chinese tourists in the uk december 28 2016 · 12/28/2016 · one of our key findings is that,...
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December28,2016
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
1) ThenumberofMainlandChineseresidentsvisitingtheUKfellby13.5%inthefirsthalfof2016—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sBrexitreferendumvoteledtheBritishpoundtodepreciateandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.WeawaitdataonvisitornumbersfromChinasincethisdepreciation.
2) Tax-freespendingbytouristsintheUKjumpedfollowingthepound’sdepreciation.DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctober,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKclimbedby58%yearoveryear.
3) Thebounceinspendingfollowedaperiodofweakening:theaverageChinesevisitorcuttheirspendintheUKby14%yearoveryearin2015.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theaveragespendfellfurther,by21%yearoveryear,to£1,649.
4) High-endbrands,suchasLouisVuittonandChanel,haveraisedtheirUKpricestoreducedifferencestopriceselsewhereintheworld.Thesemoveswilltemperanygrowthintouristspendingthatisbeingdrivenbytheattractionofmoreaffordableluxurygoods.Anyupliftinvisitornumbersresultingfromvisitorsflockingtobuyluxurygoodsmaywellhavepeaked.
D e b o r a h W e i n s w i g
M a n a g i n g D i r e c t o r , F u n g G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y
d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7
H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9 C N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6
Deep Dive: Chinese
Tourists in the UK—Time is
Running Out on Cheaper Luxury
Shopping
2
December28,2016
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Contents
ExecutiveSummary.............................................................................................................................3
Introduction........................................................................................................................................4
HowPopularistheUKforChineseTravelers?.....................................................................................4
SterlingDepreciationMakesUKMoreAttractive................................................................................4
Spendingup—DrivenbyLargerAverageBasketSizes............................................................................5
LuxuryBrandsHikePricesintheUK....................................................................................................8
ChineseTravelersLiketoShop......................................................................................................8
DepreciationPromptsUKPriceRises............................................................................................9
Medium-TermView:UKLagsinAttractingChineseTourists..............................................................11
Outlookto2017:PriceHarmonizationCouldStymieSustainedTravelerBoost..................................13
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December28,2016
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
ExecutiveSummarySome325,000visitorscametotheUKfromMainlandChinain2015,asignificantincreaseof39.5%overthenumberofvisitorsin2014.Officialfiguresshowthatthisnumberhasdeclined13.5%inthefirsthalfof2016—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sBrexitreferendumvoteledtothedepreciationofthepoundandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.
Oneofourkeyfindingsisthat,whileChinesetouristsarespendingmoreinthewakeofthedepreciationofthepound,itislessapparentwhethervisitornumbershaveincreasedtoasimilarextent:
• Chinesevisitorsincreasedtheirtax-freespendintheUKby25%inSeptember,accordingtotax-refundproviderGlobalBlue.DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctober,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKjumpedby58%yearoveryear,whilethenumberoftransactionsroseby30%,suggestingtheoverallspendingboostwasinlargepartduetohigheraveragebasketvalues.
• OfficialmonthlydataforvisitornumbersbybroadregionshowedarecoveryinJune,butthereferendumresultwasannouncedonlyonJune24,whichsuggeststhatcannotbetheprincipalreasonfortheuplift.TotaloverseasvisitorgrowthstrengthenedfurtherinJuly,buthasgenerallybeeninconsistentsincethereferendum.
• PriortotheBrexitvote,averagespendbyChinesevisitorshadbeenweakening:theaverageChinesevisitorcuttheirspendintheUKby14%in2015,to£2,075,weestimatefromOfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)data.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theperiodwhichthelatestofficialdatacover,theaveragespendfellfurther,by21%yearoveryear,to£1,649.
High-endbrands,suchasBurberry,Chanel,LouisVuittonandRolexhaveincreasedtheirUKpricestoreducethedifferencesbetweenregions.Chanelsaidthatitneeded“toreachconsistentpricelevels”betweendifferentpartsoftheworld.Thesemoveswilltemperanyincreasesinvisitsandspendthatarebeingdrivenbytheattractionofmoreaffordableluxurygoods.
Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.However,thesecondhalfof2017willlikelyseedemandingcomparativesforthesemetricsastheyannualizethepost-referendumboost,andthiswillmakesustainingrobustgrowthevenmoredifficult.
WhileChinesetouristsarespendingmoreinthewakeofthedepreciationofthepound,itislessapparentwhethervisitornumbershaveincreasedtoasimilarextent.
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December28,2016
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
TheUKwasthe13thmostpopulardestinationforChinesetravelers,accordingtooursurveyofChineseconsumersinApril2016.
IntroductionTheUK’svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnion(EU)promptedafallinthevalueofsterling,makingthecountryanevenmoreattractivedestinationfortouristsfromothercountries,andespeciallythosetouristswhoareenthusiasticshoppers—suchastheChinese.
Inthisreport,weroundupthelatestdataonvisitornumbersandspendingintheUK,withaparticularfocusontheimpactofthedepreciationoftheBritishpoundinthewakeoftheUK’svotetoleavetheEU.Webeginwithsometop-linefindingsonvisitornumbers.
HowPopularistheUKforChineseTravelers?Some325,000residentsofMainlandChinamadeatriptotheUKin2015,asignificantincreaseof39.5%overthenumberofvisitorsin2014.Yet,MainlandChinacomprisedjust3%ofoverseasvisitstotheUKin2015.
Visitornumbersturnednegativein2016,however.Inthefirsthalfof2016,thenumberofvisitorsfromMainlandChinatotheUKfellby13.5%,accordingtoouranalysisofONSdata—butthiswasbeforetheUK’sreferendumvotepromptedadepreciationofthepoundandsomadetheUKamoreappealingdestinationforshoppersfromoverseas.
TheUKwasthe13thmostpopulardestinationforChinesetravelers,accordingtooursurveyofChineseconsumersinApril2016.TheUKrankedbehindEuropeanneighborssuchasFranceandGermany.Oursurveyfoundthat0.8%ofallChineseconsumerswesurveyedhadtakenatriptotheUKinthepastyear.Thefullreport,GlobalChineseShoppersCarrySpendingMomentumInto2016,canbefoundatbit.ly/FungChineseTourists2016.
Source:Shutterstock
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
SterlingDepreciationMakesUKMoreAttractiveThedepreciationoftheBritishpoundafterthecountryvotedtoleavetheEUmadevisitingandshoppingintheUKbettervalueforalmostalloverseastravelers.TheboostforChinesetravelershasbeenan8.7%appreciationintheirpurchasingpowerintheperiodafterthereferendum,comparedtothefirstsixmonthsof2016.
Inthefollowingchart,wetracktheshiftintheexchangerateoftheChineseyuan(RMB)toBritishpound(GBP)sofarin2016.
Figure1.RMBtoGBPExchangeRate,2016
ThroughNovember28Source:USForex
SpendingUp—DrivenbyLargerAverageBasketSizesInthissection,weroundupthelatestindicatorsonChinesetravelernumbersandtheirspending.OnetrendnotedbymultiplesourceswasthatGoldenWeek,aChineseholidayperiodinOctober,sawajumpinvisitornumbersandtheirspendingin2016.
Akeytakeawayfromthedatabelow,inourview,isthatthegrowthinspendingbyChinesetouristsintheUKhasinlargepartbeendrivenbyvisitorsbuyingmoreduringeachshoppingtrip.Itislessclearthattherehasbeenasimilarlylargeuptickinvisitornumbers.
Figuresfromtax-refundserviceGlobalBluesuggesthigheraveragespendvalueshavedrivenuptheamountpurchasedbytouristsintheUK:
• DuringChina’sGoldenWeekholidayperiodinOctoberthisyear,Chinesetax-freespendingintheUKjumpedby58%yearoveryear;thenumberoftransactionsroseby30%,suggestingtheoverallspendingboostwasinlargepartduetohigheraveragebasketvalues.
