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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon and its role in future carbon emissions
D CarlsonDirector, WCRP
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Observations
Models
CMIP
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
Accumulated for 1000’s of
years
No decay while frozen
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
0-3 m
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
0-3 m
1,035 + 150 GtC!
Hugelius et al. 2013, ESSD
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
0-3 m
1,035 + 150 GtC!
(1,035 GtC = 485 ppm in atmosphere)
Hugelius et al. 2013, ESSD
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Thermokarst lakes (TKL), Alaska
Permafrost land morphology
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Alaska: Active Layer Detachment (ALD); Surface Erosion (GTK);
Retrogressive Thaw Slump (RTS)
Permafrost land morphology
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Alaska: Active Layer Detachment (ALD); Surface Erosion (GTK);
Retrogressive Thaw Slump (RTS)
Permafrost land morphology
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature Drill
3 m
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
(1,035 GtC = 485 ppm in atmosphere)
• Where will this carbon go? • As CO2 or as CH4? • How much, how fast?
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schuur et al. 2015
Nature
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schuur et al. 2015
Nature
Dry & aerobic leads to
CO2
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schuur et al. 2015
Nature
Wet & anaerobic leads to CH4 & CO2
Dry & aerobic leads to
CO2
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schädel et al. 2016Nature Climate
Permafrost incubations
21 Studies
Compare 15oC to
5oC
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schädel et al. 2016Nature Climate
Permafrost incubations
21 Studies
Compare 15oC to
5oC
Increase by factor of 2
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Lawrence et al. 2015Env. Res. Lett.
Model permafrost drying
NCAR Community Land Model, RCP 8.5
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Model permafrost carbon loss
Lawrence et al. 2015Env. Res. Lett.
NCAR Community Land Model, RCP 8.5
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Measure atmospheric CH4
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
Slight winter increase?
Measure atmospheric CH4
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
Slight winter increase?
???
Measure atmospheric CH4
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
Slight winter increase?
???Increase by 6oC!
Measure atmospheric CH4
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon - best estimates
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon - best estimates
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature
Approximately 100 GtC by 2100
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2 If wet -> CH4 (?)
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2 If wet -> CH4 (?)
100 GtC by 2100, 370 GtCO2 by 2100 (8 decades)
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2 If wet -> CH4 (?)
100 GtC by 2100, 370 GtCO2 by 2100 (8 decades)estimate 46 GtCO2 per decade, or 140 GtCO2 by 2050
additional 18 (7 to 25) ppm by 2050.
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
Very preli
minary!
Conc
entra
tion C
O2, p
pm
Riahi et al. submittedGlobal Env. Change
400 ppm in 2016?
From AR5
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
Carbon from permafrost adds ~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
If dry -> CO2Carbon from permafrost adds
~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
If dry -> CO2
If 5% wet -> CH4
Carbon from permafrost adds ~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
One of the urgent
questions on our planet
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Climate challenges the human spirit
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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Huselius et al. 2013. TheNorthernCircumpolarSoilCarbonDatabase:spatially distributed datasets of soil coverage and soil carbon storage in the northern permafrost regions. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5, 3–13.
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Schaefer et al. 2014. The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003
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Sweeney et al. 2016. No significant increase in long-term CH4 emissions on North Slope of Alaska despite significant increase in air temperature. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069292
Papers referenced in this talk: