Tom Tapper Transport
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TRANSPORT
Energy Demand Projections
Tom Tapper
24th February 2005
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The Transport PredicamentThe Transport Predicament
•Transport is essential for the economic prosperity of the UK
•Our spatially diffuse society relies on transport to facilitate the high levels of personal mobility and freedom we have come to expect
•However, our motorised society has lead to significant increases in energy demand and significant environmental impacts from the inefficient use of energy.
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1970
Transport
Services
Domestic
Industry
2000
2002
Historical Trends Historical Trends
Moving from an Industrial society to a highly mobile, Transport based society
Percentage of Total UK delivered Energy, by Sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 2000 2002
Time
%
Transport
Services
Domestic
Industry
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Factors affecting changes in transport Factors affecting changes in transport energy useenergy use•Is estimated that 90% of the change in demand for transport is
due to changes in the Output effect (Increasing demand)
•While 10% is due to change in the Intensity effect (Changes in Structure and efficiency)
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Total Vehicle Energy Consumption y = 18.643x - 35993
R2 = 0.8811
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
PJ
Total UK Light Vehicles •Consistent Increase of approximately 0.46 Million vehicles per annum
•No signs to suggest total vehicles will start to decline
Total Light Vehicle
Energy Consumption•On average has increased by 18.6 PJ per annum
•Recently energy consumption has reach a plateau and begun to decline
•Is this a promising sign for the future?
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Average Distance Travelled per Vehicle y = 107.8x - 198266
R2 = 0.8496
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
KM
/Veh
icle
Fuel Consumptiony = -0.0415x + 85.82
R2 = 0.8812
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Mj/K
m
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Energy Consumption with alternating static variables
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (P
J)
All variable
Static FuelEfficieny Static Km/Vehilce
Static Number ofVehilces
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How Factors effect energy How Factors effect energy consumption consumption
•To analyse how each individual factor has influence energy consumption, a datum year was chosen (1964), then each factor was held constant as the other factors varied thus showing the individual factors contribution to overall energy consumption
•This demonstrates the importance of fuel efficiency in minimising energy consumption, given no improvements in energy efficiency the energy demand would be significantly greater than that today.
•The graph also displays that the total number of vehicles on the roads is driving the increases in energy consumption, therefore this is a target area for reductions.
•The graph shows that only recently have improvements in fuel efficiency and reductions in Km/Vehicle been significant enough to compensate for the increasing number of vehicles on the roads, thus resulting in the gradual reductions in energy consumption
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Total Energy Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Ene
rgy
(PJ) Optimistic
PessimisticProbable
Despite improvements in
efficiency, increase in total vehicles drives
demand up
Demand decreases as
increase in total cars slows and
efficiency improves
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Energy Scenarios Energy Scenarios •Worst: Emission controls are implemented but weak and lack enforcement, little is done to change social structure: minor reduction in KM/Vehicle and total cars increase. Summary: energy consumption gradually increases
•Best: Emission control is set and implemented quickly, as new, efficient cars flood the market reductions occur more rapidly, by 2030 emissions reduced by 40%. Society is more aware of climate change, and is adjusting accordingly to reduce vehicle ownership per head to Km/vehicle. Summary: Energy Consumption significantly decreases
•Likely: Regulations are partially successful, however, accepting that society doesn’t respond as quickly as imagined and some technical difficulties in emission reductions
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Present 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Pessimistic - 1201 1237 1255 1253 1248
Optimistic - 1034 926 804 728 668
Probable 1120 1118 1082 1030 991 958
Projected energy demand, passenger Projected energy demand, passenger road transportroad transport
Units: (PJ)
These projections are based on road passenger transport, this area consumes the largest proportion of energy within
transport sector, over 50%, thus changes in this sector will have the most significant impacts.
However, changes in demand from other sectors are currently more variable therefore demand some attention
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Total Demand Calculations Total Demand Calculations 1970: 6114 PJ (19% Transport)
2000: 6703 PJ (34% Transport)
2030: 7346 PJ (39% Transport, DTI projection )
(7346/100)*39 = 2864 PJ Total Transport Demand 2030
Of which Passenger transport will account for 958PJ or 33%
Currently Freight Transport = 29% of Total Transport, with a previous growth rate of 17%, freight transport will continue to increase but at a lesser rate, due to advances in efficiency and saturated markets – 17% further growth over 30 year period. Therefore by 2030 Freight Transport will account for 33.9% or 970 PJ
Air will follow a similar pattern, at present accounting for 18% of Total Transport growth rate of 73% over 10 years, this increase will continue but at a lesser rate – 73% over 30 years. Therefore by 2030 Aviation will account for 31% or 889 PJ
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Total Transport Energy
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2010 2020 2030
Dem
and
(PJ)
Total TransportEnergyRoad PassengertransportRoad FreightTransportAir Transport
Overall Transport
Energy demand continues to
grow to accommodate highly mobile
society
Increased diversity of
transport energy demand,
decrease in passenger, significant
increase in air and freight
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Year Total Transport Energy
Road Passenger transport
Road Freight Transport
Air Transport
2000 2279 1139 660 410
2010 2390 1103 722 505
2015 2505 1067 784 601
2020 2622 1031 846 696
2025 2741 995 908 791
2030 2864 958 970 889
Total Transport Energy Demand Total Transport Energy Demand (PJ)(PJ)
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AssumptionsAssumptions•Market processes with naturally improve vehicle efficiency
•Growth in Air and Freight transport will reduce but still remain high
•Discounting water and rail: insignificant contribution
•Carbon trading does not affect transport industry due to mobility of source
•Predictions rely on fossil fuels to provide majority of energy, an increased role in small diesel power units, greater reliance on gas imports until hydrogen infrastructure in installed
•Large scale investment into a hydrogen technology: creating an infrastructure, developing vehicles and integrating fuel-cells into society as to begin the transfer from an oil to a hydrogen nation