21st Annual International EMME Users Conference 1
2007 EMME Users Conference12 October, 2007
Modelling Needs of Peel Region in the Context of the Emerging Greater
Toronto and Hamilton Area
By: Murray McLeod, P. Eng.
Manager of Transportation Planning,
Peel Region, Ontario, Canada
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Purpose
•Transportation Challenges in Peel•Use of EMME Modelling to Measure
Transportation Performance •Use of 3D Graphics to Communicate
Value of Peel Transportation Solutions (a Work in Progress)
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Caledon
Mississauga
Brampton
Peel’s Strategic Location
Hamilton
Halton
Toronto
York
Durham
Peel
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Provincial Policy 2005 : Places to Grow (PTG), A Blueprint for Development
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PTG Forecasts Rapid Population Growth in Suburban 905 Areas
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Source: 1971-2006 Statistics Canada2011-2031 Places to Grow
Population ( in Millions)
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Population ( in Millions)
Peel
York
DurhamHalton
Hamilton
905 Area(Peel, York, Durham,
Halton, and Hamilton)
416 Area(Toronto)
1988
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GO Rail and Bus Service:
A Radial Network
Source: Peel Long Range Transportation Plan Report – September 2005
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Provincial MoveOntario 2020 Announcement, June 2007
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Peel’s Encouragement of Sustainable Transportation in the FutureDaily Trips(millions)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Auto PassengerWalk & Cycle
Transit
Auto Driver
SustainableTravel Modes
70%
CurrentTrend
AggressiveTransit/TDM
30%
CurrentTrend
1.7 cars/household
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Peel (GTHA) Transit Challenges
•Full daily GO Rail service (e.g. Milton, Georgetown)
•New GO Rail service (Bolton) •New express trains (e.g.
Brampton)•Add circumferential services (GO
Bus and GO Rail)•Enhance local transit network
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Trip Generation
Work Other
Trip Distribution
Work Other
Modal Split
Trip Assignment
School
Apply Growth Factors
Peak Hour
Factors
Airport
ApplyGrowth Factors
Peel Uses a 4-Stage Transportation Forecasting Model (EMME)
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Model Application: Arterial Extension of Highway 427
Origin-Destination plot (Select-Link Analysis)
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Vehicle Kilometres of Travel (VKT) for Peel Arterial Roads
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2001 2011 2021 2031
Years
VK
T(i
n t
ho
usan
ds)
Uncongested Vehicle KM
Congested Vehicle KM
Total +47%
Total +17%
Total +7%
69%
67%
56%
42%
Source: Regional EMME/2 Model
+10%
+40%
+94%
Model Application: 2/3 of Peak Hour Travel on Peel Arterials will be Congested
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Peel (GTHA) Highway/Road Challenges
• Extend key freeways (410, 427)• Selective Widening (e.g. 401 west of
410) • New Freeways (e.g. GTA West Corridor)• Roads to support new development
and transit• Expansion to support inter-regional
travel
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Goods Movement in Peel (Major Freight Hub for Southern Ontario)
Peel Region
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Peel’s Industrial Economy: Freight Centres Around the Pearson Airport
46
10
Freight Centres in Peel Region Freight Centres in Peel Region
24
12
47
66
18
1517
13
2327
38
48
9
22
45
Legend
Service Facility
Yard
WarehouseIntermodalTerminalHighway Network
Note: Circle Size does not correspond to actual size of the facility
36
20
84
Legend Service Facility Yard Warehouse Intermodal Terminal Highway Network
Canadian Cities
US Cities
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Canada-US Trade is Dominated by Trucks on Hwy 401 and QEW (crossing Peel)
Canada-US Trade is Dominated by Trucks on Hwy 401 and QEW (crossing Peel)
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Ontario/Quebec Trade Corridor Announcement and MOU, July 2007
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Peel/GTHA Challenges for Goods Movement
• Peel/Private Sector Goods Movement Planning Partnership
• Strategic Goods Movement Plan for Peel
• Improvements to NAFTA Corridors• Improvements to Border Crossings• Pursue Multi-Modal Gateway
Solutions
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Transportation Performance as a Driver of Transportation Solutions
•Transportation issues in Peel•Assessing Peel/GTHA for
transportation performance •Use of 3D graphics to
communicate value of Peel transportation solutions (interested in your views)
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Transportation Performance Measurement Framework (Passengers & Goods)
Performance Measures
– Time/speed– Network connectivity
redundancy– Choice/mode– Reliability– Service Quality– Safety– Air emissions
Economic
Social/Quality of Life
Environment
Valuation
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Highway 401 AADT Growth (1982, 1987, 1989, 1992)
Oakville
Oshawa
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Speed/Flow Performance of Highway 401Westbound section from Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995)
MTO Compass System Data
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Tim
e T
rave
lled
(min
)
Distance Travelled (km)
AM Peak Congestion Doubles Travel Time on Highway 401
Westbound Collectors, Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995)
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Speed/Volume Performance of a Freeway Lane
Highway Capacity Manual, 1985
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Calgary Congestion Study
Woudsma, 2006
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Woudsma, 2006
Congestion in Calgary over time
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Woudsma, 2006
Morning Peak Congestion Influence Surface
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2001 Peel Population by Traffic Zone
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2001 Peel Population
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2001 GTA Population
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Projected 2031 GTA Employment (PTG)
Soberman Report, Nov 2006
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Employment Change 2001 to 2031
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Density of Transit Use in 2001 (TTS)
Soberman Report, Nov 2006
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GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)
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GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)
Existing GO Rail Service
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GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)
Express GO Rail Service from Bramalea Station
Existing GO Rail Service Plus a New Bolton Station
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AM Peak Hour Freeflow Road Network Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)
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AM Peak Hour Congested Road Network Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)
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AM Peak Hour Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)
Free flow Road Network Congested Road Network
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Other 3D Mapping Applications
– Accessibility to Jobs– Impact of Flow Management of Highways– Impact of HOV Lanes– Impact of Other TDM Measures– Impact of Tolls
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Final Thoughts
• EMME is a tool to measure the impacts of future transportation improvements
• ARCGIS is a tool to visualize the impacts of future transportation improvements
• ARCGIS helps communicate the value of transportation improvements (for transportation decision-makers, the public, politicians and senior funding agencies)
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Special thanks to:
ESRI Canada: Alex Miller
Matt English
Susan Enyedy-Goldner
Questions??
Demonstration