R. Michael (1995). Motorization and non-motorized transport in Asia. Transport system evolution in China, Japan and Indonesia. Land Use Policy, Vol 13, No.1, pp. 69-84, 1996. 11
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
2030 BaU Assumptions Indicator Quantification (2030BaU scenario) Tendency to Population 104 million people Growth rate at 0.9 % per annum
Demographic composition
[Male] 0-14: 8%, 15-64: 35.9%, 65 and over: 5.8% [Female] 0-14: 7.7%, 15-64: 35.2%, 65 and over: 7.4%
Number of male births are higher than female births
Average number of persons per household
3.5 (4.2 in 2005) Slight decrease in average size of household
GDP 6.5% Average annual growth rate during the period 2005 - 2030
Industrial structure [Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry]: 17% (22% in 2005) [Industry, Construction]: 43% (41% in 2005) [Service]: 40% (37% in 2005)
Primary industry sectoral share has a decrease trend, whilst secondary and tertiary industry have an increasing trend.
Demand structure Contribution of export in GDP: 29% (29% in 2005)
Export maintains there share in GDP
Modal shift in transport Passenger transport: [Train] 0%, [Bus] 0.6%, [Waterway] 0.6%, [Car] 0.3%, [Motorbike] 8.3% [Walk & Bike] 90%, [Aviation] 0.1%
Increasing of public transport, keep people respond to walk and use bicycle
Freight transport: [Train] 2%, [Waterway] 27%, [Truck] 71%, [Aviation] 0%
Increasing of share of train and waterway freight transport 12
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Estimated socio-economic indicators
2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM 2030BaU/2005 2030CM/2005 Population (million people) 83.1 104.0 104.0 1.3 1.3
No. of households (million) 20.0 29.7 29.7 1.5 1.5
GDP (trillion VND) 818.5 3,963 3,963 4.8 4.8
Gross output (trillion VND) 1,934 9,750 9,750 5.0 5.0
Primary industry (trillion VND) 404 1,684 1,684 4.2 3.9
Secondary industry (trillion VND) 1,033 5,497 5,497 5.3 5.2
Tertiary industry (trillion VND) 497 2,569 2,569 5.2 5.2 Passenger transport demand (million people-km) 223,981 542,687 518,028 2.4 2.3
Freight transport demand (million ton-km) 38,856 235,212 235,124 6.1 6.1
13
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Projected industrial output
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2005 2030
Trill.
VND
Services Construction Capital goods Industrial materials Other consumer goods Food, beverage & tobaco manufactures Mining and quarrying Agriculture-Fishery-Forestry
14
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Projected transport demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2030BaU 2030CM
Billio
n pas
s-km
Domestic aviationWalk & bikeInland waterwayTrainBusCarMotorbike
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2030BaU 2030CM
Billio
n ton
.km
Domestic aviation
Inland waterway
Train
Truck
There is an increasing share of motorbike and domestic aviation in passenger transport in 2030
Freight transport volume increases proportionally with growth of secondary industries
Passenger transport Freight transport 15
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Projected final energy demand by sectors
3 14 74
2112
26
46
3710
62
53
2
10
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005 2030BaU 2030CM
Mtoe
Commercial
Industry
Residential
Freight transport
Passenger transport
16
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Projected CO2 emissions from energy sector
15
110
686
4128
39
257
185
10
47
23
11
67
38
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2030BaU 2030 CM
MtCO
2Commercial
Industry
Residential
Freight transport
Passenger transport
17
