dr. james p. gaines · 2018-03-26 · dr. james p. gaines chief economist federal reserve bank of...

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Real Estate Center at Texas A&M UniversityFebruary 23, 2018

Macro Housing Issues

1. Affordability: the main challenge for the next several years (decades?); income growth vs. price changes

2. Demographics: generational life cycles; shifting tastes,

preferences, attitudes & desires

3. Capital Flows & Lending Requirements: equity requirements; interest rates and monetary/fiscal policies

4. Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities, water

5. Development: Design, Density, Resources and Processes

6. Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use controlsFederal

State

Local

Affordability: Income to Price Balance

House

Price

Household

Income

4

Affordability:

How much down

and how much per

month?

Future of Housing & Affordability:Supply & Demand

Demand Side

• Income growth relative to home price changes

• Demographics and shifts in housing attitudes & preferences

• Mortgage availability: currently a demand constraint• Underwriting and risk rating: ease of credit & terms

• Interest rates

• Effective buyer education

Future of Housing & Affordability:Supply & Demand

Supply Side

• Land & land development costs

• Construction Costs: labor & materials

• Rent growth

• Regulatory Effects: federal, state and local constrain supply & lead to higher costs

• SF investor-rental market

National Housing Market

7

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Jan

-00

Ju

l-0

0

Jan

-01

Ju

l-0

1

Jan

-02

Ju

l-0

2

Jan

-03

Ju

l-0

3

Jan

-04

Ju

l-0

4

Jan

-05

Ju

l-0

5

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-0

7

Jan

-08

Ju

l-0

8

Jan

-09

Ju

l-0

9

Jan

-10

Ju

l-1

0

Jan

-11

Ju

l-1

1

Jan

-12

Ju

l-1

2

Jan

-13

Ju

l-1

3

Jan

-14

Ju

l-1

4

Jan

-15

Ju

l-1

5

Jan

-16

Ju

l-1

6

Jan

-17

Ju

l-1

7

Jan

-18

Sources: US Census Bureau; NAR

Existing SF Home Sales

New SF Home Sales

Ho

me S

ale

s 0

00s, S

AA

R

Ho

me S

ale

s 0

00s, S

AA

R

New and Existing SF Home Sales U.S.New and Existing SF Home Sales

NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Market Index & SF Starts

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan

-90

Ju

l-9

0Jan

-91

Ju

l-9

1Jan

-92

Ju

l-9

2Jan

-93

Ju

l-9

3Jan

-94

Ju

l-9

4J

an

-95

Ju

l-9

5J

an

-96

Ju

l-9

6J

an

-97

Ju

l-9

7J

an

-98

Ju

l-9

8J

an

-99

Ju

l-9

9J

an

-00

Ju

l-0

0J

an

-01

Ju

l-0

1J

an

-02

Ju

l-0

2J

an

-03

Ju

l-0

3J

an

-04

Ju

l-0

4J

an

-05

Ju

l-0

5J

an

-06

Ju

l-0

6J

an

-07

Ju

l-0

7J

an

-08

Ju

l-0

8J

an

-09

Ju

l-0

9J

an

-10

Ju

l-1

0J

an

-11

Ju

l-1

1J

an

-12

Ju

l-1

2J

an

-13

Ju

l-1

3J

an

-14

Ju

l-1

4J

an

-15

Ju

l-1

5J

an

-16

Ju

l-1

6J

an

-17

Ju

l-1

7J

an

-18

Ju

l-1

8

Ho

us

ing

Sta

rts

, 0

00

s

HM

I

Housing Market Index Single-Family Starts

Source: NAHB, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Average Starts since 1990 (SAAR) 1,014k

Expected Interest Rate on a 30-Year, Fixed-Rate Mortgage in 2018

Apr-105.10

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 10

30-Year FRM rate affected by:

1. Changes in Fed Funds rate

2. Fed downsizing balance sheet

3. Inflation expectations

4. Growth in debt demand

5. Income & productivity growth

+25bp

+50bp

+100bp

11

Texas Housing

Market &

Affordability

Mortgage & Tenure Status of Homes in Texas 2006 & 2016

2006 2016

Number

Percent

of Total

Units Number

Percent

of Total

Units

Total Housing Units 9,224,920 10,754,268

Total Occupied Units 8,109,388 87.9% 9,535,612 88.7%

Total Renter-Occupied Housing

Units 2,818,343 34.8% 3,710,141 38.9%

Total Owner-Occupied Housing

Units 5,291,045 65.2% 5,825,471 61.1%

O-O units with a mortgage 3,368,890 63.7% 3,366,378 57.8%

O-O units without a

mortgage 1,922,155 36.3% 2,459,093 42.2%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 & 2016 American Community Survey

Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2011-2015

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

Franklin

Hunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La

Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

MedHHInc15

$22,741.00 - $35,000.00

$35,000.01 - $45,000.00

$45,000.01 - $55,000.00

$55,000.01 - $65,000.00

$65,000.01 - $89,152.00

tl_2010_48_county10Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, 5-Year Samples;

Texas State Demographer’s Office

Median HH Income 2011-2015 $53,207

Texas Median HH Income & Median Home Price Indexed to 1990

8090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Nominal HH Income

Median Home Price

Median home price +206.7% (3x); Avg. 7.7%/yr.