0.100
0.105
0.110
0.115
0.120Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Average:0.1066
Average:0.1158
+8.7%
GoldenWeek,aChineseholidayperiodinOctober,sawajumpinvisitornumbersandtheirspendingin2016.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
• Chinesevisitorsuppedtheirtax-freespendintheUKby25%inSeptember.Inthesamemonth,touristsoverallgrewtheirspendintheUKby28%yearoveryear.
• SpendingbytouristsoverallintheUKinthefirsttenmonthsof2016wasup9%,buttheaveragetransactionvaluewasup10%,suggestingthatspendingisbeingdrivenbyhigherbasketvaluemorethanbyagreaternumberofshoppingvisits.
• InOctober,theUKdoubleditsshareofglobalChinesetax-freespending,to15%.
AccordingtoChina’slargestonlinetravelagency,Ctrip:
• ForGoldenWeek2016,theUKsawthebiggestyear-over-yearincreaseintravelbookingsofallcountries.ThenumberofChinesevisitorstotheUKbookingviaCtripjumpedby60%yearoveryear.
• Chinesetourists’interestintheUKremainedaftertheendofGoldenWeek,withdemandforvisitsaroundtheChristmas-shoppingperiodandtheJanuarysalesperiod.
• AmongChinesetravelers,theUKisapproachinglong-termfavoritedestinationssuchastheUS,ItalyandFrance,butisstillwellbehindlocaldestinationssuchasJapan,SouthKoreaandThailand.
• However,Ctripisafast-growing,online-onlyagent—forinstance,itstotalnetrevenuesgrewby75%yearoveryearinthethirdquarterof2016.Thismeansitsnumbersarenotrepresentativeoftheoveralltravel-bookingmarket.
Source:Shutterstock
VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinagrewby2.6%inthefirstquarterof2016andthenfell26.3%inthesecond
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
ThelatestofficialUKvisitorfiguresfromtheONSshowsomerecoveryintotalvisitornumbersfromJune—butthisbeganbeforethereferendumandthedepreciationofthepound.Moreover,specificdataforvisitorsfromChinafortheperiodafterthereferendumarenotyetpublished.
• VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinagrewby2.6%inthefirstquarterof2016,andthenfell26.3%inthesecondquarter.Thisaveragesafirst-halfdeclineof13.5%.TheONSpublishesitsfiguresforthethirdquarter,whichcoverstheperiodaftertheBrexitreferendumheld,onJanuary27.
• 2016figuresareagainstdemandingcomparativesfrom2015,whenvisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinasurged39.5%.
• MonthlyONSdataforvisitornumbersbybroadregionshowedarecoveryinJune,buttheEUreferendumresultwasannouncedonlyonJune24,whichsuggeststhatcannotbetheprincipalreasonfortheuplift.GrowthafterJunehasbeeninconsistentforvisitorsfromthe“Other”region,whichincludesChina.ThesolidincreaseinvisitornumbersinJulymayhavebeenashort-livedboostasaresultofthepound’sdepreciation.Wechartthesedatabelow.
Thelowgrowthininternationalvisitornumbersbolsterourperceptionthatincreasedtouristspendingisbeingdrivenmorebyanincreaseinper-personspendingthanbygrowthinvisitornumbers.
Figure2.MonthlyVisitorNumberstotheUK,YoY%Change
“Other”includesallregionsapartfromNorthAmericaandEurope.Source:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
Thereissignificantscopeforabounceinaveragespendinginthesecondhalfof2016:theamounttypicallyspentintheUKbyaChinesetravelerfell14%in2015,to£2,075,weestimatefromONSdata.Inthefirsthalfof2016,theaveragespendfell21%to£1,649—althoughthismaybeskewedbycalendareffectswhichweighthigher-spendingvisitstothesecondhalf
1.32.1
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
Total "Other"Incl.China
EUReferendum
VisitornumberstotheUKfromMainlandChinasurged39.5%in2015.