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Contribution of low carbon countermeasures
22%
16%
13%
28%
6%
16%
Center Power Supply Freight TransportPassenger Transport IndustryCommercial Residential
39
4
24
1
10
13
0.3
23
16
11
5
3
2
13
11
4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Energy efficiency and fuel shift
Modal shift
Energy efficient vehicle
Biofuel
Publilc transport
Energy efficient vehicle
Biofuel
Energy efficiency improvement
Fuel shift
Energy saving
Energy efficiency improvement
Fuel shift & Natural energy
Energy saving behavior
Energy efficiency improvement
Fuel shift & Natural energy
Energy saving behavior
Pow
erse
ctor
Frei
ght T
rans
port
Pass
enge
r Tra
nspo
rtIn
dust
ryC
omm
erci
alR
esid
entia
l
18
Unit: MtCO2
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
AFOLUB model AFOLUB model Activity data Emission/mitigation
• AFOLUB model • Bottom-up type model to determine combination and amounts of individual mitigation
countermeasures • Estimate GHG emissions and mitigations in AFOLU sectors • Analyze effect of policies such as carbon tax, energy tax, subsidy etc. • Time horizon: mid-term (typically until 2030)
• AGriculture Bottom-up module (AG/Bottom-up) • Illustrate behavior of agricultural producers and selection of mitigation countermeasures • Maximize producer’s profit
• The LULUCF/Bottom-up • Illustrate land use and land use change cohort • Maximize total accumulated mitigation in the future
• AG/Bottom-up • LULUCF/Bottom-up
19
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Input and output of AFOLUB model
List of CountermeasureCharacteristics of countermeasure- Cost- Reduction effect- Life time- Diffusion ratio- Energy consumption and recoveryScenario of;- Fertilizer input- Price of commodity and energy- Production technologies
- Feeding system of livestock - Manure management system- Share ratio of irrigation area
Policy;- GHG emission tax rate- Energy tax rate - Subsidy
Emission/mitigationTypes of countermeasures
AFOLUB model
Scenario of;- Crop production- Yield of crops and carcass
weight of animals- Number of livestock
animals- Land use, land use change
Exogenous variables
Endogenous variables Model
Allowable abatement cost for GHGemission mitigation
Source: Hasegawa and Matsuoka, submitted 20
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Data sources • Present & future Activity data
• Crops & Livestocks in 2005-2009: • Vietnam Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (SNC) • Statistical Yearbook (2002, 2007 and 2009) • Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2006 • FAOSTAT, 2012, download
• Landuse in 2000, 2005: • SNC • ResourceSTAT, FAOSTAT, 2011, download • Statistical Yearbook 2001(2002)
• Countermeasure data • Collected from domestic & international literatures • Countermeasures in LULUCF is referred to SCN
Cost Mitigation[USD/activity/yr]* [tCO2eq/activity/yr]*
3A1 Replacement of roughage with concentrates
RRC -23 0.45 Bates(1998a), Shibata et al.(2010), Graus et al.(2004)
High genetic merit HGM 0 0.32 Bates(1998a)3A2 Dome digester, cooking fuel and light CFL 44 0.62 USEPA(2006)
Daily spread of manure DSM 2.2 0.33 Bates(1998a)3C7 Midseason drainage MD 0 0.89 USEPA(2006)
Fall incorporation of rice straw FIR 0 0.68 USEPA(2006)Replace Urea with Ammonium RAS 20 0.24 USEPA(2006), Graus et al. (2004)
3C4~3C6 High efficiency fertilizer application HEF 2.2 0.65 USEPA(2006), Hendriks et al. (1998), Amann et al. (2005)
Slow-release fertilizer application SRF 2150 0.76 USEPA(2006), Akiyama et al.(2010)Tillage and residue management TRM 5 0.08 IPCC(2007), Smith et al.(2007)
* Activity is area of cropland for crop cultivation and animal numbers for livestocks.
