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Page 1: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

1) ThenumberofMainlandChineseresidentsvisitingtheUKfellby13.5%inthefirsthalfof2016—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sBrexitreferendumvoteledtheBritishpoundtodepreciateandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.WeawaitdataonvisitornumbersfromChinasincethisdepreciation.

2) Tax-freespendingbytouristsintheUKjumpedfollowingthepound’sdepreciation.DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctober,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKclimbedby58%yearoveryear.

3) Thebounceinspendingfollowedaperiodofweakening:theaverageChinesevisitorcuttheirspendintheUKby14%yearoveryearin2015.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theaveragespendfellfurther,by21%yearoveryear,to£1,649.

4) High-endbrands,suchasLouisVuittonandChanel,haveraisedtheirUKpricestoreducedifferencestopriceselsewhereintheworld.Thesemoveswilltemperanygrowthintouristspendingthatisbeingdrivenbytheattractionofmoreaffordableluxurygoods.Anyupliftinvisitornumbersresultingfromvisitorsflockingtobuyluxurygoodsmaywellhavepeaked.

D e b o r a h W e i n s w i g

M a n a g i n g D i r e c t o r , F u n g G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y

d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9 C N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6

Deep Dive: Chinese

Tourists in the UK—Time is

Running Out on Cheaper Luxury

Shopping

Page 2: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

2

December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Contents

ExecutiveSummary.............................................................................................................................3

Introduction........................................................................................................................................4

HowPopularistheUKforChineseTravelers?.....................................................................................4

SterlingDepreciationMakesUKMoreAttractive................................................................................4

Spendingup—DrivenbyLargerAverageBasketSizes............................................................................5

LuxuryBrandsHikePricesintheUK....................................................................................................8

ChineseTravelersLiketoShop......................................................................................................8

DepreciationPromptsUKPriceRises............................................................................................9

Medium-TermView:UKLagsinAttractingChineseTourists..............................................................11

Outlookto2017:PriceHarmonizationCouldStymieSustainedTravelerBoost..................................13

Page 3: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

ExecutiveSummarySome325,000visitorscametotheUKfromMainlandChinain2015,asignificantincreaseof39.5%overthenumberofvisitorsin2014.Officialfiguresshowthatthisnumberhasdeclined13.5%inthefirsthalfof2016—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sBrexitreferendumvoteledtothedepreciationofthepoundandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.

Oneofourkeyfindingsisthat,whileChinesetouristsarespendingmoreinthewakeofthedepreciationofthepound,itislessapparentwhethervisitornumbershaveincreasedtoasimilarextent:

• Chinesevisitorsincreasedtheirtax-freespendintheUKby25%inSeptember,accordingtotax-refundproviderGlobalBlue.DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctober,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKjumpedby58%yearoveryear,whilethenumberoftransactionsroseby30%,suggestingtheoverallspendingboostwasinlargepartduetohigheraveragebasketvalues.

• OfficialmonthlydataforvisitornumbersbybroadregionshowedarecoveryinJune,butthereferendumresultwasannouncedonlyonJune24,whichsuggeststhatcannotbetheprincipalreasonfortheuplift.TotaloverseasvisitorgrowthstrengthenedfurtherinJuly,buthasgenerallybeeninconsistentsincethereferendum.

• PriortotheBrexitvote,averagespendbyChinesevisitorshadbeenweakening:theaverageChinesevisitorcuttheirspendintheUKby14%in2015,to£2,075,weestimatefromOfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)data.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theperiodwhichthelatestofficialdatacover,theaveragespendfellfurther,by21%yearoveryear,to£1,649.

High-endbrands,suchasBurberry,Chanel,LouisVuittonandRolexhaveincreasedtheirUKpricestoreducethedifferencesbetweenregions.Chanelsaidthatitneeded“toreachconsistentpricelevels”betweendifferentpartsoftheworld.Thesemoveswilltemperanyincreasesinvisitsandspendthatarebeingdrivenbytheattractionofmoreaffordableluxurygoods.

Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.However,thesecondhalfof2017willlikelyseedemandingcomparativesforthesemetricsastheyannualizethepost-referendumboost,andthiswillmakesustainingrobustgrowthevenmoredifficult.

WhileChinesetouristsarespendingmoreinthewakeofthedepreciationofthepound,itislessapparentwhethervisitornumbershaveincreasedtoasimilarextent.

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TheUKwasthe13thmostpopulardestinationforChinesetravelers,accordingtooursurveyofChineseconsumersinApril2016.

IntroductionTheUK’svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnion(EU)promptedafallinthevalueofsterling,makingthecountryanevenmoreattractivedestinationfortouristsfromothercountries,andespeciallythosetouristswhoareenthusiasticshoppers—suchastheChinese.

Inthisreport,weroundupthelatestdataonvisitornumbersandspendingintheUK,withaparticularfocusontheimpactofthedepreciationoftheBritishpoundinthewakeoftheUK’svotetoleavetheEU.Webeginwithsometop-linefindingsonvisitornumbers.

HowPopularistheUKforChineseTravelers?Some325,000residentsofMainlandChinamadeatriptotheUKin2015,asignificantincreaseof39.5%overthenumberofvisitorsin2014.Yet,MainlandChinacomprisedjust3%ofoverseasvisitstotheUKin2015.

Visitornumbersturnednegativein2016,however.Inthefirsthalfof2016,thenumberofvisitorsfromMainlandChinatotheUKfellby13.5%,accordingtoouranalysisofONSdata—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sreferendumvotepromptedadepreciationofthepoundandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.

TheUKwasthe13thmostpopulardestinationforChinesetravelers,accordingtooursurveyofChineseconsumersinApril2016.TheUKrankedbehindEuropeanneighborssuchasFranceandGermany.Oursurveyfoundthat0.8%ofallChineseconsumerswesurveyedhadtakenatriptotheUKinthepastyear.Thefullreport,GlobalChineseShoppersCarrySpendingMomentumInto2016,canbefoundatbit.ly/FungChineseTourists2016.

Source:Shutterstock

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

SterlingDepreciationMakesUKMoreAttractiveThedepreciationoftheBritishpoundafterthecountryvotedtoleavetheEUmadevisitingandshoppingintheUKbettervalueforalmostalloverseastravelers.TheboostforChinesetravelershasbeenan8.7%appreciationintheirpurchasingpowerintheperiodafterthereferendum,comparedtothefirstsixmonthsof2016.

Inthefollowingchart,wetracktheshiftintheexchangerateoftheChineseyuan(RMB)toBritishpound(GBP)sofarin2016.

Figure1.RMBtoGBPExchangeRate,2016

ThroughNovember28Source:USForex

SpendingUp—DrivenbyLargerAverageBasketSizesInthissection,weroundupthelatestindicatorsonChinesetravelernumbersandtheirspending.OnetrendnotedbymultiplesourceswasthatGoldenWeek,aChineseholidayperiodinOctober,sawajumpinvisitornumbersandtheirspendingin2016.

Akeytakeawayfromthedatabelow,inourview,isthatthegrowthinspendingbyChinesetouristsintheUKhasinlargepartbeendrivenbyvisitorsbuyingmoreduringeachshoppingtrip.Itislessclearthattherehasbeenasimilarlylargeuptickinvisitornumbers.

Figuresfromtax-refundserviceGlobalBluesuggesthigheraveragespendvalueshavedrivenuptheamountpurchasedbytouristsintheUK:

• DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctoberthisyear,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKjumpedby58%yearoveryear;thenumberoftransactionsroseby30%,suggestingtheoverallspendingboostwasinlargepartduetohigheraveragebasketvalues.