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December28,2016
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Some61%ofChineseoverseasshoppersexpecttospendmoreonshoppingwhiletravelingoverseasinthenextyear,comparedtothepreviousyear.
oftheyear.Againstthefirsthalfof2015,spendingfellby19%inthefirsthalfof2016.
Ifthesecondhalfof2016sawadepreciation-inducedrecoveryto2014spendinglevels,thiswouldequatetoa45%jump,oranadditional£754pervisitor.
Figure3.UK:AverageSpendingperVisit,byMainlandChinaResidents(GBP)
AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
LuxuryBrandsHikePricesintheUKChineseTravelersLiketoShop
Shopping—andshoppingforluxurybrands—isanimportantpartofmanyChinesetourists’trips.ThiswasconfirmedbyourApril2016surveyofChineseconsumers.NotethatthefollowingmetricsarenotspecifictotheUK:
• Some61%ofChineseoverseasshoppersexpectedtospendmoreonshoppingwhiletravelingoverseasinthecomingyear,comparedtothepreviousyear;only17%expectedtospendlessonshoppingwhiletraveling.
• TheaverageChinesetravelerwillspendanestimated$1,783onretailpurchasespertripin2016,upfrom$1,678in2015.
1,768
1,4281,615
2,3042,403
2,075
1,649
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H16
(14)%
(21)%
Ifthesecondhalfof2016sawadepreciation-inducedrecoveryto2014spendinglevels,thiswouldequatetoa45%jump,oranadditional£754pervisitor.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
• Duty-freestores(shoppedby32%ofChineseoverseasshoppers),largedepartmentstores(23%),specialtystores(13%)andoutletstores(11%)werethemostpopulartypesofstoresforoverseasshopping.
• Fragrances/beautyproducts(boughtby67%ofChineseoverseasshoppers),apparel,(63%),healthsupplements/vitamins(25%)andwatches(25%)werethemostpopularcategoriestobeboughtonoverseastrips.
Thefullreport,GlobalChineseShoppersCarrySpendingMomentumInto2016,canbefoundatbit.ly/FungChineseTourists2016.
Chinesetravelers’spendingissubstantialbecausetheyaretypicallyshoppingnotjustforthemselves.Onaverage,only51%oftheirretailspendisforthemselves,while32%isforgiftsforothersand19%isforresalebackinChina,accordingtoOliverWyman,amanagementconsultancy.IntheUK,theaveragespendongoodsforresalebyeachChinesetraveleris$299in2016.
Figure4.Per-PersonResellSpend,byChineseTravelers,2016
Source:OliverWyman
Tourists—Chineseorotherwise—areverysignificantconsumersofluxurybrandsintheUK:foreignersaccountedfor50%–55%ofallluxurygoodssalesinthecountryin2015,accordingtoExaneBNPParibas.
DepreciationPromptsUKPriceRises
Followingthedepreciationofthepound,travelershaveenjoyedcheaperpurchasesintheUK,andthishasboostedthepopularityinparticularofbuyingluxurygoodsinBritain.However,thisbenefitlookstobeshort-lived.Manyluxurybrandshaveraisedpricesinordertoreducethepricedifferentialwithothermarkets.
$360
$312 $299 $295$272
US France UK Korea Macau
Manyluxurybrandshaveraisedpricesinordertoreducethepricedifferentialwithothermarkets.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Chanelinstitutedapolicyofaligningitspricesindifferentmarketsin2015.Initially,thistooktheformofloweringpricesinAsia,butthedepreciationofthepoundhasmeantincreasesintheUK.ThecompanytoldTheTimesnewspaperinNovember:“Weneededtoadjustourpricesaccordinglyinordertoreachconsistentpricelevelsintheeurozoneandtherestoftheworld.”
AccordingtoouranalysisofdatacollectedbySpottedfashion.com,Chanelhikedpricesacross11linesinitsFlapBagandBoyBagrangesbyanaverage10.6%inNovember2016.ThiswasChanel’sthirdpriceriseof2016forclassicbags,accordingtoSpottedfashion.com,followinghikesinMarchandJuly.Welistselectedexampleitemsbelow.
