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COMMODITY NEWSBRIEFS: 28 AUGUST 2015 Please note that these articles are available in electronic format and can be requested and delivered via e-Mail.

(http://intra.spoornet.co.za) Natasha.Havenga@transnet.net

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AUTOMOTIVE VWSA TO INVEST R4.5BN ON EXPANDED OFFERING, NEW MODELS BY 2017 (Engineering News, 28/7/2015) Volkswagen South Africa (VWSA) has announced plans to invest over R4.5-billion in its South African operations over the next two years, setting the stage for the country’s largest passenger vehicle provider to expand its local offering and introduce new models to its local manufacturing line. The investment would include over R3-billion in production facilities and “quality”, around R1.5-billion in local supplier capacity and a further estimated R22-million for the development and training of employees. VWSA MD Thomas Schaefer told a media briefing on Thursday, “South Africa is not a logical production location for the motor industry, as only 0.6% of the world's vehicle production is situated here. However, owing to the strategic location and the potential of Africa as a future market for exports, as well as the security that the [Department of Trade and Industry’s (DTI’s)] Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP) provides for investors, ongoing investment in our vehicle manufacturing base makes sense,” he said. Schaefer added that VWSA felt comfortable that the investment in the local automotive sector would remain secure, despite the DTI’s current review of the APDP. Noting that exports would, again, play a key role in its strategy going forward, Schaefer outlined that export volumes of Polo were expected to increase by 21% this year to 65 945 units. The current localisation level was around 72% and the new models were expected to have an even higher local content level. IMPERIAL MULLS NEW PLANT (Business Report, 27/8/2015) Imperial Holdings, whose motor vehicle import business has been battered by the deterioration in the value of the rand, is considering establishing a manufacturing plant in South Africa to produce Hyundai passenger cars. If Imperial proceeds with local assembly of Hyundai passenger cars, this will be the first new brand to be manufactured in South Africa since 2009 when Nissan started producing the Renault Sandero as part of the global Renault Nissan alliance. Local production of the Sandero was subsequently discontinued. First Automobile Works (FAW), the Chinese vehicle manufacturer, has invested R600 million in South Africa in a state-of-the-art truck and passenger car plant at the Coega industrial development zone (IDZ) outside Port Elizabeth in the Eastern Cape. Manny de Canha, AMH’s chief executive, confirmed this week that the group had commissioned a study to determine the difference between an Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP) passenger car and an imported passenger car. “That study should tell us whether we should talk to government and go to Korea to [discuss] setting up a small plant to manufacture, which obviously depends on numbers and the viability, or do we stay as is,” he said. De Canha was adamant that if Imperial decided to proceed with local assembly, it would have to set up its own plant and the planned multi-brand vehicle assembly plant at the East London IDZ would not be

