dwd’s climate services

20
DWD’s Climate Services Observing – Modelling – Consulting 2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s 1950s

Upload: others

Post on 27-Feb-2022

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

DWD’s Climate ServicesObserving – Modelling – Consulting

2010

s

200

0s

19

90s

1

980s

1970

s

196

0s

19

50s

2

Foreword

Dear readers,

Climate change presents us with great challenges. Extreme weather events and changes in the

climate can cause humanitarian disasters and huge damage to the environment. Decision-makers

in politics, administration and business require meaningful information about the changing

climate and the climate of the future to be able to develop preventive measures against the

consequences of climate change. There is therefore demand for high spatial resolution information

as well as information for specific fields of action, such as water management and health.

The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) regards the provision of climate information as a comprehen-

sive and user-oriented service. The DWD has the biggest climate data collection in the whole of

Germany and offers many years of experience in climate monitoring, climate modelling on

different space and timescales and model result evaluation. The DWD is also well networked with

other scientific institutions at the national and international level and ensures that customers are

given state-of-the-art scientific information.

Besides supplying data and information on various portals, a key aspect of our mission is

communicating directly with and providing consultancy services to our customers. This also helps

enhance users’ capability to use climate data in various areas of application. The DWD also assists

in the development of climate services in other countries, including, in particular, developing

countries.

All these activities take account of the elements for successful climate services recommended by

the Global Framework for Climate Services. Our aim in publishing this brochure is to provide a

readable overview of all the climate services provided by the DWD.

Dr. Paul Becker

Vice-President of the Deutscher Wetterdienst

3

The challenge: Learning to deal with climate change

Human activities contribute significantly to climate change. Long series of temperature measure-

ments depict a warming which, in global terms, affects Germany in particular. The DWD's climate

services help to adapt to climate change as well as possible.

Scientific evidence shows that we are living in an era of climate change. The Earth has warmed by around 0.9°C and Germany even by 1.4°C since the end of the 19th century. Averaged over the whole of Germany, the annual number of hot days on which temperatures peak at 30°C or higher have increased since 1951 from three to nine days. Compared to the long-term average for the 1961 1990 period, both the number of warm years and decadal average temperatures have increased significantly, particularly in the last three decades.

This is caused by human greenhouse-gas emissions. Since the beginning of industrialisation, the concen-tration of carbon dioxide, which is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, has increased by over 40 percent.

One of the greatest challenges of our time is limiting global warming. At the same time, we must also adjust to ongoing and future climate change. This concerns all areas of life, from agriculture and transport infra-structure through to hotter urban climates in the sum-mer.

In addition, we must also help poorer countries to develop climate expertise. Climate change will

become an increasingly important cause of migratory flows, which also affect us in Germany. As a complex global phenomenon climate change presents us with numerous interrelated challenges.

One of the answers: climate servicesStakeholders at all levels require precise information in order to plan and implement adaptation measures in response to climate change. In this context, informa-tion about past and future climate developments plays an important, supportive and in many cases decisive role.

In consequence of this, the Global Framework for Cli-mate Services (GFCS) was created in 2009 on the initi-ative of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC 3).

The DWD participates through its climate services in the national implementation of the GFCS. It has pro-vided climate information for decades. Since WCC 3, efforts have been intensified to improve forecasts and projections, research and modelling initiatives. The availability and quality of climate data have been enhanced.

4

Climate services -five elements for success

The DWD supplies information and expertise for the planning of climate preparedness measures

and runs the offce of the Deutscher limadienst D DD) – both important contributions to

implementing the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS).

The DWD's climate services are guided by the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). They com-prise the following five components:

1. Climate monitoring2. Climate modelling, forecasts, projections, climate impact assessment3. Climate information and data platform4. Communication with users 5. Building climate capacities through international activities.

Climate services involve the retrieval and provision of high-quality observations for the most important climate variables stored in national and internation-al databases. In addition to parameters for the atmo-sphere, oceanic and terrestrial parameters are also important.

Furthermore, information is provided about climate developments in the future for all relevant time and spatial scales, but also about the user-oriented appli-cation of such information. The information results from models, forecasts and projections which take account of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. It also includes risk and vulnerability analyses, evaluations and estimates of climate impacts in various areas. The information is presented using modern graphical tools, e.g. digital maps.

Of particular importance is the provision of data as well as communication and advisory services to users and, linked to this, the building of know-how at their end to make more effective use of climate data for various fields of action.

Facts: Deutscher Wetterdienst• Around 2300 employees• Headquarters in Offenbach, 6 branch offces• 5 regional climate offces providing

consultancy services in the field of climate and environment• Available annual budget: around 190 million

euros Annual productivity:

• Around 14000 advisory statements and expert reports

• Around 15000 climate monitoring products

As of January 2018

5

Networking with other public authoritiesThe DWD has joined forces with other public bodies, institutions and organisations to provide climate services as part of the Deutscher Klimadienst (DKD). The DKD offce is run by the DWD.

The aim of the DKD network is to provide sound information for political, administrative and business decision-makers with the aim of ensuring optimum use of existing climate knowledge. This combination of know-how from different sources may be beneficial in various fields, such as crop protection in agriculture and forestry.

The DWD's climate services play an important role in Germany’s national implementation of the GFCS. They also make a substantial contribution to the implemen-tation of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Cli-mate Change (Deutsche AnpassungsStrategie, DAS).

The DAS identifies 15 fields of action in which options for adaptation to the impacts of climate change are studied systematically. Examples of such fields of action are human health and water management.

◂ Official launch of the Deutscher Klimadienst in October 2015 by (from right to left) Parliamentary State Secretary Peter Bleser (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, BMEL), State Secretary Rainer Bomba (Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infra-structure, BMVI), Parliamentary State Secretary Rita Schwarzelühr-Sutter (Federal Ministry for the Environ-ment, Nature Conservation, Building, BMUB), Dr Paul Becker (DWD Vice-President) and Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian (DWD President).

6

Climate monitoring

Climate monitoring helps to understand the state of the climate system in the past, present and

future. Successful climate monitoring depends on an observing system providing good spatial

coverage and long series of meteorological measurement data. Technology has changed over

time. Where a ground-based observation network was adequate in the past, satellite and radar

remote sensing data are now as important as surface measurements. Data are measured, verified,

combined, evaluated and archived.

The DWD operates Germany's densest meteorological and climatological observing network. Data acquired through it have been

processed over many decades.

What data are measured and how?DWD measurements focus on recording atmo-spheric parameters, such as air temperature, pre-cipitation, wind, air pressure, radiation and sunshine duration. These are complemented by observations of snow cover and albedo, forest fires, soil moisture and phenology, such as the vegetation periods in the bio-sphere. DWD surface stations are increasingly run automatically. The measuring network also includes aircraft measurements and shipboard measuring sites. Radar and satellite remote sensing data are becoming increasingly important as demand grows for informa-tion with very high spatial resolution. Additional data are derived from computer modelling to fill the tempo-ral and spatial gaps existing in the data coverage.

Are the measurement data verified?Data quality and compliance with recognised inter-national climate monitoring principles (e.g. GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles) are very important. All the meteorological data recorded by the DWD are checked for plausibility and completeness in several steps. The DWD runs climate reference stations which enable it to analyse and document impacts arising from the introduction of new sensors or observing systems on the data records.

▴ Radar sites for the measurement of precipitation in Germany. Radar measurements are made in radii of 150 km. The RADOLAN technique combines radar data with data from automatic online precipitation stations to obtain a better, more complete description of precipita-tion conditions.

DWD weather & climate observations

2 observatories182 staffed and automatic weather & climate stations18 weather radar sitesUse of meteorological satellites9 upper-air stations4 radar wind profilers/RASS1761 precipitation measuring sites434 shipborne measuring stations4 marine upper-air stations1149 phenological observation sites As of January 2018

7

▸ Further information:German Climate Observing SystemsGCOS inventory report.

More precise and area covering analysesThe measured values from surface stations and remote sensing systems are used together to provide a better picture of climatic phenomena. By combining data from various sources, the DWD strives to provide descriptions of climate develop-ments which are more accurate and geographically inclusive – in particular trends, deviations from long-term mean and extreme values. Re-analyses are an increasingly important source for this. This new approach deploys numerical weather models of the kind used for weather forecasts. The weather model enables millions of largely grid-point data to be converted into a comprehensive three-dimensional description of the state of the atmosphere at a particular point in time. Data sets such as these constitute an important information base for many fields of action, such as in the energy sector.

