chinese tourists in the uk december 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · one of our key findings is that,...

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1 December 28, 2016 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 1) The number of Mainland Chinese residents visiting the UK fell by 13.5% in the first half of 2016—but this was before the UK’s Brexit referendum vote led the British pound to depreciate and so made the UK a more appealing destination for shoppers from overseas. We await data on visitor numbers from China since this depreciation. 2) Tax-free spending by tourists in the UK jumped following the pound’s depreciation. During China’s Golden Week holiday period in October, Chinese tax-free spending in the UK climbed by 58% year over year. 3) The bounce in spending followed a period of weakening: the average Chinese visitor cut their spend in the UK by 14% year over year in 2015. In the first half of 2016, the average spend fell further, by 21% year over year, to £1,649. 4) High-end brands, such as Louis Vuitton and Chanel, have raised their UK prices to reduce differences to prices elsewhere in the world. These moves will temper any growth in tourist spending that is being driven by the attraction of more affordable luxury goods. Any uplift in visitor numbers resulting from visitors flocking to buy luxury goods may well have peaked. Deborah Weinswig Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Deep Dive: Chinese Tourists in the UKTime is Running Out on Cheaper Luxury Shopping

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Page 1: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

1

December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

1) ThenumberofMainlandChineseresidentsvisitingtheUKfellby13.5%inthefirsthalfof2016—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sBrexitreferendumvoteledtheBritishpoundtodepreciateandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.WeawaitdataonvisitornumbersfromChinasincethisdepreciation.

2) Tax-freespendingbytouristsintheUKjumpedfollowingthepound’sdepreciation.DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctober,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKclimbedby58%yearoveryear.

3) Thebounceinspendingfollowedaperiodofweakening:theaverageChinesevisitorcuttheirspendintheUKby14%yearoveryearin2015.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theaveragespendfellfurther,by21%yearoveryear,to£1,649.

4) High-endbrands,suchasLouisVuittonandChanel,haveraisedtheirUKpricestoreducedifferencestopriceselsewhereintheworld.Thesemoveswilltemperanygrowthintouristspendingthatisbeingdrivenbytheattractionofmoreaffordableluxurygoods.Anyupliftinvisitornumbersresultingfromvisitorsflockingtobuyluxurygoodsmaywellhavepeaked.

D e b o r a h W e i n s w i g

M a n a g i n g D i r e c t o r , F u n g G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y

d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9 C N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6

Deep Dive: Chinese

Tourists in the UK—Time is

Running Out on Cheaper Luxury

Shopping

Page 2: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

2

December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Contents

ExecutiveSummary.............................................................................................................................3

Introduction........................................................................................................................................4

HowPopularistheUKforChineseTravelers?.....................................................................................4

SterlingDepreciationMakesUKMoreAttractive................................................................................4

Spendingup—DrivenbyLargerAverageBasketSizes............................................................................5

LuxuryBrandsHikePricesintheUK....................................................................................................8

ChineseTravelersLiketoShop......................................................................................................8

DepreciationPromptsUKPriceRises............................................................................................9

Medium-TermView:UKLagsinAttractingChineseTourists..............................................................11

Outlookto2017:PriceHarmonizationCouldStymieSustainedTravelerBoost..................................13

Page 3: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

3

December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

ExecutiveSummarySome325,000visitorscametotheUKfromMainlandChinain2015,asignificantincreaseof39.5%overthenumberofvisitorsin2014.Officialfiguresshowthatthisnumberhasdeclined13.5%inthefirsthalfof2016—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sBrexitreferendumvoteledtothedepreciationofthepoundandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.

Oneofourkeyfindingsisthat,whileChinesetouristsarespendingmoreinthewakeofthedepreciationofthepound,itislessapparentwhethervisitornumbershaveincreasedtoasimilarextent:

• Chinesevisitorsincreasedtheirtax-freespendintheUKby25%inSeptember,accordingtotax-refundproviderGlobalBlue.DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctober,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKjumpedby58%yearoveryear,whilethenumberoftransactionsroseby30%,suggestingtheoverallspendingboostwasinlargepartduetohigheraveragebasketvalues.