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suitable. He stressed that the plant would assemble Hyundai passenger cars but Imperial would also have to secure export contracts for the model produced to make local assembly viable. “The problem is that all the studies are showing us that the cost of manufacturing in South Africa is probably 10 percent more than anywhere else. How can you justify it?” he asked. De Canha said the APDP study would be completed in the next two weeks. FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MASSMART INTERIM SALES UP 9.1% BUT OUTLOOK DOWNBEAT (Engineering News, 28/8/2015) Massmart, a subsidiary of US Wal-Mart, saw its sales rise 9.1% to R38.9-billion in the six months to June as it increased floor space in South Africa and the rest of the continent, the company said in a statement on Thursday. The mass retailer — owner of Game, Makro and Dion Wired — said it expected poor conditions in South Africa over the next 12 to 18 months due to rising interest rates and poor conditions in the rest of Sub Saharan Africa. During the period, the group opened six stores to bring their total to 398 stores and increasing trading space by 0.8% to 1.5-million square meters. Gross Margin was up by 0.3% to 18.9%. The company said one of its strategic priorities has been to grow the core South African business and expand into the food and fresh format at its existing stores. This has seen Game Stores increase its food offering. “Although we are making good progress in this regard, we are constrained by the short-term trading environment,” the group said in a statement. The group also has ambitions of expanding into the rest of Africa, where it can take Game, Builders Warehouse or Cash and Carry to attract middle to low end customers. INTERMODAL 2022 RAIL LINK ALREADY WOOING CARGO OWNERS (Cargo Info Africa, 28/8/2015) Mozambique’s main port at Maputo is gearing up for new cargo volumes arriving from Gauteng via Swaziland. The Lothair, Mpumalanga to Sidvokodvo Swaziland rail link is scheduled for completion in 2022, according to Transnet Freight Rail (TRF), which is partnering with Swaziland Railway on the project. “We are marketing the port to new rail customers,” said Ilidio Matola, director of strategic planning and business development for Portos e Caminhos de Ferro de Mocambique (CFM), the public company that runs Mozambique’s rail and ports systems. Matola was speaking to stakeholders and potential customers at a rail conference in Ezulwini, Swaziland co-sponsored by the European Union and Swaziland Railway earlier this week. In order to induce Gauteng shippers to use the Port of Maputo by taking advantage of the new shorter rail line through Swaziland when it opens in five years’ time, CFM’s strategy is to advise them of rail’s advantages. “In terms of fuel consumption trains are 3.5 times more efficient than trucks because there is less air resistance and friction moving along rails compared to truck tyres against road surfaces. Close spacing of train cars also increases aero-dynamic efficiency,” Matola said. INDUSTRIAL PPI EASES IN JULY (Business Report, 28/8/2015) The Producer Price Index for final manufactured goods, which measures inflation at the factory gate, eased to 3,3 percent in July compared to July last year, down from 3,7 percent in June, Stats SA reported on Thursday. PPI indicates what may happen to prices in the months ahead as wholesalers pass price increases to retailers who in turn pass these on to consumers. The largest increase was in the food, beverages and tobacco products, which rose 5,4 percent. PPI for intermediate manufactured products, which are still to be used as inputs or processed, fell by 0,3 percent suggesting that there is less pressure elsewhere on the value chain. PPI for water and electricity rose 12,2 percent indicating intense pressure for prices of the two vital basic goods to rise over the next few quarters. As the prices are regulated, increases are at specific intervals reflecting built-up producer inflation pressure over the preceding year. PPI provides the pipeline pressure that will see consumer inflation breach the Reserve Bank’s upper target of six percent in the first quarter of next year. IRON THABAZIMBI EXIT BY KUMBA SUITS AQUILA (Business Day, 28/8/2015) Aquila Resources, a subsidiary of China’s Baosteel, viewed its iron-ore deposit near Thabazimbi, Limpopo [as] filling a gap left by the closure of Kumba Iron Ore’s mine in the area, Aquila’s head of country in SA, Mike Halliday, said yesterday. Aquila