The way in which the DWD evaluates such data also depends on the interests of users. The DWD passes its data sets on to national and international climate observation networks while, at the same time, using information from cross-border data centres for analysis purposes.

Examples of this are the European and global maps with solar radiation data from satellite-based climate monitoring for the planning of photovoltaic installa-tions. Another example is information about the future probability of extreme precipitation in Germany for flood protection planning and the construction industry.

▴ Combination of different climate monitoring methods.

▴ The DWD operates a high-performance computing system for computation-intensive data processing, modelling and forecasting.

▸ The DWD's climate reference station at Hohenpeissenberg. Measurements made at climate reference stations are used in the DWD to compare the measuring equipment used (operationally) to date and innovative, automatic sensors. This is important in order to assure the quality of the DWD's climatological observation series and to verify the impact of new measurement techniques on climato-logical issues against the background of climate change. Climate reference stations are representative for their geographic and clima-tological environment.

8

Climate predictionsClimate predictions compute the development of the future climate within a timescale of weeks, months or decades. Climate prediction models are based on his-torical climate developments. Nonetheless, it is not possible to capture the state of the climate system perfectly, particularly as it is subject to chaotic behav-iour. The uncertainty and reliability of climate pre-dictions are quantified by generating an ensemble of solutions with slightly varying initial conditions. This results in different predictions for the relevant peri-od in the future. The evaluation of such an ensemble enables conclusions to be drawn about the spread and probability of occurrence of climatic events.

Climate projectionsClimate projections compute impacts on the future climate from periods of several decades to over 100 years using ‘scenarios’. These scenarios, which reach from a climate mitigation scenario (RCP2.6) through to a scenario of unchecked and unchanged economic growth (the business-as-usual scenario, RCP8.5), are based on different assumptions regarding future global economic developments.

From the model to climate impact evaluation

The DWD publishes monthly and seasonal forecasts as well as multi-decade climate projections. Seasonal and

decadal climate predictions cover periods which are relevant for planners and decision-makers in politics,

business and society while remaining subject to intense research and ongoing development.

Early planning of measures to adapt to climate change requires information regarding future

climate changes. Statements about the climate of the future are made on the basis of climate

models which take account of the components of the climate system and the links and interactions

between them. Impact models simulate the influence of climate change on the environment.

▴ Temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 Region) relative to 1981–2010. While the median model results predict an El Niño event, the "plume" illustrates the spread of the results from the GCFS ensemble members.Source: www.dwd.de/seasonalforecasts

The model calculations take account of the impact of various greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate. The range of results for each scenario can be shown by using multiple results from different models, known as a "multi-model ensemble".

▸ Further information: DWD brochure ‘Climate predictions and climate projections’www.dwd.de/climateforecastsandprojections

9

Regional climate modelsClimate models simulate the physical processes in the climate system on a three-dimensional grid. The spa-tial resolution is given by the distance between the grid points. With more than 100 km, global models are coarse. For this reason, regional climate models with a higher spatial resolution (1–20 km) are used to describe the different regional characteristics of cli-mate change. This enables different landscapes to be captured more accurately.

Impact models and climate impact evaluations The findings obtained from regionalisation can be used in so-called impact models to analyse the possi-ble effects of climate change at the local level and for specific sectors.

Impact models allow, for example, the computation of biometeorological, urban climate and agricultural parameters.

Numerous parameters for agriculture, forestry and soil protection can be derived from the standard parameters such as air temperature and precipitation totals. This helps to identify the potentials and risks for agriculture. These include, for example, changes in the water budget, growth conditions and pest poten-tials.

In the field of medicine and health, impact models can be used to evaluate present and future human stress-es. The objective is to protect risk groups by providing forecasts and warnings relating to heat, cold, UV radi-ation, pollen flight or fine particles.

Urban climate models also play a role in this context. They show, for example, thermal stresses in cities and provide information about the increase in summer days, hot days and tropical nights to be expected in the distant future.

The DWD also develops and runs regional climate models for projections as well as impact models for investigating specific practice-related issues.

This takes place in close co-operation with partners in research and science and in

accordance with the needs of numerous users.

