earthquake exposure risk in south east...
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Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™TM
Earthquake Risk in South East Asia
Mary Lou Zoback
Vice President, Earthquake Risk Applications
sf1906sanjose.mov
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Plate Tectonics of Southeast Asia
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Seismic setting
Located within stable Sunda plate, sandwiched between Java trench to W and S Philippine plate and trench to E.
No large historic quakes in Singapore, 5 quakes with M>5 in Sunda plate between 1964-2000
Largest seismic threat - Java trench and Sumatra fault 300-400 km to the SW, last quake on section directly adjacent in 1861 (M8.5)
Petersen et al., Tectonophysics, 2005
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Did You Feel It?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov
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Singapore earthquake risk
A large event (M>7.8) on Sumatran subduction zone or a M7.5+ eq on Sumatra Fault at distance of ~300 km could generate destructive ground motions in Singapore
Current building design codes based on BS8110 code—no provision for seismic loading
High rise structures most at risk from long period ground motion due to large distant quakes
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Dr. William Holt, State University of New York, Stony Brookhttp://www.unavco.org/research_science/
Major earthquake source zones – Global Strain Rate Map Project
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Population Density
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Hazard exposure (weighted by area affected)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Brunei
Nepal
Myanm
arBhu
tanBan
gales
hLa
osCam
bodia
Vietna
m
India
Philipp
inesInd
ones
iaChin
aTha
iland
Malays
iaTaiw
anS K
orea
Singap
oreJa
pan
Countries (order by GDP per capita)
Haz
ard
expo
sure
inde
x
Earthquake
Volcano
Trop Storm
Flood
Drought
From Munich Re NATHAN web site
Hazard exposure (weighted by area affected)
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Hazard exposure (weighted by area affected)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Brunei
Nepal
Myanm
arBhu
tanBan
gales
hLa
osCam
bodia
Vietna
m
India
Philipp
inesInd
ones
iaChin
aTha
iland
Malays
iaTaiw
anS K
orea
Singap
oreJa
pan
Countries (order by GDP per capita)
Haz
ard
expo
sure
inde
x
Earthquake
Volcano
Trop Storm
Flood
Drought
From Munich Re NATHAN web site
Hazard exposure (weighted by area affected)
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Seismic Hazard with historic events M>7USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973 - Present
Rectangular Grid Search Latitude Range: -11 to 45 Longitude Range: 67 to 152 Magnitude Range: 7 to 10 Depth Range: 0 to 100 Number of Earthquakes: 161
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Significant Worldwide Earthquakes (2150 B.C. - 1994 A.D.)
Rectangular Grid Search Latitude Range: -11 to 45 Longitude Range: 67 to 152 Magnitude Range: 7 to 10 Depth Range: 0 to 100 Number of Earthquakes: 238
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Global Seismic Hazard Program (GSHAP)
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Population Density
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Predicted Fatalities for 10% in 50 yrs
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Brun
eiNep
alMya
nmar
Bhut
anBa
ngale
sh
Laos
Cambo
diaVi
etnam
India
Philip
pines
Indon
esia
China
Thail
and
Malays
iaTa
iwan
S Kor
eaSi
ngap
ore
Japa
n
Countries (sorted by GDP per capita)
Num
ber o
f fat
aliti
es (f
or In
dia
styl
e co
nstr
uctio
n)
Fatalities for 10% in 50 yrs ***
Predicted fatalities - 10% in 50 yrs hazard
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Predicted Fatalities at 10% in 50 yrs exceedance (India construction)
0.00
3.00
6.00
9.00
12.00
15.00
Brunei
Nepal
Myanm
arBhu
tanBan
gales
h
Laos
Cambo
diaViet
nam
India
Philipp
inesInd
ones
iaChin
aTha
iland
Malays
iaTaiw
anS K
orea
Singap
oreJa
pan
Countries (sorted by GDP per capita)
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
Predicted fatalities per capita
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Earthquake Risk – Other Hazards
Triggered fires – Fire following earthquake,
– 1906 San Francisco “Firestorm”, densely packed woodframe buildings, failure of water system due to liquefaction
Liquefaction – water-saturated sandy soils, particularly land fill, ground turns to “quicksand”
– ports, coastal roadways, airports
Landslides – strong shaking trigger for near unstable slopes
Tsunamis hazard
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25 December, 2005
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Tsunamis Hazard
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USGS
SHAKECASTMay 27, 2006
• 5782 dead
• 36,000 injured
• 358,000 houses damaged
• Almost all larger hotels affected, many closed temporarily
Sign up at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov