don blackmore
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Asian Development Bank
River Basin Management
Don Blackmore
| October
2010
The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the
data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily beconsistent with ADB official terms.
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The Basins – Murray‐Darling / Africa & Asia
IndusGan es
Euphrates
The clash ofMekong
Nile
PERCEPTION vs FACTurray‐ ar ng
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The Murray‐Darling Basin
Driving Philosophy:
You
can’t
manage
what
you
’
Must move from
percept ons
to
act
“ ”
enables the hard questions
and tradeoffs
to
be
tackled
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Australia – the driest inhabited continent –
800
1000
Asia
North
America
16000
600(L)South
America(ML)
400
Africa4000
0
200Australia
0
Daily water consumption per
capita (including irrigation)
Annual streamflow
per km2
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The Murray‐Darling Basin
(GL)
70% of Australia’s
irrigated agriculture
32000
However...16000
Serious over
‐allocation
of water between
10500 The Cap
8000
1960s‐1980s0
'20s '30s '40s '50s '60s '70s '80s '90s
QLD VIC NSW
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The reform agendaPolicy | Institutional | Instruments | Tools
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The Nile River Basin
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Understanding the current status
Egypt – Aswan has
certainty
Consumption 60
BCM
Jonglei canal –
center of conflict
Ethiopia – 580 BCM
of rainfall—make it
work harder
for the
last
20
years
E uatorial Lakes
Evaporation
130BCM Plus
Demand 10BCM
Maximum
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The Nile
Perception
’
Perception
’
There is not enough water for all reasonable purposes
That Aswan will run dr
There is not enough water for all reasonable purposes
That Aswan will run dr
Egypt has had the Lion’s share of the resourcesEgypt has had the Lion’s share of the resources
Agriculture is declining as a share of the GDP in all NileAgriculture is declining as a share of the GDP in all Nile
.
There is enough water for all reasonable purposes
Aswan will operate at a lower level closer to its design
.
There is enough water for all reasonable purposes
Aswan will operate at a lower level closer to its design
level. Evaporation in Lake Victoria is higher than
Egyptian water availability
level. Evaporation in Lake Victoria is higher than
Egyptian water availability
15% of that in Ethiopia 15% of that in Ethiopia
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The Euphrates
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The Euphrates
Salinity increasedSalinity increased
We do not say we share their oil resources. The cannot sa the share “
20002000
our water resources. This is a right of sovereignty. We have the right to do
.
Süleyman Demirel, Turkish Prime Minister, July 199219801980
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The Euphrates
Perception
Perception
neighbors
neighbors
The salinity problem can be managed with help fromThe salinity problem can be managed with help from
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Indus
The Treaty (1960)
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Indus – The Region
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Indus
Perception
Perception
More surface water storage will result in more water yield
Climate chan e is a lon wa off
More surface water storage will result in more water yield
Climate chan e is a lon wa off
FactFact
Groundwater dominates production and is threatened bylack of management (1-3% change in annual availability)
Groundwater dominates production and is threatened bylack of management (1-3% change in annual availability)
1.5% increase in regulated flow
Western end of the Himalayas is likely to see a
1.5% increase in regulated flow
Western end of the Himalayas is likely to see a30% reduction in flows in the next 30 years30% reduction in flows in the next 30 years
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Ganges River Basin
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Ganges Region – Highly Vulnerable Populations
Poverty
Rate
vs.
Population
density
+
Rainfall
dependence
vulnerability
300AFR
50
Natural
resources
Today’s climate
extremes are
Natural
resources
Today’s climate
extremes are200
2
SAR
30
40
already under alreadyalready under already100
150
EAP20
50
ECA
LACHigh
income MENA10
0
Population density
0
Population living
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The River – South Asia Monsoons
A highly variable hydrology
Difficult to manage
Prone to drought and flood
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Ganges Water Balance
500Total
flow
400Annual
Active storage
Consumptive use
200
300(km3)
Groundwater
100
0
Baseline High Dev.
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Ganges
Perception
Perception
,
the control of Ganges floods
More surface water for irrigation is good
,
the control of Ganges floods
More surface water for irrigation is good
FactFact
Climate change will have a catastrophic impactClimate change will have a catastrophic impact
The next 20+ major dams will have little impact on
mainstream Ganges floods
The next 20+ major dams will have little impact on
mainstream Ganges floods
Surface irrigation is of low value
Conjunctive water use—huge opportunity—can be
Surface irrigation is of low value
Conjunctive water use—huge opportunity—can bedelivered now, a.k.a. the Ganges water machine
Global Circulation Models have not agreed on the
outcome of climate chan e
delivered now, a.k.a. the Ganges water machine
Global Circulation Models have not agreed on the
outcome of climate chan e
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The Mekong
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Mekong Region
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Areas affected by salinity intrusion
Baseline resultsBaseline results
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Mekong Water Balance
400
300Annual Total flow
200
(km3)
Consumptive use
100
0
Baseline High Dev.