▴ Wiesbaden-Mainz region: Annual mean number of hot days in the period 1971–2000 (left) and the median of an ensemble of 17 climate projections for the anticipated number of hot days per year in the period 2031–2060 (right). These results were obtained by applying the high-resolution urban climate model MUKLIMO_3. Hot days have a maximum temperature of at least 30 °C.

10

The portals

The DWD's high-quality climate information and data platforms lay the foundations for

effcient climate services. The DWD offers easy access to climate data and understandably

prepared information through various online portals. The Deutscher Wetterdienst Act and

international arrangements allow most of the climate data and information to be made

available for free.

Important climate information from public bodies The KliVO portal provides background information and services for the implementation of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change. Appro-priate climate preparedness services (climate infor-mation from the DWD and other authorities as well as services designed to support adaptation to cli-mate change) can be filtered and selected on this por-tal according to individual needs. Selection options include groups of users, steps in the climate change planning cycle, climate variables and climate impacts.

How can I access the data directly? The DWD's Climate Data Center (CDC) provides open access to a wide variety of measured and derived cli-mate data. It provides observations from the DWD's observing network as well as, for example, radar and satellite-based products or observations of plant growth phases and international data. The DWD is continuously expanding the range of data it offers on the CDC. One key focus is on opening up the DWD’s entire wealth of historical data back to the early days of observations by digitising the records.

The data collections can be accessed via an interac-tive portal or via direct technical interfaces. In addi-tion, the DWD is continuing to develop further access options through modern technical interfaces such as, for example, Geo Web Services..

www.klivoportal.de

www.dwd.de/cdc

11

Climate data well illustrated The DWD's German Climate Atlas is an information platform which offers climate data in user-friend-ly formats. The data can easily be navigated and are regularly updated. The Climate Atlas portal contains a huge amount of information on climate change.

Among other things, the DWD shows possible scenar-ios for future climate development together with the earlier and current climate. Comparisons between past, current and future climate conditions clear-ly show to what extent mean climate parameters have changed already and in what direction they are expected to change in the future. Regional differences are shown in maps. Results from an ensemble of cli-mate models are used to show the range of potential climate changes.

Joint portal of German climate service providersThe DWD operates the German Climate Portal as a network of over 40 other institutions. This portal sup-ports the nationwide networking of climate service providers with users of climate information from the federal states, various sectors and branches of indus-try. The German Climate Portal provides access to the combined climate expertise of its partners.

What else is there?The DWD also provides a multitude of different information and services relating to climate and environment on its website at www.dwd.de/climate, both for the general public and for professional users in the fields of politics, administration, business, education and science.

www.dwd.de/germanclimateatlas.de

www.deutsches-klimaportal.de

www.dwd.de/climate

www.dwd.de/inkas

www.dwd.de/nationalclimatereport

www.dwd.de/agriculture

www.dwd.de/solarenergy

www.dwd.de/seasonalforecasts

(Selection of short links)

12

Communication and advice

Besides providing climate data and information on the online platforms presented in this brochure,

the DWD also communicates with various users and professional customers on individual

climatological issues. The DWD’s Climate Offces offer personal advice at various locations.

Who are our customers?The DWD provides climate services for various groups of customers. Important users include public authori-ties and other agencies and bodies of the German Federation and the federal states. These include in particular authorities and institutions actively engaged in the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change. They conduct planning projects in various sectors, such as developing the transport infrastructure or flood and coastal protection. Pur-suant to its statutory mandate the DWD supports the Federation, federal states and local authorities in theirs civil, disaster and environmental protection tasks.

Business and industry – particularly those branch-es which are especially affected by climate change, such as agriculture and forestry, the health sector, air pollution control, transport and construction, water management and energy – all have a great need for climate information. In addition, players involved in urban and regional planning, education, science and justice as well as the media and the general public are also interested in the DWD's climate services.

Meeting the need for different types of information The DWD's expert and consulting activities vary depending on the topics under focus in the political and business context. The DWD is able to draw on a variety of climate data and information sources, mobilise interdisciplinary expertise and provide valuable and useful information as well as recommen-dations for action.

As Germany's national meteorological service, the DWD holds a unique archive of climate data and

has decades of experience in the field of applied meteorology and climatology. It is also integrated

in all important national and international scientific networks. It brings its established

expertise to bear on its climate consultancy and advisory services for policy-makers.