• OfficialmonthlydataforvisitornumbersbybroadregionshowedarecoveryinJune,butthereferendumresultwasannouncedonlyonJune24,whichsuggeststhatcannotbetheprincipalreasonfortheuplift.TotaloverseasvisitorgrowthstrengthenedfurtherinJuly,buthasgenerallybeeninconsistentsincethereferendum.

• PriortotheBrexitvote,averagespendbyChinesevisitorshadbeenweakening:theaverageChinesevisitorcuttheirspendintheUKby14%in2015,to£2,075,weestimatefromOfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)data.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theperiodwhichthelatestofficialdatacover,theaveragespendfellfurther,by21%yearoveryear,to£1,649.

High-endbrands,suchasBurberry,Chanel,LouisVuittonandRolexhaveincreasedtheirUKpricestoreducethedifferencesbetweenregions.Chanelsaidthatitneeded“toreachconsistentpricelevels”betweendifferentpartsoftheworld.Thesemoveswilltemperanyincreasesinvisitsandspendthatarebeingdrivenbytheattractionofmoreaffordableluxurygoods.

Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.However,thesecondhalfof2017willlikelyseedemandingcomparativesforthesemetricsastheyannualizethepost-referendumboost,andthiswillmakesustainingrobustgrowthevenmoredifficult.

WhileChinesetouristsarespendingmoreinthewakeofthedepreciationofthepound,itislessapparentwhethervisitornumbershaveincreasedtoasimilarextent.

Page 4: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

4

December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TheUKwasthe13thmostpopulardestinationforChinesetravelers,accordingtooursurveyofChineseconsumersinApril2016.

IntroductionTheUK’svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnion(EU)promptedafallinthevalueofsterling,makingthecountryanevenmoreattractivedestinationfortouristsfromothercountries,andespeciallythosetouristswhoareenthusiasticshoppers—suchastheChinese.

Inthisreport,weroundupthelatestdataonvisitornumbersandspendingintheUK,withaparticularfocusontheimpactofthedepreciationoftheBritishpoundinthewakeoftheUK’svotetoleavetheEU.Webeginwithsometop-linefindingsonvisitornumbers.

HowPopularistheUKforChineseTravelers?Some325,000residentsofMainlandChinamadeatriptotheUKin2015,asignificantincreaseof39.5%overthenumberofvisitorsin2014.Yet,MainlandChinacomprisedjust3%ofoverseasvisitstotheUKin2015.

Visitornumbersturnednegativein2016,however.Inthefirsthalfof2016,thenumberofvisitorsfromMainlandChinatotheUKfellby13.5%,accordingtoouranalysisofONSdata—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sreferendumvotepromptedadepreciationofthepoundandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.

TheUKwasthe13thmostpopulardestinationforChinesetravelers,accordingtooursurveyofChineseconsumersinApril2016.TheUKrankedbehindEuropeanneighborssuchasFranceandGermany.Oursurveyfoundthat0.8%ofallChineseconsumerswesurveyedhadtakenatriptotheUKinthepastyear.Thefullreport,GlobalChineseShoppersCarrySpendingMomentumInto2016,canbefoundatbit.ly/FungChineseTourists2016.

Source:Shutterstock

Page 5: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

5

December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

SterlingDepreciationMakesUKMoreAttractiveThedepreciationoftheBritishpoundafterthecountryvotedtoleavetheEUmadevisitingandshoppingintheUKbettervalueforalmostalloverseastravelers.TheboostforChinesetravelershasbeenan8.7%appreciationintheirpurchasingpowerintheperiodafterthereferendum,comparedtothefirstsixmonthsof2016.

Inthefollowingchart,wetracktheshiftintheexchangerateoftheChineseyuan(RMB)toBritishpound(GBP)sofarin2016.

Figure1.RMBtoGBPExchangeRate,2016

ThroughNovember28Source:USForex

SpendingUp—DrivenbyLargerAverageBasketSizesInthissection,weroundupthelatestindicatorsonChinesetravelernumbersandtheirspending.OnetrendnotedbymultiplesourceswasthatGoldenWeek,aChineseholidayperiodinOctober,sawajumpinvisitornumbersandtheirspendingin2016.

