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WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon and its role in future carbon emissions
D CarlsonDirector, WCRP
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Observations
Models
CMIP
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrostcarbon
Week CenturyDecadeSeason
Climate Grand Challenges
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schaefer et al. 2014Env. Res. Lett.
Accumulated for 1000’s of
years
No decay while frozen
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
0-3 m
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
0-3 m
1,035 + 150 GtC!
Hugelius et al. 2013, ESSD
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
0-3 m
1,035 + 150 GtC!
(1,035 GtC = 485 ppm in atmosphere)
Hugelius et al. 2013, ESSD
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Thermokarst lakes (TKL), Alaska
Permafrost land morphology
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Alaska: Active Layer Detachment (ALD); Surface Erosion (GTK);
Retrogressive Thaw Slump (RTS)
Permafrost land morphology
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Alaska: Active Layer Detachment (ALD); Surface Erosion (GTK);
Retrogressive Thaw Slump (RTS)
Permafrost land morphology
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature Drill
3 m
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
(1,035 GtC = 485 ppm in atmosphere)
• Where will this carbon go? • As CO2 or as CH4? • How much, how fast?
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schuur et al. 2015
Nature
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schuur et al. 2015
Nature
Dry & aerobic leads to
CO2
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon feedback
Schuur et al. 2015
Nature
Wet & anaerobic leads to CH4 & CO2
Dry & aerobic leads to
CO2
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schädel et al. 2016Nature Climate
Permafrost incubations
21 Studies
Compare 15oC to
5oC
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Schädel et al. 2016Nature Climate
Permafrost incubations
21 Studies
Compare 15oC to
5oC
Increase by factor of 2
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Lawrence et al. 2015Env. Res. Lett.
Model permafrost drying
NCAR Community Land Model, RCP 8.5
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Model permafrost carbon loss
Lawrence et al. 2015Env. Res. Lett.
NCAR Community Land Model, RCP 8.5
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Measure atmospheric CH4
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
Slight winter increase?
Measure atmospheric CH4
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
Slight winter increase?
???
Measure atmospheric CH4
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Sweeney et al. 2016GRL
Barrow, Alaska (USA) - 29 years of continuous CH4 measurements (NOAA), months with wind from land sector
(July to December)
Slight winter increase?
???Increase by 6oC!
Measure atmospheric CH4
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon - best estimates
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Permafrost carbon - best estimates
Schuur et al. 2015 Nature
Approximately 100 GtC by 2100
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2 If wet -> CH4 (?)
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2 If wet -> CH4 (?)
100 GtC by 2100, 370 GtCO2 by 2100 (8 decades)
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Upper 3 metres of terrestrial permafrost contain 1,035 + 150 GtC!
• Where will this carbon go?
• As CO2 or as CH4?
• How much, how fast?
Biology -> atmosphere Erosion -> ocean
If dry -> CO2 If wet -> CH4 (?)
100 GtC by 2100, 370 GtCO2 by 2100 (8 decades)estimate 46 GtCO2 per decade, or 140 GtCO2 by 2050
additional 18 (7 to 25) ppm by 2050.
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
Very preli
minary!
Conc
entra
tion C
O2, p
pm
Riahi et al. submittedGlobal Env. Change
400 ppm in 2016?
From AR5
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
Carbon from permafrost adds ~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
If dry -> CO2Carbon from permafrost adds
~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
CMIP6 Scenarios - Preliminary
If dry -> CO2
If 5% wet -> CH4
Carbon from permafrost adds ~18 ppm CO2 by 2050 …
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
One of the urgent
questions on our planet
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Climate challenges the human spirit
WCRP ISCS 2016.07.15
Huselius et al. 2013. TheNorthernCircumpolarSoilCarbonDatabase:spatially distributed datasets of soil coverage and soil carbon storage in the northern permafrost regions. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 5, 3–13.
Lawrence et al. 2015. Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011
Schädel et al. 2106. Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3054
Schaefer et al. 2014. The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003
Schuur et al. 2015. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. doi:10.1038/nature14338
Sweeney et al. 2016. No significant increase in long-term CH4 emissions on North Slope of Alaska despite significant increase in air temperature. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069292
Papers referenced in this talk: