Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project

Alan F. HamletMarketa McGuire ElsnerKurt Unger

• CSES Climate Impacts Group• Department of Civil &

Environmental Engineering,University of Washington

• WA State Dept. of EcologyClimate science in the

public interest

The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project

This 3-year research project (now in the final stages of completion) is designed to provide a comprehensive suite of 21st century hydroclimatological scenarios for the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in OR and WA.

Collaborative Partners:•WA State Dept. of Ecology (via HB 2860)•Bonneville Power Administration•Northwest Power and Conservation Council•Oregon Water Resources Department•BC Ministry of the Environment

297 Streamflow

Sites

• Provide a wide range of products to address multiple stakeholder needs

• Increase spatial and temporal resolution

• Provide a large ensemble of climate scenarios to assess uncertainties

• Address hydrologic extremes (e.g. Q100 and 7Q10)

Project Goals and Objectives

CBCCSP Research Team

Lara Whitely BinderPablo CarrascoJeff DeemsMarketa McGuire ElsnerAlan F. HamletCarrie LeeSe-Yeun LeeDennis P. LettenmaierJeremy LittellGuillaume MaugerNate MantuaEd MilesKristian MickelsonPhilip W. MoteRob NorheimErin RogersEric SalathéAmy SnoverIngrid TohverAndy Wood

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/r7climate/study_report/CBCCSP_chap1_intro_final.pdf

Overview of Scenarios

Mote and Salathé, Climate Impacts Group 2009, WA Assessment, Ch. 1http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml

Climate Change Scenarios

Figure shows change compared with 1970 - 1999 average

IPCC AR 4 Emissions Scenarios:

A1B Medium High

B1 Low

Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest

http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf

2020s

2040s

2080s

Available PNW Scenarios

2020s – mean 2010-2039; 2040s – mean 2030-2059; 2080s – mean 2070-2099

Downscaling ApproachA1B

Emissions Scenario

B1 Emissions Scenario

Hybrid Delta

hadcm cnrm_cm ccsm3 echam5 echo_g cgcm3.1_t47 pcm1 miroc_3.2 ipsl_cm4 hadgem1

2020s 10 9

2040s 10 9

2080s 10 9

Transient BCSD

hadcm cnrm_cm ccsm3 echam5 echo_g cgcm3.1_t47 pcm1

1950-2098+ 7 7

Delta Method

composite of 10

2020s 1 12040s 1 12080s 1 1

Website Updates

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/

Overview of Hydrologic Products

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/

HydrologicProducts

Changing Watershed Classifications:Transformation From Snow to Rain

* Based on Composite Delta Method scenarios (multimodel average change in T & P)

Map: Rob Norheim

Snowmelt-Dominant Basins:

Snake River at Milner

SWE Streamflow

Changes in Hydrologic Extremes

2040s Changes in Natural Flood RiskBoise River at Boise

A1B B1

Historical10 Member Ensemble Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach

Study results (which currently are in final form) are already being used and evaluated by a wide range of stakeholders including:•USGS•WA Dept of Ecology/WSU (HB 2860)•Bonneville Power Administration•U.S. Bureau of Reclamation•U.S. Army Corps of Engineers•U.S. Forest Service•U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service•Boise Aquatic Research Laboratory•National Marine Fisheries Science Center

Who’s Using the Data?

Project Extensions

Extended Products for the Western U.S.

The approach has been extended to additional western US watersheds in partnership with:

•US Forest Service•US Fish and Wildlife Service•Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab•Trout Unlimited

Regional Climate Modeling at CIG WRF Model (NOAH LSM) 36 to 12 km

ECHAM5 forcing

CCSM3 forcing (A1B and A2 scenarios)

HadRM 25 km HadCM3 forcing

Extreme Precipitation from RCM Simulations

Change from 1970-2000 to 2030-2060 in the percentage of total precipitation occurring when daily precipitation exceeds the 20th century 95th percentile

larger increase on windward slopes of Cascades, Columbia basinsmall increase or decrease along Cascade crest

http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach2rcm643.pdf

Ongoing Support for PNW Stakeholders and Water Professionals:

•Meetings and Workshops

•Webinars

•Short Courses

•Targeted Research Projects