HH Income +106.0% (2x); Avg. 3.9%/yr.

Alternative Texas Population Projections 2010-2050

54,369,297

47,386,428

25,145,561 40,502,749

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

15Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections

2000-2010 Scenario

50% 2000-2010 Scenario

2010-2015 Scenario

From 1970 to 2010 (40 years),

Texas added 13.9 million people

From 2010 to 2050 (40 years),

Texas will add between 22

and 30 million people

Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

103,344102,789110,830

120,749

126,525126,279

142,940151,861

177,179

191,189195,568

204,084209,438

224,215

250,380

277,649

304,762

286,778

241,666

221,768211,640213,396

247,090

287,235296,828

309,518

323,607

336,502

358,375

$50,000

$70,000

$90,000

$110,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000

$270,000

$290,000

$310,000

$330,000

$350,000

$370,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

370,0001

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

p

Sales Avg Price Md Price

Since 2011

Sales + 58%

Average Price + 42%

Median Price + 52%

2018p sales +6-7%

Prices +4%

Annual Texas Home Sales

16

2017 Change in Home Sales and Median Prices by Metro Areas

4.0%

3.8%

2.6%

3.1%

9.4%

3.6%

3.2%

6.7%

4.2%

4.3%

12.6%

3.5%

9.1%

5.4%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Texas

San Antonio

Houston

Fort Worth

El Paso

Dallas

Austin

Median Sales Price Sales Volume

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Months’ Inventory

Dec-17, 3.1

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan

-00

Ju

l-00

Jan

-01

Ju

l-01

Jan

-02

Ju

l-02

Jan

-03

Ju

l-03

Jan

-04

Ju

l-04

Jan

-05

Ju

l-05

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Ju

l-16

Jan

-17

Ju

l-17

Jan

-18

Ju

l-18

18Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Texas Sales by Price Since 2011

Price Range

Percent Distribution

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$0 - $69,999 15.1 12.7 9.2 7.2 6.1 5.0 4.2

$70,000 - $99,999 12.5 11.3 9.5 8.2 6.8 5.6 4.8

$100,000 - $149,999 23.6 22.8 21.9 20.2 17.7 15.2 12.9

$150,000 - $199,999 17.5 18.5 19.7 20.3 20.7 20.6 19.7

$200,000 - $249,999 9.8 10.8 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.6 16.6

$250,000 - $299,999 6.9 7.6 8.3 9.1 10.2 11.3 12.2

$300,000 - $399,999 7.1 7.9 9.3 10.5 11.8 13.0 14.5

$400,000 - $499,999 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.7

$500,000 - $749,999 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.4

$750,000 - $999,999 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4

$1,000,000 + 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4

Source: TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2011

69%2017

42%

30% 55%

14,273

16,186

43,484

66,155

55,754

41,074

48,770

22,648

18,147

4,838

4,687

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

Sales

Texas 2017 Sales and EoY Months Inventory by Price

20

3.4

3.3

2.3

2.1

2.3

3.0

3.6

4.3

5.2

7.5

10.3

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

$0 - $69,999

$70,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,999

$200,000 - $249,999

$250,000 - $299,999

$300,000 - $399,999

$400,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 +

MOI

Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

4.3%

4.8%

12.9%

19.7%

16.6%

12.2%

14.5%

6.7%

5.4%

1.4%

1.4%

Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price: 20% Down

1,637

877

703

665

587

571

946

692

1,114

626

532

586

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000

Thousands of Households

Number of Owner-Occupied Units

Households and Percent of HH

17.2%

9.2%

7.4%

7.0%

6.2%

6.0%

9.9%

7.3%

11.7%

6.6%

20% down; 4.15% interest; 35%

qualifying ratio; and 6% taxes,

insurance & utilities5.6%

6.1%

~41% of Texas HHs cannot afford

home priced > $150,000;