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Mekong
Perception
Perception
on lower riparians
There is little space for development without significant
on lower riparians
There is little space for development without significant
FactFact
environmental tradeoffsenvironmental tradeoffs
China dams deliver a much needed increase in low flow
and mitigate salinity intrusion in the delta. They also
China dams deliver a much needed increase in low flow
and mitigate salinity intrusion in the delta. They also
provide scope increase irrigation diversion with little
impact on fisheries
provide scope increase irrigation diversion with little
impact on fisheries
development provided they meet international standards
development provided they meet international standards
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The Australian Story
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Australia’s top 3 water issues
1. Diminishing water security
1. Diminishing water security
Urban population growth
Urban population growth
. ver-a oca on o resources
Rapid and poorly managed expansion of irrigation
. ver-a oca on o resources
Rapid and poorly managed expansion of irrigation
s- s
Uncontrolled groundwater use
s- s
Uncontrolled groundwater use
3. Environmental degradation
3. Environmental degradation
Salinity
Toxic algal blooms
Salinity
Toxic algal blooms
Decline in native fish, birds and floodplain vegetationDecline in native fish, birds and floodplain vegetation
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The reform agendaPolicy |
Institutional |
Instruments |
Tools
l l f ( )
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National water policy reform (1994‐2004)
1994 COAG water reforms
1994 COAG water reforms
Property rights and water markets/trading
Environmental flow rovisions
Property rights and water markets/trading
Environmental flow rovisionsGroundwater management
Water included in National Competition Policy
Groundwater management
Water included in National Competition Policy
2004 National Water Initiative
2004 National Water Initiative
New powers and role for Commonwealth (Federal)
Government
New powers and role for Commonwealth (Federal)
Government
New Commonwealth Water Act (2007)
Water for the Future fund ($12.9 billion)
New Commonwealth Water Act (2007)
Water for the Future fund ($12.9 billion)
Murray-Darling Basin PlanMurray-Darling Basin Plan
W i h d di
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Water rights and water trading
Tradeable rights
Tradeable rights
Differing levels of security (higher and lower reliability)
Entitlement volumetric – er etual
Differing levels of security (higher and lower reliability)
Entitlement volumetric – er etualAllocation (share of available water) – seasonal/annual
Storage and supply (capacity share) – new,
Allocation (share of available water) – seasonal/annual
Storage and supply (capacity share) – new,
in some areas only
Cross-border trade, with some restrictions
bein removed
in some areas only
Cross-border trade, with some restrictions
bein removed
Spot market with water trading brokers
Spot market with water trading brokers
Th M D li B i Pl (2010 11)
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The Murray‐Darling Basin Plan (2010‐11)
Defines ‘Sustainable Diversion Limits’
Defines ‘Sustainable Diversion Limits’
Covers surface- and ground-waters
Will consider climate chan e risks
Covers surface- and ground-waters
Will consider climate chan e risks
Protect environmental ‘assets’Protect environmental ‘assets’
Floodplain forests and wetlands
Environmental flows
Floodplain forests and wetlands
Environmental flows
Political and social implications
Political and social implications
State ‘Water Sharing Plans’ must be accredited
Social impacts must be considered
State ‘Water Sharing Plans’ must be accredited
Social impacts must be considered
Based on ‘best-available’ science(evidence-based policy)Based on ‘best-available’ science(evidence-based policy)
B tt i t l t
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Better environmental outcomes
I t t d f t d d t
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Integrated surface‐water and groundwater use
Major national water research and
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Major national water research andtec no ogy initiatives
CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country
www.csiro.au
CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country
www.csiro.au
Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project
www.csiro.au/partnerships/MDBSY
Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project
www.csiro.au/partnerships/MDBSY
Bureau of MeteorologyAustralian Water Resources Information SystemBureau of MeteorologyAustralian Water Resources Information System
www. om.gov.au wa er
eWater Cooperative Research Centre
www. om.gov.au wa er
eWater Cooperative Research Centre
www.ewater.com.au
www.ewater.com.au
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inte rated modellin s stem
for Australia
Why?
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Why?
Current models struggling to handle 21C policyand management complexityCurrent models struggling to handle 21C policyand management complexity
Recognition by COAG partners that their models
are reaching their ‘use-by’ date (IQQM, REALM,
Recognition by COAG partners that their models
are reaching their ‘use-by’ date (IQQM, REALM,BigMOD)
The need for nationally consistent modeling
BigMOD)
The need for nationally consistent modeling
base, integrating:Engineering, environment and management
base, integrating:Engineering, environment and management
City water supplies in a catchment context
Planning and operational requirements
City water supplies in a catchment context
Planning and operational requirementsScalable and customizableScalable and customizable
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LAND USE
ECOLOGICAL
ASSETS
for rural and urban water management
DAMS &
WEIRS
IRRIGATION CITIES
The Basins Murray Darling / Africa & Asia
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The Basins – Murray‐Darling / Africa & Asia
IndusGan es
Euphrates
The clash ofMekong
NilePERCEPTION vs FACTurray‐ ar ng
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