Figure5.UK:SelectedChanelClassicBagsPrices
Nov2016 Pre-Nov2016 %Increase
ChanelMiniClassicFlapBag £2,100 £1,910 10.0%
ChanelSmallClassicFlapBag £3,840 £3,480 10.3%
ChanelMediumClassicFlapBag £3,990 £3,620 10.2%
ChanelJumboClassicFlapBag £4,450 £3,980 11.8%
Source:Spottedfashion
LouisVuittonhasalsopushedupUKpricesthreetimessofarin2016:inApril,AugustandOctober.AcrossnineLuisVuittonbaglinesrecordedbySpottedfashion.com,pricesincreasedbyanaverageof16.1%between2015andOctober2016.Welistafewexampleitemsbelow.
Figure6.UK:SelectedLouisVuittonClassicBagsPrices
Oct2016 2015 %Change
LouisVuittonEpiNeverfullMMBag £1,390 £1,160 19.8%
LouisVuittonNeverfullMMBag £880 £710 23.9%
LouisVuittonCapucinesMMBag £3,700 £3,150 17.4%LouisVuittonMonogramEmpreinteSpeedyBandouliere30Bag £1,850 £1,710 8.2%
Source:Spottedfashion
BurberryandCartieralsopushedupUKpricesbetweenMarchandNovember2016,accordingtoTheTimes.RolexincreasedUKpricesby10%inearlyNovember,accordingtotradewebsiteWatchPro;thesitesaidthiswasthefirstUKpriceriseinstitutedbyRolexsince2012.RichemontandLVMHincreasedUKwatchpricesinSeptember,accordingtoWatchPro.PatekPhilippeputitsUKpricesupby10%atthebeginningofAugust,itsUKManagingDirector,MarkHearn,toldtheNewYorkTimes.
Moreover,someindustryexpertshavespeculatedthatfurtherpriceriseswillbeseenfromaroundspring2017,whenhedgingcontractsstarttoexpireandthecostofimportedgoodsincreasesasaresult.Thesegeneralpricerisescouldbeseenacrossvariouscategories.
AcrossnineLuisVuittonbaglines,pricesincreasedbyanaverageof16.1%between2015andOctober2016.
RichemontandLVMHincreasedUKwatchpricesinSeptember.
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Medium-TermView:UKLagsinAttractingChineseTouristsBelow,weofferafive-yearviewofChinesevisitornumbersandspending.Overthefiveyearsthrough2015,annualvisitornumbersfromMainlandChinahaverisenby130%.VisitornumbersfromtheMainlandjumpedby39.5%in2015,whenChinesetravelernumberstoEuropeasawholeroseby40%,accordingtotheEuropeanTravelCommission.Slovakia,Iceland,MontenegroandSpainsawthebiggestincreasesin2015,comfortablyoutpacingeventheUK’sstrongperformance.
Figure7.UK:NumberofOverseasVisits,byChina/HongKongResidents(Thou.)
*AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS
SpendingbyvisitorsfromMainlandChinaintheUKroseby20.5%in2015,wellbelowtheriseinvisitornumbers.Asnotedearlier,per-personspendfellandthisprovidesundemandingcomparativesforgrowthinspending-per-visitorin2016.
However,AccordingtotheONS,MainlandChinesevisitorscuttheirtotalspendingintheUKby13.6%inthefirstquarterof2016andby40.1%inthesecondquarter(latest).
Figure8.UK:SpendingWhileonTrips,byChina/HongKongResidents
*AllChinaexceptHongKongSource:ONS
141 181 215 237 233325
131149 135
163 159
204
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MainlandChina* HongKong
249 259 347546 559
674129 176186
248 247266
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MainlandChina* HongKong
VisitornumberstotheUKfromtheMainlandjumpedby39.5%in2015,whenChinesetravelernumberstoEuropeasawholeroseby40%.