Code
Manure management
Rice cultivations
Managed soils
Emission sources CountermeasuresCode
Enteric fermentation
Reference
Countermeasures in Agricultural sector
21
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Comparison of total GHG emissions in BaU in AFOLU sectors
SCN,2000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
Emission and removals fromsoils 28 20 18 19 17 15 14
Emission from agriculture 63 62 65 72 74 78 85Forest and grassland
conversion 41 42 35 31 29 27 23
Changes in forest and otherwoody biomass stocks -50 -50 -48 -47 -46 -45 -43
TOTAL 82 74 70 75 74 76 79
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
GHG
emiss
ion [M
tCO 2]
22
SNC
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
GHG emissions/mitigations in Vietnam in 2030
Sector
GHG emissions (MtCO2eq)
GHG emissions reduction (MtCO2eq) 2030BaU 2030CM
AFOLU sectors 79 37 42 Agriculture 85 64 21 LULUCF -6 -27 21 Energy sectors 522 342 180 Residential sector 110 68 42 Commercial sector 41 28 13 Insudtry 257 185 71 Transport 114 61 53 Total 601 379 222
151
601
379
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM
GH
Gs
emis
sion
s/re
duc
tion
s (M
tCO
2)
GHG Emission
Total emission reduction 222 Mt-CO2eq
36% reduction
4 times
LULUCF21 MtCO2
Agriculture21 MtCO2
Residential28 MtCO2
Commercial10 MtCO2
Industry50 MtCO2
Passenger transport23 MtCO2
Freight transport29 MtCO2
Power Supply39 MtCO2
23 In 2030BaU scenario, GHG emissions were four folds from 2005 from 151 MtCO2 to 601 MtCO2
In 2030CM scenario, GHG emission was reduced 36% from 2030BaU.
4times
36% cut
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Projected per capita GHG emissions and emission intensity
0.12
0.18
0.15
0.10
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM
tCO 2
/trill-
VND
0.7
1.8
5.8
3.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2000 (SNC) 2005 2030BaU 2030 CM
t-CO 2
/capit
a
Per capita GHG emissions Emission intensity
24
• Emission intensity was reduced 20%
20% cut
DEVELOPING VIETNAM LOW CARBON SOCIETY, Low Carbon Society Study Workshop 31st May 2012, Hanoi, Vietnam
Malaysia
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Chau Loon Wai
Ho Chin Siong
IRDA HIGH-LEVEL LCS MEETING
IM LCS Actions 10 July 2012
IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
01 Introduction: Background of Project Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions
Study Area: Iskandar Malaysia Objective: i. To formulate key policies and strategies to ensure continuous strong growth and development of
Iskandar Malaysia while mitigating the economic region’s carbon emission
ii. To transforming Iskandar Malaysia into a sustainable, low carbon metropolis by adopting green growth strategies/roadmap
iii. To respond to the nation’s aspiration for ensuring climate-resilient development for sustainability. Target Year: 2025 (2005 – 2025)
(Source: Iskandar Regional Development Authority)
IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
Research Team: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University (KU), Okayama University (OU), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Joint Coordinating Committee: Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA), Federal Department of Town and Country Planning (JPBD), Malaysia Green Technology Corporation (MGTC) Sponsorship: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) , Japan Science and Technology (JST) Period: 2011 - 2016 Research Output: i. Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is appropriate for Malaysia is developed.
ii. LCS scenarios are created and utilised for policy development in IM.
iii. Co-benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling-based society is quantified in IM
iv. Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and
Asian countries is consolidated, and a network for LCS in Asia is established
01 Introduction: Background of Project Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions
IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
30
LCS scenario study using ExSS
Wage Income
Export by goods
Government expenditure
Investment
Import ratio
Input coefficient matrix
Labor productivity Labor participation ratio
Household size
Consumption pattern
Demographic composition Taxation and
social security
Floor area per output
Freight generation per output
Transport distance
Modal share
Trip per person
Trip distance
Modal share
Energy service demand per driving force
Fuel share Energy efficiency
CO2 emission factor
IO analysis
Output by industry
Consumption
Labor demand Population
Number of household
Output of commercial
industry
Commercial building floor
area
Freight transport demand
Passenger transport demand
Population
Energy demand
CO2 emission
Output of manufacturing
industry
Carbon sink
Methodology developed by Shimada et.al (2006), Gomi et. Al (2007) IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
Potential Mitigation in IM
31
12552
45483
19162
4463
10831