Akeytakeawayfromthedatabelow,inourview,isthatthegrowthinspendingbyChinesetouristsintheUKhasinlargepartbeendrivenbyvisitorsbuyingmoreduringeachshoppingtrip.Itislessclearthattherehasbeenasimilarlylargeuptickinvisitornumbers.

Figuresfromtax-refundserviceGlobalBluesuggesthigheraveragespendvalueshavedrivenuptheamountpurchasedbytouristsintheUK:

• DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctoberthisyear,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKjumpedby58%yearoveryear;thenumberoftransactionsroseby30%,suggestingtheoverallspendingboostwasinlargepartduetohigheraveragebasketvalues.

0.100

0.105

0.110

0.115

0.120Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Average:0.1066

Average:0.1158

+8.7%

GoldenWeek,aChineseholidayperiodinOctober,sawajumpinvisitornumbersandtheirspendingin2016.

Page 6: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

• Chinesevisitorsuppedtheirtax-freespendintheUKby25%inSeptember.Inthesamemonth,touristsoverallgrewtheirspendintheUKby28%yearoveryear.

• SpendingbytouristsoverallintheUKinthefirsttenmonthsof2016wasup9%,buttheaveragetransactionvaluewasup10%,suggestingthatspendingisbeingdrivenbyhigherbasketvaluemorethanbyagreaternumberofshoppingvisits.

• InOctober,theUKdoubleditsshareofglobalChinesetax-freespending,to15%.

AccordingtoChina’slargestonlinetravelagency,Ctrip:

• ForGoldenWeek2016,theUKsawthebiggestyear-over-yearincreaseintravelbookingsofallcountries.ThenumberofChinesevisitorstotheUKbookingviaCtripjumpedby60%yearoveryear.

• Chinesetourists’interestintheUKremainedaftertheendofGoldenWeek,withdemandforvisitsaroundtheChristmas-shoppingperiodandtheJanuarysalesperiod.

• AmongChinesetravelers,theUKisapproachinglong-termfavoritedestinationssuchastheUS,ItalyandFrance,butisstillwellbehindlocaldestinationssuchasJapan,SouthKoreaandThailand.

• However,Ctripisafast-growing,online-onlyagent—forinstance,itstotalnetrevenuesgrewby75%yearoveryearinthethirdquarterof2016.Thismeansitsnumbersarenotrepresentativeoftheoveralltravel-bookingmarket.

Source:Shutterstock

VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinagrewby2.6%inthefirstquarterof2016andthenfell26.3%inthesecond

Page 7: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

7

December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

ThelatestofficialUKvisitorfiguresfromtheONSshowsomerecoveryintotalvisitornumbersfromJune—butthisbeganbeforethereferendumandthedepreciationofthepound.Moreover,specificdataforvisitorsfromChinafortheperiodafterthereferendumarenotyetpublished.

• VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinagrewby2.6%inthefirstquarterof2016,andthenfell26.3%inthesecondquarter.Thisaveragesafirst-halfdeclineof13.5%.TheONSpublishesitsfiguresforthethirdquarter,whichcoverstheperiodaftertheBrexitreferendumheld,onJanuary27.

• 2016figuresareagainstdemandingcomparativesfrom2015,whenvisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinasurged39.5%.

• MonthlyONSdataforvisitornumbersbybroadregionshowedarecoveryinJune,buttheEUreferendumresultwasannouncedonlyonJune24,whichsuggeststhatcannotbetheprincipalreasonfortheuplift.GrowthafterJunehasbeeninconsistentforvisitorsfromthe“Other”region,whichincludesChina.ThesolidincreaseinvisitornumbersinJulymayhavebeenashort-livedboostasaresultofthepound’sdepreciation.Wechartthesedatabelow.

Thelowgrowthininternationalvisitornumbersbolsterourperceptionthatincreasedtouristspendingisbeingdrivenmorebyanincreaseinper-personspendingthanbygrowthinvisitornumbers.