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TheUKcapturedjusta4.1%shareofthetotal7.98milliontripsfromChinatoWesternandNorthernEuroperecordedbytheEuropeanTravelCommissionin2015.ThissuggestsmajoropportunitiesfortheUKtowinalargershareofChinesetrips.
The325,000visitorsin2015isashadowofthe2.2millionthatFranceattractedinthesameyear.Italy,SwitzerlandandGermanywerealsomorepopularthantheUKforChinesetouristsinthefirsthalfof2015(latest),accordingtoTravelChinaGuide.
Figure9.NumberofVisitorsfromMainlandChina,SelectedCountries/Territories
CountryorTerritory 2014(Mil.) 2015(Mil.) %Change
HongKong 47.25 45.84 -3.0
Macau 21.25 20.40 -4.0
Thailand 4.64 7.93 71.1
SouthKorea 6.13 5.98 -2.3
Japan 2.41 4.99 107.3
Taiwan 3.99 4.18 4.9
USA 2.19 2.27 3.7
France N/A 2.2 N/A
Australia* 0.74 0.90 21.7
UK 0.23 0.33 39.5
*YearsendSeptember.Source:Nationalstatisticsoffices/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
Accordingtoseparatedataonthenumberoftripsorganizedbytravelagencies,theUKrankedasthe16th-most-populardestinationforChinesetouristsin2015.NotethatthisseverelyunderrepresentstripstolocalterritoriessuchasHongKong,whererelativelyfewvisitorswillrelyontravelagencies.
Figure10.NumberofVisitsfromMainlandChinaOrganizedThroughTravelAgencies,2015(Mil.)
CountryorTerritory 2015(Mil.)
1 Thailand 7.37
2 HongKong 6.67
3 Korea 4.85
4 Japan 4.59
5 TaiwanRegion 3.98
6 MacaoRegion 3.47
7 Singapore 1.65
TheUKcapturedjusta4.1%shareofthetotal7.98milliontripsfromChinatoWesternandNorthernEuropein2015.
TheUKrankedasthe16th-most-populardestinationforChinesetouristsin2015.
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CountryorTerritory 2015(Mil.)
8 Malaysia 1.16
9 Vietnam 1.13
10 France 1.01
11 Indonesia 0.99
12 Italy 0.83
13 Germany 0.74
14 Switzerland 0.72
15 Russia 0.62
16 UnitedKingdom 0.42
17 Philippines 0.31
18 Netherlands 0.20
19 India 0.17
20 Spain 0.14
Source:ChinaNationalTourismAdministration
OutlookTo2017:PriceHarmonizationCouldStymieSustainedTravelerBoostThepost-referendumboostinspendingbytourists,includingChinesetourists,appearstohavebeendrivensubstantiallybyincreasedspendpertourist.Itislessclearthattherehasbeenacomparablystrongsurgeintotaltravelernumbers,althoughweawaitofficialfiguresrelatingtoChinesetravelernumberssincethepound’sdepreciation.
ThemovesbyluxurybrandstoraiseUKpricescouldwellputahalttoanygrowthinChinesetravelernumbersandtheirspendingintheUK,whichhasbeendrivenbytheappealoflow-cost,high-endshopping.Indeed,anyupliftinvisitornumbersresultingfromvisitorsflockingtobuyluxurygoodsmaywellhavepeaked.
TheseluxurypricerisesdonotimplythereisnofinancialbenefittoChinesetravelerstovisittheUK:thedepreciationofthepoundmeanstheirin-countrytransportationandhotelcosts,leisurespendingandnonluxuryretailpurchaseswillstillbelowerthantheywouldhavebeen.
Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.However,thesecondhalfof2017willlikelyseedemandingcomparativesforthesemetricsastheyannualizethepost-referendumboost.Thiswillmakesustainingrobustgrowthevenmoredifficult.
Weexpectsolidyear-over-yeargrowthinChinesetravelernumberstocontinueinto2017.
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December28,2016
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst
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