777 3510
5521
623
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM
GH
G e
mis
sion
s/re
duct
ions
(kt-C
O2)
Transport demand management
Fuel shifting
Efficiency improvement (buildings)
Efficiency improvement (transport)
Efficiency improvement (industry)
Efficiency improvement (powersector)
GHG emissionsE
mis
sion
Red
uctio
ns
57% 262%
52%
IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions 02 LCS Actions for IM: Where We Are Now
New Action Names Themes 1 Integrated Green Transportation
GREEN ECONOMY 2 Green Industries 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance 4 Green Buildings and Construction 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy
6 Low Carbon Lifestyle GREEN COMMUNITY
7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building
8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City
GREEN ENVIRONMENT
9 Smart Growth 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure
11 Sustainable Waste Management
12 Clean Air Environment
Since 06 July 2012…
IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
Action 6: Green and Blue Network/Infrastructure
1. Maintaining regional carbon sink2. Cooling effects of forests
6.1Regional Green
Corridor Network
Acquisition of land for forest connections
1. Identify potential
linking corridors between existing
forested areas for future
land acquisition
Protect existing forests
1. Gradually gazette
presently ungazettedprimary & secondary forests as protected
forests
6.2Conservation of
mangrove forests
Reinforce protection of
existing mangrove
areas
1. Gazette all mangrove areas as
protected forests
2. Ongoing mangrove
species audit 3. Strict
enforcement against illegal
mangrove clearing
Mangrove area
regeneration
1. Involving students and
schools in mangrove
trees planting2. Corporate
sectors adoption of mangrove
regeneration projects
6.3Promote urban forests (urban recreation and
green lungs)
Reintroduce endemic
forest species into existing urban parks
1. Involving students and
schools in forest tree
planting
Create new urban parks
1. Identify potential plots for
urban parks (unused
government land)
2. Introduce endemic
forest species in new urban
parks3. Create
linear urban
6.4New development to retain existing
vegetation
Enforcement of ACT 172 (Part VA:
Trees Preservation
Order)
1. Encourage reporting of illegal tree
felling 2. Carry out municipal
tree surveys for existing
green areas in IM
R
1
2
a
3
IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
Green-focused Agenda
Env’l Planning & Mngt
Social & Cultural
Dev
Integrated Transport
SWM
Land Use Planning
RE & Resources
Economic Dev
Com & Industry Planning
& Dev
Reuse Recycle Reduce
Compost
Talent Workforce;
Low carbon lifestyle
Modes Infrastructure
Corridors Movements
Value-added
products & services
FIT EE blgs &
areas Rainwater harvesting
CDP Fed Policy
NPP IRDA’s BPs
LCS
Implement Comply . Enforce Monitor . Review
Green Economy
UD Phased Dev & DC
DPs
Decarbonising development/ Development
Process
TODs
IM LCS Actions, 10 July 2012 at IRDA, Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
Strong Sustainable Metropolis Of International Standing
Indonesia
Preliminary Quantification of scenarios by
Extended Snapshot Tool for Low Carbon Society in Indonesia
Retno Gumilang Bandon Institute of Technology, Indonesia
Yuzuru Matsuoka, Ryohei Osawa, Kei Gomi Kyoto University, Japan
“Low Emission Development Scenarios (LEDs) of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise”
2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
36
• This presentation shows a preliminary result of Indonesia LCS scenario in energy sector in 2020.
• ExSS (Extended Snapshot Tool) was used as a main tool of quantification of the scenarios.
• Objective of this scenario study is to provide useful information for the discussion of low-carbon development of Indonesia by assessing possible emission reduction by mitigation options in 2020.
• Future assumptions are mainly referred to Indonesia Second National Communication, Chapter V, Measures to Mitigate Climate Change.
• The scenarios were prepared by Bandon Institute of Technology and Kyoto University with support of JICA Indonesia and DNPI, the Government of Indonesia.
37 “LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
Framework of the scenarios • Scope
– Energy demand and supply sectors – CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion
• Base year: 2005 • Target year: 2020 • Two scenarios
– 2020 Baseline – 2020 CM
• CM scenario achieves -26% from baseline
38 “LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
Scenarios in 2020 • Baseline scenario: Projection of GHG emission
under expected socio-economic development in Indonesia without additional countermeasures to reduce GHG emission from energy.
• CM scenario: Projection of GHG emission with mitigation options (low-carbon counter measures) which achieve the official mitigation target of Indonesia in 2020, -26% from the Baseline.