13

Parameters relevant to specific fields of action on var-ious time and spatial scales are obtained from the available basic data about the atmosphere, ocean and land surface and communicated to planners and deci-sion-makers in politics and business.

The DWD initiates special studies in partnership with cities in order, for example, to illustrate the chang-es in heat stress which climate change is expected to cause or to detect small-scale wind systems.

Use of flexible communication channelsThe DWD provides general and ready-for-use informa-tion and statistics for the public at large and profes-sional users on the websites and platforms already referred to. Users can also access specific technical publications on the DWD website at www.dwd.de. The DWD's online services are rounded off by contribu-tions in social media (e.g. Twitter @DWD_klima) and heat warning and pollen flight apps.

The DWD's services also include climatological prod-ucts and advisory services tailored to customers' specific requirements. Besides face-to-face commu-nication and on-site consulting, the DWD also holds conferences, colloquiums and workshops which play an important role in publicising the services it pro-vides. The communication of know-how is especially important in this context as it enables users to inter-pret climate data correctly and use them in their spe-cial area of work.

▸ DWD customers include cities and local authorities as well as players and planners from various sectors and branches.

▴ Climate and environment consultancy location map. Contact data are provided on pages 18–19..

On-site climate and environment consultancyThe individual consulting services provided by the DWD's Climate Offices is a central climate service. In addition to the Central Climate Office in Offen-bach, customer-oriented climate and environmental consultancy is also offered by the Regional Climate Offices in Hamburg, Essen, Freiburg, Munich and Potsdam.

Specific consultancy services are available in the fields of air hygiene and human biometeorology (provided by DWD’s Branch Office in Freiburg) and agrometeorology (provided by DWD’s Branch Offices in Braunschweig and Weihenstephan). The headquarters in Offenbach and the Branch Office Berlin-Buch are responsible for hydrometeorologi-cal consulting.

14

Specific capabilities and know-how are required for the development and professional use of climate services. The DWD has built up important capaci-

ties in the fields of climate observation and climate monitoring, climate predictions and climate projec-tions, impact models, assessment of model results and consulting for various user sectors. The DWD

also supports the establishment and development of climate services at the international level through technical infrastructure, its participation in inter-

national bodies and networks and collaboration with developing countries.

There is a demand for modern climate services in many countries – not only in developing countries, notably in Africa, but also in emerging economies in Asia, South America and Eastern Europe. The DWD helps these countries to acquire climate expertise and to build up and expand their climate service capaci-ties.

This support initially concentrates on establishing a functioning meteorological observing system and the associated data management and on providing opera-tional support. The second step is to build up climate services, including producing forecasts and climate diagnoses for special areas of application.

Expansion of global climate competence

Climate change is global. International collaboration is mutually beneficial. Developing countries

in particular are massively affected by climate change. The DWD is helping these countries to set

up their own climate services.

15

Development co-operation activities The DWD has helped to set up and expand meteo-rological services in developing countries over many years. Training events at the national and interna- tional levels as well as the training of guest scientists and special funding projects in which DWD is a part-ner all play an important role.

A key focus of current development co-operation is on the two projects IKI-CSI and PrAda. In the past, the DWD has participated in the SASSCAL project (fur-ther information right). For example, the DWD has also trained scientists from South America in agrome-teorology or African scientists in seasonal forecasting. Similar fellowships are also possible for the training in satellite-based climate monitoring.

▴ Agriculture in Madagascar. Agriculture is an important livelihood activity for a large part of the population of the island state of Madagascar, which is why it is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

▴ Village in Lesotho, southern Africa

SASSCAL - Southern African Science Service Cen-tre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Manage-mentIn the SASSCAL project funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the DWD has helped set up a regional climate compe-tence centre in southern Africa. The co-operation focused primarily on the installation of database systems for climate data for the meteorological services in Angola, Botswana and Zambia. One important aspect of the project was securing his-torical records of climate data and their applica-tion-oriented processing.

IKI-CSI – Improved Climate Services for Infrastruc-ture Investments The CSI project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the Federal Ministry for the Envi-ronment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). It is run by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) and involves 13 developing countries. The DWD is a co-operation partner. The project supports the ‘Climate Services’ provided by meteorological ser-vices and public authorities to help handle climate risks and infrastructure planning.