Figure2.MonthlyVisitorNumberstotheUK,YoY%Change

“Other”includesallregionsapartfromNorthAmericaandEurope.Source:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Thereissignificantscopeforabounceinaveragespendinginthesecondhalfof2016:theamounttypicallyspentintheUKbyaChinesetravelerfell14%in2015,to£2,075,weestimatefromONSdata.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theaveragespendfell21%to£1,649—althoughthismaybeskewedbycalendareffectswhichweighthigher-spendingvisitstothesecondhalf

1.32.1

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

Total "Other"Incl.China

EUReferendum

VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinasurged39.5%in2015.

Page 8: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Some61%ofChineseoverseasshoppersexpecttospendmoreonshoppingwhiletravelingoverseasinthenextyear,comparedtothepreviousyear.

oftheyear.Againstthefirsthalfof2015,spendingfellby19%inthefirsthalfof2016.

Ifthesecondhalfof2016sawadepreciation-inducedrecoveryto2014spendinglevels,thiswouldequatetoa45%jump,oranadditional£754pervisitor.

Figure3.UK:AverageSpendingperVisit,byMainlandChinaResidents(GBP)

AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

LuxuryBrandsHikePricesintheUKChineseTravelersLiketoShop

Shopping—andshoppingforluxurybrands—isanimportantpartofmanyChinesetourists’trips.ThiswasconfirmedbyourApril2016surveyofChineseconsumers.NotethatthefollowingmetricsarenotspecifictotheUK:

• Some61%ofChineseoverseasshoppersexpectedtospendmoreonshoppingwhiletravelingoverseasinthecomingyear,comparedtothepreviousyear;only17%expectedtospendlessonshoppingwhiletraveling.

• TheaverageChinesetravelerwillspendanestimated$1,783onretailpurchasespertripin2016,upfrom$1,678in2015.

1,768

1,4281,615

2,3042,403

2,075

1,649

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H16

(14)%

(21)%

Ifthesecondhalfof2016sawadepreciation-inducedrecoveryto2014spendinglevels,thiswouldequatetoa45%jump,oranadditional£754pervisitor.

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

• Duty-freestores(shoppedby32%ofChineseoverseasshoppers),largedepartmentstores(23%),specialtystores(13%)andoutletstores(11%)werethemostpopulartypesofstoresforoverseasshopping.

• Fragrances/beautyproducts(boughtby67%ofChineseoverseasshoppers),apparel,(63%),healthsupplements/vitamins(25%)andwatches(25%)werethemostpopularcategoriestobeboughtonoverseastrips.

Thefullreport,GlobalChineseShoppersCarrySpendingMomentumInto2016,canbefoundatbit.ly/FungChineseTourists2016.

Chinesetravelers’spendingissubstantialbecausetheyaretypicallyshoppingnotjustforthemselves.Onaverage,only51%oftheirretailspendisforthemselves,while32%isforgiftsforothersand19%isforresalebackinChina,accordingtoOliverWyman,amanagementconsultancy.IntheUK,theaveragespendongoodsforresalebyeachChinesetraveleris$299in2016.

Figure4.Per-PersonResellSpend,byChineseTravelers,2016

Source:OliverWyman

Tourists—Chineseorotherwise—areverysignificantconsumersofluxurybrandsintheUK:foreignersaccountedfor50%–55%ofallluxurygoodssalesinthecountryin2015,accordingtoExaneBNPParibas.

DepreciationPromptsUKPriceRises

Followingthedepreciationofthepound,travelershaveenjoyedcheaperpurchasesintheUK,andthishasboostedthepopularityinparticularofbuyingluxurygoodsinBritain.However,thisbenefitlookstobeshort-lived.Manyluxurybrandshaveraisedpricesinordertoreducethepricedifferentialwithothermarkets.

$360

$312 $299 $295$272

US France UK Korea Macau

Manyluxurybrandshaveraisedpricesinordertoreducethepricedifferentialwithothermarkets.

Page 10: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Chanelinstitutedapolicyofaligningitspricesindifferentmarketsin2015.Initially,thistooktheformofloweringpricesinAsia,butthedepreciationofthepoundhasmeantincreasesintheUK.ThecompanytoldTheTimesnewspaperinNovember:“Weneededtoadjustourpricesaccordinglyinordertoreachconsistentpricelevelsintheeurozoneandtherestoftheworld.”