~53% not >$200,000

Median Income of $56,565

can afford home priced at

$185,605; effective 3.28x

Source: 2016 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University


1,753

922

722

678

617

559

924

730

1,060

542

453

576

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000


18.4%

9.7%

7.6%

7.1%

6.5%

5.9%

9.7%

7.7%

11.1%

5.7%




6.0%



~55% not > $200,000

Median Income of

$56,565 can afford home

priced at $175,981;

effective 3.11x



1,810

945

735

682

632

553

913

749

1,013

520

413

571

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

<$70,000

$70,000-$99,999

$100,000-$124,999

$125,000-$149,999

$150,000-$174,999

$175,000-$199,999

$200,000-$249,999

$250,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

>$750,000


19.0%

9.9%

7.7%

7.2%

6.6%

5.8%

9.6%

7.9%

10.6%

5.5%




6.0%



~56% not > $200,000

Median Income of $56,565

can afford home priced at

$171,534; effective 3.03x


Average Number of Texas Households That Cannot Afford a Home Price Increase of

$1,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000$7

5,0

00

$8

0,0

00

$8

5,0

00

$9

0,0

00

$9

5,0

00

$1

00,0

00

$1

05,0

00

$1

10,0

00

$1

15,0

00

$1

20,0

00

$1

25,0

00

$1

30,0

00

$1

35,0

00

$1

40,0

00

$1

45,0

00

$1

50,0

00

$1

55,0

00

$1

60,0

00

$1

65,0

00

$1

70,0

00

$1

75,0

00

$1

80,0

00

$1

85,0

00

$1

90,0

00

$1

95,0

00

$2

00,0

00

$2

05,0

00

$2

10,0

00

$2

15,0

00

$2

20,0

00

$2

25,0

00

$2

50,0

00

$3

00,0

00

$3

50,0

00

$4

00,0

00

$4

50,0

00

$5

00,0

00

$5

50,0

00

$6

00,0

00

$6

50,0

00

$7

00,0

00

$7

50,0

00

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

useh

old

s

Home Price Intervals




insurance & utilities

Average Number of Households Unable to Afford a $1,000 Price Increase

Home Price Intervals

Average Number of HH Per

$1,000 Price Increase

$50,000-$100,000 28,449

$100,000-$150,000 27,362

$150,000-$200,000 23,156

$200,000-$250,000 19,213

$250,000-$300,000 16,169

$300,000-$500,000 9,726

$500,000-$750,000 2,130

Average thru $250,000 25,315

Overall Average 21,358



insurance & utilities


Texas & US Housing Affordability Indexes

1.74

1.58

1.69 1.68

1.811.77

1.68

1.54

1.45

1.59

1.88

1.96

2.04

2.15

1.93

1.74 1.76

1.66

1.54

1.38 1.38

1.451.43 1.41

1.34

1.23

1.10 1.11

1.33

1.771.80

1.91

1.99

1.77

1.66 1.66 1.65

1.46

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TEXAS US


Texas is fast losing it’s

competitive housing

advantage

Measuring Affordable Housing

Measuring Affordable Housing:

Demand and Supply at the

Local Level:

Austin/Travis County Case Study on

Affordability

Affordable Price and Rent by Median HH Income Cohorts

• What is an “affordable” unit?• Owner-occupied units:

Price-to-income ratio of 3.33

• Renter-occupied units:

Rent-to-income ratio of 35%

Source: American Community Survey and REC Estimates

2015 Median Household Income Travis County = $65,269City of Austin = $62,250

Travis County City of Austin

Income Cohorts Income Distribution

Price Range of “Affordable”

Rent Range of“Affordable” Income Distribution

Price Range of“Affordable”

Rent Range of “Affordable”

0-30% MHI $0 $19,581 $0 - $65,205 $0 - $571 $0 $18,675 $0 - $62,188 $0 - $545

>30-60% MHI $19,582 $39,161 $65,206 -$130,406

$572 - $1,142 $18,676 $37,350 $62,189 -$124,376

$546 - $1,089

>60-80% MHI $39,162 $52,215 $130,407 -$173,876

$1,143 - $1,523 $37,351 $49,800 $124,377 -$165,834

$1,090 -$1,453

>80-120% MHI

$52,216 $78,323 $173,877 -$260,816

$1,524 - $2,284 $49,801 $74,700 $165,835 -$248,751

$1,454 -$2,179

>120-140% MHI

$78,324 $91,377 $260,817 -$304,285

$2,285 - $2,665 $74,701 $87,150 $248,752 -$290,210

$2,180 -$2,542

>140% MHI $91,378 - >$304,285 >$2,665 $87,151 - >$290,210 >$2,542

Sources: 2015 American Community Survey and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

REC Estimate of Distribution of “Affordable” Owner- and Renter-Occupied Units in 2015

