disruptive technologies impacting profitability in the ... · title: disruptive technologies...
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L E A D I N G I N E N T E R P R I S E P R O D U C T C O S T I N G | W W W . F A C T O N . C O M
Disruptive Technologies Impacting Profitability in the Auto IndustryAlexander M. Swoboda | CEO | FACTON
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Disruptive technologies impacting profitability in the auto industry
8/15/2019 | FACTON Trade Secret & Copyright, for authorized use only2 |
KEY MESSAGES
▪ The factory/production of the future will be digital, connected and generic to meet tomorrow’s requirements.
▪ Trends and technologies change manufacturing processes and the profitability of the industry.
▪ A thorough understanding of profitability will be key to keep an edge in this fast-changing world.
Photo credits: see page 14
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The factory and production of the future will be digital, connected and generic to meet tomorrow’s requirements
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GENERIC
DIGITAL
CONNECTED
Photo credits: see page 14
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Hand in hand with changes in manufacturing, the profitability of the industry will change
8/15/2019 | FACTON Trade Secret & Copyright, for authorized use only4 |
QUANTUM COMPUTINGThe total quantum computer market will grow to $ 283 million by 2024.
NEW AND LIGHTWEIGHT MATERIALCarbon fiber has average annual growth of 11.1% since 2013.
ACES90% of car innovations and new features are driven by electronics. ELECTRIC
By 2035, 30% of new cars sold globally will be BEVs.
IoT | SMART PRODUCTSIn 2022, more than 50 billion sensors and devices will be connected.
BLOCKCHAINIn the next three years, 54%
of the car pioneers plan to implement a blockchain.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEThe AI in manufacturing market is expected to reach $ 17.2 billion by 2025.
Photo credits: see page 14
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SHARED
Autonomous, Connected and Shared will drive adoption of Electric with huge impact on revenues and costs
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Reduces components
Increases utilization and coordination
Accelerates adaption
Facilitates rapid adoption
Enables fleets of smaller cars
Lower costs to serve
Lower costs to build and operate
ELECTRIC
CONNECTED
Sources: Forbes
AUTONOMOUS
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Electric vehicles seem more expensive, but are more effective through the interaction of ACES
8/15/2019 | FACTON Trade Secret & Copyright, for authorized use only6 | Source: McKinsey Company; AAA (the American Automobile Association, Inc.); own estimate
Cost step from ICE to ACESEstimated per vehicle; end-user perspective. Mileage 100,000 miles; cost in thousand $.
22.5
32
30
ICE - Internal combustionengine
34.5
16
3
ACES
Time
Operation
Production
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Lightweight construction: materials like carbon fiber make it harder to understand long term costs and profitability
8/15/2019 | FACTON Trade Secret & Copyright, for authorized use only7 | Source: AVK Composites Market Report 2018; *estimation; Photo credits: see page 14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2020* 2022*
DEM
AN
D IN
TH
SD. T
ON
S
THE GLOBAL CARBON FIBER MARKET WEIGHT OF A CAR BODY
889 lbs. with sheet metal parts.
vs.222 lbs. with carbon
fiber reinforced plastics
75%
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In a smart production world, products capture real-time cost information during manufacturing
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Warehouse
Products will "know" what they cost.
Machine I
Machine II
"
Photo credits: see page 14
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The blockchain allows new ways to collaborate by sharing costing information across the supply chain
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3PL
3PL
Car ManufacturerCustoms & Port Authorities II
Dealer
Authorized Service Center
Customer
Tier 2
Tier 1
Customs & Port Authorities I
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AI revolutionizes our understanding by automating simple tasks and generating completely new insights
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Automatic inputdata collection
Outlier analysis
Early cost estimator
Automation Insight generation
Linking of costs towarranty / recalls
Automatic optimization
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Roof linings: 90.000
Car doors: 3.000
Rear axles: 324
Quantum Computing is ideal for working with large amounts of product cost data across product and production variants
Source: University Paderborn (Germany); Business Magazine Brand Eins (2006)
Audi 1020
BMW 1032
Ways to combine the components
= in total more than 1020
theoretical combinations
Variant possibilities
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Standardization and digitization are the prerequisites for the step into the future. We call it: Enterprise Product Costing
8/15/2019 | FACTON Trade Secret & Copyright, for authorized use only12 |
Enterprise Product Costing (EPC)
Standardization Digitization
ACES
Electric
New and Lightweight Material
IoT | Smart Products
Blockchain
Quantum Computing
Artificial Intelligence
Photo credits: see page 14
L E A D I N G I N E N T E R P R I S E P R O D U C T C O S T I N G | W W W . F A C T O N . C O M
Alexander M. SwobodaAlexander.Swoboda (at) facton.com
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THANK YOU!
8/15/2019 | FACTON Trade Secret & Copyright, for authorized use only13 |
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Photo creditsPages 2-4, 8, 12: Background photo by Unknown Author is licensed according to CC BY-SA, URL:https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Blauer_hintergrund.png
Pages 3 / 12: Photo by Unknown Author is licensed according to CC BY-SAFactory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Factory
Page 7 Photo by Unknown Author is licensed according to CC BY-NDCarbon fibre: https://theconversation.com/black-to-the-future-carbon-fibre-research-seeds-new-innovation-27148
Page 8: All photos by Unknown Author are licensed according to CC BY-SA or CC BY-NC-ND▪ Shock absorber: http://www.contramanillar.com/amortiguadores-bitubo-especificos-para-harley-davidson/ (CC BY-SA)▪ Warehouse: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Warehouse_of_Grupo_Martins_in_Camaçari_(Brazil).jpg▪ Production: https://www.flickr.com/photos/daimlerag/6759498869 (CC BY-NC-ND)▪ Stamping: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stanzen_TruPunch_5000.jpg (CC BY-SA)
8/15/2019 | FACTON Trade Secret & Copyright, for authorized use only14 |
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