Project Time Estimationusing

Fuzzy Logic

PhD. Prof. FADI ISSA IONEL NAFTANAILA

Measure of success of a project:

Time management systems:

Processes of Time Management area:◦ Define ◦ Sequence ◦ Estimate resources◦ Estimate durations ◦ Develop schedule◦ Control schedule

in planning stage

Project Time Management

Estimation: Activity, Project

Fuzzy Logic

big

30,000

0

1

The problem:

30,000

0

1big

Project Time Management

Similarities: with one project, with more projects.

Using Fuzzy Logic

Project

Project 2

Project 5

Project 4

Project 3

Project 1

Comparison variables:

Project 2

Project 5

Project 4

Project 3

Project 1

Project Related

Non Project Related

Using Fuzzy Logic

small

average

big

lines of code

membership

50,000

Using Fuzzy Logic

error15%7% 40%

Project Size Error in estimation

Accuracy: number of fuzzy sets

small

normal

big

small

average

big

lines of code

membership

50,000

Using Fuzzy Logic (fuzzy rules)

error15%7% 40%

If project size is big then error is normal.

normal

bigsmall

If manager experience is small OR project size is big then error is big.

If manager experience is average AND project size is normal then error is normal.

Centroid

Manager Experience Project Size Estimated error

16%

4 years 40,000

System(Fuzzy Rules)

Inputs

Output

Collecting Data for Creating Rules: Surveys, Automated.

PC6

PC5PC4

PC3

PC2

PC

PC1

Thank you!