39 “LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
Model structure of ExSS
40
Export by goods
Government expenditure
Investment
Import rate
Input coefficient matrix
Household size
Floor area per output Freight generation per
output Transport distance
Modal share
Trip per person
Trip distance
Modal share
Energy service demand per driving force
Fuel share
Energy efficiency
CO2 emission factor
IO analysis
Output by industry
Population
Number of household
Output of commercial industry
Commercial building floor
area
Freight transport demand
Passenger transport demand
Population
Energy service demand
Output of manufacturing
industry
Exogenous variables Parameters
Endogenous variables
Final energy demand
Energy demand (DPG)
Central power generation (CPG)
Energy demand (CPG)
Primary energy supply
Dispersed power generation (DPG)
CO2 emssions
Energy efficiency DPG
Energy efficiency (CPG)
Fuel share (CPG)
Transmission loss (CPG)
Own use (CPG)
Energy end-use device share
Energy end-use device energy efficiency
Carbon sink
Private consumption
“LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
Collection of Information in 2005 Category Data Information source
Demography Population and number of household
Indonesian population census, BPS-Indonesia
Economy Input-output table Indonesian Input-Output table, BPS-Indonesia
Transport Passegenr transport volume Transportation statistics, Ministry of transportation
Freight transport volume AIM database
Energy Energy demand and supply National energy balance, Pusdatin-MEMR
Energy demand by industry AIM datable 41
“LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
CO2 Emission
42
Difference of CO2 emissions shown in NC2 and this study in 2005 is considered to be caused by difference of detailed energy consumption and/or emission factor of the fuels.
69
326
26
290
138
295
64
95
16
36
30
47
339
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2005NC2
2005 2020Baseline
MtC
O2
TotalEnergy Industries*Freight TransportPassenger TransportManufacturingCommercialHousehold
344 339
1047
“LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
CO2 Emission
43
69
317 237
26
280
187
138
293
238
64
95
76
16
36
35
30
47
33
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2020Baseline
2020CM
MtC
O2
Energy Industries*
Freight Transport
Passenger Transport
Manufacturing
Commercial
Household
-26.0%
1047
343
771
* Energy Industries include oil and gas refinery, gas flaring and LNG industries. Emission from power generation is allocated to final demand sectors.
“LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
Contribution of measures
44
EEI : Energy Efficiency Improvement EE: Energy efficient CCS : Carbon Capture & Storage LC : Low Carbon
31
4.2
34
14
2.5
12
34
0
4.7
16
27
40
42
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Include the non-selected LC energy system
Increase the share of the selected LC energy system
Increase the use of efficient technology in power…
Develop technology for natural gas power…
CCS technology application for large coal power…
Gas flaring and venting reduction
Increase biofuel development efforts for personal…
Increase the use of new energy in transportation
Promote mass rapid transport
Process improvement in Industry Sector
EEI in Residetial Sector
EEI in Commercial Sector
MtCO2
“LEDs of Energy Sector: Preliminary Result of Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (AIM) exercise” 2012/June/6th, DNPI, Jakarta
Japan
45
Japan’s targets in the contexts of climate change
GHG emissions: -6% by 1990 compared to the 1990 level the Kyoto Protocol -25% by 2020 compared to the 1990 level -80% by 2050 compared to the 1990 level the United Nations Summit on Climate Change
46
48
Vision A Vision B
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle
Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally
Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth
As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but
likely future societies
Akemi Imagawa
49
17
10
23
9
3 43 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2050A 2050B
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M
toe)
Change of the numberof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of energydemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption
Gas consumption
Oil consumption
Energy consumption in2000
Residential sector Energy demand reduction potential: 50%
Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power
Energy Efficiency
Insulation system
[Technology]
[Society / Economy]
[People]
50
Industry Commercial Residential Transport
Greenhouse Gases Energy Supply
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
50
Agriculture
Volume of greenhouse gas emissions (100 million tons of CO2 in 2007)
Local development (Rural communities)
Daily life
CO2 originating from power generation
Before shift
CO2 originating from power generation
After shift Manufacturing Industry + industry processes + F gases
Residences and buildings
Homes + buildings Railways / marine / air
Transportation
Forest sinks, etc.