Travis County City of Austin

Income Cohorts

“Affordable” Owner-OccupiedUnits (2015)

“Affordable” Renter-OccupiedUnits (2015)

Total “Affordable” Occupied Housing Units (2015)

“Affordable” Housing Units as a Percentageof Total Stock (2015)

“Affordable” Owner-OccupiedUnits (2015)

“Affordable” Renter-OccupiedUnits (2015)

Total “Affordable” Occupied Housing Units (2015)

“Affordable” Housing Units as a Percentageof Total Stock (2015)

0-30%

MHI10,186 20,247 30,433 6.8% 5,388 15,035 20,423 5.6%

>30-60%

MHI18,819 84,734 103,553 23.2% 9,589 75,381 84,970 23.3%

>60-80%

MHI23,391 67,556 90,947 20.4% 13,248 61,787 75,035 20.5%

>80-120%

MHI50,699 37,479 88,178 19.8% 36,685 41,446 78,131 21.4%

>120-

140%

MHI

22,855 4,344 27,199 6.1% 18,333 5,646 23,979 6.6%

>140%

MHI101,963 4,069 106,032 23.7% 78,594 3,761 82,355 22.6%

227,913 218,429 446,342 100% 161,837 203,056 364,893 100%

Source: American Community Survey and REC Estimates

Projected Housing to Meet Affordability Needs: Travis Co.

Income Cohorts

Price Range of “Affordable”

Price-to-income ratio

of 3.33

Rent Range of

“Affordable”Rent-to-

income ratio of 35%

# of HHs in the

Income Cohort(2015)

# of “Affordable”

Occupied Housing Units

by Income Cohort (2015)

Level of (Under) or Oversupply

in 2015

Projected #of

Households by 2025

Change in # of Occupied

Housing Units to Meet

“Affordability” of Each Income

Cohort by 2025

0-30% MHI $0 - $65,205 $0 - $571 53,184 30,433 (22,751) 71,266 40,833

>30-60% MHI

$65,206 -$130,406

$572 -$1,142

77,253 103,553 26,300 103,519 (34)

>60-80% MHI

$130,407 -$173,876

$1,143 -$1,523

48,038 90,947 42,909 64,371 (26,576)

>80-120% MHI

$173,877 -$260,816

$1,524 -$2,284

80,469 88,178 7,709 107,828 19,650

>120-140% MHI

$260,817 -$304,285

$2,285 -$2,665

30,066 27,199 (2,867) 40,288 13,089

>140% MHI >$304,285 >$2,665 157,332 106,032 (51,300) 210,826 104,794

446,342 446,342 - 598,098 151,756

Sources: American Community Survey and REC Estimates; Owner-occupied household income distribution in 2025 is the same as in 2015.

Texas SF Building Permits

38,233

46,209

59,543

69,96470,45270,421

83,13282,228

99,912101,928108,782

111,915

122,913

137,493

151,384

166,203163,032

120,366

81,107

68,23068,17067,254

81,926

93,478

103,045

105,448106,511

115,262

125,636

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7e

201

8p

Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

2015 +2.3%

2016 +1.0%

2017e +8.4%

2018p +9%

1990-2016 average 95,529/year

Texas MF Building Permits

8,96210,2989,514

15,545

32,23734,68435,720

43,794

56,918

44,716

32,620

38,427

42,40943,081

39,796

44,431

53,894

58,542

49,897

17,375

21,504

32,260

56,40656,644

67,319

69,995

59,34256,854

55,149

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7e

201

8p

Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

1995-2016 average 45,444/year

Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes

Jan 2000=100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan

-00

Ju

l-00

Jan

-01

Ju

l-01

Jan

-02

Ju

l-02

Jan

-03

Ju

l-03

Jan

-04

Ju

l-04

Jan

-05

Ju

l-05

Jan

-06

Ju

l-06

Jan

-07

Ju

l-07

Jan

-08

Ju

l-08

Jan

-09

Ju

l-09

Jan

-10

Ju

l-10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-11

Jan

-12

Ju

l-12

Jan

-13

Ju

l-13

Jan

-14

Ju

l-14

Jan

-15

Ju

l-15

Jan

-16

Ju

l-16

Jan

-17

Ju

l-17

Jan

-18

Ju

l-18


Leading Index

Coincident Index

Total Housing

Permits (12-MMA)

33

What We Have to Look Forward To!

Dr. James P. GainesChief Economist

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Real Estate Center at Texas A&M UniversityFebruary 23, 2018

dr. james p. gaines · 2018-03-26 · dr. james p. gaines chief economist federal reserve bank of...

Documents