PrAda – Adaptation of Agricultural Value Chains to Climate ChangeA co-operation project with the DWD is under preparation for the PrAda project which is being carried out by the GIZ on behalf of the Feder-al Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Devel-opment (BMZ). Capacities for the collection and processing of agrometeorological data are to be developed in co-operation with the national mete-orological service of Madagascar, DGM. The aim is to help the DGM by providing it with adapted agro-meteorological models and support for the produc-tion of seasonal forecasts and evaluation of climate projections for specific agricultural purposes. The purpose of these activities is to improve access to agrometeorological and agronomic consultan-cy services. It is anticipated that this support will increase the performance of players in Madagas-car in selected agricultural value chains which are especially vulnerable to climate change.

Examples of development co-operation projects

16

Results from climate projections for Germany

Anticipated changes in the future climate can be described using climate models and on the basis

of scenarios. For this reason, the DWD produces new climate projections at regular intervals with

updated scenarios and improved models.

Future temperature changesA further increase in temperatures in Germany can almost certainly be expected. The modelled increase in near-surface temperature for the 2021–2050 time period ranges from approx. 1.1 °C to 1.5 °C compared with the 1971–2000 reference period. The difference between the changes projected for the various cli-mate scenarios (from a moderate emissions scenario, i.e. the climate mitigation scenario RCP2.6, through to the business-as-usual scenario RCP8.5) is still small.

Modelled temperature changes through to the end of the century show clear differences from the middle of

the century. On the basis of the climate mitigation scenario which focuses on emissions reduction, an increase in temperature of 1.2 °C may be expected. Warming under the conditions of the business-as-usu-al scenario is projected around 4.0 °C, with the range of results varying between 2.8 °C and 5.2 °C. This would mean considerable risks for the environment.

It is expected that this projected mean warming will be accompanied by a change in the extreme values pattern.

Seasonal mean temperature in Germany and expected changes

Period 1971-2000 2021-2050 2021-2050 2071-2100 2071-2100

Scenario Climate mitigation Business-as-usual Climate mitigation Business-as-usual

Spring 8.1 °C +0.9 °C +1.3 °C +1.0 °C +3.3 °C

Summer 16.6 °C +1.1 °C +1.6 °C +1.3 °C +4.2 °C

Autumn 8.7 °C +1.2 °C +1.7 °C +1.1 °C +4.2 °C

Winter 0.8 °C +1.2 °C +1.5 °C +1.4 °C +4.1 °C

Year 8.6 °C +1.1 °C +1.5 °C +1.2 °C +4.0 °C

Data sources: DWD (past), EURO-CORDEX + ReKliEs-De Ensemble (future, as of 31.12.2017)

17

Changes in precipitation in the futureA significant change in mean annual total precipita-tion in the periods 2021–2050 and 2071-2100 is not expected for Germany. An increase in mean annual precipitation of 2 % is projected for the period 2021-2050. There are no recognisable differences between the scenarios. When looking at the business-as-usu-al scenario, the projections also show only a small change in annual precipitation in Germany over the long-term period 2071–2100, although the results of each of the individual model calculations vary very strongly between –22 % and +26 %.

Seasonal variationsWhile the projected mean warming is similar for all seasons, more recent model calculations show strong differences in seasonal precipitation. Increases in win-ter precipitation of +6 % to +7 % are projected for the short-range 2021–2050 planning horizon. Precipitation is expected to decrease by -4 % to -5 % in summer. The longer-term 2071–2100 planning horizon and the business-as-usual scenario entail a pronounced reduc-tion in precipitation -14 % in summer and an increase of 16 % during the winter months.

Period 1971-2000 2021-2050 2021-2050 2071-2100 2071-2100

Scenario Climate mitigation Business-as-usual Climate mitigation Business-as-usual

Spring 179 mm +5% +5% +3% +6%

Summer 234 mm -4% -5% -4% -14%

Autumn 191 mm +1% +2% +1% +1%

Winter 183 mm +6% +7% +3% +16%

Year 788 mm +2% +2% 0% +1%

Seasonal mean precipitation in Germany and expected changes

Data sources: DWD (past), EURO-CORDEX + ReKliEs-De Ensemble (future, as of 31.12.2017)

The DWD advises and supports the users of climate data on issues relating to adaptation to climate change.