0.100

0.105

0.110

0.115

0.120Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Average:0.1066

Average:0.1158

+8.7%

GoldenWeek,aChineseholidayperiodinOctober,sawajumpinvisitornumbersandtheirspendingin2016.

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

• Chinesevisitorsuppedtheirtax-freespendintheUKby25%inSeptember.Inthesamemonth,touristsoverallgrewtheirspendintheUKby28%yearoveryear.

• SpendingbytouristsoverallintheUKinthefirsttenmonthsof2016wasup9%,buttheaveragetransactionvaluewasup10%,suggestingthatspendingisbeingdrivenbyhigherbasketvaluemorethanbyagreaternumberofshoppingvisits.

• InOctober,theUKdoubleditsshareofglobalChinesetax-freespending,to15%.

AccordingtoChina’slargestonlinetravelagency,Ctrip:

• ForGoldenWeek2016,theUKsawthebiggestyear-over-yearincreaseintravelbookingsofallcountries.ThenumberofChinesevisitorstotheUKbookingviaCtripjumpedby60%yearoveryear.

• Chinesetourists’interestintheUKremainedaftertheendofGoldenWeek,withdemandforvisitsaroundtheChristmas-shoppingperiodandtheJanuarysalesperiod.

• AmongChinesetravelers,theUKisapproachinglong-termfavoritedestinationssuchastheUS,ItalyandFrance,butisstillwellbehindlocaldestinationssuchasJapan,SouthKoreaandThailand.

• However,Ctripisafast-growing,online-onlyagent—forinstance,itstotalnetrevenuesgrewby75%yearoveryearinthethirdquarterof2016.Thismeansitsnumbersarenotrepresentativeoftheoveralltravel-bookingmarket.

Source:Shutterstock

VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinagrewby2.6%inthefirstquarterof2016andthenfell26.3%inthesecond

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

ThelatestofficialUKvisitorfiguresfromtheONSshowsomerecoveryintotalvisitornumbersfromJune—butthisbeganbeforethereferendumandthedepreciationofthepound.Moreover,specificdataforvisitorsfromChinafortheperiodafterthereferendumarenotyetpublished.

• VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinagrewby2.6%inthefirstquarterof2016,andthenfell26.3%inthesecondquarter.Thisaveragesafirst-halfdeclineof13.5%.TheONSpublishesitsfiguresforthethirdquarter,whichcoverstheperiodaftertheBrexitreferendumheld,onJanuary27.

• 2016figuresareagainstdemandingcomparativesfrom2015,whenvisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinasurged39.5%.

• MonthlyONSdataforvisitornumbersbybroadregionshowedarecoveryinJune,buttheEUreferendumresultwasannouncedonlyonJune24,whichsuggeststhatcannotbetheprincipalreasonfortheuplift.GrowthafterJunehasbeeninconsistentforvisitorsfromthe“Other”region,whichincludesChina.ThesolidincreaseinvisitornumbersinJulymayhavebeenashort-livedboostasaresultofthepound’sdepreciation.Wechartthesedatabelow.

Thelowgrowthininternationalvisitornumbersbolsterourperceptionthatincreasedtouristspendingisbeingdrivenmorebyanincreaseinper-personspendingthanbygrowthinvisitornumbers.

Figure2.MonthlyVisitorNumberstotheUK,YoY%Change

“Other”includesallregionsapartfromNorthAmericaandEurope.Source:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Thereissignificantscopeforabounceinaveragespendinginthesecondhalfof2016:theamounttypicallyspentintheUKbyaChinesetravelerfell14%in2015,to£2,075,weestimatefromONSdata.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theaveragespendfell21%to£1,649—althoughthismaybeskewedbycalendareffectswhichweighthigher-spendingvisitstothesecondhalf

1.32.1

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

Total "Other"Incl.China

EUReferendum

VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinasurged39.5%in2015.

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Some61%ofChineseoverseasshoppersexpecttospendmoreonshoppingwhiletravelingoverseasinthenextyear,comparedtothepreviousyear.

oftheyear.Againstthefirsthalfof2015,spendingfellby19%inthefirsthalfof2016.

