getting down to business jeff duncan barry nangle mining business data from a registration database
TRANSCRIPT
Getting Down to Business
Jeff DuncanBarry Nangle
Mining business data from a registration database
Vital Records Revenue Sources
General Fund43%
VR Fees45%
VSCP10%
Other Federal2%
General Fund20%
VR Fees70%
VSCP9%
Other Federal1%
FY 1994 FY 2004
*Fee increase, 7/1/2003
OLIVER
OLIVER—Online Issuing of Vital Event Records• Links State Office, 12 Local registrars and 5
satellites• Combines front office (certification) with back
office (statistics)• Counter, Mail and Internet requests• 1,056,925 records issued from 9/1/1999 to
4/15/2004• 482,475 unique requests, excluding multiple
certificates
Certificate Sales by Event and Issuing Office September, 1999 – April, 2004
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Local OVRS
Issuing Office
Nu
mb
er
of
rec
ord
s s
old
Deaths
Births
Who Is Buying Birth Certificates?
•50% of birth certificates sold within 10 years of birth
•Almost ¼ of all birth certificates sold within 5 years of birth
Birth Certificates Issued by Age1999-2004
< 10 years50%
Over 21 years35%
<1 year21%
1-5 years23%
11-21 years15%
6-10 years6%
Certificates Issued to Y2K Birth Cohort
•20% were issued birth certificates within 2 months after birth
•40% were issued in first year after birth
•Currently, 53% of Y2K births have been issued birth certificates
Issued
Not issued
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
Month after Birth
Y2K Birth Cohort: Percent Issued Birth Certificate by Month After Birth
Social Marketing Implications of Birth Certificate Sales
Parents of 25,000 infants and toddlers contact us for Birth Certificates annually
Child Health programs see a “missed opportunity” for outreach to families
Applications for Integrated Information Systems • Potential to reach infants lost to follow-up for
newborn hearing screening• Immunization reminders
Birth Certificate Revenue by Number of BirthsFY 1998 – FY 2003
y = 36.554x - 1E+06
R2 = 0.8786
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
44000 45000 46000 47000 48000 49000 50000 51000 52000
Births
Re
ve
nu
e (
$)
Effects of Fee Increase—Birth Certificates
Fee Increase
•July 1, 2003
•Births went from $12 / $5 to $15 / $8
•Initial Copies: 5% decrease in number sold
•Additional copies: 20% decrease in number sold
•Revenue increased 21%
Birth Certificates sold by Quarter, FY99-FY04
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Quarter
Num
ber s
old
Initial copies
Additional Copies
fee increase
Time Series Analysis
Multiplicative Decomposition using 5 years of sales data
Yt = Tt x Ct x St x It
Quarterly Seasonal Factors
Quarter St
Jul-Sep 1.05
Oct-Dec 0.81
Jan-Mar 1.08
Apr-June 1.06
Birth Certificate Initial Copies Sold by Quarter, 2003
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Q1-2003 Q2-2003 Q3-2003 Q4-2003
Quarter
B.C
. In
itia
l C
op
ies
1.05
0.81
1.08 1.06
Deseasonalized Trend
Deseasonalized trend line (through June, 2003):
Yt = 4544 + 49t
Deseasonalized Trend vs. Actual Copies Sold, 1999-2004
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
1 6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
Time Period (month)
Nu
mb
er
so
ld
Tt
actual
deseasonalized
fee increase
Other facts
After the fee increase:- The average number of birth certificates per request decreased
from 1.66 to 1.45
- The average number of death certificates per request stayed the same at 5.7
Conclusions
New births drive new business Interaction with parents presents a significant public
health opportunity Fee increase hurt sales but not revenues Use seasonality to adjust expectations, especially
after a fee increase