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has defined the Meletse deposit near Thabazimbi, with a code-compliant resource of 81-million tonnes of ore with an iron content of 61%. Kumba decided to close its 84year-old Thabazimbi mine after 65-million tonnes of waste from the side walls of its open-pit mine slipped into the void. The mine, which was nearing the end of its life, was four times more expensive to operate than Kumba’s Northern Cape mines. Thabazimbi supplied ArcerlorMittal SA, the country’s largest steel maker. The gap left by Kumba’s decision would be an opportunity for Aquila, which applied for a mining right over Meletse in July 2013, Mr Halliday said. “Meletse makes quite a nice fit with ArcelorMittal,” he said. There were local objections to Aquila building an open-cast mine and the company was dealing with those as it tried to secure the mining right. The mine could produce 2-3million tonnes of ore a year, said Mr Halliday. Mining would target ore with iron content of 62% or more and 65% of production would be high-grade lump ore, which fetches a premium over fine, sand-like ore. While it would make sense to use the infrastructure left by Kumba, talks had not yet started, Mr Halliday said. Meletse is 30km from Kumba’s mine. STEEL STEEL MELTDOWN (Financial Mail, 28/8/2015) SA’s big steel producers are in deep trouble and events are overtaking their ability to save a key but rapidly disintegrating sector. An unprecedented crisis in SA’s steel industry has led to a series of closed-door meetings in recent months, culminating in an unusual alliance of labour and business calling on government to adopt 10 "core collective demands" to prevent a tsunami of job losses in a key sector of the economy. Among these demands are the imposition of tariffs to stop rampant cheap steel imports from China; the designation of steel for government infrastructure spend; and the "urgent rollout" of the state’s 18 strategic integrated infrastructure projects. They also include demands for transparency in the capital expenditure programmes of state-owned enterprises; the banning of scrap steel exports so that local industries can benefit; and delaying the implementation of the proposed carbon tax on the sector. The crisis comes as SA’s second-largest steel maker, Evraz Highveld Steel & Vanadium, wallows in business rescue. ArcelorMittal SA, by far the country’s biggest steel producer, says it may close its specialised Vereeniging plant. More will be known about the fate of both companies by the end of this month. But the path to redemption is strewn with red tape. So broadly worrying are these events that last Friday’s meeting in Pretoria was also attended by representatives from Transnet and government departments. But it may already be too late to save the domestic industry, despite the state’s "commitment" to impose tariffs of up to 10% on steel imports. The steel industry is part of the broad metals and engineering sector in SA that is intimately linked to the fortunes of the mining, construction, energy, infrastructure and automotive value chains. These sectors employ about 8m people. The steel industry itself employs 190 000 people directly plus another 100 000 employed by suppliers. Together, these sectors contributed 17%, or about R575bn, to gross domestic product in 2014, and huge amounts of foreign exchange. ARCELORMITTAL SA’S SUBMISSION FOR SURVIVAL (Financial Mail, 28/8/2015) It’s a strategy as old as the hills. Companies that run into trouble often rush to government with requests to impose duties on foreign imports. And their threats are always the same: plant closures and big job losses. But in ArcelorMittal’s situation in SA today, there may be more justification than is often the case, and the reason can be summarised in a single word: China. Chinese production of steel has increased steadily from 300Mt in 2005 to 800Mt in 2014. Until the recent downturn in China, huge local demand was variable but it was more or less keeping pace with this increase. However, last year the wheels came off. In 2014, steel exports from China increased 59% compared with 2013 which, according to the World Steel Association, was the most steel ever exported by any country this century. That added about 80Mt to the international market and then, in January this year, Chinese exports rose another 63% compared with January 2014 to 9,2Mt. As a result, from March this year, the steel industry around the world has been flocking to governments to appeal for tariff increases, and it has been instructive how governments have reacted. Some, like India, imposed tariffs within a month. Others, like SA, have been slow to respond. What has not happened so far is a decline in production in China. For SA’s largest steel producer, ArcelorMittal SA, which is majority-owned by the international steel giant ArcelorMittal group, problems have been brewing for some time. The company slipped into a loss in 2009, then came back into profit in 2010 and 2011, but since then it has lost more and more every year. Other governments reacted quickly to their corporations’ pleas for protection, but SA rarely does anything in a hurry. Of the 65 countries that produce 98% of the world’s steel, 99% of them have import tariffs to protect their local producers. The ArcelorMittal group is the world’s largest crude steel producer, at 98Mt/year (60%), according to the World Steel Association. Whatever decision ArcelorMittal SA makes this week regarding its Vereeniging operations, the 900 direct jobs at stake will not necessarily be the main priority. When Lakshmi Mittal, the group’s global CE and chairman, jetted into SA in June to plead the local entity’s case for import tariffs, he left behind in Europe a group whose financial performance

