Download - Getting Down to Business Jeff Duncan Barry Nangle Mining business data from a registration database
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Getting Down to Business
Jeff DuncanBarry Nangle
Mining business data from a registration database
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Vital Records Revenue Sources
General Fund43%
VR Fees45%
VSCP10%
Other Federal2%
General Fund20%
VR Fees70%
VSCP9%
Other Federal1%
FY 1994 FY 2004
*Fee increase, 7/1/2003
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OLIVER
OLIVER—Online Issuing of Vital Event Records• Links State Office, 12 Local registrars and 5
satellites• Combines front office (certification) with back
office (statistics)• Counter, Mail and Internet requests• 1,056,925 records issued from 9/1/1999 to
4/15/2004• 482,475 unique requests, excluding multiple
certificates
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Certificate Sales by Event and Issuing Office September, 1999 – April, 2004
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Local OVRS
Issuing Office
Nu
mb
er
of
rec
ord
s s
old
Deaths
Births
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Who Is Buying Birth Certificates?
•50% of birth certificates sold within 10 years of birth
•Almost ¼ of all birth certificates sold within 5 years of birth
Birth Certificates Issued by Age1999-2004
< 10 years50%
Over 21 years35%
<1 year21%
1-5 years23%
11-21 years15%
6-10 years6%
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Certificates Issued to Y2K Birth Cohort
•20% were issued birth certificates within 2 months after birth
•40% were issued in first year after birth
•Currently, 53% of Y2K births have been issued birth certificates
Issued
Not issued
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
Month after Birth
Y2K Birth Cohort: Percent Issued Birth Certificate by Month After Birth
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Social Marketing Implications of Birth Certificate Sales
Parents of 25,000 infants and toddlers contact us for Birth Certificates annually
Child Health programs see a “missed opportunity” for outreach to families
Applications for Integrated Information Systems • Potential to reach infants lost to follow-up for
newborn hearing screening• Immunization reminders
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Birth Certificate Revenue by Number of BirthsFY 1998 – FY 2003
y = 36.554x - 1E+06
R2 = 0.8786
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
44000 45000 46000 47000 48000 49000 50000 51000 52000
Births
Re
ve
nu
e (
$)
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Effects of Fee Increase—Birth Certificates
Fee Increase
•July 1, 2003
•Births went from $12 / $5 to $15 / $8
•Initial Copies: 5% decrease in number sold
•Additional copies: 20% decrease in number sold
•Revenue increased 21%
Birth Certificates sold by Quarter, FY99-FY04
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Quarter
Num
ber s
old
Initial copies
Additional Copies
fee increase
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Time Series Analysis
Multiplicative Decomposition using 5 years of sales data
Yt = Tt x Ct x St x It
Quarterly Seasonal Factors
Quarter St
Jul-Sep 1.05
Oct-Dec 0.81
Jan-Mar 1.08
Apr-June 1.06
Birth Certificate Initial Copies Sold by Quarter, 2003
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Q1-2003 Q2-2003 Q3-2003 Q4-2003
Quarter
B.C
. In
itia
l C
op
ies
1.05
0.81
1.08 1.06
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Deseasonalized Trend
Deseasonalized trend line (through June, 2003):
Yt = 4544 + 49t
Deseasonalized Trend vs. Actual Copies Sold, 1999-2004
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
1 6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
Time Period (month)
Nu
mb
er
so
ld
Tt
actual
deseasonalized
fee increase
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Other facts
After the fee increase:- The average number of birth certificates per request decreased
from 1.66 to 1.45
- The average number of death certificates per request stayed the same at 5.7
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Conclusions
New births drive new business Interaction with parents presents a significant public
health opportunity Fee increase hurt sales but not revenues Use seasonality to adjust expectations, especially
after a fee increase