Developing a Cold Temperature Risk Assessment

Kristen Gore, Adrienne Wootten, and Ryan Boyles

Carolinas and Virginia Climate ConferenceOctober 20, 2009

Wilmington, NC

Motivation

• Spring freezes can potentially eliminate an entire year’s worth of crops– Severe damage can have impacts for several

years to fruit crops

• Some crops are more vulnerable then others

• Risk of freeze damage depends on – Plant develop prior to freeze– Timing, duration of freeze

The NC Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Estimated Crop Losses to a total of $112 million dollars in North Carolina

Methods

• The Probability of a freeze is determined using– Station– Time Span (at least 30yrs)– Date of Interest– Temperature Threshold (depends on the

crop)

Statistical Information

• Probability of the Low Temperature Falling below the threshold for a given date

• Low Temperature Frequency Distribution• Climatological Probability Trend• Yearly Growing Degree Day (GDD) Trend• Climatological GDD Trend

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• Plot 2

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• Plot 3

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• Plot 4

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• Plot 5

In the Future

• Finish Development• Develop map-based risk products

– Location, crop specific• Look at risk as influenced by ENSO,

Arctic Oscillation