AccordingtoouranalysisofdatacollectedbySpottedfashion.com,Chanelhikedpricesacross11linesinitsFlapBagandBoyBagrangesbyanaverage10.6%inNovember2016.ThiswasChanel’sthirdpriceriseof2016forclassicbags,accordingtoSpottedfashion.com,followinghikesinMarchandJuly.Welistselectedexampleitemsbelow.

Figure5.UK:SelectedChanelClassicBagsPrices

Nov2016 Pre-Nov2016 %Increase

ChanelMiniClassicFlapBag £2,100 £1,910 10.0%

ChanelSmallClassicFlapBag £3,840 £3,480 10.3%

ChanelMediumClassicFlapBag £3,990 £3,620 10.2%

ChanelJumboClassicFlapBag £4,450 £3,980 11.8%

Source:Spottedfashion

LouisVuittonhasalsopushedupUKpricesthreetimessofarin2016:inApril,AugustandOctober.AcrossnineLuisVuittonbaglinesrecordedbySpottedfashion.com,pricesincreasedbyanaverageof16.1%between2015andOctober2016.Welistafewexampleitemsbelow.

Figure6.UK:SelectedLouisVuittonClassicBagsPrices

Oct2016 2015 %Change

LouisVuittonEpiNeverfullMMBag £1,390 £1,160 19.8%

LouisVuittonNeverfullMMBag £880 £710 23.9%

LouisVuittonCapucinesMMBag £3,700 £3,150 17.4%LouisVuittonMonogramEmpreinteSpeedyBandouliere30Bag £1,850 £1,710 8.2%

Source:Spottedfashion

BurberryandCartieralsopushedupUKpricesbetweenMarchandNovember2016,accordingtoTheTimes.RolexincreasedUKpricesby10%inearlyNovember,accordingtotradewebsiteWatchPro;thesitesaidthiswasthefirstUKpriceriseinstitutedbyRolexsince2012.RichemontandLVMHincreasedUKwatchpricesinSeptember,accordingtoWatchPro.PatekPhilippeputitsUKpricesupby10%atthebeginningofAugust,itsUKManagingDirector,MarkHearn,toldtheNewYorkTimes.

Moreover,someindustryexpertshavespeculatedthatfurtherpriceriseswillbeseenfromaroundspring2017,whenhedgingcontractsstarttoexpireandthecostofimportedgoodsincreasesasaresult.Thesegeneralpricerisescouldbeseenacrossvariouscategories.

AcrossnineLuisVuittonbaglines,pricesincreasedbyanaverageof16.1%between2015andOctober2016.

RichemontandLVMHincreasedUKwatchpricesinSeptember.

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Medium-TermView:UKLagsinAttractingChineseTouristsBelow,weofferafive-yearviewofChinesevisitornumbersandspending.Overthefiveyearsthrough2015,annualvisitornumbersfromMainlandChinahaverisenby130%.VisitornumbersfromtheMainlandjumpedby39.5%in2015,whenChinesetravelernumberstoEuropeasawholeroseby40%,accordingtotheEuropeanTravelCommission.Slovakia,Iceland,MontenegroandSpainsawthebiggestincreasesin2015,comfortablyoutpacingeventheUK’sstrongperformance.

Figure7.UK:NumberofOverseasVisits,byChina/HongKongResidents(Thou.)

*AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS

SpendingbyvisitorsfromMainlandChinaintheUKroseby20.5%in2015,wellbelowtheriseinvisitornumbers.Asnotedearlier,per-personspendfellandthisprovidesundemandingcomparativesforgrowthinspending-per-visitorin2016.

However,AccordingtotheONS,MainlandChinesevisitorscuttheirtotalspendingintheUKby13.6%inthefirstquarterof2016andby40.1%inthesecondquarter(latest).

Figure8.UK:SpendingWhileonTrips,byChina/HongKongResidents

*AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS

141 181 215 237 233325

131149 135

163 159

204

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MainlandChina* HongKong

249 259 347546 559

674129 176186

248 247266

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

MainlandChina* HongKong

VisitornumberstotheUKfromtheMainlandjumpedby39.5%in2015,whenChinesetravelernumberstoEuropeasawholeroseby40%.