Automobiles
Energy supply
(indirect emissions)
(direct emissions)
Towards Low Carbon, Green Economy
Energy Saving, Renewables Reduce GHG by 80% through 40:50 & 20:20
40:50 by 2050 Energy Saving for 40% reduction of energy demand Renewables Constitute 50% Energy.
20:20 by 2030
2050
2030年
2012年 present
Energy Demand
Saving Energy
Renewables
20%
ー20%
ー40%
50%
CO212Gt
9Gt
2.4Gt
Energy Saving for 20% reduction of energy demand Renewables Constitute 20% Energy.
Proposed in June 2012 by Central Council of Environment, as alternatives of low carbon policy after Fukushima
[業務]高効率空調
[運輸]次世代自動車(旅客)
[家庭]HEMS
[家庭]高効率照明
[業務]高効率照明
[業務]高効率給湯
[業務]BEMS
[家庭]高効率家電
[産業]高性能ボイラ
[業務]高効率動力等
[業務]断熱材
[産業]高性能工業炉
[家庭]高効率空調
[産業]産業用HP
[運輸]自動車燃費改善
[電力]バイオマス・廃棄物発電
[産業]省エネ・エネ回収設備
[電力]地熱発電
[産業]革新的プロセス
[電力]風力発電
[産業]産業ガス転換
[産業]発電設備高効率化
[家庭]太陽光発電
[業務]太陽光発電
[運輸]次世代自動車(貨物)
[家庭]高効率給湯
[家庭]省エネ住宅
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
-20,000
-40,000
0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 320,000
[電力]中小水力
[産業]代替エネルギー
削減費
用(
円/tC
O2)
削減量(1000tCO2) 52
各主体に任せては対策技術の導入は進まない。主観的な選択が外部費用や社会費用も加味して変容するような施策の後押しが必要。
産業部門・投資回収年数 12~15年 家庭部門・投資回収年数 8年(*1) 業務部門・投資回収年数 8年(*2) 運輸部門・投資回収年数 8年 再エネ発電・投資回収年数 12年
産業部門・投資回収年数 3~9年 家庭部門・投資回収年数 3年 業務部門・投資回収年数 3年 運輸部門・投資回収年数 5年 再エネ発電・投資回収年数 9年
参考 ・事務所用建物 22~50年 ・鉄鋼業用設備 5~14年 ・家庭用冷暖房機器 6年 ・建物附属 冷房・暖房設備 13~15年 ・自動車 3~5年 ・汽力発電設備 15年 ・その他発電設備17年
*1 住宅は17年,*2 建築物は15年
This result was reported at national committee on mid-long term GHG mitigation roadmap on 21st Dec, 2010
The result by AIM/Enduse[Japan]
Mitigation cost curve in Japan to achieve 25% GHG emissions reductions
by 2020 compared with 1990 level
53
• As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 2030 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced.
<Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense>
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Energy saving investment through
2020
Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment = approx. 50 trillion yen (25% reduction)
In the case of device with 10 year lifespan
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment = approx. 49 trillion yen (25% reduction)
- 36 - 43 - 50
- 35 - 42 - 49
58 78
96
- 100
- 50
0
50
100
150
25% reduction
Additional investment (’11 – ’20 total)
Energy reduction expense (’11 – ’20 total) Energy reduction expense (’21 – ’30 total)
Relationship between low-carbon investment and energy reduction expense
20% reduction
15% reduction
Cos
t (Tr
illion
Yen
)
0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.5 0.8
1.1
0.6
1.0 1.1
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.5
5.8
7.8
9.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
その他
電力系統
その他新エネ発電
太陽光発電
自動車
業務用建築物・機器
家電製品
家庭用給湯器
住宅
産業
Japan needs to invest on average 6 to 10 trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a ▲15% to ▲25% by 2020. If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty in implementing the necessary countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need to create new markets on par with this spending.
[Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target] A
dditi
onal
Inve
stm
ent A
mou
nt (T
rillio
n Ye
n / Y
ear)
・Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture low-carbon products. ・Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation.
Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee
Need to spend between 6 and 10 trillion yen per annum across all sectors of society
Create Green Markets Grow Green Markets
15% Reduction
Other
Electric Power Systems Other New Energy Generation PV Automobiles Commercial Buildings / Equipment Home Electronics Residential Water Heaters Housing
Industrial
20% Reduction
25% Reduction
Huge green business opportunity accompanied by transition to low carbon society
1-2% of GDP
54
Asia
55
Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japan (GERF, S-6) and NIES
GHG
emiss
ions
per
cap
ita High
Carbon Locked in Society
Low Carbon Locked in Society
Development of Asia LCS Scenarios
Policy Packages for Asia LCS
Low Carbon Society Backcasting
Leapfrog-Development
How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?
High Carbon Locked-in type Development
Climate catastrophe: Significant Damage to Economy and Eco- System
Time
(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS (2) Quantifying future LCS visions (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting
Collaborating with Asian colleagues
57
Research members
Application and development to actual LCS processes
Development and maintenance of study tools/models
Each country’s domestic/ local research institute
Policy makers
Central/ regional
government managers
NGOs
Proposal/ collaborative activity on LCS scenario and roadmap making
Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world
Cambodian low-carbon development plan scoping-meeting
DATUM: KL Kuala Lumpur Architecture Festival 2011
Malaysian Low Carbon Cities
3 Establishing Low Carbon Society Scenario On Going Low Carbon Society Research Project at Asia
(Source: National Institute of Environment Studies, Japan)
City and Region
National
Bundit LIMMEECHOKCHAI
Thailand
Jiang KEJUN China
Ho Chin SIONG
Malaysia
Sirintornthep TOWPRAYOON
Thailand
Hak MAO Cambodia
Yutaka MATSUZAWA
Japan
Rizaldi BOER Indonesia
Mikiko Kainuma
Japan
Mohamad Bin SA’ELAL Malaysia
LoCARNet: Low Carbon Asia research Network Research Institutions/ researchers’ network
dedicating directly in LCS policy making process
GHG
emiss
ions
per
cap
ita
Low Carbon World
Developed Countries Energy-Intensive
Lock-ins in Development
Damaging the Economy and Natural System Developing
Countries
Leapfrog-development
59
Launching the “Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)”
as a central core for providing knowledge
• LCS-RNet/IGES/NIES has been conducting workshops that promote dialogues between policy-makers and researchers in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia, as well as networking among researchers in this region, to encourage low-carbon growth in Asia.
• During the course of these workshops, the growing importance of research society for low-carbon growth in Asia was strongly recognized.
• Japan proposed the establishment of “Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)” at ASEAN+3 EMM held in October 2011 in Phnom Penh.
• The launch of the LoCARNet was declared by Minister of Environment at the “East Asia Low Carbon Growth Partnership Dialogue” held in April 2012 in Japan as an element of East Asia Knowledge Sharing Platform for Low Carbon Growth
• Organization in process now
60
Why we need network?
• Urgent needs of science-based climate policy
• Necessity of integration of knowledge ⇒organization of research community • Communication between research and policy ⇒Dialogue and participation
• Specific and common research fields in the region ⇒S-S co-operation
• Still, lack of local capacity and ownership of knowledge
Fukushima
62
63
Disaster Wind
http://energy.gov/news/documents/050611__Joint_DOE_GoJ_AMS_Data_v3.pptx 63
Blessing Wind 64
What I have learned from 311
• Fukushima/Tohoku: – Always behind from so-called “development” send human resources, food, energy to Tokyo – Enrichment of humanity/nature, but…
• Huge challenges on local management – Importance of mayor’s leadership at urgency – Lack of “City Continuity Plan” – Lack of self-independent policy making capacity
and financing mechanism (too much subsidized…)
Towards “Future City” => to be self-sufficient city
Respond to “Inevitable” necessity 1) Setting goals Develop urban system design based on locality such as history, culture and environment 2) Roadmaps Apply the latest knowledge + Create open space with local consultant and global pro bono support 3) Ownership Local leaders’ initiative + local capacity development
=> And to be inspiring city
GIO + AIM =
MRV + NAMAs!!!
Yes!
Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia comes from design and
co-working…
Let’s work together!
Fukushima Conference 2012 will be held on 10th(Sat) and 11th(Sun) November
in Fukushima