Ifthesecondhalfof2016sawadepreciation-inducedrecoveryto2014spendinglevels,thiswouldequatetoa45%jump,oranadditional£754pervisitor.

Figure3.UK:AverageSpendingperVisit,byMainlandChinaResidents(GBP)

AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

LuxuryBrandsHikePricesintheUKChineseTravelersLiketoShop

Shopping—andshoppingforluxurybrands—isanimportantpartofmanyChinesetourists’trips.ThiswasconfirmedbyourApril2016surveyofChineseconsumers.NotethatthefollowingmetricsarenotspecifictotheUK:

• Some61%ofChineseoverseasshoppersexpectedtospendmoreonshoppingwhiletravelingoverseasinthecomingyear,comparedtothepreviousyear;only17%expectedtospendlessonshoppingwhiletraveling.

• TheaverageChinesetravelerwillspendanestimated$1,783onretailpurchasespertripin2016,upfrom$1,678in2015.

1,768

1,4281,615

2,3042,403

2,075

1,649

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H16

(14)%

(21)%

Ifthesecondhalfof2016sawadepreciation-inducedrecoveryto2014spendinglevels,thiswouldequatetoa45%jump,oranadditional£754pervisitor.

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• Duty-freestores(shoppedby32%ofChineseoverseasshoppers),largedepartmentstores(23%),specialtystores(13%)andoutletstores(11%)werethemostpopulartypesofstoresforoverseasshopping.

• Fragrances/beautyproducts(boughtby67%ofChineseoverseasshoppers),apparel,(63%),healthsupplements/vitamins(25%)andwatches(25%)werethemostpopularcategoriestobeboughtonoverseastrips.

Thefullreport,GlobalChineseShoppersCarrySpendingMomentumInto2016,canbefoundatbit.ly/FungChineseTourists2016.

Chinesetravelers’spendingissubstantialbecausetheyaretypicallyshoppingnotjustforthemselves.Onaverage,only51%oftheirretailspendisforthemselves,while32%isforgiftsforothersand19%isforresalebackinChina,accordingtoOliverWyman,amanagementconsultancy.IntheUK,theaveragespendongoodsforresalebyeachChinesetraveleris$299in2016.

Figure4.Per-PersonResellSpend,byChineseTravelers,2016

Source:OliverWyman

Tourists—Chineseorotherwise—areverysignificantconsumersofluxurybrandsintheUK:foreignersaccountedfor50%–55%ofallluxurygoodssalesinthecountryin2015,accordingtoExaneBNPParibas.

DepreciationPromptsUKPriceRises

Followingthedepreciationofthepound,travelershaveenjoyedcheaperpurchasesintheUK,andthishasboostedthepopularityinparticularofbuyingluxurygoodsinBritain.However,thisbenefitlookstobeshort-lived.Manyluxurybrandshaveraisedpricesinordertoreducethepricedifferentialwithothermarkets.

$360

$312 $299 $295$272

US France UK Korea Macau

Manyluxurybrandshaveraisedpricesinordertoreducethepricedifferentialwithothermarkets.

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Chanelinstitutedapolicyofaligningitspricesindifferentmarketsin2015.Initially,thistooktheformofloweringpricesinAsia,butthedepreciationofthepoundhasmeantincreasesintheUK.ThecompanytoldTheTimesnewspaperinNovember:“Weneededtoadjustourpricesaccordinglyinordertoreachconsistentpricelevelsintheeurozoneandtherestoftheworld.”

AccordingtoouranalysisofdatacollectedbySpottedfashion.com,Chanelhikedpricesacross11linesinitsFlapBagandBoyBagrangesbyanaverage10.6%inNovember2016.ThiswasChanel’sthirdpriceriseof2016forclassicbags,accordingtoSpottedfashion.com,followinghikesinMarchandJuly.Welistselectedexampleitemsbelow.