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TheUKcapturedjusta4.1%shareofthetotal7.98milliontripsfromChinatoWesternandNorthernEuroperecordedbytheEuropeanTravelCommissionin2015.ThissuggestsmajoropportunitiesfortheUKtowinalargershareofChinesetrips.

The325,000visitorsin2015isashadowofthe2.2millionthatFranceattractedinthesameyear.Italy,SwitzerlandandGermanywerealsomorepopularthantheUKforChinesetouristsinthefirsthalfof2015(latest),accordingtoTravelChinaGuide.

Figure9.NumberofVisitorsfromMainlandChina,SelectedCountries/Territories

CountryorTerritory 2014(Mil.) 2015(Mil.) %Change

HongKong 47.25 45.84 -3.0

Macau 21.25 20.40 -4.0

Thailand 4.64 7.93 71.1

SouthKorea 6.13 5.98 -2.3

Japan 2.41 4.99 107.3

Taiwan 3.99 4.18 4.9

USA 2.19 2.27 3.7

France N/A 2.2 N/A

Australia* 0.74 0.90 21.7

UK 0.23 0.33 39.5

*YearsendSeptember.Source:Nationalstatisticsoffices/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Accordingtoseparatedataonthenumberoftripsorganizedbytravelagencies,theUKrankedasthe16th-most-populardestinationforChinesetouristsin2015.NotethatthisseverelyunderrepresentstripstolocalterritoriessuchasHongKong,whererelativelyfewvisitorswillrelyontravelagencies.

Figure10.NumberofVisitsfromMainlandChinaOrganizedThroughTravelAgencies,2015(Mil.)

CountryorTerritory 2015(Mil.)

1 Thailand 7.37

2 HongKong 6.67

3 Korea 4.85

4 Japan 4.59

5 TaiwanRegion 3.98

6 MacaoRegion 3.47

7 Singapore 1.65

TheUKcapturedjusta4.1%shareofthetotal7.98milliontripsfromChinatoWesternandNorthernEuropein2015.

TheUKrankedasthe16th-most-populardestinationforChinesetouristsin2015.

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

CountryorTerritory 2015(Mil.)

8 Malaysia 1.16

9 Vietnam 1.13

10 France 1.01

11 Indonesia 0.99

12 Italy 0.83

13 Germany 0.74

14 Switzerland 0.72

15 Russia 0.62

16 UnitedKingdom 0.42

17 Philippines 0.31

18 Netherlands 0.20

19 India 0.17

20 Spain 0.14

Source:ChinaNationalTourismAdministration

OutlookTo2017:PriceHarmonizationCouldStymieSustainedTravelerBoostThepost-referendumboostinspendingbytourists,includingChinesetourists,appearstohavebeendrivensubstantiallybyincreasedspendpertourist.Itislessclearthattherehasbeenacomparablystrongsurgeintotaltravelernumbers,althoughweawaitofficialfiguresrelatingtoChinesetravelernumberssincethepound’sdepreciation.

ThemovesbyluxurybrandstoraiseUKpricescouldwellputahalttoanygrowthinChinesetravelernumbersandtheirspendingintheUK,whichhasbeendrivenbytheappealoflow-cost,high-endshopping.Indeed,anyupliftinvisitornumbersresultingfromvisitorsflockingtobuyluxurygoodsmaywellhavepeaked.

TheseluxurypricerisesdonotimplythereisnofinancialbenefittoChinesetravelerstovisittheUK:thedepreciationofthepoundmeanstheirin-countrytransportationandhotelcosts,leisurespendingandnonluxuryretailpurchaseswillstillbelowerthantheywouldhavebeen.

Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.However,thesecondhalfof2017willlikelyseedemandingcomparativesforthesemetricsastheyannualizethepost-referendumboost.Thiswillmakesustainingrobustgrowthevenmoredifficult.

Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.

Page 14: Chinese Tourists in the UK December 28 2016 · 12/28/2016  · One of our key findings is that, while Chinese tourists are spending more in the wake of the depreciation of the pound,

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December28,2016

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

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