dgvt meeting – brdo 1-4 march 2008 new insight into future skill needs in europe aviana bulgarelli...

1-4 March 2008

DGVT meeting – Brdo

New insight into future skill needs in Europe

Aviana Bulgarelli and Alena ZukersteinovaCedefop

1-4 March 2008


Why skills needs analyses

• to fill existing information deficits to inform actors on future labour market needs for their decision-making

• to support evidence-based policy-makingin LLL, employment and social policy

1-4 March 2008


Why a European approach

Education and skills - key driver for European growth, competitiveness and jobs

need to know which occupations and skills will be requirededucation and training will develop knowledge and skills,

promote innovation, fill potential gaps, support growth and restructuring

Approaches to anticipate skills exist in several Member States

BUT: not yet well established at

European level

1-4 March 2008


Cedefop’s pro-active approach

• Consistent and comprehensive projections of skill needs across Europe

• Unique at European level

• European „team work“

launch and coordination of Skillsnet

towards a European system for early identification of skill needs

1-4 March 2008


• In which sectors will employment be growing or declining?

• Which occupations will be in demand?

• For which qualifications will demand increase or decrease?

Cedefop presents the first European forecast on occupational skill needs …… to answer the following questions

1-4 March 2008


European skills forecasting

– comparable information Europe-wide– feasible & cost-effective

First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs)

Second stage: supply side (available skills – people) and identification of possible imbalances

Next stages: further improvement of methods and data bases; additional research; joint European approach

1-4 March 2008


Modular approach to skill needs forecasting Overview of the Framework

Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios

Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation

Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification

Module 4: Replacement demand

1-4 March 2008


Future trends at a pan-European level (EU-25+)

• by sector (up to 41 industries)• by occupation (up to 27 occupations)• by qualification (3 broad levels)• plus replacement demands

EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future trends by sector (EU-25+) 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Millions

Primary sector & utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Business & other services

Non-marketed services

Distribution and transport

Forecast

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future sectoralchange and structure(EU-25+)

3.2

8.9

3.5

0.4

-0.5

-2.3

13.3

5.1

11.6

5.9

1.4

-2.9

-3.1

17.9

-5 0 5 10 15 20

Non-marketed services

Business and other services

Distribution and transport

Construction

Manufacturing

Primary sector and utilities

All industries

million jobs

1996-2006

2006-2015

65.570.6 73.4

26.723.8 22.4

7.8 5.6 4.2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2006 2015

Primary sectorand utilities

Manufacturing

Services

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future occupationalchange(EU-25+) 3.5

0.5

-1.4

-1.7

2.5

-1.3

4.7

3.8

2.7

18

6

0

-2

-2

4

-1

6

3

3

13.3

-5 0 5 10 15 20

All occupations

Elementary occupations

Plant and machine operators and assemblers

Craft and related trades workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Service workers and shop and market sales workers

Clerks

Technicians and associate professionals

Professionals

Legislators, senior officials and managers

1996-2006

2006-2015

million jobs

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future occupationalstructure(EU-25+)

8.6 10.9 11.8

29.9 25.6 22.9

26.025.1 24.1

34.9 37.8 40.6

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2006 2015

High-skilled non-manual occupations

Low-skilled non-manual occupations

Skilled manualoccupations

Elementaryoccupations

1-4 March 2008


Replacement

demand (EU-25+)

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Legislators, senior officials and managers

Professionals

Technicians and associate professionals

Clerks

Service workers, shop/market sales workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Craft and related trades workers

Plant and machine operators and assemblers


Expansiondemand

Replacementdemand

Totalrequirements

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future qualificationtrends(EU-25+)

0

50

100

150

200

250

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Million jobs

High qualification

Medium qualification

Low qualification

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future qualificationstructure(EU-25+) 32.9

26.220.8

46.248.6

49.9

20.925.3 29.3

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2006 2015

High qualification


Low qualification

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future qualification structure (Slovenia)

23.9%10.5%

60.5%

60.6%59.2%

15.6%24.1% 30.3%

15.4%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2006 2015

High qualification


Low qualification

1-4 March 2008


Past and likely future qualificationchange(EU-25+)

9.5

18

-8

13

13

12.4

13.3

-8.6

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

All qualifications

Low qualification


High qualification

1996-2006

2006-2015

million jobs

1-4 March 2008


Qualification requirements increase in all occupations – also in elementary jobs

8.3

2.4

0.8

0.9

3.3

1.1

1.5

3.6

-0.4

-2.3

-1.0

-4.8

-5 0 5 10

High-skilled non-manualoccupations

Low-skilled non-manualoccupations

Skilled manualoccupations


High qualification


Low qualification

Change 2006 - 2015

million jobs

1-4 March 2008


Key similarities and differences across countries• Many common trends:

– sectors, occupations, replacement needs, qualifications

• Some differences:– stage of economic development, different

industrial & occupational structures

► process of convergence

1-4 March 2008


Key findings

Evolutionary structural change towards service sectors and knowledge-intensive jobs

over 13 million additional jobs by 2015– Almost 16 million new jobs in service sector– Loss of over 2 million jobs in the primary

sector and 0,5 million in manufacturing

1-4 March 2008


Demand for skilled occupations

today 80 out of 210 million people are employed in high skilled non manual jobs. Expected to increase in next decade

jobs requiring generic clerical skills, crafts and agricultural occupations will decline

increases expected in elementary occupations (construction, services)

1-4 March 2008


Qualification needs by 2015

job gains requiring highly (12,5 million) and medium qualified workers (9,5 million), in particular vocational qualifications

job losses for low qualified workers (8,5 million), even in elementary occupations

in 2015, 30% of jobs will need high qualifications, 50% medium. Low qualifications will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20%

1-4 March 2008


Results lead to a knowledge and competence based European model that combines needs formedium and high qualifications and

continuing learning and up-skilling in all jobs

workers in elementary occupations but with growing qualifications

1-4 March 2008


Future prioritiesContinuing dialogue: with country experts

and stakeholders

Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data

Further refinement: the models/framework

Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level

1-4 March 2008


Contact details for further information:

Alena [email protected]

Torsten [email protected]

Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.eu

Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet

dgvt meeting – brdo 1-4 march 2008 new insight into future skill needs in europe aviana bulgarelli...

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