Tom Tapper Transport

1

TRANSPORT

Energy Demand Projections

Tom Tapper

24th February 2005

Tom Tapper Transport

2

The Transport PredicamentThe Transport Predicament

•Transport is essential for the economic prosperity of the UK

•Our spatially diffuse society relies on transport to facilitate the high levels of personal mobility and freedom we have come to expect

•However, our motorised society has lead to significant increases in energy demand and significant environmental impacts from the inefficient use of energy.

Tom Tapper Transport

3

1970

Transport

Services

Domestic

Industry

2000

2002

Historical Trends Historical Trends

Moving from an Industrial society to a highly mobile, Transport based society

Percentage of Total UK delivered Energy, by Sector

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 2000 2002

Time

%

Transport

Services

Domestic

Industry

Tom Tapper Transport

4

Factors affecting changes in transport Factors affecting changes in transport energy useenergy use•Is estimated that 90% of the change in demand for transport is

due to changes in the Output effect (Increasing demand)

•While 10% is due to change in the Intensity effect (Changes in Structure and efficiency)

Tom Tapper Transport

5

Total Vehicle Energy Consumption y = 18.643x - 35993

R2 = 0.8811

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

PJ

Total UK Light Vehicles •Consistent Increase of approximately 0.46 Million vehicles per annum

•No signs to suggest total vehicles will start to decline

Total Light Vehicle

Energy Consumption•On average has increased by 18.6 PJ per annum

•Recently energy consumption has reach a plateau and begun to decline

•Is this a promising sign for the future?

Tom Tapper Transport

6

Average Distance Travelled per Vehicle y = 107.8x - 198266

R2 = 0.8496

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

KM

/Veh

icle

Fuel Consumptiony = -0.0415x + 85.82

R2 = 0.8812

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Mj/K

m

Tom Tapper Transport

7

Energy Consumption with alternating static variables

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (P

J)

All variable

Static FuelEfficieny Static Km/Vehilce

Static Number ofVehilces

Tom Tapper Transport

8

How Factors effect energy How Factors effect energy consumption consumption

•To analyse how each individual factor has influence energy consumption, a datum year was chosen (1964), then each factor was held constant as the other factors varied thus showing the individual factors contribution to overall energy consumption

•This demonstrates the importance of fuel efficiency in minimising energy consumption, given no improvements in energy efficiency the energy demand would be significantly greater than that today.

•The graph also displays that the total number of vehicles on the roads is driving the increases in energy consumption, therefore this is a target area for reductions.

•The graph shows that only recently have improvements in fuel efficiency and reductions in Km/Vehicle been significant enough to compensate for the increasing number of vehicles on the roads, thus resulting in the gradual reductions in energy consumption

Tom Tapper Transport

9

Total Energy Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Ene

rgy

(PJ) Optimistic

PessimisticProbable

Despite improvements in

efficiency, increase in total vehicles drives

demand up

Demand decreases as

increase in total cars slows and

efficiency improves

Tom Tapper Transport

10

Energy Scenarios Energy Scenarios •Worst: Emission controls are implemented but weak and lack enforcement, little is done to change social structure: minor reduction in KM/Vehicle and total cars increase. Summary: energy consumption gradually increases

•Best: Emission control is set and implemented quickly, as new, efficient cars flood the market reductions occur more rapidly, by 2030 emissions reduced by 40%. Society is more aware of climate change, and is adjusting accordingly to reduce vehicle ownership per head to Km/vehicle. Summary: Energy Consumption significantly decreases

•Likely: Regulations are partially successful, however, accepting that society doesn’t respond as quickly as imagined and some technical difficulties in emission reductions

Tom Tapper Transport

11

Present 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pessimistic - 1201 1237 1255 1253 1248

Optimistic - 1034 926 804 728 668

Probable 1120 1118 1082 1030 991 958

Projected energy demand, passenger Projected energy demand, passenger road transportroad transport

Units: (PJ)

These projections are based on road passenger transport, this area consumes the largest proportion of energy within

transport sector, over 50%, thus changes in this sector will have the most significant impacts.

However, changes in demand from other sectors are currently more variable therefore demand some attention

Tom Tapper Transport

12

Total Demand Calculations Total Demand Calculations 1970: 6114 PJ (19% Transport)

2000: 6703 PJ (34% Transport)

2030: 7346 PJ (39% Transport, DTI projection )

(7346/100)*39 = 2864 PJ Total Transport Demand 2030

Of which Passenger transport will account for 958PJ or 33%

Currently Freight Transport = 29% of Total Transport, with a previous growth rate of 17%, freight transport will continue to increase but at a lesser rate, due to advances in efficiency and saturated markets – 17% further growth over 30 year period. Therefore by 2030 Freight Transport will account for 33.9% or 970 PJ

Air will follow a similar pattern, at present accounting for 18% of Total Transport growth rate of 73% over 10 years, this increase will continue but at a lesser rate – 73% over 30 years. Therefore by 2030 Aviation will account for 31% or 889 PJ

Tom Tapper Transport

13

Total Transport Energy

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2010 2020 2030

Dem

and

(PJ)

Total TransportEnergyRoad PassengertransportRoad FreightTransportAir Transport

Overall Transport

Energy demand continues to

grow to accommodate highly mobile

society

Increased diversity of

transport energy demand,

decrease in passenger, significant

increase in air and freight

Tom Tapper Transport

14

Year Total Transport Energy

Road Passenger transport

Road Freight Transport

Air Transport

2000 2279 1139 660 410

2010 2390 1103 722 505

2015 2505 1067 784 601

2020 2622 1031 846 696

2025 2741 995 908 791

2030 2864 958 970 889

Total Transport Energy Demand Total Transport Energy Demand (PJ)(PJ)

Tom Tapper Transport

15

AssumptionsAssumptions•Market processes with naturally improve vehicle efficiency

•Growth in Air and Freight transport will reduce but still remain high

•Discounting water and rail: insignificant contribution

•Carbon trading does not affect transport industry due to mobility of source

•Predictions rely on fossil fuels to provide majority of energy, an increased role in small diesel power units, greater reliance on gas imports until hydrogen infrastructure in installed

•Large scale investment into a hydrogen technology: creating an infrastructure, developing vehicles and integrating fuel-cells into society as to begin the transfer from an oil to a hydrogen nation