Our services comprise:• Consultancy services on all issues relating to climate change• Statistical evaluation of climate data• Provision of climate data and products (for example through the DWD Climate Data Center)Related inquiries can be sent by e-mail to the DWD's Central Climate Offceat: [email protected]

18

Presence throughout the countryOur contacts and regional offces

Deutscher WetterdienstClimate and Environment Consultancy

Germany, nationwide:

Zentrales KlimabüroFrankfurter Straße 13563067 Offenbach

0 69 / 80 62 - 29 12 [email protected]

Bremen, Hamburg, Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, abroad and oceans:

Regionales Klimabüro HamburgPostfach 30 11 9020304 Hamburg

0 69 / 80 62 - 60 22 [email protected]

Berlin, Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia:

Regionales Klimabüro PotsdamGüterfelder Damm 87-9114532 Stahnsdorf

0 69 / 80 62 - 54 44 [email protected],

Hesse, Rhineland-Palati-nate, Saarland

Regionales Klimabüro EssenWallneyer Straße 1045133 Essen

0 69 / 80 62 - 68 88 [email protected]

BavariaRegionales Klimabüro MünchenPostfach 20 06 2080006 München

0 69 / 80 62 - 92 25 [email protected]

Baden-Württemberg

Regionales Klimabüro FreiburgStefan-Meier-Straße 479104 Freiburg

0 69 / 80 62 - 96 03 [email protected]

MünchenFreibung

Essen

Hamburg

Berlin

MünchenFreibung

Offenbach

19

Hydrometeorology

HydrometeorologyFrankfurter Straße 13563067 Offenbach

0 69 / 80 62 - 29 80 [email protected]

Branch Offce Berlin-BuchLindenberger Weg 2413125 Berlin

0 69 / 80 62 - 55 70 [email protected]

Agrometeorology

AgrarmeteorologyFrankfurter Straße 13563067 Offenbach

0 69 / 80 62 - 23 01 [email protected]

Agrometeorological Research Centre Bundesallee 5038116 Braunschweig

0 531 / 2 52 05 - 39 [email protected]

Branch OffceWeihenstephanAlte Akademie Nr. 16Weihenstephaner Berg85354 Freising

0 8161 / 5 37 69 - 0 [email protected]

Deutscher Klima-dienst (DKD)

DKD Geschäftsstelle Frankfurter Straße 13563067 Offenbach

[email protected]

Human biometeo-rology

Research Centre Human Biometeorology Stefan-Meier-Straße 479104 Freiburg

0 69 / 80 62 - 96 30 [email protected]

Deutscher WetterdienstGeschäftsbereich Klima und UmweltFrankfurter Straße 13563067 Offenbach/MainGERMANYTel: +49 (0) 69 / 8062 - 0E-Mail: [email protected]

Go to www.dwd.de to access our pages on

Air temperature | Annual average temperature anomalies in Germany for 1881–2017 relative to the 1961–1990 base period

Graphical representation per decade: number of warm years and decadal averages have risen significantly in the last 3 decades in particular.

Each little map shows the mean temperature anomaly for the corres-ponding year, shades of blue for annual means below, shades of red for values above the long-term averages.

The bars show the decadal averages of temperature anomalies, narrow bars for small and wide bars for large anomalies. The colour indicates the direction of the temperature anomaly.

Publishing details Text, editing and layout: Central Climate Office

Picture credits:

DWD: 2, 5 top, 14; 5 bottom, 13 bottom (Michael Kügler), 7 (Ulf Köhler)Fotolia.de: 18 top (Christian Malsch), 19 top 2nd from right (Makuba) MEV: 18/19 (Jonas Krüger); Panthermedia.net: 12 top (weerapat), middle (Thomas Kakalik), bottom (Klaus Raab), 13 top (Ikonoklast), middle (Monika Wendorf), 18 bottom left (Dominik Zwingmann)Piqs: 19 top left (M. Oelhaf); Pixabay: 2, 15 top, 15 bottom, 16, 17 left, 17 right, 19 top 2nd from left, 19 bottom right

Graphic credits: DWD (unless otherwise specified)

DW

D 1

. Aufl

age

200/

09.

18