Figure5.UK:SelectedChanelClassicBagsPrices

Nov2016 Pre-Nov2016 %Increase

ChanelMiniClassicFlapBag £2,100 £1,910 10.0%

ChanelSmallClassicFlapBag £3,840 £3,480 10.3%

ChanelMediumClassicFlapBag £3,990 £3,620 10.2%

ChanelJumboClassicFlapBag £4,450 £3,980 11.8%

Source:Spottedfashion

LouisVuittonhasalsopushedupUKpricesthreetimessofarin2016:inApril,AugustandOctober.AcrossnineLuisVuittonbaglinesrecordedbySpottedfashion.com,pricesincreasedbyanaverageof16.1%between2015andOctober2016.Welistafewexampleitemsbelow.

Figure6.UK:SelectedLouisVuittonClassicBagsPrices

Oct2016 2015 %Change

LouisVuittonEpiNeverfullMMBag £1,390 £1,160 19.8%

LouisVuittonNeverfullMMBag £880 £710 23.9%

LouisVuittonCapucinesMMBag £3,700 £3,150 17.4%LouisVuittonMonogramEmpreinteSpeedyBandouliere30Bag £1,850 £1,710 8.2%

Source:Spottedfashion

BurberryandCartieralsopushedupUKpricesbetweenMarchandNovember2016,accordingtoTheTimes.RolexincreasedUKpricesby10%inearlyNovember,accordingtotradewebsiteWatchPro;thesitesaidthiswasthefirstUKpriceriseinstitutedbyRolexsince2012.RichemontandLVMHincreasedUKwatchpricesinSeptember,accordingtoWatchPro.PatekPhilippeputitsUKpricesupby10%atthebeginningofAugust,itsUKManagingDirector,MarkHearn,toldtheNewYorkTimes.

Moreover,someindustryexpertshavespeculatedthatfurtherpriceriseswillbeseenfromaroundspring2017,whenhedgingcontractsstarttoexpireandthecostofimportedgoodsincreasesasaresult.Thesegeneralpricerisescouldbeseenacrossvariouscategories.

AcrossnineLuisVuittonbaglines,pricesincreasedbyanaverageof16.1%between2015andOctober2016.

RichemontandLVMHincreasedUKwatchpricesinSeptember.

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Medium-TermView:UKLagsinAttractingChineseTouristsBelow,weofferafive-yearviewofChinesevisitornumbersandspending.Overthefiveyearsthrough2015,annualvisitornumbersfromMainlandChinahaverisenby130%.VisitornumbersfromtheMainlandjumpedby39.5%in2015,whenChinesetravelernumberstoEuropeasawholeroseby40%,accordingtotheEuropeanTravelCommission.Slovakia,Iceland,MontenegroandSpainsawthebiggestincreasesin2015,comfortablyoutpacingeventheUK’sstrongperformance.

Figure7.UK:NumberofOverseasVisits,byChina/HongKongResidents(Thou.)

*AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS

SpendingbyvisitorsfromMainlandChinaintheUKroseby20.5%in2015,wellbelowtheriseinvisitornumbers.Asnotedearlier,per-personspendfellandthisprovidesundemandingcomparativesforgrowthinspending-per-visitorin2016.

However,AccordingtotheONS,MainlandChinesevisitorscuttheirtotalspendingintheUKby13.6%inthefirstquarterof2016andby40.1%inthesecondquarter(latest).

Figure8.UK:SpendingWhileonTrips,byChina/HongKongResidents

*AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS

141 181 215 237 233325

131149 135

163 159

204

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MainlandChina* HongKong

249 259 347546 559

674129 176186

248 247266

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MainlandChina* HongKong

VisitornumberstotheUKfromtheMainlandjumpedby39.5%in2015,whenChinesetravelernumberstoEuropeasawholeroseby40%.

