dr alexey muraviev - curtin university - back in the game? russia’s strategic and defence policy...

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National Security Summit, Canberra 31.08.2016

School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts

Dr Alexey D MuravievHead, Department of Social Sciences & Security Studies

Coordinator, International Relations & National Security programs

Director, Strategic Flashlight forum on National Security & Strategy

Back in the Game?Russia’s Strategic & Defence Policy in

the Indo-Pacific



School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 31.08.2016

Point One

Crimea, Syria & the

Error of Judgement



Russia’s Power Response in Crimea

31.08.2016School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts

Covert deployment of special ops

elements

The 76th Pskov Airborne Division

Special Operations Forces (SOF)

Successful ECMs and other

Failure of western intelligence

The force in being

– about 14,000

troops

The navy and air force

Naval infantry/Marines



The Times, 10 AUGUST 2016…

16.08.2016School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts

“Russia has Edge in Battle, British Army Admits”

“In the unlikely event of a direct confrontation between NATO and

RUS [Russia], we must acknowledge that RUS currently has a

significant capability edge over UK force elements…. Due to the fact

that some of our high-end military capabilities have been eroded since

2003, we must find ways to ‘fight smarter’ at the tactical level,

acknowledging that some adversaries may be armed with weapons

that are superior to our own.”

The world’s second most

powerful military force

Battle hardened, highly

motivated

Significant capability lift




Point Two

Russia’s Military Strategy &

Threat Perceptions



Complex geopolitical configuration

Bordering China, Japan, North Korea, US

(Alaska)

Opium and heroin (Afghan origin)

Unique geostrategic configuration

Three major, one minor nuclear powers

Major Considerations


Regional insecurity

Territorial disputes

Japan, USA, China

(formally resolved)

Korean peninsula

China v Taiwan



Fear of a major conflict in the Asia-Pacific after 2020 >

General Mahmud Gareev: “The most acute outbreak of struggle may be anticipated in Asia and the Pacific”

Lieutenant-General Leonid Ivashov: “Major threats to Russian national security are… likely to come from the East”

Vice Premier Sergei Ivanov: “It [the Pacific region] is an area of a potential conflict… with absolutely no rules of the game.” (Khabarovsk, 6 April 2007)

Threat Perceptions




31.08.2016

Six strategic vectors; two different

approaches

Robust deterrence and defence

Atlantic/Baltic, Arctic, Black

Sea/Mediterranean

Cooperation and engagement

Pacific, Indian Ocean, Antarctic

The Indo-Pacific vector

Developing special relationships with PLAN and

the Indian Navy

Traditional tasks and missions

The Revised Maritime Doctrine 2015





Point Three

Force Posturing

OSK Vostok [East]



4 Armies (5th, 29th, 35th & 36th) & 1 Army

Corps (68th)

72,500 personnel (peacetime strength)

30 brigades and 1 (1) division

11th AF/AD Army (3rd AF/AD Command)

About 500 aircraft (LRA & PFNA)

Fourth-generation+ platforms (Syria cont.)

Su-35S, Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-24M2,

Su-27SM, MiG-31BM, Ka-52

Strategic nuclear power (the Triad)

33rd Guards Missile Army: 4 missile divisions

(about 127 launchers)

Order of Battle




Missions

Strategic nuclear deterrence

Area maritime defence/EEZ protection

Power projection/forward presence

International activities/showing the flag

Order of battle

Over 140 units, including 24 submarines

About 100 aircraft (31 Tu-22M3s/Tu-142s)

Strategic nuclear power (the Triad)

3 Delta III class, 2 Borey class SSBNs

(80 launchers – September 2016)

The 326th Heavy Bomber div

(about 40 Tu-95MS; up to 100 ALCMs)31.08.2016

Order of Battle - Navy





Point Four

Capability Upgrade

OSK Vostok



31.08.2016

Future Trends – Land and Air

Vision

Protection of Russia’s Far eastern

approaches

The Arctic vector

Formation of a new coastal defence

division by 2018 (Chukotka area)

The China vector (Vietnam…?)

Major additions > 2020

A total of 13,000 pieces of new weapons and

military hardware by 2020

2015 1,000 pieces of military hardware

received

2014 400 new itemsSchool of Media, Culture and Creative Arts



31.08.2016

Future Trends - Sea

Vision

Concentration of 1/4 of national naval power

Strategic nuclear deterrence

Geopolitical considerations (SEA, IO)

The China vector (Vietnam…?)

Major additions >2025>

Up to 4 Borey class SSBNs

2+ Severodvinsk class SSNs

6 Type 636.3 Improved Kilo class SSKs

1–2 Lavina class LPDs (proposed)

1 (+1) Ushakov, Moskva class CG(N)s

6+ Steregushchiy class FFMs

2+ Admiral Gorshkov class FFGsSchool of Media, Culture and Creative Arts




Point Six

In Conclusion…



Risen awareness of APIOST’s geo-strategic challenges

Concerns about regional instability

ABM and proliferation concerns

Conventional arms race

Fear of a major conflict in the Asia-Pacific

Concerns about future conflicts in the littoralSergei Ivanov’s remarks in Khabarovsk (2007)


Concluding Points

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THANK YOU…31.08.2016


Back in the Game?

Dr Alexey D MuravievEmail: [email protected]

dr alexey muraviev - curtin university - back in the game? russia’s strategic and defence policy...

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