Dr Alan Abelsohn

A/ Prof Grant Blashki

Climate change and health

Climate Change Conference 2010Alan Abelsohn, University of Toronto

Addressing the Health Effects of Climate Change: Family Physicians are Key

http://www.ocfp.on.ca

Climate change related to global warming is the world’s most urgent public health problem (Stott BMJ 2006)

Climate change has been called the defining issue for public health in the 21st century. (Chan, 2007)

Climate change related to global warming is the world’s most urgent public health problem (Stott BMJ 2006)

Climate change has been called the defining issue for public health in the 21st century. (Chan, 2007)

Health Impacts of Climate Change

Direct impactsTemperature relatedExtreme weather events

Indirect impactsAir pollution relatedWater and food borne contaminationVector borne and zoonotic diseasesSocio-economic impacts on communities

The French Heat Wave 2003 Daily Mortality in Paris

Source: INVS, 2003

Number of hot days above 30C

Heat Waves in Canadian Cities

Environment Canada 2005

Heat Related ImpactsHeat related illnessVulnerable populations

ElderlyChronic IllnessesMedicationsHousingIsolated/ HomelessOccupational

Adaptation: Heat alert programs

Heat, Air Pollution and Weather Related Mortality in Toronto

Air Air PollutionPollution

Acute air Acute air pollution pollution related related elevatedelevatedmortalitymortality

# Days # Days with with temptemp>30>3000CC

Heat Heat alertsalerts

Heat Heat related related elevated elevated mortalitymortality

Cold Cold related related mortalitymortality

Annual Annual mean # mean # (1954-(1954-2000)2000)

822822 88 2.52.5 120120 105105

Predicted Predicted 2080 2080 (based on (based on a 3 fold a 3 fold increase increase in CO2)in CO2)

Substantial Substantial increase in increase in high high pollution pollution days (esp days (esp Ozone Ozone related)related)

25-30% 25-30% increase, increase, to 1070to 1070

4 fold 4 fold increaseincrease

4 fold 4 fold increase increase in hot in hot weather weather warningswarnings

3 fold 3 fold increase increase (360)(360)

60% 60% decreasedecrease

Derived from Toronto Public Health. Influence of Weather and Air Pollution on Mortality in Toronto: Summary Report (Pengelly et al., 2005)

B) Kelowna - August 18-21, 2003 Forest Fires

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

Hour

AQ

HI

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Po

lluta

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nc

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NO2=22, O3=13, PM2.5=100, AQHI=7

NO2=7, O3=55, PM2.5=75, AQHI=7

Forest Fire – Air Pollution

AllergiesLength of SeasonIncreased Pollen CountsSynergism with Ozone

Storms, floods, drought

Less developed countries: more vulnerable

Direct injuriesIndirect Damage

PTSD, anxiety, depressionSocio-political unrest and Population Displacement

DroughtWater scarcityMalnutrition, infant mortalityFires

Drought in Australia

Vector Borne Diseases (Zoonoses)

DengueLyme DiseaseMalaria

Potential Spread of Lyme Disease

From Ogden International Journal for Parasitology 2006

Malaria

Rate of development and biting rateIncreased egg survivalIncreased puddles where mosquitoes breed Increased range of survival

AltitudeLatitude

Baseline

Ebi et al. 2005Ebi et al. 2005

Vector-Borne: Malaria in Zimbabwe 2000

2025

Ebi et al. 2005Ebi et al. 2005

2075

Ebi et al. 2005Ebi et al. 2005

Impact in Developing CountriesImpact in Developing Countries

By 2000, climate change since the 1970s

was causing over 150,000 additional deaths per year (WHO, 2002)

Malnutrition; Gastro-enteritis; malaria

Sea level rise

Indirect impacts on international health

WaterFood securityExtreme climatic events

Shelter and human settlementsPopulation displacement and migration

The challenge of poverty and inequality (MDGs)

Costello A et al. Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission. Lancet. 2009;373:1693-1733.

Costello. Lancet 2009