e-fulfilment & logistics centers · growth on-line sales and required logistics space...
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E-fulfilment & Logistics Centers
Buck Consultants International
Postbus 1456
6501 BL Nijmegen
Telnr : 024 379 0222
Mobiel : 065 337 2612
Fax : 024 379 0120
E-mail : [email protected]
PropertyEU Forum
Provada Amsterdam, June 7, 2016
René Buck
CEO
Buck Consultants International
Buck Consultants International, 2016 2
Industrial & logistics space take-up – main European markets,
millions sq m
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany UK France Benelux CEE*
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, 2016
* Includes Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Ukraine
Buck Consultants International, 2016 3
European industrial investment market in 2015, €8bn
37%
20%
12%
4%
9%
8%
8% 2%
United Kingdom
Germany
Nordics
CEE
France
Benelux
Southern Europe
Rest of Europe
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, 2016
Buck Consultants International, 2016 4
E-fulfilment
Critical success factors in e-commerce
Providing superior customer experience – online as well as in the
delivery: the customer receives what he/she ordered when you
promised
Scalability. Ability to offer a wider range of products and services to a
larger (multi-country, multi-consumer) market
Ability to use online technology efficiently to manage online traffic,
the payment and processing of orders and the whole e-fulfilment
model which includes interfacing with e-fulfilment partners
Understanding that the supply chain is a critical part of the
financially driven Business Model and not the other way around. A
cost effective supply chain should be integrally linked to the cash to
cash order cycle
Buck Consultants International, 2016 5
Growth on-line sales and required logistics space (2015-2020)
Online sales
2015 (Eur bn)
Online sales
(2020 (Eur bn)
Required
logistics space
(m sqm)
CAGR
2015-2020
UK 55 70 1.2 5.0%
Germany 45 68 1.8 8.7%
France 31 53 1.7 11.3%
Spain 8 19 0.8 18.6%
Italy 6 14 0.6 16.9%
Netherlands 6 13 0.5 16.5%
Sweden 4 9 0.4 16.0%
Poland 4 11 0.5 20.0%
Europe 146 243 7.5 10.7%
Source: AXA-IM, 2016
Buck Consultants International, 2016 6
European Logistics Hot Spots
Existing & emerging global logistics hubs
Top 30 existing global hubs (Europe: 9)
Top 20 emerging global hubs (Europe: 9)
Existing global hubs
Emerging global hubs
Source: CBRE, 2016
Buck Consultants International, 2016 7
Top EU logistics hot spots
Source:Prologis, 2015
Buck Consultants International, 2016 8
Demand for logistics real estate in the Netherlands per type of
ownership of property
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rent Buy Source: Bak/NVM, 2016
x 1,000 m2
Buck Consultants International, 2016 9
Availability of logistics real estate in the Netherlands per type
of building
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Existing buildings New contructions
Source: Bak/NVM, 2016
x 1,000 m2
Buck Consultants International, 2016 10
Source:Bak/NVM, 2016
Concentration of logistics real estate per region (2015)
Buck Consultants International, 2016 11
Demand for logistics real estate (2011-2015)
North Netherlands
East Netherlands
Mid Netherlands
West Netherlands
South Netherlands
Source: Bak/NVM, 2016
Buck Consultants International, 2016 12
Investments in logistics real estate in the Netherlands
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bak/NVM, 2016
x 1 mln
Buck Consultants International, 2016 13
Average gross initial yields of business real estate (logistics real
estate + other business space) - best locations
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
West Netherlands South Netherlands East Netherlands North Netherlands
%
Source: DTZ, 2016
Buck Consultants International, 2016 14
XXL warehouses in the Netherlands
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2013 2014 2015 2016
‘XXL’ is used to indicate warehouses larger than 40,000 m²
Looking at the period 2013-2016, BCI has identified 28 new Dutch XXL
warehouses (including announced developments)
Buck Consultants International, 2016 15
Drivers for XXL distribution centers
(R)Etailers Consolidation in the market
Combined DCs for shops and consumers
Omnichannel: product variety + inventory
Larger inventory at warehouse
B2C packaging & shipping space
Returns
Producers Increasingly active in e-commerce
Broad product assortment
Larger scale for latest material handling
technology
Logistics
Service
Providers
Economies of scale
Multitenant
Buck Consultants International, 2016 16
Retailers Producers Logistics Service
Providers
Buck Consultants International, 2016 17
In use
Announced/under construction
Retailer
Producer
Logistical Service Provider
Multitenant
XXL DC-map of
the Netherlands
Source: Buck Consultants International