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is not at its best. Whatever the ArcelorMittal SA board decides on Friday will not only directly affect its employees, but also suppliers in Vereeniging, where the company is the single largest employer. Significantly, it may also add to at least 20 000 other jobs that are threatened in the mining sector as a result of the depressed commodity environment. CHROME & MANGANESE MINISTER MIRED IN NEW MINE RIGHTS ROW (Business Day, 28/8/2015) Aquila Resources, a subsidiary of China’s state-owned Baosteel, which has had a long-running battle with the Department of Mineral Resources over a manganese deposit, is poised to approach the courts to seek a judicial review if a resolution is not reached. If the legal challenge is launched, it would be the third major case brought against the department this year. An application on the interpretation of the empowerment ownership clause in the Mining Charter has been lodged and another wants the Mining Charters to be set aside. After a 20-month wait, Aquila was notified last month by Mineral Resources Minister Ngoako Ramatlhodi in a brief letter that its mining right application over the Gravenhage manganese deposit in the Northern Cape was rejected and that its prospecting right had been rescinded. The department had issued a prospecting right over the deposit — where Aquila has spent R150m — to Pan African Mineral and Development Company, which is equally owned by the governments of Zimbabwe, Zambia and SA. SA’s stake is held in the state’s mining company African Exploration Mining and Finance Corporation. here had been concerns the confusion over the rights mirrored the 2009 grab of 21.5% of Kumba Iron Ore’s flagship Sishen mine by the politically connected but unknown Imperial Crown Trading (ICT). Kumba, which alleged fraud was behind the awarding of a prospecting right to ICT, fought for its rights all the way to the Constitutional Court, which ruled in its favour in 2013. In the Aquila case, the department is understood to have argued that it had mistakenly overlooked Pan African’s application and had erred in granting a prospecting right to Aquila. Aquila, which is 85% owned by Baosteel Resources, one of the world’s largest steel makers, has outlined a resource of 141-million tonnes of manganese and a reserve of 20-million tonnes to give it annual production of about 1.2-million tonnes for the export market from the 3,500ha Gravenhage deposit. It is unlikely to settle for anything less than full ownership. It applied for its mining right four years ago. Baosteel would want manganese from its own mine to supply its steel mills MINERAL MINING ARM SEES FY HEPS TO FALL BETWEEN 56 AND 60% (Mineweb, 28/8/2015) ARM’s F2015 headline earnings were negatively affected by a decline in US Dollar commodity prices for most of the commodities, which ARM produces. The lower US Dollar prices were partially offset by a weaker average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate. Most of the operations achieved good unit cost control. Accordingly, ARM announces that headline earnings per share for F2015 are expected to decrease by between 56% and 60% to between 765 cents and 835 cents (F2014: 1 900 cents). The Company’s F2015 provisional financial results will be released on 4 September 2015. TRANSNET See article “STEEL MELTDOWN” under heading STEEL See article “2022 RAIL LINK ALREADY WOOING CARGO OWNERS” under heading INTERMODAL CURRENCIES AND PRICES

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ALSI: 3 mnth to 27 Aug 15

(Mail & Guardian, 28/8/2015)

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JSE AS AT 17:04PM 27 AUGUST 2015

All Share Index 27/08 49,125

+ 765.84 + 1.58%

Industrials Index 27/08 42,903

+ 357.51 + 0.84%

Financials Index 27/08 43,383

+ 478.97 + 1.12%

Top 40 Index 27/08 43,625

+ 770.92 + 1.80%

Industrial 25 Index 27/08 63,046

+ 626.54 + 1.00%

Financial 15 Index 27/08 16,231

+ 180.03 + 1.12%

Resources 10 Index 27/08 34,851

+ 1,959.20 + 5.96%

Alt-X Index 27/08 1,275

- 167.40 - 11.60%

WORLD INDICATORS

FOREX

Rand/Dollar 06:40 13.1372

+ 0.02 + 0.13%

Rand/Pound

06:40 20.2424

- 0.03 - 0.16%

Rand/Euro 06:40 14.7851

- 0.06 - 0.43%

COMMODITIES

Gold (usd/oz) 06:36 1,130.80

+ 4.40 + 0.39%

Platinum (usd/oz)

06:36 1,007.40

+ 28.90 + 2.95%

Brent (usd/barrel) 06:36 47.80

+ 4.66 + 10.80%

WORLD MARKETS

Wall St (DJIA) 27/08 16,655

+ 369.26 + 2.27%

Germany (DAX)

27/08 10,316

+ 187.50 + 1.85%

Japan (Nikkei) 06:39 19,092

+ 714.90 + 3.89%

(Business Report, 28/8/2015)

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(TFR Commercial Management: Business Performance Dept)

Petrol/ Diesel Price

YR2015

07-Jan-

15

04-Feb-

15

04-Mar-

15

01-Apr-

15

06-May-

15

03-Jun-

15

01-Jul-

15

05-Aug-

15

02-Sep-

15

07-Oct-

15

04-Nov-

15

02-Dec-

15

COASTAL

95 LRP (c/l) 1083.00 990.00 1086.00 1246.00 1246.00 1293.00 1334.00 1283.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1083.00 990.00 1086.00 1246.00 1246.00 1293.00 1334.00 1283.00

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Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 997.49 895.49 969.49 1090.09 1085.09 1134.09 1138.09 1062.27

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1001.89 899.89 973.89 1096.49 1091.49 1137.49 1141.49 1067.67

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 697.728 595.728 668.728 690.828 685.828 727.828 733.828 663.828

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 1829.00 1679.00 1833.00 1918.00 1935.00 2035.00 2091.00 2002.00