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TheUKcapturedjusta4.1%shareofthetotal7.98milliontripsfromChinatoWesternandNorthernEuroperecordedbytheEuropeanTravelCommissionin2015.ThissuggestsmajoropportunitiesfortheUKtowinalargershareofChinesetrips.

The325,000visitorsin2015isashadowofthe2.2millionthatFranceattractedinthesameyear.Italy,SwitzerlandandGermanywerealsomorepopularthantheUKforChinesetouristsinthefirsthalfof2015(latest),accordingtoTravelChinaGuide.

Figure9.NumberofVisitorsfromMainlandChina,SelectedCountries/Territories

CountryorTerritory 2014(Mil.) 2015(Mil.) %Change

HongKong 47.25 45.84 -3.0

Macau 21.25 20.40 -4.0

Thailand 4.64 7.93 71.1

SouthKorea 6.13 5.98 -2.3

Japan 2.41 4.99 107.3

Taiwan 3.99 4.18 4.9

USA 2.19 2.27 3.7

France N/A 2.2 N/A

Australia* 0.74 0.90 21.7

UK 0.23 0.33 39.5

*YearsendSeptember.Source:Nationalstatisticsoffices/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Accordingtoseparatedataonthenumberoftripsorganizedbytravelagencies,theUKrankedasthe16th-most-populardestinationforChinesetouristsin2015.NotethatthisseverelyunderrepresentstripstolocalterritoriessuchasHongKong,whererelativelyfewvisitorswillrelyontravelagencies.

Figure10.NumberofVisitsfromMainlandChinaOrganizedThroughTravelAgencies,2015(Mil.)

CountryorTerritory 2015(Mil.)

1 Thailand 7.37

2 HongKong 6.67

3 Korea 4.85

4 Japan 4.59

5 TaiwanRegion 3.98

6 MacaoRegion 3.47

7 Singapore 1.65

TheUKcapturedjusta4.1%shareofthetotal7.98milliontripsfromChinatoWesternandNorthernEuropein2015.

TheUKrankedasthe16th-most-populardestinationforChinesetouristsin2015.

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CountryorTerritory 2015(Mil.)

8 Malaysia 1.16

9 Vietnam 1.13

10 France 1.01

11 Indonesia 0.99

12 Italy 0.83

13 Germany 0.74

14 Switzerland 0.72

15 Russia 0.62

16 UnitedKingdom 0.42

17 Philippines 0.31

18 Netherlands 0.20

19 India 0.17

20 Spain 0.14

Source:ChinaNationalTourismAdministration

OutlookTo2017:PriceHarmonizationCouldStymieSustainedTravelerBoostThepost-referendumboostinspendingbytourists,includingChinesetourists,appearstohavebeendrivensubstantiallybyincreasedspendpertourist.Itislessclearthattherehasbeenacomparablystrongsurgeintotaltravelernumbers,althoughweawaitofficialfiguresrelatingtoChinesetravelernumberssincethepound’sdepreciation.

ThemovesbyluxurybrandstoraiseUKpricescouldwellputahalttoanygrowthinChinesetravelernumbersandtheirspendingintheUK,whichhasbeendrivenbytheappealoflow-cost,high-endshopping.Indeed,anyupliftinvisitornumbersresultingfromvisitorsflockingtobuyluxurygoodsmaywellhavepeaked.

TheseluxurypricerisesdonotimplythereisnofinancialbenefittoChinesetravelerstovisittheUK:thedepreciationofthepoundmeanstheirin-countrytransportationandhotelcosts,leisurespendingandnonluxuryretailpurchaseswillstillbelowerthantheywouldhavebeen.

Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.However,thesecondhalfof2017willlikelyseedemandingcomparativesforthesemetricsastheyannualizethepost-referendumboost.Thiswillmakesustainingrobustgrowthevenmoredifficult.

Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

HongKong:8thFloor,LiFungTower888CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223004406London:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomTel:44(0)2076168988NewYork:1359Broadway,9thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017

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