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Project Time Estimationusing
Fuzzy Logic
PhD. Prof. FADI ISSA IONEL NAFTANAILA
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Measure of success of a project:
Time management systems:
Processes of Time Management area:◦ Define ◦ Sequence ◦ Estimate resources◦ Estimate durations ◦ Develop schedule◦ Control schedule
in planning stage
Project Time Management
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Estimation: Activity, Project
Fuzzy Logic
big
30,000
0
1
The problem:
30,000
0
1big
Project Time Management
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Similarities: with one project, with more projects.
Using Fuzzy Logic
Project
Project 2
Project 5
Project 4
Project 3
Project 1
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Comparison variables:
Project 2
Project 5
Project 4
Project 3
Project 1
Project Related
Non Project Related
Using Fuzzy Logic
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small
average
big
lines of code
membership
50,000
Using Fuzzy Logic
error15%7% 40%
Project Size Error in estimation
Accuracy: number of fuzzy sets
small
normal
big
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small
average
big
lines of code
membership
50,000
Using Fuzzy Logic (fuzzy rules)
error15%7% 40%
If project size is big then error is normal.
normal
bigsmall
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If manager experience is small OR project size is big then error is big.
If manager experience is average AND project size is normal then error is normal.
Centroid
Manager Experience Project Size Estimated error
16%
4 years 40,000
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System(Fuzzy Rules)
Inputs
Output
Collecting Data for Creating Rules: Surveys, Automated.
PC6
PC5PC4
PC3
PC2
PC
PC1
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Thank you!