GAUTENG

93 LRP (c/l) 1102.00 1009.00 1105.00 1261.00 1261.00 1308.00 1352.00 1301.00

93 ULP (c/l) 1102.00 1009.00 1105.00 1261.00 1261.00 1308.00 1352.00 1301.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1124.00 1031.00 1127.00 1289.00 1289.00 1336.00 1377.00 1326.00

Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 1028.09 926.09 1000.09 1122.79 1117.79 1166.79 1170.79 1094.97

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1032.49 930.49 1004.49 1129.19 1124.19 1170.19 1174.19 1100.37

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 747.928 645.928 718.928 743.828 738.828 780.828 786.828 716.828

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 2011.00 1861.00 2015.00 2100.00 2117.00 2217.00 2273.00 2184.00

YR2014

01-Jan-

14

05-Feb-

14

05-Mar-

14

02-Apr-

14

07-May-

14

04-Jun-

14

02-Jul-

14

06-Aug-

14

03-Sep-

14

01-Oct-

14

05-Nov-

14

03-Dec-

14

COASTAL

95 LRP (c/l) 1320.00 1359.00 1395.00 1398.00 1383.00 1361.00 1392.00 1392.00 1325.00 1320.00 1275.00 1206.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1320.00 1359.00 1395.00 1398.00 1383.00 1361.00 1392.00 1392.00 1325.00 1320.00 1275.00 1206.00

Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 1260.55 1284.75 1311.95 1299.15 1269.37 1245.79 1259.79 1254.17 1228.79 1215.79 1154.79 1101.49

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1263.95 1288.15 1316.35 1304.55 1274.77 1249.19 1263.19 1258.57 1234.19 1221.19 1161.19 1106.89

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 963.828 975.828 991.828 953.028 934.028 924.028 947.028 940.028 921.028 907.028 855.028 805.728

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 2260.00 2314.00 2372.00 2350.00 2346.00 2319.00 2377.00 2365.00 2257.00 2269.00 2164.00 2039.00

GAUTENG

93 LRP (c/l) 1336.00 1375.00 1411.00 1416.00 1401.00 1379.00 1408.00 1408.00 1341.00 1343.00 1298.00 1229.00

93 ULP (c/l) 1336.00 1375.00 1411.00 1416.00 1401.00 1379.00 1408.00 1408.00 1341.00 1343.00 1298.00 1229.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1357.00 1396.00 1432.00 1439.00 1424.00 1402.00 1433.00 1433.00 1366.00 1361.00 1316.00 1247.00

Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 1287.15 1311.35 1338.55 1329.75 1299.97 1276.39 1290.39 1284.77 1259.39 1246.39 1185.39 1132.09

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1290.55 1314.75 1342.95 1335.15 1305.37 1279.79 1293.79 1289.17 1264.79 1251.79 1191.79 1137.49

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 1009.728 1021.728 1037.728 1003.228 984.228 974.228 997.228 990.228 971.228 957.228 905.228 855.928

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 2442.00 2496.00 2554.00 2532.00 2528.00 2501.00 2559.00 2547.00 2439.00 2451.00 2346.00 2221.00

(SAPIA online)

Daily prices for 27 August 2015

LME Official Prices, US$ per tonne

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Contract Aluminium Alloy Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc NASAAC

Cash Buyer 1600.00 1527.00 5028.00 1652.00 9725.00 13890.00 1725.50 1570.00

Cash Seller & Settlement 1610.00 1528.00 5029.00 1652.50 9730.00 13895.00 1726.00 1575.00

3-months Buyer 1615.00 1546.00 4998.50 1658.00 9765.00 13825.00 1727.00 1590.00

3-months Seller 1625.00 1546.50 4999.00 1660.00 9770.00 13850.00 1727.50 1595.00

15-months Buyer 13690.00

15-months Seller 13740.00

Dec 1 Buyer 1615.00 1618.00 5005.00 1693.00 9825.00 1760.00 1650.00

Dec 1 Seller 1625.00 1623.00 5015.00 1698.00 9925.00 1765.00 1660.00

Dec 2 Buyer 1682.00 5025.00 1720.00 9905.00 1785.00

Dec 2 Seller 1687.00 5035.00 1725.00 10005.00 1790.00

Dec 3 Buyer 1747.00 5055.00 1740.00 9905.00 1790.00

Dec 3 Seller 1752.00 5065.00 1745.00 10005.00 1795.00

(London Metal Exchange, 28/8/2015)

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